One month ago, as the 2023 season was about to start, Packers fans had a variety of opinions as to what kind of team this would turn out to be.  The optimists were predicting playoffs and even division championships.  The pessimists were forecasting a dismal four win season and a high draft position.  Others were somewhere in between.  We’ve reached just short of the quarter pole for the season so let’s take a look at what the Packers have actually been thus far.  All stats are from Pro Football Reference and ESPN. 

The most important stat of course is the won-loss record.  Green Bay currently stands at 2-2.  There are ten teams in the league with better records.  There are eleven teams with the same record, and ten teams with a worse record.  In the NFC six teams have a better record, four have the same, and five have worse marks.  That would place the Packers squarely in the middle of the league in terms of record.  If the playoffs were to begin today the Packers would not make it, by virtue of losing a tiebreaker to the Falcons based on head-to-head competition. 

What about Jordan Love?  What are the early returns on the Green Bay offense?  Currently the team ranks in the middle or lowest one-third of the league in most categories, although they are tied for tenth in the most critical area, which is points scored.  The Packers are 27th in total yards, 20th in yards per play, 27th in first downs, and 19th in passing yards.  It should come as no shock that the team is among the worst in the NFL at running the ball, ranking 30th in rushing yards and 29th in yards per carry (3.3).  Only the Bengals and Raiders have fewer yards on the ground. 

Jordan Love is 15th in passing yards, 19th in yards per pass, tied for 5th in touchdown passes and 19th in passer rating.  In other words, he’s middle of the pack.  Remember before the season some pundits were predicting that if Love was only just average, the Packers would be a playoff team?  Well so far, he’s been about as average as you can get.  So maybe that bodes well.  One area the first year signal caller needs to improve is completion percentage, where he ranks a dismal 34th. 

There are two major factors hindering the Packers from finishing higher in offensive categories.  One is injuries.  You could argue that, Jordan Love aside, the five best players on the unit have missed time.  Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins and Zach Tom have all been hurt to varying degrees.  The good news is all but Bakhtiari, who is on injured reserve, have a chance to be ready for Las Vegas on Monday night.   

The other major problem is penalties.  Green Bay ranks fifth in the league in number of offensive penalties.  They’ve had 31 of them costing a total of 251 yards.  And that only takes into account the ones which were accepted. 

If you were hoping this would be the year the Joe Barry defense shows marked improvement, that has not yet manifested itself.  As with the offense, the defense ranks middle or bottom third in most all areas.  Green Bay is 20th in points allowed, 21st in total yards allowed, and 13th in yards per play allowed.  Their four takeaways thus far rank tied for 20th.  Just as last year, the Packers are better stopping the pass than stopping the run.  They are 11th in passing yards allowed, but 30th in rushing yards given up.  Only the Bengals and Broncos have given up more yards on the ground. 

Green Bay is tied for 16th in sacks with eleven.  Injuries to Jaire Alexander and De’Vondre Campbell haven’t helped.  Quay Walker, Darnell Savage and Rasul Douglas have had impressive starts, but the defensive line of Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt, TJ Slaton, Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks has been disappointingly porous.  Head coach Matt LaFleur expressed frustration with the defense after the Detroit game and indicated there may be “philosophical changes” forthcoming.  

So what does it all mean?  Well, as the youngest team in the league, it was expected they would be inconsistent, and wow, is that ever true.  In just four games the Packers have played very well, very mediocre, and very bad.  They were mediocre in the first half against the Bears, then very good in the second half.  They were very good in the first three quarters against the Falcons, then very bad in the fourth quarter.  They were very bad against the Saints for three quarters, and then very good in the fourth.  They were terrible in the first half against the Lions and mediocre in the second half. 

It’s reasonable to assume the inconsistency will continue for at least the short term future.  One thing for sure, you can’t say this team is predictable.  Who knows how they will perform not only from game to game, but quarter to quarter.  There’s so much of the season yet to play out.  Perhaps they will gradually get better, tougher and more confident as the year rolls on.  But in order for that to happen it is clear they must run the ball more effectively, and the defense has to play well enough to keep them in the game, while Love must improve his accuracy and completion rate. 

So in summary, Green Bay’s start has not been a bust nor has it been a raging success.  They are not the Bears, but they are also a far cry from the 49ers.  They are middle dwellers.  If you consider this season to be a rebuilding project, then middle of the pack is acceptable. The key is to see some sort of improvement along the journey. The effort against the Lions was a clear regression. 

Whether you’re an optimist, a pessimist, or just a wait-and-see kind of fan, the rest of the year is going to be an interesting ride.