Packers vs. Dolphins: 5 Things to Watch and a Prediction

Five things to watch and a prediction for Packers-Dolphins in Week 6. 

The Green Bay Packers (3-2) will end their mini bye week with a trip south to sunny Miami, where the Dolphins (2-2)—fresh off a full bye week—and the heat of south Florida await for a non-conference clash in Week 6. 

Here's five things to watch and a prediction:

 

1. Speed on Speed

Two of the fastest players at their respective positions—Dolphins receiver Mike Wallace and Packers cornerback Sam Shields—will go head-to-head Sunday. The long-striding Wallace has hurt Green Bay in the past, catching two touchdowns back in a 2009 meeting and another score in Super Bowl XLV. He has 32 career catches over 40 yards, although only five have come during his 20 games in Miami.

Shields has given up some big plays, including four catches over 20 yards, but he's generally been solid playing on the perimeter this season. He simply can't get caught peeking—arguably his biggest weakness as a cover man—against a speedster like Wallace. One bite and the Dolphins are capable of scoring six. Makeup speed doesn't matter much when dealing with Wallace. 

 

2. Test for the Tackle Duo

The Packers enter Week 6 ranked seventh in overall pass-blocking efficiency at Pro Football Focus, which might come as a surprise to some. Maybe it shouldn't. Only two tackle combinations have allowed less pressures this season than Green Bay's duo of David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga (nine total), while guard Josh Sitton has given up just a single pressure (tied for first among guards). 

The two tackles will have their hands full in Miami, where Cameron Wake (two sacks, 19 pressures) and Olivier Vernon (two sacks, 13 pressures) will be called upon to disrupt the Packers passing game. Wake has a strong argument as the best 4-3 defensive end of the last four or five years, while Vernon broke out with 11.5 sacks last season. The Dolphins are perfectly capable of causing havoc with just four rushers if both Wake and Vernon are on. Bakhtiari and Bulaga need to hold their own and force Miami to bring extra people on the blitz, which is almost always advantage Aaron Rodgers. 

 

3. Tanny's Breaking Point

Like many teams, the Dolphins are difficult to beat when their quarterback plays well, and easy to defeat when the position plays poorly. However, the splits in Miami are even more defined with Ryan Tannehill under center. The Dolphins are 13-0 when Tannehill has a passer rating of 91.0 or over, and just 4-19 when he doesn't. When Tannehill's passer rating sinks below 79.4, or his career average, the Dolphins are 1-15, with the one win coming when Tannehill was knocked out of the game after five attempts. 

That's good news for the Packers, who are allowing an opposing passer rating of just 70.5 this season. Only the Bengals have been better. Green Bay has forced turnovers through pressure (on pace for 70 more quarterback disruptions in 2014), while also allowing only five touchdown passes. The Dolphins probably can't pull off the upset without Tannehill playing well Sunday.

 

4. Challenged Running

The Packers made clear progress in both running the football and stopping the run last Thursday against the Vikings. Green Bay rushed for season-high 156 yards (76 more than the offense's next best output) and held the Vikings to a season-low 111 rushing yards. Miami represents a more significant challenge for both sides. On offense, the Packers will face what Pro Football Focus considers the NFL's eighth best run defense. Of Miami's 11 preferred defensive starters, nine have a positive grade against the run through four games. The run defense is anchored by disruptive tackles Jared Crick and Earl Mitchell, while Jelani Jenkins has the third most run stops of any 4-3 outside linebacker. 

Offensively, the Dolphins use a Chip Kelly-like spread attack with zone-read principles, and are averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Both the darting Lamar Miller and powerful Knowshon Moreno, the offense's two main backs, have averages at or over 5.5 yards. For the Packers, stopping the run will become more difficult if Datone Jones (ankle) can't go. Expect the Dolphins to pound the football, especially against a young front in the hot Miami sun. The Packers can't get gashed on the ground and still expect to win Sunday. Ask the Patriots why. 

 

5. Rodgers in the Florida Sun

A week ago, Aaron Rodgers took down Mike Zimmer, one of his last remaining football adversaries. Rodgers can deal with another old enemy Sunday: the state of Florida. His three career starts in the Sunshine State have been mostly forgettable. 

The Packers lost all three games (one to Jacksonville, two to Tampa Bay), in large part because Rodgers threw seven total interceptions and had a combined passer rating of 65.4. Amazingly, over 13 percent of Rodgers' 53 career picks have come during just three games in Florida. There's no real rhyme or reason for why this is, save for the fact that all three games came in either 2008 or 2009, Rodgers' first two seasons as the starting quarterback. This is a different Rodgers, and a different Packers team. A quarterback always looking for even a tiny edge can check off another box Sunday in Miami. 

 

Prediction: Packers 28, Dolphins 20 (3-2)

The Dolphins' defensive line and ability to run the football on offense give Miami a fighting chance to pull off the upset. The heat should also be advantage Dolphins. That said, it feels like things are starting to click for the Packers. Tannehill won't play well enough to keep up. 

 

Zach Kruse contributes to Cheesehead TV. He is also the Lead Writer for the NFC North at Bleacher Report. You can reach him on Twitter @zachkruse2 or by email at [email protected].

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Comments (18)

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HankScorpio's picture

October 10, 2014 at 06:05 pm

"That's good news for the Packers, who are allowing an opposing passer rating of just 70.5 this season."

That number is a product of QB pressure and interceptions. There is no way it happens unless the Packers are doing ok with both. If they maintain that number throughout the season, I'll really like their chances in the postseason.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

October 10, 2014 at 06:58 pm

We might have to pass-to-run this game.

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Lphill's picture

October 10, 2014 at 08:41 pm

Packers 28 Dolphins 17 some fun in the sun.

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Samson's picture

October 10, 2014 at 09:03 pm

"......things are starting to click for the Packers."

They better click enough to beat another patsy like the Dolphins (even on the road). To lose to an AFC team that will be lucky to win 6 games in 2014 would have the homers messing in their underwear again.

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PackerAaron's picture

October 10, 2014 at 09:15 pm

Hardly. The Dolphins have a lot of talent. They have a joke of a head coach. A Dolphins win would hardly be surprising or cause for panic.

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Samson's picture

October 11, 2014 at 01:03 pm

Teams can be considered patsies for a number of reasons ... including their bumbling coaching staffs.

However, if the Pack want to finish 11-5 and be higher than the 4th seed, starting the season out at 3-3 is probably not a great idea. The odds of going 8-2 the final ten are slim. A lose to the Phins would certainly concern me. If the Pack want to be an elite team, they don't lose to the Phins on Sunday.

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4thand1's picture

October 11, 2014 at 01:40 am

Like your lolions, queens and barelies?

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zerotolerance's picture

October 11, 2014 at 12:00 am

A Packers win would mean 4-2. Which would put your 8-8 prediction at risk.

Why do you profess to like this team, but spew nothing but negativity?

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HankScorpio's picture

October 11, 2014 at 06:27 am

Being elite in week 5 is no particular feat. It's being elite in December and beyond that counts.

This team can be elite. If their pass rushers stay healthy and continue to perform as they have, the sky is the limit. They have the secondary talent to take advantage of rushed or tipped passes. That creates extra opportunities for an offense led by Aaron Rodgers.

That's a recipe for "elite".

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HankScorpio's picture

October 11, 2014 at 09:42 am

Don't worry about either. They don't matter that much. At least not to winning a SB. And I don't give a rip whether a SB winning fits some mythical criteria of being "elite". One could make the argument that there hasn't been an elite NFL team since the Cowboys of the 90s. Quibbling over the definition of elite is not something that interests me. I'm just talking about playing at the required elite level from about mid-December (or earlier) on through the SB.

Elite QBs manufacture perimeter weapons all the time. coldhardfootballfacts.com calls WRs "hood ornaments". That might be a bit over the top but there is a grain of truth there. I can't think of a single WR than led a team to a Lombardi. Even the great Jerry Rice only won with a HoF QB throwing to him. But plenty of QBs have led their teams to title and been highly productive with questionable skill position talent. The Packers would have a rough time if Nelson and/or Cobb miss significant time but barring that, they're fine. Assuming Rodgers is healthy, he will find a way to be productive with Adams, Boykin, R. Rodgers, Quarless, Janis, Dorsey or whoever else supplementing Nelson and Cobb. If he's not healthy, all bets are off. Which could be said of just about any NFL team.

As for the capable interior defenders, Daniels and Jones are interior guys. Matthews is playing inside some. That is inside pass rushing firepower that doesn't take a back seat to many. It doesn't matter if they struggle vs the run. It's the pass game that decides championships. You can make a strong argument that it always has. In the last 12 or so years, it becomes nearly indisputable.

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Charvid's picture

October 11, 2014 at 06:40 am

While the pass D has improved with the improved safety play, I think the real reason for the high pass D ranking is more a result of having faced Geno Smith, Bad Jay and Ponder in 3 of the first 5 games.

That said, Packers win this game 26-23 while Bears get beat in Atlanta and Lions lose in Minnesota. PACK 4-2, MN 3-3, Detroit 3-3, Bears 2-4.

I like the way the first half of season is shaping up!!

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HankScorpio's picture

October 11, 2014 at 07:17 am

"While the pass D has improved with the improved safety play, I think the real reason for the high pass D ranking is more a result of having faced Geno Smith, Bad Jay and Ponder in 3 of the first 5 games."

"Bad Jay" is a function of the opposing defense. It is not some random occurrence. He shows up as a reaction to what is lined up on the other side of the LoS. Making him show up is not something to dismiss out of hand.

And Matthew Stafford is the same way. He was bad Matt because of the way the Packers played on defense that day.

Sounds like they got the job done vs two pretty good QBs leading pretty good offenses to me. Both were on the road, to boot.

After the first 6 quarters of the year, the defense has been pretty good, all in all. If the offense hadn't stunk on ice vs Detroit, they'd be 4-1 with the lone loss being on the road in the defending champ's home opener.

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Lphill's picture

October 11, 2014 at 09:41 am

so what teams are elite COW ?

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Lphill's picture

October 11, 2014 at 01:19 pm

COW your lists just prove you are a hater, do you really think anybody here actually believes your a Packers fan? time to change your user name again.

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Lphill's picture

October 11, 2014 at 01:29 pm

Doesnt matter I will take that response to prove my point you're not a Packers fan, is that better?

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Lphill's picture

October 11, 2014 at 05:44 pm

yes the Packers have an elite QB and are an elite team, Ranked top 5 and top 6 by NFL.COM and ESPN, also by the way the Rookie center has graded out as one of the the top centers in the NFL, we have not seen the best of the Packers yet, Saints and Eagles were on top of the pre-season poles, both have not lived up to expectations, Eagles always fighting from behind, but I guess COW and SAMSON dont watch much football .The best is yet to come, Book it !

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KenEllis's picture

October 11, 2014 at 09:32 pm

Great write up Zach.

However, please it is the tackles have allowed FEWER pressures not LESS pressures.

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MarkinMadison's picture

October 12, 2014 at 07:30 am

Eat more chicken, pass on the beef.

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