Packers 53-man roster prediction: Pre-training camp edition
-- So what if it's July 24 and training camp starts in two days? If anything, this is the perfect time for a 53-man roster prediction.
That's just me trying to convince myself that I'm not crazy and that this is absolutely the best time for a prediction of this caliber. Before the pads come on, before the position battles begin, before the -- inhale -- injuries.
What could go wrong? Probably everything.
But, that isn't going to stop me. Here's my pre-training camp crack at predicting the Packers' 53-man opening day roster.
OFFENSE (26)
Quarterbacks (3)
Aaron Rodgers, Brett Hundley, DeShone Kizer
*Note: Kizer still has somewhat of a learning curve to master before he can be considered the Packers' primary backup quarterback and beat out Hundley, who, despite what social media will tell you, did manage to make some good plays last year amidst all of the bad. His fatal flaw may be inconsistency, but if he isn't used as trade bait or released between now and September, Hundley will enter the season as the back-up behind Aaron Rodgers.
Running backs (3)
Jamaal Williams, Ty Montgomery, Devante Mays
*Note: Aaron Jones is suspended for the first two games of the regular season, so he won't count towards the roster. That may open the door for Mays for the time being, but once Jones is activated -- after week two -- he could be the first one released to create a spot for Jones.
Fullback(s) (1)
Joe Kerridge
*Note: Aaron Ripkowski is coming off of a relatively disappointing campaign a year ago, and that could be Kerridge's calling card. He's always been consistent with what little playing time he's been given and hasn't struggled in pass protection. Don't be surprised if the Packers cut ties with a former Ted Thompson sixth-round pick.
Wide receivers (7)
Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Geronimo Allison, J'Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, Trevor Davis
*Note: Yep, I have the Packers entering the season with seven receivers, including all three rookie draft picks. Davis earns a spot in my book simply due to his return ability, which seems to be overlooked because of the several mental errors he made in 2017 when returning punts. Even so, they didn't happen as often as it seemed. Neither one of the rookies have experience returning punts, and when Davis' mind is in the right place, he's the best return man on the team without question.
Tight ends (3)
Jimmy Graham, Marcedes Lewis, Emanuel Byrd
Tackles (4)
David Bakhtiari, Kyle Murphy, Jason Spriggs, Byron Bell
*Note: Starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga is going to begin the season on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list, thus, opening a roster spot for potentially another offensive lineman. That could be Adam Pankey, who has transitioned between both guard and tackle. He'd need a stellar camp and preseason to stick, but it's a name to consider.
Guards (4)
Lane Taylor, Justin McCray, Cole Madison, Lucas Patrick
*Note: The Packers have a ton of versatility along the offensive line. Madison, McCray and Taylor are all capable of playing tackle in case of emergency, and Bell has experience at interior guard if the Packers run empty on depth behind Taylor and McCray, the two presumed starters.
Center(s) (1)
Corey Linsley
DEFENSE (24)
Defensive ends (3)
Muhammad Wilkerson, Dean Lowry, James Looney
Defensive tackles (4)
Mike Daniels, Kenny Clark, Montravius Adams, Joey Mbu
*Note: I like Mbu. I think he'll turn out to be more than just a camp body and actually end up sticking.
Outside linebackers (5)
Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, Vince Biegel, Reggie Gilbert, Ahmad Thomas
*Note: A bit of a bold prediction here. Thomas was an add-on to the practice squad last season and has a similar build to that of Josh Jones, the Packers' rookie safety from a year ago. He'd be able to be cycled into various positions with his stature and athleticism, so there aren't many limitations from a physical standpoint. If he can play on special teams, he could be the reason the Packers move on from Kyler Fackrell.
Inside linebackers (3)
Blake Martinez, Jake Ryan, Oren Burks
Cornerbacks (5)
Kevin King, Tramon Williams, Jaire Alexander, Josh Jackson, Lenzy Pipkins
*Note: As much as I believe Davon House is a solid veteran addition to the cornerback room and that he -- and the team -- would benefit from him serving as depth as opposed to starting like he was in 2017, I think Pipkins beats him out and earns himself a roster spot. He showed flashes in his rookie season that offered some promising looks into what could be a young, up-and-coming cornerback in what has suddenly turned into somewhat of a loaded unit.
Safeties (4)
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Josh Jones, Kentrell Brice, Raven Greene
*Note: Voila! An undrafted free agent making the roster! I wish I could say that wearing No. 36 is the only reason I believe Greene will make the roster, but on top of holding a James Madison school record with 14 interceptions -- amassed over a four-year span -- Greene is a ballhawk. He also hits hard at 5-11, 197. Much like most undrafted guys, he may need to nail playing on special teams to earn a roster spot, but if he can kill it on his opportunities in the preseason, pure athletic ability may be all he needs.
SPECIAL TEAMS (3)
Kicker(s) (1)
Mason Crosby
Punter(s) (1)
JK Scott
Long snapper(s) (1)
Hunter Bradley
__________________________
Zachary Jacobson is a staff writer/reporter for Cheesehead TV. He's the voice of The Leap on iTunes and can be heard on The Scoop KLGR 1490 AM every Saturday morning. He's also a contributor on the Pack-A-Day Podcast. He can be found on Twitter via @ZachAJacobson or contacted through email at [email protected].
Comments (43)
PatrickGB
July 24, 2018 at 02:52 pm
Good summary. I would predict one less WR (MVS) and one more OL. Perhaps someone who can back up center as well as play guard. I am not sure who that will be. We drafted a guy for that last year.
It will be interesting to see who makes the PS.
zerotolerance
July 24, 2018 at 03:05 pm
I’d bet the farm they will not keep seven DL. I also think House will stick.
dobber
July 24, 2018 at 03:14 pm
Another view here:
https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2018/07/24/packers-53-...
4thand10
July 25, 2018 at 10:21 am
I think they might drop a LB and keep and extra DL so they have the flexibility to go as a true 4-3 against certain teams.
dobber
July 25, 2018 at 10:25 am
I think both Gilbert and Odom are going to be comfortable playing DE in an even front (they did in college), so I think they already have that flexibility built in.
'Course...those guys still have to make the team. I don't worry too much about Gilbert, but Odom might have a bit of a hill to climb.
Oppy
July 25, 2018 at 11:26 am
Pettine might already be planning on running 4-3 as our base.
It would explain the 2-to-1 ratio of OLB/ILBs and why we only have 3 true inside LB's on the roster.
We'll probably be getting a firm idea within a week or two.
I'm heading up to watch a few practices in a few weeks. I can't wait, it's my favorite time of the year.
freddisch
July 24, 2018 at 03:27 pm
Take bait for Hundley ? You must be kidding
croatpackfan
July 25, 2018 at 03:42 am
I agree. Main Hundley flow is indecisiveness. He need to much time to make play and that allows opponent to close the possibilities for 1st option, and than Hundley need another 15 sec to make another decision. To much time, to much...
stockholder
July 24, 2018 at 03:33 pm
Monty will start. Hundley, Allison, Cut. Mays kept, then waived. Greene PS. Rollins and House will stick. You don't throw away a 2nd rd. pick. They must give Alexander and Jackson time. 6 CBs and lets see who moves to safety.
Turophile
July 25, 2018 at 02:27 am
Davis is a more likely cut than Allison. There are several quick young receivers that potentially could take his spot. There are a lot of physically talented fast young WRs pushing for a roster spot, ones that might not survive cutdown and subsequent waiver claims, to end up on the Packers PS.
Rollins could well be gone if that ankle trouble has slowed him to the point of being uncompetitive. Training camp will sort that out one way or another (I liked that guy a lot, when we drafted him).
Oppy
July 25, 2018 at 11:30 am
Davis would be likely to be cut that Allison if we're only viewing him as a WR.
He is a top tier punt return man, and with that top gear he has, he is a threat to score on any given punt. I believe he may be viewed by the Packers in the same light as Jarret Bush was for years. He might have a spot as a ST ace, and not be measured against other WR's for a roster spot- simply a ST spot, and insurance/depth if needed at WR.
Lare
July 24, 2018 at 03:44 pm
This is the third article I've read today with Packers final roster predictions. All-in-all, probably 90% of the top players are the same in all of them, the remaining 10% are with bubble players with a few changes here and there. And unfortunately, training camp injuries (hopefully not to key starters) will probably make 4 or 5 changes to all of these before it's over.
A lot more speed & athleticism on this roster than in previous years, should be a fun training camp to watch.
Since'61
July 24, 2018 at 04:06 pm
I would be surprised if the Packers kept 7 WRs. In fact if that group is the group that makes it through camp there is no reason to keep Allison, unless they move him to the PS.
I have the same thoughts on the DL. If Mbu makes the team I expect he will be on the PS. 7 DLs would be heavy, especially with the need for better depth at OLB and ILB.
At CB I think House makes the 53 as veteran depth and that Pipkins starts the season on the PS. As the season progresses Pipkins will eventually be brought into the CB rotation and House will either be chucked or maybe sent to IR.
Don't know enough about Greene to say that he will stick but if he is good enough why not. Time will tell.
Continue to go with speed and athleticism. Chuck the mediocre and stay healthy.
Thanks, Since '61
dobber
July 24, 2018 at 04:12 pm
Clark and Yancey (and all 3 rookies) should both have PS eligibility left. If the Packers are really worried about their rookies, then that's where you put Clark and Yancey to make room for the rookies on the 53. Unless Clark and Yancey are lights-out in the PS, I don't think they'd be a risk to get to the PS (or a loss if they went elsewhere).
Since'61
July 24, 2018 at 09:07 pm
Dobber - your approach would be an excellent way to go if the 3 rookies prove to be worth keeping. Good job. Thanks, Since '61
kevgk
July 24, 2018 at 07:36 pm
I would argue thet the reason they didn't persue a higher drafted WR or more in the free agency is because they liked Allison on the depth chart. When was the last time the Packers kept only 2 experienced WRs on the roster? Geronimo is about where Davante Adams was at this point in his career too.
croatpackfan
July 25, 2018 at 03:46 am
You can not be serious to put Davante Adams (who played second season hurt - his ankle was injured, as the most important part of his suddenness!) and Geronimo Allison in the same sentence...
My God!
Rak43
July 25, 2018 at 04:13 am
C'mon! Stop pretending like over half of the Posters on every Packer thread didn't want Davante cut or traded by the end of his second year. It's real easy to scream "my God" now but we all heard the he's injury prone, too slow, drops too many passes, is too inconsistent comments at the time. No different than what's being said about Allison now.
stockholder
July 25, 2018 at 07:10 am
I for one did. I still feel he will be the most over-paid WR in Packer history. The biggest difference in Adams and Allison is the YAC. Allison will never be that threat that you want in a WR. His packer YAC is one of the lowest after 2 seasons. The WRs should not be based on the buddy system. A WR must be the real thing now. Your first offensive threat. He will never be double teamed. He will never be that break away guy. He will be a pet. A guy everyone likes until he drops the pass that ends the season. Let's compare Allison to a horse. Do you bet on a work horse, or a race horse. The position calls for a race horse. Not a TE.
Oppy
July 25, 2018 at 11:38 am
Over half the posters on every Packer thread were out of their minds. LOL.
Believe it or not, there were a few of us who were not freaking out about a second year WR who was playing with a significant ankle injury almost the entire regular season.
And let's not forget, over half the posters on every Packers thread thought Aaron Rodgers was garbage and the Packers completely screwed the pooch when they moved on from Brett Favre.
carlos
July 24, 2018 at 08:08 pm
I don’t think Pipkins would clear the waiver wire.
carlos
July 24, 2018 at 08:08 pm
Could be risky.
Bure9620
July 25, 2018 at 01:42 am
I agree since '61, 7 WR is overkill especially with Graham split wide. 6 is even heavy, no more.
croatpackfan
July 25, 2018 at 03:47 am
More or less I think you are right. But I think Pipkins will not make the team, not even PS. I think Herb Waters will be that man!
Oppy
July 25, 2018 at 11:42 am
Joe Whitt Jr. was raving about Herb Waters' potential before he was injured last training camp. Stated flatly that he had Tramon Williams/ Sam Shields type potential, but he needed to develop. High praise from a coach who knows a thing or two about what it takes to make it as a DB in the NFL and doesn't mince words.
HeyJoe415
July 24, 2018 at 04:12 pm
Interesting comment on Greene. I’ll keep an eye on him as TC and the PS move along. I don’t see Trevor Davis making it. Alexander can return punts, and Davis, even with his speed, doesn’t have the instincts to play WR in the NFL. Agree with another comment that they’ll keep 6 WRs and add an OL (to this chart). And who is behind Ryan? I had high hopes for him coming out of Michigan, but he strikes me as “just a guy”. He also reminds me of a late-career AJ Hawk. It’s also likely the Packers add an edge guy and an OL from what’s left of free agents. Not enough depth at either position group, and the existing guys have a nasty injury history, with just a few exceptions.
Blizzard
July 24, 2018 at 07:56 pm
A negative comment about the great AJ Hawk always gets a thumbs down
Samson
July 24, 2018 at 08:50 pm
AJ's only problem was he was a high draft pick. --- I actually liked him. --- He was healthy and at least consistent. --- Not great but at least on the field.
Handsback
July 24, 2018 at 04:12 pm
ESB over Yancey, and Clark mmmmm maybe. ESB will really need to step-up his game in order to make the team. His discipline and desire really needs to be fired up to become a pro wide receiver.
HeyJoe415
July 24, 2018 at 04:16 pm
Forgot this but I don’t think they keep Hundley. They didn’t trade Randall for Kizer to put Kizer 3rd on the QB depth chart. Park another QB on the PS and pray ARod stays healthy so we aren’t discussing Kizer’s season.
Blizzard
July 24, 2018 at 06:46 pm
I can not see Hundley or Davis making the roster.
Samson
July 24, 2018 at 08:41 pm
I'm hoping your right. If both are cut, then just maybe, the Pack will have a higher level of quality on the final 53.
Oppy
July 25, 2018 at 12:21 pm
Davis is an above-average Kick Return man by all metrics, and his average Punt Return yardage was good for #3 in the league. I don't think of him as a WR any more than I thought of Jarret Bush as a DB in regards to roster spot.
kevgk
July 24, 2018 at 07:44 pm
I'm surprised at no Lance Kendrics or possibly 4 TEs. He has much more experience than Byrd and a 3rd TE would be a very critical piece of depth if they plan on running 2 TE sets often. He would slot into Jimmy's spot instead of removing Lewis as the lead blocker.
I'm surprised at 5 CBs considering they are almost exclusively rookies, one is 35, and they regularly play 3 on the field at once. DBs are important for practice squad too.
5 safties are a consideration too with the prevalence of 3 safety formations and the lack of experience at a very difficult position to learn.
To accomodate, I picture no FB considering the blocking prowess of Lewis and the RBs.
A 5th OLB can sit on the practice squad.
Maybe cutting one of the new rookie WRs, or Trevor Davis.
carlos
July 24, 2018 at 08:15 pm
Not a Kendrick’s fan. I prefer Byrd. Anyone’s thoughts on OL 6th round 2017 pick Kofi Amichia. I think he may have got injured last year. Maybe an ankle?
Oppy
July 25, 2018 at 11:53 am
I thought the same thing about FB for just a second, then remembered MM's proclivity / soft spot for the FB position. I think there would have to be a position group with extreme depth and talent to force MM's hand to go without a FB... and it would almost certainly have to be a very talented RB or TE who can handle "FB duties", as we've seen MM run formations in the past where either TE/RB motions into the backfield to serve as FB.
Samson
July 24, 2018 at 08:40 pm
Actually, this final 53 doesn't look bad, at all.
However, just the normal number of injuries will expose GB's lack of depth. --- It has happened every year for going on 8 seasons. -- It very well could be the Achilles Heal once again in season 2018.
Come on - Who's the BU QB and how much confidence can anyone have in that player at this point?
I wanted a proven vet who has at least won a few games in his career. --- The Pack just (at this point) do not have this QB on their roster.
PatrickGB
July 24, 2018 at 09:13 pm
I want to know who is the MVP of camp so we can cut him now.
Starr2Max
July 25, 2018 at 10:00 am
Two comments. I think with Bulaga on the pup, they will go with Hundley as backup till they are more sure of Kizer. Once they are more sure they will trade or release BH.
I also think/hope they give Collins a shot at Safety.
Starr2Max
July 25, 2018 at 10:06 am
Brain fart. Meant Rollins not Collins. I’ll blame Autocorrect.
dobber
July 25, 2018 at 10:23 am
Freudian slip: I think all of us WISH Nick Collins was still back there at S...
Oppy
July 25, 2018 at 11:09 am
Zachary, with regards to Trevor Davis' "mental errors", I would strongly suggest you read these two articles that detail the actual outcomes of punts that hit the ground inside the 10 yard line (I found one article, and thegreatreynoldo found the other, some time ago.)
It will change the way you view calling for fair catches inside certain distances, or, at least, will give you insight into how Special Teams coordinators probably coach up their return men, considering the data.
This link is easy to consume and relatively direct:
https://thebiglead.com/2015/11/18/fielding-punts-inside-the-10-in-the-nf...
This one is by far more concise and detailed, deep data!:
https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa164
Enjoy.
Oppy
July 25, 2018 at 11:23 am
Ahmad Thomas listed as an Outside Linebacker?
Admittedly, I don't know much about the guy (not a shred, to be honest) but a quick search and He's iisted at 6'1", 217 lbs.
Prototypical 3-4 OLBs call for length (6'4", 6'5" -ish) and size (typically 250-265 lbs.) because they're tasked with taking on NFL tackles on most downs. Packers have dipped down to 6'3" ish and as light as 240-ish.. but Ahmad's height and weight would make him undersized even for a traditional 4-3 OLB.