PRESTON SMITH:

The Packers gained $2.4M in cap space when Preston Smith agreed to a pay cut in that amount, per Field Yates.  It appears that Smith's base pay will be reduced from $5.6M to $3.2M.  Smith's $5.4M roster bonus is unchanged and it is due to be paid on March 16, 2024.  In exchange, Smith received incentives of up to $4M for sacks in 2024.  The incentives are not-likely-to-be-earned because he reportedly would need to have at least 10 sacks to trigger the lowest incentive and Smith only had 8 sacks last year.  Smith's career high for sacks is 12, which he did with Green Bay in 2019.

The move means that Smith will almost certainly be on the team in 2024.  Although it is a pay cut, it seems like the Packers think Smith will fit in the Hafly's new defense, as he is still scheduled to earn $10M in cash this season.  This is a renegotiation, so the terms of Smith's contract cannot be altered for 12 months (although he can still be released).  The Packers could still move money around in a restructure to gain more cap space but that avenue largely closes on March 16 when his bonus gets paid.  After March 16, the Packers could still lower his base salary from $3.2M to his minimum of $1.21M and convert the difference to a signing bonus, which would net around $1.6M in cap savings, but this seems unlikely.  Preston Smith as an avenue towards more cap space is likely closed.

I previously had the Packers with $7.2M in cap space.  This move increases the space to $9.6M.  But there is more good news.

NFL ADJUSTMENT:

The NFL announced cap adjustments for all 32 teams, including a whopping $5,561,176 positive adjustment for the Packers.  These typically come from incentives that were likely to be earned but the player failed to reach the target, game active bonuses, repayments, players not reporting for a workout bonus, and offsets.  For example, David Bakhtirari played 11 games in 2023 so but managed just one game in 2023.  Since he had a game active bonus of $600K ($35,294/game), the Packers regained 10 games time $35,294, or $352.9K. I thought game active bonuses were adjusted in-season rather than after the season, but perhaps not.  That is still a long way from $5.56M.  I suspect that the Packers had an insurance policy on Bakhtiari, but that is just my speculation.

The New England Patriots had the largest adjustment with an increase of $10.64M and Tampa Bay's cap space was adjusted down by $5.2M.  The Patriots lead the NFL with about $88M in salary cap space, per OTC.  I tried to find information for the NFL North teams but found no articles on this matter.

WHAT IT MEANS:  

The adjustment on top of the Smith paycut increases the Packers salary cap space to $14.175M and to about $15M by my calculations.  Many expect the Packers to wring several millions in cap space from Aaron Jones and I expect a couple of million from Kenny Clark, most likely by means of an extension.  Those moves would put the Packers about $20M under the cap.  Jaire Alexander is due $16M in cash for 2024, but I would prefer not to disturb his contract again.  I would leave Alexander as the "break-in-case-of-emergency-only" player.

I would like for the Packers to get to $30M to $33M under the cap.  That is really just pure opinion based on the notion of signing two mid-tier free agents ($10M to $12M AAV or so) and still having something left over to make some other modest signings, perhaps Nixon for $4M to $6M or some other slot cornerback, a running back,etc., and dealing an increase if Jordan Love's cap number when his extension is signed.  Other than the aforementioned Alexander and Royce Newman ($2.8M), that leaves DeVondre Campbell and Bakhtiari.  The Packers could do a straight release Campbell to gain $2.6M or a June designation to gain $10.57M, or ask for a pay cut, preferably of at least $2.6M.  Campbell is scheduled to earn $10.75M in cash.  $7M or even $8M seems more reasonable.  He has a $2.9M roster bonus on March 16. 

I am still expecting the Packers to gain $20.935M in cap relief by releasing Bakhtiari.  At the risk of annoying some readers, I feel impelled to mention that I believe Bakhtiari is going to have to give some team a prove-it contract, perhaps for $2M plus some decent incentives, all non-guaranteed.  Such a deal would still provide Green Bay with $18M in cap savings.  Perhaps his market is higher than that, but would have no appetite at bigger numbers.  If Bakhtiari wants out of Green Bay, he need only refuse to renegotiate his contract.  

What this really means is that Brian Gutekunst has options as to both how to generate cap savings and the amount.  He might even want to smooth out Jordan Love's cap numbers so they are too astronomical in 2026 and beyond.  The decision on Campbell should become apparent before March 16.  

Photo courtesy of Jaren Hall, USA Today