Oh yeah a home run on every pick, stuper bull here we come, I especially liked watching mustgrave highlights were he fell down immediately after contact and didn’t break a single tackle, impressive..

OMFG!

That was fantastic!!! High pressure too….!

Totally agree! If I showed you my hs football highlights, you’d be bewildered as to why I didn’t get a full ride at Alabama!

So the 4 catches for 60 yards (both just below his 2022 per game averages) he had in that game were from nobody covering him?

I think someone took umbrage at how you described how Gutey came to pick these guys. I think you may be more right than you know, but they don't want to hear their GM is taking flyers on guys who are talented, but were injured or something else.

Tbh, and I know guys will scream bloody murder when I say this, but I think it is possible for Reed to have a better career than JSN. He's a lot faster. Runs harder. Has just as much talent if not more. That won't be a popular opinion either, but it's what I believe, and another reason Gutey didn't take JSN and drafted possibly the next monster Edge player in LVN.

Swisch, it seems some people downvote you no matter what you write. I also notice they almost never comment. Just drive-by downvotes. I'm starting to get them too. Passive aggressive, just like their deity.

He reminds me of Colt McCoy and Brock Purdy both. Not a strong arm, but good enough to be effective if need be. The reason he took him when he did is because he probably had a couple he was interested in and once Clayton Tune went, he had to pull the trigger.

To me, it appears the Anders Carlson pick was Rich Bisaccia’s all the way. Bisaccia had to convince Gutekunst he saw something special in Andres, despite his ACL, and thought the anomaly in Carlson’s accuracy was something he could correct.

Bisaccia is one of the best ST coaches currently in the game. If he’s willing to fight for a player, you get him.

Our kicker is evaluated as potentially best of class if he returns to form after his injury. I'm thinking that coupled with his brother having been coached by Rich with our ST has to be why Gutey picked him.

Our QB kept Will Levis off the field.

Nick & Patty,
I just don't get it sometimes as Gutey is damned if he does & damned if he doesn't. In every draft it is the constant challenge of what does your team need the most and does the draft have the talent at those positions. Then it will depend on how the draft unfolds. The Packers had so many needs for talent that Gutey obviously pushed back the drafting of the QB. If he had taken the QB earlier than he would have missed out on a key player at an important position. There was a run on QB's and he likely wasn't able to draft who he ideally wanted. I am not a QB gruru, but it sounds like Clifford is an intelligent QB and athletic, but simply doesn't have a howitzer for an arm. I repeatedly see how QB's like AR somehow strengthen their arm once they are in the league. Is it just physically maturing that does it, or is there something that a player can specifically do on their own? Either way, at #116 I am happy with the Clifford pick. We desperately needed those 5 players we drafted ahead of Clifford. If he ends up not being the guy than we will need to keep looking. Let's hope the OL can keep Jordan Love healthy and we do not need to worry about it for 2023.

I agree, murf. More than anything, QB was a surprise to me, thinking the Packers could easily get a good one in UDFA. They felt more strongly about the player.

Can’t argue too much. They certainly had the picks, and I think they got a good one.

He was taken where he was Ranked by Scouts. He and O'Connell ( 4th Rd ,Raiders) were close as passers. I would take him over Stetson Bennett and Robinson ( UCLA). Clayton Tune, just ahead of Clifford in the 5th, was an Air Raid, QB. I liked Max Duggan in the sixth. He went to the Chargers, 7th Rd. Clifford with the most production of the bunch, fits their profile @ 6'-2, 218-220 Lbs. 86 TDs to 31 INTs, 61.0 % completions. He beat out Levis.

Murf,
The 5th round was where I consistently thought the Packers should draft a QB. They had so many holes to fill at other positions. Just unfortunate a run on QB's took place ahead of the Clifford pick.

I'm hoping they have some competition for him in camp. Two went undrafted that look kinda better on paper, Szmyt and Pondersly (or something like that)

I can answer that TK, at least when it comes to myself.

Me, mistaken? NEVER! Big LOL followed by bigger eye roll.

Nope. LOL

That was first rate, TK.

Well said TK!

If you’re going to make statements like “our gm is a moron”, then you’ve lost all credibility.

To be fair, Gutey went contrarian. He avoided most of the people who had pre-draft visits, and he picked mostly people who slid down due to injury but should be recovered by camp.

Will it work? The WL record will answer that but not in the first year. And our DC will spoil that regardless of draft (barring a miracle)

In the meantime remember that football math doesn't work, and take time to appreciate the dedication and accomplishment of the individual athletes. A team is an entirely different thing. If all goes as well as possible it'll still take until 2024 before the new offense really starts to gel, but at least JL10 should be jumping into pre-seaaon with passion.

Clearly, you are a Good Fella!

Ain't that true!

A reach is only if all your scouts and yourself have ranked all the players and you have a specific player rated as say the #78th player and you select him early. Let's just say you draft him at #65 because you were concerned he would be gone. That is a reach!

Who do we consider competent evaluators though?

I'm with davekenya, but I'll expand on his comment a bit.

Firstly, a reach is in the eyes of the beholder (no, not the D&D monster). A reach in your or the media's eyes, may not be one on the teams board.

Second, I'd say one round early is a reach in the earlier parts of the draft, a round and a half in the middle and later parts (after round three) where the talent level is bunched closer together and you are picking guys with negatives of some sort (age, smarts, athleticism, production, character, etc).

If a team really likes a guy and wants him, but is sure they won't last until their next pick (for the sake of argument I'm assuming that means a full round later) then they can take him up to 20 picks earlier than they have ranked him.................... and THEY don't consider it a reach, as the player would be gone well before their next pick. This scenario also assumes they have evaluated correctly the area that guy would be taken.

To take a particular example, Did the Lions reach in taking RB Jahmyr Gibbs with pick 12 ? If we take a draft board (I'll take Drafttek for this). He was listed as pick 36 there. 36-12 = 24. That is just about a reach, as I think of it, more than 20 picks higher than projected and in round one, where the talent level drops fastest.

So then SF took the best kicker in this draft with a "reach." Ok but it'll probably work for them.

I don't usually 'call out' teams for a reach and I do accept that team boards are stacked differently. In addition one aspect that is seldom considered in ranking players, is how they fit in that teams philosophy/scheme. For example, a run blocking beast of an OG who is a below average pass protector, would certainly NOT fit the Packers philosophy, as they have emphasised taking good pass protectors for many years.

That said, in my post above this, I've laid out what I would call a reach.

Bear in mind that the media is always looking for stories, so if they see what they consider a reach, they will gleefully point it out and may not be reasonable about it.

As for 'draftniks' screaming their pick was horrible, I'd say it is more common for them to hate the pick because for them it was the wrong position taken or a poor fit for their team, or they don't like the media description of that player.

The description of a reach is necessarily vague because it relies on an evaluation that differs between teams and among media boards. Therefore, any attempt to quantify it will always be something of a generalisation, which will fail to answer Oppy's question in a manner as exact as he/she would wish.

How about wait until the end of the season? Then, if he’s not an All-Pro, call him a reach and say “I knew it all along!”

Clearly I’m joking, but I might NOT be inaccurate!

I agree Oppy with your thoughts. It goes the other way to, those same folks and to some extent I catch my self falling into the trap, if a player is mostly rated at 45 and you get him at 25 he than becomes a steel. I also don’t pay much attention to grades. The reality is nobody really knows how the draft will do till they start playing and even then it will take a couple of years because some players improve greatly as the months and years progress.

Good point!
The fact that he took TWO other tight ends when DW was available tells you what they thought of him.

This is a perfect response, Matt. Well done.

You just described Gutekunst’s dilemma faced yearly picking players with a successful team.

If you really want a player slotted 25 picks deeper (“slotted” by DIC and “guessed at” are interchangeable here) to significantly help your football team, you take him!

I doubt WR Jayden Reed was a reach on Gutekunst’s own board.

My personal take is that if you take a player, you will never know if you would have had that player with your next pick.

The entire premise of "reach" is flawed because it is reliant on a pre-draft "grade" or "slotting" for each player, and that pre-draft assessment is arbitrary and built around the viewpoints of people who are outside the realm of the NFL professional scouting departments of the 32 franchises.

That being said, in my own opinion, the only way we can assess how informed and shrewd a draftnik actually is, is to compare the picks they're predicting are going to be taken by a given team- where they thought those picks would be taken compared to where they were actually selected by any NFL team.

Conversely, Matt Flynn won a national championship.

In regards to the NFL draft, there is no such thing as a reach. There are good and bad picks, but "reach" picks are a media construction. None of us has ever seen a teams draft board, but I guarantee that not one front office makes a pick predicated on a TV talking head or amateur draft enthusiasts assessment. There are no reaches.

Can you imagine in a million years the Packers front office saying "you know, Mel Kiper and Bucky Brooks really like this player, we better move up and take him"

2023 was Gutekunst’s 6th draft as a GM.

Yeah, there are going to be “reaches” and misses, and hopefully some hits. GMs literally learn “on the job,” only, there’s no one teaching them, because the last GM was fired.

And, to think drafting is only a small part of the job.

In his 3rd NFL Draft as a GM in 2020, Gutekunst makes a bold trade to take Jordan Love. Still made some gaffes.

They ALL DO. — Tony Mandarich

Here are some of the “gaffes” from Ron Wolf’s 3rd NFL Draft:

Orlando McKay

Christopher Holder

Shazzon Bradley

Andrew Oberg

Gabe Mokwuah

Great minds, buddy!

My Anthony Johnson Jr. notes:
—
Pick #242 Anthony Johnson Jr. - Iowa St.
6-0 207 4.54, 75.5” wingspan, 37.5 vertical (75%) 125 broad (77%)

Tackling, Run D, Coverage, Zone and Man/Press ALL 77%

243 tackles, 14 TFL, 3 sacks, 5 FF, 30 PBU, 2 INT over 62 games and 54 starts.

Versatile, but at his best in RUN D. Tough run defender who flashes press-man & zone coverage ability. Aggressive. Punishing, with crushing blows.

+ vision +recognition +awareness +diagnose +hard worker +explosion +lateral. Fluid reverse hip flip. Both productive and consistent. Needs coaching up in coverage. Converted CB with ball skills.

CB coverage with S eyes. Reads & deciphers quickly, reacting in a flash with nose for ball. Jumps routes. Drives fast on plays in front of him.

Tall framed with long arms. Great plant/cut. Great straight line speed. Great hip flip turn & chase. Active communicator pre snap.

TON of starting experience (4 years at CB, 1 year at S)

Still learning Deep Safety after 4 yrs at CB. Still getting acclimated there. Very comfortable in the box/slot.

***GREAT press-man & zone skills. Very good in Red Zone and Screen game. Great at reacting to the QB in coverage.

You can’t teach his effort.

—

I think AJJ is a unique Safety, and versatile to jump into CB like a switch.

“Illusion of complexity,” ring a bell? LaFleur did state upon Joe Barry’s hiring that he wanted same for his D. Show one read that morphs into something else entirely?

Plus, with RUN D being a top team need to address, AJJ is as equal the Run D Assasin as S Tarvarius Moore.

Both Tucker & Musgrave can be threats!

At 6'6" Musgrave who unlike Big Dog has good hands & a smooth route runner. These two TE's are going to change the offense. I am sure we will see a lot of 12 personnel. Frankly, with the 2 TE's and a true slot WR in Jayden I haven't seen a Packer offense with this type of potential in a 'very long time'!

jannes, my buddy who was Packers beat reporter for years loved the Clifford, Brooks, Valentine, Nichols (BIGTIME VOUCH) and DuBose picks.

It’s pretty different watching the draft with guys like that. Their livelihood? They know their shit.

He FREAKED OUT when we got Nichols, and had tears in his eyes watching DuBose highlights.

Knows Clifford well and really liked the pick R5.

I was surprised they took another. Height weight fits a toe, how does he look on film?

Yeah. My buddy told me about Levis transferring to Kentucky. I just watched Clifford's highlights, but he seems fearless on the field. Decent speed. Not a strong arm, but decent enough. Seems like he made some damn good decisions.

Our new K has a brother coached by Rich. He knows something. Some sources say if he recovers fully from his knee injury he could prove to be the best K in this draft class, I think that's what he was picked based on. There are two others who look like maybe they could be better, maybe they become our UDFAs? Podlensky and Szmyt (or something like that)

I thought we had 2 backup QBs so I don't understand taking another, but for the intended role this guy seems GREAT!

Do you basically seek something negative to say about most things? If you try hard enough you can find something negative about anything.

Thanks Knock. I was in and out, reading everyone's comments. I didn't have a lot to add to the already insightful feedback provided by our well informed CHTV brothers and sisters :)

I'd say two very different type of players all around. Musgrave is smoother & runs better. He has good hands as does Mayer. Mayer finds himself in a lot of contested catch situations. Musgrave is simply a much more explosive player and I'd give the nod to Mayer for blocking.

I read somewhere that Musgrave's knee injury was the result of a hit, which is better than if the knee just collapsed on its own. It seems like this kind of injury would be less likely to recur.

Musgrave seems more like a replacement for Lazard. I would have liked to have seen Lazard used on the perimeter, AR12 was accurate enough to put it where only he could get it so it wouldn't matter if he was double teamed. Throwing to him in the middle didn't work out as well but Musgrave might work out better in this role?

greengold - cookie!

No he isn't-
You Dump Amos
Dump the pick-
And can't draft the best safety on the board.
Think about that. NEED.
A first round player!
Sure he had questions. Long speed.
But Branch was far the better player.
And then there was a LB by the name of Simpson.
Who will be an All-pro and can play anywhere.
Best Tackler in the draft that fell because he got hurt.