Marshawn Lloyd, Feature Back in the Making?
The new running back could eventually play the leading role
By GregMeinholz
Although running backs aren't highly valued in the NFL Draft any longer, a small handful of rookie running backs always seem to take the league by storm each season. In 2023 it was Jahmyr Gibbs for the Lions, Bijan Robinson for the Falcons, and De'Von Achane for the Dolphins. As we all know, the shelf lives for running backs aren't what they used to be, and only a small handful go on to have long successful careers. So, getting a back acclimated and productive early in their career tends to be a top priority. This will be no different for Packers rookie running back, Marshawn Lloyd.
The Packers already had what we presumed would be their 1-2 backfield punch in Josh Jacobs and AJ Dillon, but we had a good feeling they would still draft a rookie to join the mix. The question was, how much would that rookie be used? I assumed that it would depend on the draft position. If said rookie running back was drafted in the first four rounds, the Packers would likely try to get him in the mix as much as possible in 2024 while still keeping him in a developmental role. If after that, then maybe that back would be more of a depth chart stashing until he's ready. Well, with Marshawn Lloyd being drafted in the third round, he'll likely be used right away.
After the first few days of rookie mini camps, Packers offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich had told reporters that he was excited about Lloyd's potential and that he would like to get him out there as much as possible. Stenavich noted that he liked Lloyd's speed a lot, and it's also worth noting that Lloyd averaged 17.8 yards per reception out of the backfield in 2023. Though it was only off of 13 receptions, it's a pretty impressive stat for any pass catcher. Matt LaFleur loves his dual-threat running backs and it would appear he's found a good one in Marshawn Lloyd as he doesn't seem to have any fear running routes out of the backfield as shown in the video below when Lloyd comes out of a 2-back set running a route up the middle of the field.
MarShawn Lloyd up the seam out of pony. I’m sure MLF & Steno are already thinking about ways to use Lloyd & Jacobs in 2 back sets. Posting this for you @DustyEvely @BenFennell_NFL pic.twitter.com/JPVeiZuwbB
— Andy Herman (@AndyHermanNFL) May 7, 2024
Standing at only 5'8, Marshawn Lloyd isn't exactly an imposing figure. But when you factor in that he weighs 220 pounds, suddenly that height can be meaningless when it comes barreling straight at you and his broken tackle totals demonstrate just that. In his last two seasons at USC, Marshawn Lloyd slipped away from tackles 111 times on 259 carries. It's not just power though, it's elusiveness as well and Lloyd can use his speed to slip away from tackle attempts.
"I'm the best running back in the draft, for sure"
NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah commented that the Packers just got the best running back in the draft when Lloyd was taken in the third round. That's some pretty high praise considering Lloyd was the 4th running back selected in the draft, and the first went 42 picks before him. Lloyd of course agreed with this comment and stated that he's the best running back for sure. His blend of finesse as well as his burst into the running lane makes him tough for a defender to evaluate. Is he going to try to run them over? Or is he going to weave through the running lanes to get away?
To be honest, I don't need him to be the best running back in the draft. Brooks, Benson, or Corum could have slightly better statistical years than Marshawn Lloyd on occasion for all I care. I just need Marshawn Lloyd to make the plays the Packers need to win another championship or two, and hopefully make his way into that feature-back role with us for just shy of a decade. And I think he can do that.
Becoming a feature-back
As we enter the 2024 season, Josh Jacobs is the feature back for Green Bay. AJ Dillon and Marshawn Lloyd, maybe even Emanuel Wilson will factor in when it comes to the offensive backfield, but it's going to be Josh Jacobs in the starring role. It may even be Josh Jacobs in that role again next season. But it's after that, that Marshawn Lloyd has the best chance to take over.
It took Aaron Jones about a year and a half to take over as the Packers' feature back, and that was in a backfield with no previous leading dog from the start. So, it's not a bad thing to have Lloyd take that role after some time as a co-star.
As far as belief in taking on that role goes, the Packers are likely not the only ones who believe it is a possibility. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported that the Cowboys were very interested in Marshawn Lloyd as a future feature-back and the Giants as well were eager to nab Lloyd as a feature-back in the making but they didn't have the draft capital to select him.
For Marshawn Lloyd to take on that name he will need to work on improvements in both aspects of his game, rush and pass, as well as eliminate a little fumble-plague that was a bit of a caution flag heading into the draft. Lloyd had eight fumbles on 360 carries in his collegiate career. So, ball control will be an emphasis if he moves forward. Perhaps a tongue-in-cheek sign of a Packers' feature back in the making could actually be a little fumble-itis. Aaron Jones was known to have issues losing the football at times and the Packers' all-time leading rusher ended up having some fumble-woes in his career as well. As much as we don't want them to cough up the football, maybe a few struggles at the beginning are necessary for keeping up with the franchise tradition.
All hands are on deck for Josh Jacobs to lead the Packers' running backs this season with AJ Dillon possibly filling in. However, Marshawn Lloyd could take away a good chunk of those carries and receptions in his rookie season. I look forward to this just being the beginning of what we hope could be a hall-of-fame career.
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Greg Meinholz is a lifelong devoted Packer fan. A contributor to CheeseheadTV as well as PackersTalk. Follow him on Twitter @gmeinholz for Packers commentary, random humor, beer endorsements, and occasional Star Wars and Marvel ramblings.
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Comments (29)
LambeauPlain
May 08, 2024 at 12:23 pm
After Lloyd was announced my response was lukewarm. Sounded ok, checked a box...but was hoping more for a C/G or CB.
Then I reviewed his college work, skills, background. Lukewarm went to hot. I knew why ML and Steno wanted Gute to draft him.
He's not just another chess piece. He can be an intriguing, strategic chess piece. Match up man!
Coldworld
May 09, 2024 at 07:24 am
He adds speed. Something we’ve not had. I think he’s an ideal back type to compliment Jacobs. I don’t necessarily see him as being at his best an every down back, I want his explosiveness maximized. If he can indeed really contribute in the passing game this guy is a legitimate threat of a big play after the catch. It will be fun to see him and Jacobs together in sets in a way Dillon really wasn’t with Jones.
All that said, the key to everything in a LaFleur O, even before than ball security, is can he protect well enough to get out there consistently? Without that the ball security won’t even be tested. I think we need to see where he is in that process in the field as there’s good and bad in his college tape. Hopefully it comes together fast and he can be an active part of our O early on.
TKWorldWide
May 09, 2024 at 09:21 am
I think ball security and pass pro can be improved through good coaching. Also agree that when he does get his early chances, he better make the most of them. An early fumble is a pretty sure ticket to the bench.
Minniman
May 09, 2024 at 02:47 pm
He's certainly an intriguing piece!
One under-quoted stat of Lloyds that is intriguing is his 3.8 yards after contact.
He's a lot harder to bring down even after you get your mitts on him - something that I saw as a bit of a weakness of Dillon (who was easy to unbalance and trip - even if he broke a tackle).
MLF uses backs and the backfield way more than people recognize. That, the 2 TE's and decent OL play are what spring the favorable WR matchups.
LLCHESTY
May 08, 2024 at 12:46 pm
Ahman Green's fumbles by year while in Green Bay; 6,5,4,7,7,1(injured) and 4. Packers all time leading rusher.
From what I understand from USC fans that watched all their games his fumbles are usually because he didn't put two hands on the ball when he was fighting for extra yards in a pile. That seems easily correctable.
Alberta_Packer
May 08, 2024 at 04:49 pm
Fumbling also due to trying the extend the play - after 2nd and 3rd efforts.
Leatherhead
May 08, 2024 at 07:31 pm
I think that it is unlikely that Lloyd will get 6 chances to fumble this year. With his history, and our depth at the position, they're not going to leave him on the field enough to fumble 6 times. Somewhere around 2 or 3 they're going to stop giving him the ball when the game is on the line.
Plus, let's remember, Ahman Green is the all time leading rusher, and Lloyd is not. It's kind of like saying a guy strikes out less than Babe Ruth did. Green coughed it up, but he put up 1800 yards on the ground along the way with those 6 fumbles.
Let's calculate: About half of fumbles are lost, so that's 3 turnovers in 1800 yards of offense. That's pretty good, IMO. That's a couple of hundreds of yards of offense with a turnover about every 5 games.
I don't care if he's Earl Campbell . If he doesn't hang onto the rock he won't play.
LLCHESTY
May 08, 2024 at 08:47 pm
Ahman Green didn't hang on to the rock and he still played. IIRC he only had one 1800 yard season rushing. The next year he fumbled 7 times and had 1163 yards rushing. What you did there is called cherry picking.
Like I said above I think Lloyd's fumbling issue can be corrected but if he's ripping off 40 yard runs with regularity like Green did they're likely to forgive the occasional fumble. Green had exactly half as many fumbles as TDs in his career, 37 to 74. I doubt that would be tolerated today, but he did only fumble once in seven playoffs games.
Coldworld
May 09, 2024 at 08:09 am
An interesting debate. Aaron Jones also had a number of key fumbles and gradually became our established main back. I wanted to compare them and Jacobs as a comparison.
The short answer is Green was worse, but neither Green nor Jones were within the range normally considered reasonable.
Jacobs has, for example, fumbled at less than half the rate of Green and 2/3 the rate of Jones based on attempts.
I conclude that Packers teams will put up with a high fumble rate if the player makes significant plays/gains for the team consistently, as both Jones and Green did.
Ahman Green had 37 fumbles. Green rushed for 9,205 yards on 2,056 carries, while adding 2,833 receiving yards on 378 career catches. So Green had 12,088 all purpose yards overall and 37 fumbles, so a fumble about every 327 yards. If you just look at fumbles per attempt (the most commonly cited metric) he fumbled at an average rate of once every 55 attempts.
Aaron Jones has 15 fumbles in his career. 7 seasons for the Packers. He has 1,177 carries for 5,940 yards, 272 catches for 2,076 yards and has scored 63 touchdowns. Jones had 8016 All purpose yards and 15 fumbles, so one every 471 yards gained. On attempts only, it comes down to one every 78 attempts.
Josh Jacobs has 11 fumbles in his career over 5,545 rushing yards on 1,305 carries. He has 1448 receiving yards. So 6993 all purpose yards. That’s a fumble every 635 yards gained. On attempts: one every 118 attempts.
LLCHESTY
May 09, 2024 at 10:33 am
Green only had one fumble in the playoffs in 140 touches, it would be interesting to know what he did differently. I thought maybe he didn't fight for extra yards as much but his average only dipped .1 of yard over his career average, although in his career year(2003) it did dip from 5.3 to 4.6 so there might be some validity there. Also could just be better defenses.
Coldworld
May 10, 2024 at 08:17 am
Green has an issue with excessive sweat production that gave him issues in college as well. That was why he adopted the band he wore where he cradled the ball. He also wore a special absorbent undershirt.
Green never admitted that was the cause directly but he did admit it was a challenge, for example: "I certainly don't want to fumble, but there's a lot of things that factor in," … "I sweat profusely. That made it a little tougher. … I'd rather it snow or be 60 degrees and clear. That's how I've been all my life."
Perhaps the playoffs being later in the year posed less of a problem than earlier in the season?
http://static.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/garber_greg/1457779.html
Leatherhead
May 09, 2024 at 09:19 am
'''''What you did there is called cherry picking. '''
What you did there is nit picking. THE POINT is that Green was a highly productive back, and one of the few ever to get 1800 yards rushing in a season.
Also, Green did not arrive in Green Bay with a reputation as a fumbler, whereas Lloyd does. If Lloyd rips off some good runs,there'll be some forgiveness for a fumble or two. But they won't keep giving him the rock if he fumbles.
LLCHESTY
May 09, 2024 at 10:10 am
Green certainly did arrive in Green Bay with a reputation as a fumbler, that's why Seattle traded him.
Leatherhead
May 09, 2024 at 10:58 am
How did he acquire that? I'm wondering, since Pro-football-reference.com shows he was drafted in 1998 by the Seahawks in the third round. He played sparingly behind Ricky Watters.
In his two years in Seattle, he had 64 touches and lost one fumble. So this reputation was based on........?
LLCHESTY
May 09, 2024 at 01:43 pm
"Ahman Green (above), a former third-round pick from Nebraska, had fallen out of favor with Seattle head coach Mike Holmgren because of his frequent fumbling. Holmgren, the former Green Bay head coach who’d led the 1996 Packers to the Super Bowl XXXI title, had the dual role of coach and general manager and decided to move Green to his old team. It proved to be a colossal mistake."
https://madison.com/5-packers-trade-cb-fred-vinson-and-6th-round-pick-to...
LLCHESTY
May 09, 2024 at 01:46 pm
From the Seattle paper:
"The more Green fell behind, the more he tried to push. That's what led to the fumbles that two sets of Seahawks coaches could not ignore. He fumbled kickoff returns, he fumbled while he ran the ball in games and he fumbled in practice."
Coldworld
May 10, 2024 at 08:21 am
“Green's fumbles are what brought him to Green Bay. He was drafted in the third round of the 1998 draft (No. 76 overall) by the Seattle Seahawks and saw modest action, carrying only 61 times in 30 games. Head coach Mike Holmgren has always had a low tolerance for fumblers and he viewed Green as a terminal case. This is why Sherman was able to trade for Green after he was named the Packers' head coach in 2000.
Sherman, who had worked as an assistant to Holmgren in Green Bay and was his offensive coordinator for a year in Seattle, dealt defensive back Fred Vinson and a sixth-round choice to the Seahawks for Green and their fifth-round pick.“
Greg Garber ESPN column linked in a prior response (and thus I can’t link again)
“He needs to secure that football like it's his first-born son.”
Coach Mike Sherman, on RB Ahman Green's fumbling problem
Leatherhead
May 10, 2024 at 09:28 am
That's the subjective view of a Seattle sports writer. I recall the Packers drafting 3 DBs to help cope with Randy Moss, and then trading one of them for a premium RB who became the leading rusher in franchise history.
The Seattle writer suggests he was a terminal case. Obviously, he was incorrect on that.
Coldworld
May 10, 2024 at 10:17 am
Read the article. Then you’d see that it was no secret to former Seattle OC Sherman or to Green at the time of the trade and that the article fully accepts that the trade was a disaster for Seattle, indeed it’s that acceptance that was the impetus for writing it. Vinson never even played a down for them, to make it worse.
Leatherhead
May 10, 2024 at 12:47 pm
I'm reading words. THE DATA, according to pro-football-reference, paints a different picture
He had 3 fumbles which resulted in ONE turnover. If the standard is that a guy who has one turnover in two years can't be trusted with the ball, then that's going to take quite a few guys out of the picture.
Curiously, he was Seattle's kick returner, which would mean that the coaches were putting a guy they didn't trust to protect the ball back there to receive kicks. Can anybody explain this? .And then you give him away to the Packers for nothing and he becomes their all time leading rusher??
I hate to say bad coaching, but........ I can certainly understand why there would be an interest in promulgating a narrative that Seattle unloaded him because he was a fumbler. I'm not seeing that in the data.
LLCHESTY
May 10, 2024 at 03:44 pm
I literally gave you a quote yesterday where the writer said he fumbled in practice. Holmgren was known to hate fumbles, if Green was fumbling in practice there's little wonder he was traded. It was common knowledge when he got here that was the main reason he was traded.
Being argumentative in this case is just silliness. He was traded because he fumbled a lot and then, big surprise, he got to Green Bay and fumbled a lot.
mnbadger
May 08, 2024 at 01:06 pm
as we learned while AJ33 was here, it's about more than how many fumbles, almost more critical are when in the game and where on the field.
A couple of catastrophic playoff fumbles taint his stellar career before his jersey color changed.
GPG!
Bitternotsour
May 08, 2024 at 01:26 pm
a purple taint is beyond any other. inexcusable, really.
even though Greg Jennings was 100% right about Aaron Rodgers, I can't excuse his lack of judgment on the Vikings
stockholder
May 08, 2024 at 02:03 pm
it took Jones a long time to start.
It will take Loyd a long time to play too.
! fumble; thats all it takes to sit.
LLCHESTY
May 08, 2024 at 06:37 pm
Aaron Jones started as rookie.
Try harder.
10ve 💚
May 08, 2024 at 11:01 pm
"Try harder"
I always like your comments Chesty! But the one above is so very apt for stockholder. 😂😂😂
packer132
May 09, 2024 at 09:00 am
He needs to try another sport, as football is not his forte.
Leatherhead
May 10, 2024 at 12:49 pm
Aaron Jones started 4 games as a rookie.
TXCHEESE
May 09, 2024 at 09:15 am
With the new kickoff rules, he would be an interesting option to put back there with Nixon. As short and shifty as he is, I could see him getting lost in the scrum and breaking some long returns.