Around the NFC North: Off-season Capital
Bears are definitely gonna need it.
By Mike Price
We've discussed how the NFC North teams' offensive and defensive strategies affect their needs this off-season over the past few articles. It's time to go over what they can do about it.
Bears
The Bears have a frightening (frightening to Bears fans because of the potential for unlimited disappointment) amount of off-season capital. Despite having just six picks in the draft, they have the third most draft capital (according to PFF), thanks to two picks in the top nine. They also have around $56mm in cap space, when accounting for Jaylon Johnson's entire franchise tag number and Justin Fields' full $6mm number. They could pretty easily free up $20mm or more by extending Johnson and trading Fields.
Speaking of trading Fields, Bears Twitter was certain they would get first round value or more for Fields as recently as last week. Turns out the Bears aren't getting much interest in a trade for the meh QB. It's gotten to the point that various media members are throwing out the possibility of the Bears drafting Caleb Williams and keeping Fields. That's a great idea if you want to spend $6mm on Fields to make sure you don't get anything out of him. But front office/coaching staff pairings that have a north of 80% chance of not making it to next off-season do weird stuff.
Let's say they do trade Fields for a second round pick. They'd then have two high firsts, probably a mid second, a third, a couple of fourths, and no 6th or 7th. Do you trust Poles with that ammo? It seems like a foregone conclusion that they will take Williams with the first pick - even though he's been leaking that he doesn't want to play for them for months. Who will Poles take with the ninth pick? And do you really want him in charge of $75mm of cap space? This could be how you end up paying $20mm for Jonathan Greenard and $15mm for Derrick Henry.
Vikings
The Vikings have a good amount ($37mm) of cap space on paper, but basically all of that could be spoken for by players who were on the team last season. Justin Jefferson, Danielle Hunter, and Kirk Cousins could all still be re-signed by the team. Of course, right now it looks like only Justin Jefferson will be. If rumors are correct and he is paid north of $34mm, they can use cap shenanigans to make the 2024 number much lower than $34mm, but you don't want to push too much out into the future when you don't even know who your QB is going to be.
Speaking of a QB, the Vikings have 67th percentile level draft capital in nine picks. How much of that will go toward trading up for a QB? And how much of next year's capital will have to be in that trade as well? Starting with the 11th pick, they very well might need to trade this year's first and second plus multiple future firsts just to get to third to take whoever is leftover. Or they could wait and take a chance with Bo Nix or J.J. McCarthy at 11. Just make sure Justin Jefferson is lined up on the right side of the field.
My guess is that they extend Jefferson and leave $20mm or so to take a big bite out of the massive safety market in free agency. Maybe try to sign an impact d-lineman, too. And then trade the house for a QB.
Lions
The Lions have a fairly straight forward seven draft picks with four in the top 92. They'll likely gather a few more with trade downs, as well. Their salary cap situation is just as dependent on re-signings as the Vikings. They need to keep the Sun God and potentially extend Jared Goff. They have $51mm to do it.
The Sun God will cost at least $28mm and Goff would come in far higher than his current number ($22mm) - if Baker Mayfield can be rumored to get a $40mm/year contract, you know Goff's agent is starting at $45mm.
Last off-season, the Lions chose to use their draft capital on the run game on both sides and their salary cap on bad defensive backs. There's a good chance they could get far better for far less money in the defensive backfield this time around but I'll bet their draft strategy changes. They need a secondary pass rusher and they probably want to continue adding o-line depth.
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Mike Price is a lifelong Packers fan who recently moved form Utah to Stoughton (a Madison suberb). You can follow him on twitter at @themikeprice.
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Comments (26)
WestCoastPackerBacker
March 07, 2024 at 04:03 pm
Is it really true that Williams has been leaking that he doesn't want to play for CHI? I thought that was all put to rest?
Brewcity_BearsFan
March 07, 2024 at 04:45 pm
Last week he said he was excited about playing in Chicago.
I still prefer keeping Fields, drafting Harrison, and either o line or pass rush at 9.
ricky
March 07, 2024 at 05:56 pm
Williams excited about playing for the Bears? The team that hasn't had a franchise QB since Sid Luckman. Every three or four years (at most), they get a QB they think is going to be great, and after one or two good seasons, they're gone. Caleb Williams knows this; he also knows he has no choice if he is drafted by the Bears. Unless he can somehow manage to do the same thing that Eli Manning or John Elway did, which was to effectively choose their team. But that is extremely rare. Doesn't matter. The Bears, like the Jets, have no clue as to how to draft or develop a QB. All Williams can hope for is that his career isn't ruined by his time in Chicago.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 07, 2024 at 08:58 pm
Which is why da Bares would be a better team if they keep Fields; how much draft capital are they going to continue to frazzle away?
T7Steve
March 08, 2024 at 07:22 am
Does it matter who your QB is if you can't even block out the cheerleaders on the sidelines?
murf7777
March 08, 2024 at 09:01 am
Yes, please keep Fields. Don’t really matter thou, because da Bears still suck.
Leatherhead
March 07, 2024 at 04:05 pm
The Bears. Look, I'd love to be able to say they still suck, but the reality is that last year, they were 7-10. We beat them twice and finished 9-8. Against the rest of the NFL, we were about the same. We scored a few more points than they did and gave up a few less.
If the Bears would put me in charge of the team, I'd trade down from #1, keep Fields, put a much better team around him, and start developing a successor. Naturally, this won't happen. They'll change horses, again, and go with Caleb Williams. If this guy is really the guy that people say he is, that could be bad news for us, but I already think Justin Fields is one of the biggest weapons in the league. Bears bottom line: They're almost certain to put a stronger team on the field this year than they did last, and they'll almost certainly improve on their 7-10 record.
The Vikings , if they follow form, will get an FA QB rather than try to get a guy in the draft. That's how they roll. There's no real reason why they'd have to end up in last place next year, but I think they will. I'm guessing a rookie QB and injuries are going to dog them all season.
The Lions have the defense that many Packer fans wish for: It stuffs the run pretty good, even though the Lions gave up more points than we did. They do have the division's best offense, but how do they improve that? This year, playing a first place schedule and against improved division opponents,they will win fewer games than they did last year (12). I do not believe I will see the Lions in the Championship game again in my lifetime.....57, 91, and 23? Looks like about every 33 years and I'd be over 90 by then. This is the zenith of the Lions. Next year, they won't be in the Championship game. Maybe they won't win the division, or win 12 games, or even make the playoffs. Fingers will point,changes will be made, and Dan Campbell will go down in lore as the coach who blew that enormous lead in the Championship game and screwed Detroit out of a trip to the Super Bowl.
So it is written. So it shall be done.
Starrbrite
March 08, 2024 at 08:28 am
Good post LH—-and quoting Rames II—-pure poetry.
Brewcity_BearsFan
March 07, 2024 at 04:48 pm
Jaylon Johnson just got extended. So that is one big piece done.
I would like to see Chicago go after Barkley, and maybe Justin Simmons.
Leatherhead
March 07, 2024 at 05:35 pm
Why pursue Barkley?
The Bears, for better or worse, have repeatedly shown that they can draft a good RB. Why spend FA coin on an old guy when you could upgrade the line and get by with younger, cheaper guys.? For that matter, what's wrong with what they have?
The guy the Bears got last year, Roschon Johnson, was a guy I wanted. Along with the other two RBs, the Bears got 1800 yards of offense out of this trio. Add in another 650 from Fields and these guys create a lot of offense.
And now, we might have some actual pass catchers in Chicago. Last year, Moore had a real good season. He was targeted more times than all of the other WRs combined. And of course, Cole Kmet, who is essentially their second leading receiver with 90 targets for 720 yards.
They hired a new OC and QBcoach. They could draft that superduper WR and improve the blocking They can get Caleb Williams, AND that superduper WR, and add it to what they have, and this should be a better than average offense.
Truthfully, I usually pull for the Bears 15 weeks each season, and hope they get slaughtered in the other two. Bears fans should be excited, and as a Packer fan, I'm excited to see how they'll screw it up.
Bitternotsour
March 07, 2024 at 06:22 pm
Bear fans are superior to Viking fans in just about every way. I mean, I hated Ditka, hated him as a tight end, hated him as a coach, but the Bears have been bad for decades, historically bad, that's just entertainment. I feel bad for whomever winds up as their quarterback, cause you know it's going to go south.
Mitch Trubisky, HA!
Leatherhead
March 07, 2024 at 06:51 pm
The Bears, and the Vikings, both have long histories of finding ways to screw things up, as well as some bad luck and misfortune along the way. The reality is that since the 1970 Merger, The Bears have won 1 Super Bowl and the Packers have won 4 (soon to be 5). The Vikings and Lions have combined for 0. I can give some respect to the Bears, but the Vikings haven't done squat since they entered the league and the Lions have been in the Championship game only twice since I was a toddler. They are the Jets of the NFC.
I predict this year, the Bears will be better than 7-10. I think they're our chief rival.
LLCHESTY
March 07, 2024 at 09:28 pm
The Packers have won 4 SBs since the merger? 🙄
Leatherhead
March 07, 2024 at 11:23 pm
Nice nit
Coldworld
March 08, 2024 at 09:27 am
The Bears are a lottery. They could be a lot better or in a god awful mess. There’s a lot more to it than QB or even offense. As to the Lions, well now the real test starts. They aren’t the Millen led farce you seem to have ingrained, but their costs are going up as the legacy of high picks and Goff start to become due. They have benefitted from the weakest our division has been for most of the last 2 seasons. Their D is still a pretender. Now we see if they truly can build or start to pay the price of lower picks and cap together. The Vikings are stuck in no man’s land, but they have done promise on D.
The real game changer this year was not in Chicago, Detroit or Minneapolis. It was the emergence of Jordan Love and a cadre of unheralded young skill players. That changed the anticipated divisional landscape for our rivals. Now we seem to be threatening to shed our passive defensive mindset of the last decade and more. That too, if successful, changes the paradigm. The Packers are the ones disrupting the expected landscape. That’s a good place to be. Let them catch up, yes even the Lions.
Leatherhead
March 08, 2024 at 07:19 pm
I understood the nature of the Detroit football team from well before Millen was hired. Ingrained? Yeah, until they show me I’m wrong about them, and that second half choke against the 49ers doesn’t convince me.
12-5 last year, a tougher schedule this year. The long roll downhill begins.
Coldworld
March 08, 2024 at 09:30 am
The Bears are a lottery. They could be a lot better or in a god awful mess. There’s a lot more to it than QB or even offense. As to the Lions, well now the real test starts. They aren’t the Millen led farce you seem to have ingrained, but their costs are going up as the legacy of high picks and Goff start to become due. They have benefitted from the weakest our division has been for most of the last 2 seasons. Their D is still a pretender. Now we see if they truly can build or start to pay the price of lower picks. The Vikings are stuck in no man’s land, but they have done promise on D.
The real game changer this year was not in Chicago, Detroit or Minneapolis. It was the emergence of Jordan Love and a cadre of unheralded young skill players. That changed the anticipated divisional landscape for our rivals. Now we seem to be threatening to shed our passive defensive mindset of the last decade and more. That too, if successful, changes the paradigm.
Let them catch up, yes even the Lions. Don’t worry about draft picks who’ve yet to play just because they are high. A few stellar hits won’t fill all the holes in that bearskin and there are no such things as certainties in any draft however early. The Packers are the ones disrupting the expected landscape. That’s a good place to be.
Don’t dismiss rivals as idiots. That’s a quick way to hell, but don’t plan for their brilliance either: do the job here and we already have enough in place not simply projected to form a platform to make what they do less significant.
Brewcity_BearsFan
March 08, 2024 at 07:59 am
Oh I love Johnson. I think he would be a great complimentary back to Barkley, who is only 27.
I like Herbert too. I just am not sure he is durable enough to be the featured back, similar to how many Packer fans may feel about Aaron Jones.
Barkley is truly a dynamic back. He has been, and can still be a game changer. The Giants have had worse olines then Chicago, and he was still a top 5 back.
WestCoastPackerBacker
March 07, 2024 at 04:51 pm
At some point, a ton of high draft picks starts to pay off for a team (like HOU in 2023. Is Ryan Poles better at building a team than Ryan Pace was? Pace overruled his scouts to pick Trubisky over Mahomes, or we would be in a world of hurt in GB right now. The Justin Fields pick with the trade up was better than what the Pats ended up with in Mac Jones, though Micah Parsons was the next pick after Fields and he's been an All-Pro 3 of his 5 years in the league. That doesn't make the GM look awesome, when they have to pick a QB again before the Fields rookie deal is done.
Now with starting over at QB, it just depends on whether Williams can show his issues in college can be overcome. He's confident enough, but this is a different world with the NIL. These college players can make buck. I read one article that Wiliams has already made $10M. How hungry will he be versus a guy like Love who had to prove himself and earn his pay?
Leatherhead
March 07, 2024 at 06:09 pm
You know, we sit here and play armchair GM, but the real guys,like Poles, and Pace, have 20 years of their life invested in a job that requires 70 hour weeks and frequent travel. And now, they're at the the top, and they are making millions of dollars, and it can all go away if they do stupid stuff like taking Trubisky over Mahomes. That's why they're generally a helluva lot more cautious about things.
Starting over at QB with Williams is fine, as long as he's The Answer. But history suggests he probably isn't. Overall #1 QBs who've taken the team that drafted them to the Super Bowl isn't a long list. And of course, this is the Bears.
The Bears could trade down from #1, stay with Field and put some guys around him, and then use that #9 on their QB of the future. They could actually try patience and developing a QB, like that team to the North.
Bitternotsour
March 07, 2024 at 06:32 pm
The Bears aren't built for winning. It takes more than a draft to undue the way they are wired.
Like Detroit, they may have a moment, but they fall back into their basic DNA. Detroit is about to fall back to earth. I'm glad they got to have a little fun and optimism this year, because that particular moment has passed, their chariot about to turn into a pumpkin.
T7Steve
March 08, 2024 at 07:39 am
I'm sorry to say that we shouldn't write off Detroit yet. As long as their O-line is healthy and they get another edge rusher to account for they're going to be a handful.
Just like the Packers need to do to take the next step, they need to solidify the LOS. Both have issues in the D backfield, and I trust the Packers to do a better job of fixing that.
Coldworld
March 07, 2024 at 07:03 pm
Worry about what other teams have when they have it. If I’m them I worry about why they are still in this position (Chicago and Minnesota) and whether their new leadership can navigate the tightening of the purse strings and still continue to improve in the case of Detroit.
As for us. I think we have the best and cheapest O in the division and that’s with Love, who may already be the best QB and still going up. Now we don’t have a passive mentality on D either. Let them worry about what we do and if Hafley can change the calculus on D as Love and Co have on O.
The Packers should be worrying others. We weren’t supposed to be where we are on O and our D might just come to play again for the first time since Woodson and co. Harrison may be great but better than Love? That’s no certainty. They’ve got a long way to go even if he is from day one. I’d love them to keep Fields as a starter, but they won’t, sadly. In that event, they would be predestined to peak at mediocre.
Sit back and enjoy being on the up not clinging to yesterdays.
GB@Germany
March 08, 2024 at 01:38 am
NFC north was the closest conference already and the chance is high, it gets even closer.
The potential the Bears have, is scarry.
With a good draft they have every chance to even win the division.
Defense was solid already and with a propper QB, the remaining picks and cap space a competent GM could set them up for the playoffs (so there is hope this might not happen).
Without the injury of Cousins the Vikings could have had a great season 2023. I see them now more as a rebuild. But maybe they land Russ for a year veteran minimum to extend their playoff window.
The Lions are in a decent position to further rise. Another good draft and some improvement in the secondary and they will roll again. Especially as a German it still hurts to see Amon Ra shining in Detroit and not in GB. We could have drafted him instead of...
Won`t hurt as much, after we have won in NO next year. GPG
Cheezehead72
March 08, 2024 at 06:07 am
I read an article about the Vikings trading for Fields. i could see that happening if they can get him for a 2nd or 3rd. Yes I do not believe the Bears will trade him for a 3rd.
jont
March 08, 2024 at 08:47 am
Lions:
I didn't know Goff was getting 'only' $22 mln. That's not a Purdy level bargain, but it does free up salary money for a lot of other players. Now the Lions have to pay Goff regular starter money so $20 mln will have to come from somewhere. Maybe they've got the cap space this season but next? Their window is closing.
Bears:
I like Leatherhead's reco: trade the first pick, use #9 on a QB for 2025, and take what you can get (if only a comp pick) for Fields after one more season. It simply seems to me that a team is either in the playoffs or they need to build the roster... no in between... and the Bears should stop fooling themselves into thinking this season will be the one.
Vikings:
Cursed. They were on their way with Kirk and hit bad luck. Now, suddenly, they're screwed. Wilson? I like him but in MN he'd be a short term fix at best; they'd need this season to re-tool so 2025 would be their shot. Then done... again. I feel bad for Jefferson.
GB:
On the way up. A bit of growth from all the young guys, a more aggressive D, and a couple off season additions will make this year's team a solid contender.