Why Paying Jordan Love is Worth It
Has Jordan Love shown he's worth big money? All signs point to yes.
By MaggieLoney
Quarterback Jordan Love is expected to sign a new deal with the Packers very soon. Potentially before I even write this and get it posted. That’s how soon. I’ve had a lot of conversations with Packers fans over the last few months, and there are mixed feelings on whether or not Green Bay should break the bank to sign Love. Has he proven enough to earn the mega deal we all expect him to? I think yes, and here are some numbers to back up why.
Also, a quick shout out to Andrew Mertig of the Pack-A-Day Podcast and The Draft Fellows. If you don’t follow his work already, you really should. He’s the one that originally split the Love season into two halves and gave me the idea to do some deeper digging.
Love finished the 2023 regular season throwing for 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.
If you look at the first eight games of his season, Love threw for 1,720 yards, 12 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Extending those numbers over a full 17-game season, that turns into 3,655 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 17 picks. Okay numbers, but I’m not sure the Packers are convinced he’s the guy at that point.
Now if you look at the last nine regular season games, Love posted 2,439 yards with 20 touchdowns and only three picks. If you extend those numbers for a 17-game season, that amounts to 4,607 yards, 37 touchdowns, and only five interceptions.
As Mertig pointed out on the Pack-A-Day Podcast, those numbers are very close to Aaron Rodgers’ MVP numbers in 2021, when he threw for 4,115 yards with 37 touchdowns and four interceptions. Now, this isn’t to say that Love is going to play like an MVP for the 2024 season, but he could. And he posted those numbers with one of the youngest offenses in the NFL.
While it’s only a nine-game sample size, I wanted to go back and compare the first eight games of his season to some other notable quarterbacks who either just got paid or are about to get paid, too.
Let’s start with Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence who just signed a five-year, $275 million deal with Jacksonville. In 2021, playing all 17 games as a rookie, Lawrence threw for 3,641 yards with 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. That’s almost identical to Love’s extrapolated eight-game data, but with 13 fewer touchdowns.
A quarterback from Love's 2020 draft class, Tua Tagovailoa, should also be getting paid in the near future. He only started nine games his rookie season, so if we apply the same metrics to his season and extend those numbers out for a full 17 games, he would have 3,426 yards, 21 touchdowns, and nine picks.
Jalen Hurts, a fellow member of the 2020 quarterback class, wasn’t playing like a true quarterback during the 2020 season. If we take his first season as a starter in 2021 where he played 15 games, he threw for 3,144 yards, 16 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Hurts signed a five-year, $255 million deal back in April.
We aren’t sure where Love will land when it comes to contract details, but the rumors are sounding like anywhere from $55 million a year to upwards of $60 million-plus. But if Love plays like he did during the final nine-game stretch of the regular season, that could look like a bargain.
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Maggie Loney is a writer for Cheesehead TV and podcaster for Pack's What She Said. Find her on Bluesky at @MaggieJLoney.
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Comments (15)
ImaPayne2
July 26, 2024 at 11:13 am
First, there is no choice. You made him your pick, groomed him and he proved he could do the job at least for one year, you have nothing else going for you. He's the guy going forward.
Since'75
July 27, 2024 at 05:13 pm
No choice huh?
Interesting.
The following isn't really an indictment on the signing, it's a realistic look at the reality of the situation.
Funny thing is they did have a choice.
Love was signed for 2024 for around 10 million, maybe something under that.
Love and his agent did well though....congrats.
Love got a check from the Packers a few days ago.
75 million, before he starts the regular season.
People clowned Rodgers for what he made, cried he wouldn't take a pay cut to '"help the team". Because...he was too selfish?
The thing with Rodgers getting paid, is he did something first.
Love is getting paid on potential and (fingers crossed)
So in essence, the Packers could have looked at him for another year.
Would it be more expensive, probably.
But what's a handful of millions, when you're talking about nearly a quarter of a billion dollars?
After week 7 of last season, even Love supporters were talking about replacing him in the draft.
As it is now, Love is the highest paid QB in the league, or damn close.
Lets hope we don't see too many more 4th quarter brain fart Favre moments in the 4th quarter, like we saw Love do at San Fran.
Yes, good run the last 9 games, fantastic game against the Cowboys, we all saw the 49'er game.
Me?.....i'd have waited another season.
13TimeChamps
July 27, 2024 at 07:03 pm
"Me?.....i'd have waited another season."
They didn't even ask you!? I'm shocked. Either way, enjoy the season on your couch with your bag of Cheetos while gazing at your Rodgers poster(s).
Since'75
July 29, 2024 at 03:11 pm
WOW😲
You gonna be ok junior?
What is this, a football opinion site, or 7th grade recess?
Seriously...get a grip man.
tonyorth
July 26, 2024 at 11:36 am
Anyone seriously doubting his value is blind to what has unfolded in training camp, where QB2, 3, and 4 have coughed up INT after INT. Is JeffH turning his guys loose? Yes he is and it is a beautiful thing to watch grow. But the other side of that coin is that high level QB play is all about reading what the defense is really giving you, getting the read right, and timing the right throw. Hard to not wonder how well Jeff's bew look D would do against QB1, where he won 9 games last year, crushed the Cowgals in Dallas, and nearly best SF away.
People yammer that we haven't seen enough from Love, like great QB play is at root a function of random chance and 'just happens'. "He'll revert to the mean," they claim. If he was a mercurial personality I might worry, but JL has been the same guy through his entire first season. NOW you are seeiing the gap between JL and the rest of the staff and anyone thinking Cliifford or Mr. Tulane are the answer is a fool or has some sort of bias.
We are amateurs. When a professional like Josh Jacobs states publicly that he came to Green Bay to play with a QB he compared to Mahommes, that should speak volumes. Pay the man. Love IS the dude.
SicSemperTyrannis
July 26, 2024 at 12:26 pm
The truly scary thing about JL10 is we've had NO glimpse of his "ceiling;" how good can he become?!?
Areas of opportunity:
1) the easy layups, aka check downs. The last game is a perfect example of this. His first throw of the game was a can't miss to Aaron Jones, and it was simply uncatchable. That was far from the only time that happened last season, too. Compare this to the first 2 point conversion JL10 threw, which was PERFECT. Whatever was going on in his mind while making that play, that same focus on every check down would not only transform his game but elevate the team, extending drives. It would go a long way towards making this team unstoppable.
2) JL10 was criticized for accuracy on long throws. Again, he threw some DIMES. This tells me accuracy isn't really the problem, consistency is. I was at TC last year, and he did NOT have happy feet. He learned that playing behind a leaky O line. While I won't take anything away from the fact that the O line did improve throughout the season, no matter how quickly JL10 got rid of the ball there was almost always pressure in his face within a split second later.
If JL10 has regained his normal footwork this off-season, and only attempts off platform throws when they're actually needed, that alone would elevate his game significantly.
3) tuck and run. Of course everyone is glad he'd rather stay in the pocket and find someone down field, but sometimes it's just not there. He's always been able to slide, learning when to run, even if he goes for less than 10 yards, would elevate his whole game. His last play is an example, this was one option available to him.
4) Play action fake. Peyton Manning was a master at this. I lived in Indy when he came to town, and he often faked out the camera crew. I don't know what these two have been doing together, but I hope this is at least part of it!
None of these are major changes, or anything JL10 can't do. Putting all these elements together?!? The sky's the limit!
GPG
Since'75
July 27, 2024 at 05:41 pm
Yes, because the 1st week of training camp tells you all you need to know.
Reggie came because God told him to. The Packers just happened to offer the most money.
The Packers offered Jacobs the most money, he then endorsed Love.
How about just bringing your new QB an apple?
If Jacobs endorses Love...then PAY the man.
*Logic
Ok, lets speak volumes.....as far as the Mahomes comparison, Love is only 3 SB wins behind, 3 SB MVP's behind, 2 NFL MVP's behind, 2 First team All-Pro awards behind, 6 time Pro Bowl's behind.
Lets do this!!
But Love makes more money than Mahomes?
It's a crazy world we live in isn't it? 🤪
*************
Right now...Mahomes IS the dude.
Lets not get it twisted.
You're the man, when you're the man.
Not before you win anything.
WestCoastPackerBacker
July 26, 2024 at 11:59 am
I saw a comparison that only 2 QBs have done the following in 1 season (Mahomes in 2022 and Love in 2023)
400+ passing yards
30+ passing TDs
200+ rushing yards
4+ rushing TDs
15 or fewer turnovers
30 or fewer sacks
I think that speaks volumes of Love's potential, given that he did all that his first season, including some games that were real stinkers. It shows how high he rose later in the season.
Zapato
July 26, 2024 at 12:13 pm
Whatever the contract result is, he just needs to get his butt into camp and start showing everyone why he's worth whatever he's going to get paid. I'm sure it'll be enough. I'm also sure that if he wants to win Super Bowls, being the highest paid player in the league isn't his number 1 concern.
Did you hear that Aaron?
Swisch
July 26, 2024 at 03:48 pm
It's hard to say after only one season for Love as a starter. In the playoffs, he was great against the Cowboys and for much of the game against the 49ers -- but he lost that game for the Packers with two truly terrible interceptions in the fourth quarter.
Don Majkowski, Daunte Culpepper, and Colin Kaepernick were once sensational.
Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence looked great in 2022, not so much in 2023.
***
Let's hope Gute and LaFleur are making the right decision about Love based on their real evaluation of his talent and character.
It's a huge risk to not sign Love, but it's also a huge risk to sign him.
I'm not saying to let go of Love lightly, but am saying to not sign him at all costs.
I'm excited about the Packers in 2024 either way.
***
P.S. I'm not all that concerned about what Clifford and Pratt have done in the first week of training camp. It seems lots of fans were willing to cast aside Love last season as late as November. I wonder how many of those are now saying to sign him at all costs.
stockholder
July 26, 2024 at 04:30 pm
1 year isn't enough to judge any athlete.
IF he's that great- Use the franchise Tag.
That is what it's for.
Swisch
July 26, 2024 at 05:55 pm
I like your line of thinking, stockholder, although I think Love is already under contract for this upcoming season of 2024.
The Packers could use the franchise tag in 2025, though, and even again in 2026 (if I understand correctly).
That may seem to be an unfair approach on the part of the Packers; at the same time, though, I think it's unfair for Love to hold out these days when he is under contract.
It's not a good look for Love, or a good sign for his leadership of the Packers in the future.
Also, if Love wants something like $60 million or so per season, it makes me wonder about his leadership in that he's taking away money from his teammates, who are fortunate if they make $10 million.
Plus, he's weakening the team down the road as far as keeping and gaining top players.
***
Here's what I'd do:
If Gute and LaFleur really think Love is a top-10 quarterback in the NFL, offer him $50 per year for four years for a total of $200 million, with $70 million guaranteed.
That could include this season, which means a big raise for Love.
If Love isn't interested, he can either play under the contract he already agreed to just a year ago, or we'll try to trade him.
I hope he stays and is happy to be a Packer, but I'm willing to let him go.
Either way, I'm excited about the Packers of 2024.
stockholder
July 26, 2024 at 07:35 pm
Yes - -He is under contract-
I'm thinking next year.
And if he can duplicate his 1 year numbers.
He earned it.
Turophile
July 27, 2024 at 05:14 am
I have no problem with Jordan Love's deal as far as his market value goes - he got paid at the top end of QBs and I think his talent is equal to that. I do have a problem with how that impacts teams generally, with top end QBs.
As QB pay gets more and more out of synch relative to other positions you are investing over 21% of the cap in one player............ and that has a real impact on paying other top performers at positions that are not QB.
It is getting to the point where you have to 'go young' with such a team, to allow you to keep your best non-QB players - and even then you will lose some good ones. Either that or you push money into the future and begin a boom-bust cycle to stay under the cap. Also, going young as a solution, only works while you are getting a high hit-rate on your draft picks.
Having a top QB inevitably hamstrings you in terms of overall roster quality and it remains to be seen whether in the future teams with top end QBs will dominate with SB wins, or fall to teams with lower paid QBs and more overall talent at the non-QB positions.
Since'75
July 27, 2024 at 08:04 pm
I just want to make sure i'm reading you correctly Maggie, in stating your case why Love deserved this contract, and i respect your right to your opinion, after all, we're all Packer fans.
But i question your road map of getting there.
Did you really take the last 9 weeks of Loves season, prorate the earlier weeks based of those 9 games, and therefore gave him new full season stats based on this fiction?
Are we playing 'make believe' this happened in some way?
Then, are we comparing those make believe stats, to Rodgers 'real' stats in 2021?
WOW!!!
************
The other thing that struck me as odd, is comparing what other players are making by looking at their money and stats.
Just because Trevor Lawrence signed for 275 million, doesn't mean it was a good contract for the team.
Last i checked Lawrence hasn't done much in the NFL.
Just because the Browns signed Watson to a 230 million dollar deal, doesn't mean it was a good signing for the Browns.
That 230 million, all FULLY guaranteed, was a "smart move by the Browns" ....said NO ONE
What has Tua Tagovailoa done for his 212 million?
0-1 in the playoffs
Lamar Jackson Recently signed for 260 million, his playoff performance has been largely unimpressive going 2-4 with a 75 passer rating.
Jackson has won some awards to his credit, but mostly do to his legs imo.
If we compared players contracts with legitimacy, shouldn't all players contracts then be 'fully' guaranteed, just because that is what Deshaun Watson's got?
No...just because it happened, doesn't mean it was the smart thing to do.
What's scary to me is the guy who signed off on that Watson deal, is now a part owner of the Bucks.
**************
In closing....
I don't bemoan Love for getting his money...well done!!
But....i do think that QB contracts are getting way out of hand.
Favre made 98 million from the Packers in 16 seasons.
Remember, it wasn't long ago that the rate for a franchise QB was 30 million?
But then, i can also remember when i could watch all the games from my cable box...lol
How long is it until NFL QB's are making 100 million a year?
At the current rate, it will be in about 10-12 years.