What Does A Successful Season Look Like For The Packers? And Other Existential Questions.
How can we define expectations, in the face of a changed season?
By Kalani Jones
As the 2025 regular season rounds the final corner of this eighteen week marathon, it’s time for every team in the league to get a little existential.
For some teams, it’s an exercise in wondering “What went wrong?”. They’ve likely already known that this season would end in failure for months. In Las Vegas, the Raiders are probably wondering why they drafted a running back instead of a foundational offensive tackle, or why they hired a 74 year old head coach. The Arizona Cardinals are staring the prospect of diving head first into yet another full on rebuild, complete with another QB and Head Coaching search. The Minnesota Vikings might be scratching their heads about how they let not one, not two, but three starting QBs slip through their fingers (Darnold, Jones, and Rodgers), in favor of their JJ McCarthy experiment, in spite of their Super Bowl aspirations.
While the Packers are very much alive in the grand scheme of things, they aren’t immune from this kind of reckoning. It’s a very different area though, one that is deep within the DNA of sports itself. The spirit of competition demands winning: winning in the playoffs against the highest of competition in your sport, and ultimately of course, climbing the lofty peak of championships.
For 90% of the season, it’s been clear that a championship is the goal. Let’s take it all the way back to the genesis. In a now famous press conference, GM Brian Gutekunst ramped up the internal pressure on the team. His full quote:“You always have some disappointments in the year," Gutekunst told reporters on Thursday. "I think, for me, the thing that's been on my mind as we've concluded this season is we need to continue to ramp up our sense of urgency. These opportunities don't come (very often). The life of a player in the National Football League is not very long. We've got a bunch of good guys in that locker room, got a bunch of talented guys in that locker room, and yeah, I think it's time that we start competing for championships, right? I think they're ready. Like I said, I think they are wired right. I think that group is the kind of guys that can do that. At the end of the day, you've got to go do it. ... I'm excited about the group, but the sense of urgency, not getting complacent… Some of these guys have now proven themselves to be NFL football players and have attained that, but what's out there for us as a team that we're willing to commit to and sacrifice for?"
Gutekunst, I think it’s fair to say, held up his end of the bargain in that statement. In the ultimate “All In” move, he acquired Micah Parsons at the eleventh hour of the offseason, and the rest is history. The Packers were suddenly “Super Bowl or Bust”. Whether that idea is fair or not, that was the expectation, and it was the answer to that central idea I mentioned earlier. “What does a successful season look like for the Packers?”
116 days later, the Packers stand on the precipice of making the playoffs with another Green Bay win or Lions loss, but injuries all across the roster have stunted the lofty expectations that were created on that fateful day.
Now, at the risk of getting too existential about this silly little game we all love too much, where does the team stand now? What can we, as fans, reasonably expect out of the Green Bay Packers? There’s a number of ways that the season can end from this point on. Well, four to be exact.
The Packers miss the playoffs
This one is probably the easiest possibility to parse. Even with the team as injured as it is, failing to make the playoffs would leave this season as an abject failure.
For one thing, it would mean that the team failed to win either of the two remaining games on its schedule. Losing to the Ravens would be one thing. Baltimore finds itself in an extremely similar situation to Green Bay, after all. It’s possible that, after the Parsons trade, this was the most predicted Super Bowl matchup in the league, as two powerhouse teams looked poised to finally get over the hump. Instead, neither will (probably) win their division, and enter week 17 with their backs to the wall; Baltimore a little more than Green Bay. So if they drop one to the Ravens, that’s maybe understandable.
Losing to the fighting JJ McCarthys in a win or go home scenario? Unforgivable, embarrassing, and undeniably the final piece in a season of failure. For one, that means the Lions get to go to the playoffs in Green Bay’s place, the Cowboys would get a top 18 pick, and there would probably be some questions surrounding Matt LaFleur’s job security.
That last part becomes extra important in this particular scenario, and it’s the only one in which MLF's job even comes into question, in my opinion. Losing these last two games would almost certainly mean that the team was unable to overcome the rash of injuries. How much blame, then, falls to LaFleur? Do the injuries lend credence to his case, as a situation that no one could have overcome? Or, does the front office decide that the lack of a playoff appearance was below a metaphorical line in the sand that they had decided on before the season? Personally, I think there’s no way in hell that the Packers move on from LaFleur, at least this offseason.
The Packers make the playoffs, but lose in the wild card round.
Man, this is a painful possibility. Especially, and as we will assume will happen for the rest of this article, the Packers end up playing the Bears in the first round.
The Packers and the Bears, despite having a rivalry that is over a hundred years old and spans 212 games total, have only met each other in the playoffs twice. The first time was in the 1941 Western Divisional, which the Bears won 33-14. Nearly seventy years later, the two teams met in the 2010 NFC Championship Game, which the Packers won 21-14 on their way to a Super Bowl title.
The stakes in this one would be just a little higher. Maybe even enough to outshine the rocky season, short of a Super Bowl ring? Losing this game would definitely mean that the Packers’ 2025 season was a failure, despite persevering through all of their injuries to make the playoffs in the first place.
The Packers only win one playoff game
Now, of course, the inverse. The Packers manage to win that historical game (again, we are assuming that it’s against Chicago), whether it ends up taking place in Green Bay or, more likely, Chicago. Sending the Bears packing, especially after this last game, would feel all the sweeter, right? It would raise Jordan Love’s playoff record to 2-2, and provide the Packers with a lot of much needed momentum, as they look ahead to the 2026 season.
In most scenarios, with the Packers being the likely 7th seed for the third year in a row, beating the Bears would mean a trip out west to face Seattle, who currently hold the NFC’s 1st seed. In this alternate universe, the Packers are unable to escape that House of Horrors with a win. Does that change the calculus at all? Considering the expectations of growth and success that this team had for itself, even before the Parsons trade, would that really be enough to call this season a success?
The Packers reach the NFC Championship game, the Super Bowl, or win the whole damn thing.
These scenarios, however. Oh boy, I’m getting giddy just thinking about it.
First off, the obvious. The Packers are able to take their injury lumps in stride, and overcome them better than anyone could have ever predicted. They make the playoffs, beat the Bears, upset the #1 seed Seahawks in their own house. In these scenarios, it's pretty clear what the catalyst of such an unprecedented run would have been. One Jordan Alexander Love.
This was, of course, the plan before the season. The defense could play well enough to keep the Packers in every game they played, while Jordan and the rest of the offense kept up the pressure with consistent point scoring. To see that version of the Packers, even without their superstars in Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft, or Devonte Wyatt in the middle of the defense? It would be eerily similar to the 2010 Super Bowl team that won the championship while having 16 players on the injured reserve list. Maybe the Packers really are destined to fulfill the ancient prophecy, and Love will become the next Packers QB to win the Super Bowl at age 27. He’d also join Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers as QBs to win the Super Bowl in their third season as the team’s starting QB.
Hmmm. Maybe the Packers would also have to beat the Bears on their way to the Super B- oh wait, yeah that’s in there… What about losing your star TE halfway through the season to a knee injury? Check. Did the Packers sign a big run-stuffing DT late in the season? Oh, that’s right they did.
Maybe it’s just destiny.
Now, as fun as this hypothetical discussion has been, the reality of course is that one of these scenarios is going to come true. We, as fans, are going to have to choose the standard to which we should be holding this beaten and bruised version of the Packers to.
Is it really fair to even have these discussions in the first place? Maybe assigning value to a season based on wins isn’t fair to the thousands of hours that the players have dedicated to getting to this league in the first place. Maybe the real metric of a successful season is the friends we made along the way?
Okay, that one was a little much.
These are all rhetorical questions of course, but I am genuinely interested to hear what all of you have to say on this topic. Where does the line of expectations go when the team is so affected by something so far outside of their control? How much does historical context weigh into those expectations? Is there such a thing as a successful, yet championship-less season anymore?
Personally, I think the wild card round is the true test of subjectivity in this discussion. To me, the bare minimum of a "successful" season is making the playoffs. Do they need to win that game? Well, that’s for you to decide.
PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.
__________________________
Co-Owner of the thirteen time world champion Green Bay Packers. Sometimes I write about them. Follow me on Twitter at https://x.com/kjones_in_co and on Substack for film breakdowns!
__________________________
Comments (23)
KenEllis
December 24, 2025 at 09:58 am
Like most of the past 14 seasons, the Packers played competitive football, won more games than they lost, filled Lambeau Field to capacity, and (most likely) will be back in the playoffs.
Like all of the past 14 seasons, the Packers are (highly likely) to not be participating in this year’s Super Bowl.
Some fans will view 2025 as another successful season others as another disappointing one, just depends upon one’s expectations.
pantz_bURp
December 24, 2025 at 10:10 am
The one we are watching unfold...you cannot call it a success or failure yet. (in my glorious opinion).
No QB controversy, please Santa...please phat man, find a way for da Pack to keep QB Willis. He is talented, mucho fun to watch, made of the right stuff and oh so smooooooth running or throwing. Santa, please pick one player on the Pack that isn't hurt but not giving 100.1%. Put him on elf duty. Safe travels........
#2 is almost as smooooooth as me 5 minutes to closing time.
Hi, I'm Pantz...I noticed you are drinking a Colorado Bulldog,
Pantz (in the red zone)
Since'75
December 25, 2025 at 12:42 pm
Warning: If you are a woman in Pantz vicinity, 5 minutes to closing time....RUN!!
Merry Xmas and Happy holidays to you and yours.
The_Justicar
December 24, 2025 at 10:11 am
I laughed out loud with the friends made along the way like. Good stuff.
dobber
December 24, 2025 at 10:40 am
"How can we define expectations in the face of a changed season?"
I don't think the expectations or the season itself actually changed. The personnel has changed, and personnel changes for every team over the course of the year as players get hurt, emerge, or underachieve...that doesn't necessarily mean the goalposts move, but the path to the goal moves considerably.
Packerlifer
December 24, 2025 at 10:53 am
Until the Packers play their final game of the season we really can't answer these questions. We may know on Jan. 4, Jan.11-12, Jan. 17-18, Jan. 25 or Feb. 8.
As of now everything is still possible, though the past two games do give reason to worry about yet another shortfall in their Super Bowl quest. The story, though, is still being written.
stockholder
December 24, 2025 at 11:29 am
Gute's statement:
The life of a player in the NFL is not very long.
Individual talent and exceptional teamwork.
Have succumb to Injuries; we continue to see the Talent drain.
Increasing in Fundamental Errors:
Dropped passes, missed assignments etc.
Which started to lead to bad decisions by a QB.
The vision and trust; is fleeting with every loss.
Excuses, negativity, and finger-pointing have started.
The fumbles, interceptions, and general
lack of execution, have increased.
Can the packers survive?
Only winning can stop decline.
If MLF can still beat the odds.
His patched up team was successful.
Regardless of Gute's Internal pressure.
Swisch
December 24, 2025 at 11:29 am
A few years ago, the Packers were the top seed in the NFC, but infamously lost their first playoff game against the 49ers.
About that time, another promising season ended with an infamous loss to the Bucs with Tom Brady.
In both cases, it was not just that we lost, but how we lost.
In other words, it's so hard to predict how we are going to feel about the end of the season that we're just going to have to wait and see how hard the Packers play each game, how smart they play, and how selflessly they play.
So far this season, I really like the team we have on the field for the Packers as far as the way they play the game -- with mostly good and satisfying results.
I'm hopeful they will finish strong.
However, it's up to them.
I like to think we the fans have a role in supporting and uplifting our Packers with an honesty of good intentions that is meant as positivity.
TarynsEyes
December 24, 2025 at 11:52 am
"What Does A Successful Season Look Like For The Packers"?
Maintaining a 'déjà vu'.
splitpea1
December 24, 2025 at 12:21 pm
In my mind, it's not only make the playoffs, but make some noise in them.
Gute: Has he held up his end of the bargain? From an effort standpoint, yes. He made The Big Trade, but it's a gamble. Giving up two first-round picks, even low ones, is still a significant price (and from a draft fan's perspective, there won't be much point at looking at the top talent available). And was The Big Trade really necessary? Maybe, given the underwhelming performance of a couple of first round draft picks on defense. But look at how well the defense, minus The Big Trade (which also included K. Clark) played against the Bears--a team with a solid OL, though missing two important receivers. Finally, there was the acquisition of Banks and Hobbs--a lot of money that wasn't well spent, at least so far. In summary, I would commend Gute for ramping up expectations for the team, but he showed a little uncharacteristic impatience in trying to achieve that goal. I still think the last playoff loss to the Eagles where our OL disintegrated in the end freaked him out.
MLF: Lotta season left, so I'll keep it brief. Missing the playoffs or another one-and-done will put an extension in question--at least, it should. Overall, his QB development has been very good, but a little more work is needed. The offense gets bogged down in predictability at times. Hiring Hafley has corrected a previous mistake. Special teams has continued to be a thorn in our side and rears their ugly head at the most inopportune times. So if you give MLF an extension, you're likely to get more of the same. My question is, is he the man who can get us over the hump--or do we need a "closer" HC to finish the job and get us that Super Bowl title? And who makes this decision, anyway?
GBPfaninMO
December 25, 2025 at 08:12 am
Totally agree with you.At some point just getting in & out quickly in the playoffs doesn't cut it & as far as the future is concerned if it's between Hafley or the flower goodbye flower & Gute REALLY needs GB to get in & make some noise cause excuses r like a holes.
heyjoe4
December 25, 2025 at 09:11 am
Thanks splitpea. These are among the most balanced comments I've seen on the future for MLF. If they don't get in the playoffs, well then Policy has a tough decision to make. I believe they will make the playoffs, so I'll table that for now.
One and done? Well that probably means losing to the Bears in Chicago and that would be very, very hard to take (versus a loss to any other team). I expect this game will happen and that MLF will get his players and coaches ready for a win they should have gotten last Saturday night. Beyond this point, any further wins would just be icing n the cake. Too many big injuries to fairly assess how this team will/would perform in the playoffs, and too many injuries for a realistic shot at the SB.
Bottom line - I don't think MLF or Gluten need worry about their immediate futures. Barring something I can't envision right now, they will both be extended, probably on 3-year deals.. Policy was right to wait until the post season to make these calls.
Starrbrite
December 25, 2025 at 12:51 pm
“Was the Parson’s trade necessary?” Have you noticed the pass rush without him?
bassrock
December 27, 2025 at 12:13 pm
Actually it wasn't much in his last few games before he got hurt. With as much energy as he brings you think the rest of the D would make more of a statement seeing they key on him so much. Gary needs to show up. When you see him give up on plays that Parson keeps motoring on it's pathetic. Should be showing him the plays in locker room and his lack of effort on those plays.
ricky
December 24, 2025 at 12:34 pm
Success starts with beating the Bears twice. And then the Vikings, and finally the Lions, and winning the division. Then it's not playing those "WTF?" games where the team manages to find a way to lose. Then it becomes retaining Hafley, getting MLF a real OC who can actually call plays during the game that keeps the offense moving. And for goodness sake, get rid of Butkus and pay Stenavich whatever it takes to make him happy at his best position: OL coach. And, finally, for the umpteenth time, will someone fix the ST's? Bringing in Bisaccia should have solved the problem. It didn't. And keeping Willis around would be great, but he'll probably be gone for a much bigger contract somewhere else.
bassrock
December 27, 2025 at 12:19 pm
Problem is LeFluer won't give up play calling or hold Bisaccia accountable for the blunders on special teams. LeFluers redzone play calling needs to be looked at as we never score when in it. Also him turning into Dan Campbell on steriods is getting stupid. Sometimes you need to take the points.
NFLfan
December 24, 2025 at 01:45 pm
The team ranks consistently as 8/9 out of 32 teams.
This year it looks like the highest ranking teams are:
Rams
Seahawks
Chargers
Bills
Broncos
Jaguars
Bears?
49ers
@ the end of each year the Packers land in the 'above average' category---8th or 9th
If the Packers really wanted to go all out, let's be honest, several jobs would be lost @ the top, more emphasis would be placed on scouring the country for high-powered, proven GM's, coaches, positional coaches, proven WR#1 and #2, strong OL/CB room, etc.
This iteration of the Packers prizes long-term relationships, some of these relationships may get in the way of best practice but they remain. There are also unaddressed, recurrent problems such as lack of focus on ST's, early round Draft mistakes and more. I think it's ok with Packer's Brass that the team does well enough to keep the seats filled and hope alive.
I thought they were serious about the SB, but there are too many weaknesses in the OL, CB and DL to realistically compete. Happiest fans are those who are ok with being 8th or 9th.
egbertsouse
December 24, 2025 at 01:49 pm
Before the season I predicted the Packers would go 10-7, back into the playoffs as the 7th seed, and lose the first playoff game to the 2nd seed. Why this prediction? Because they do this pretty much every year. They are right on track at this point, in fact, they could end up 11-5-1 and exceed my expectations so I'm not at all depressed. If they win a playoff game, I'll be ecstatic. I've found that reasonable expectations more often lead to satisfaction. But that's just me. To each, his/her own.
Happy holidays Packer fans!
Since'61
December 24, 2025 at 02:16 pm
A successful season is in the eye of the beholder. Each fan probably will define that differently based on their own expectations. I prefer to look at the team's success from the point of view of the GM, HC and the players.
If the Packers fail to reach the playoffs or fail to win any playoff games I don't believe that is a successful season for Gute. He has spent a great deal of draft capital and salary cap by going all in on the 2025 season. I don't disagree with going all in but failing to achieve the goal for going all in means the GM should be held accountable since he has sacrificed both draft picks and salary cap for this and the next 2-3 seasons. IMO this is not a successful season for Gute without at least reaching the NFCCG.
For MLF it's a different point of view. His role is to win games. Given the injuries his roster has suffered especially during the last 2 games his has done a good job so far this season. Having said that he has made questionable decisions during games which contributed to the Packers losing to the Browns, Panthers, and Bears in particular. Just winning 2 of those 3 games would have the Packers in the playoffs and leading their division. Once again I don't think that it can be considered a successful decision for MLF if the Packers fail to reach the playoffs of if they fail to win at least one playoff game. In his seventh NFL season as Packers HC he should be delivering better than a seventh seed for the playoffs. If the league had not changed the playoff format the Packers would have missed the playoffs for the last 3 seasons and in that scenario MLF should be done. If MLF gets his team with all its injuries past the first round of the playoffs I would consider that a successful season for MLF. At least it would mean he took a seventh seed playoff team to a second playoff game and hopefully beyond.
As for the players that is a matter of how well they feel about their individual contributions to the team's final results for the season. I would hope that if they fail to make the playoffs they would all feel that it was an unsuccessful season but we know that some of them are in it for the money and for their next contract.
Bottom line is that we still have 2 games to play and a good chance to reach the playoffs. After that all the playoff teams start at 0-0. GPG! Thanks, Since '61
Leatherhead
December 24, 2025 at 03:04 pm
1). make playoffs
2). Advance
3). Championship Game.
4) Super Bowl.
Since'75
December 25, 2025 at 12:45 pm
What Does A Successful Season Look Like For The Packers?
I can remember what it used to look, that is all.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and yours.
dark41
December 25, 2025 at 07:41 pm
Don't get me wrong, I love Parsons and have been thoroughly entertained by him. I already view this as a successful season because of a winning record, and in spite of all the injuries. While we can't predict who or how bad injuries will be, we know that they will happen.
*
After the Parsons trade and in a conversation with my Brother, I made the point that a season ending or career ending injury to Parsons would make this trade a tremendous mistake. I said (and still believe) that the price was too high. Losing Clark, 2 1st round draft picks, and record breaking salary, are too much for any single player. I believe that Parsons delivered a couple wins. Making the playoffs is a big deal. Winning 1 playoff game would make me very happy and far exceed my expectations due to injuries of Kraft, Jenkins, Wyatt, Parsons, and others throughout the season.
*
The Parsons injury is devastating to the Packers' present and future goals. Our next 2 drafts without a 1st round pick means we're unlikely to significantly improve the roster. Even in an off year, Clark was dependable. Other than Parsons, no D lineman on the current roster has proven to be as dependable or as talented. If and when Parsons returns, will he be the same player? Knee injuries can end careers (Bakhtiari) or significantly reduce performance. It will take a year or more to fully understand the ramifications of this trade. Go Pack go!
Celise...
December 27, 2025 at 11:55 am
in actuality, we gave up 1 first round pick and clark because Parson should be considered the other first round pick. considering what he will continue to bring to this team in the future, (remember, this wasn't just a 1 year deal he signed) his getting hurt does not make the deal a "tremendous mistake" .