2 key takeaways from the Packers first half of the season
Heading into the bye week at 6-3, the Green Bay Packers have had a strong start to the season, but they still have plenty to clean up.
In classic Green Bay Packers fashion, the first half of their season was riddled with stressful moments, but they managed to come out in strong position to push for a high playoff seed.
Sitting at 6-3 heading into their week 10 bye, the Packers struck renewed success on the defensive side of the ball while also reminding the league just how dangerous they can be on offense. But the newfound success for the defense, after a decade of mostly disappointing seasons, has seemingly come at the cost of the offense unable to get out of its own way.
Generally speaking, it has not been the start to the season that most fans or the Packers expected. How could it be when the defense is no longer the problem in Green Bay? And while the offense has struggled to hit its stride, it's still been one of the more potent and explosive units in football. Now, it's about cleaning up the self-inflicted mistakes and putting it all together in the back half of the season, as they did last year.
Here are two takeaways with half of the season behind the Pack.
The defense is back, but the pass rush is missing
Finally, Matt LaFleur has found a defensive coordinator. After a huge swing and miss with hiring Joe Barry, the Jeff Hafley hire was critical for LaFleur to get right.
The result halfway through have far exceeded expectations.
Undoubtedly, the most noticeable change has been in the turnover department. It took only eight games for Hafley and Co. to produce more turnovers than they had all of last season (18). A leading contributor to that success is free agent safety Xavier McKinney, who's already set a career-high in interceptions (6) that currently also leads the NFL.
Rookies Edgerrin Cooper and Evan Williams, despite limited playing time early, have also played critical roles in the Packers' defensive turnaround. Of safeties with at least 200 snaps, Williams is currently PFF's 4th highest-graded safety (87.4), right behind McKinney (89.5). For the first time since Nick Collins graced the football field, it seems the Packers have the safety position figured out, and it's paying dividends.
For Cooper, and similarly to Williams, just flick on the tape. The guy is everywhere, making every play in every phase of the game. A testament to his play was claiming defensive player of the week honors in week eight. It marks the first time a Packers rookie has won the award since Clay Matthews in 2009, and he is the first rookie to win the honors this season. Cooper has also been one of the lone bright spots in the Packers' pass rush this season, owning PFF's highest pass-rush grade in the NFL of all off-ball linebackers (90.4).
This leads to the next most notable change and the only real concern in Hafley's defense: the pass rush.
From Rashan Gary to Kenny Clark to Lukas Van Ness and Preston Smith, no one is consistently getting home to the quarterback. So much so that Smith being such a poor scheme fit led to the Packers' decision to deal him at the trade deadline. Right now, the Packers are 16th in sacks per game (2.4), but adjust down an extreme sack outlier game against the Tennessee Titans, where they recorded 8 sacks, and they find themselves near the bottom of the league. According to PFF, Kenny Clark leads the Packers with only 14 pressures on the season, 50th in the league.
The scheme has seemingly asked the edge players to play more contain, and while it has worked to the tune of the Packers ranking 10th in rush yards allowed per game (113), the cornerback play has not been good enough to produce "coverage sacks." For the Packers' defense to take the next step in the back half of the season, especially with going all in on Van Ness and other young edge rushers, the scheme needs to recalibrate to get pass rushers in quarterbacks' laps more often.
Despite generally poor output from starters Quay Walker, Isaiah McDuffie, Eric Stokes, and Keisean Nixon, the Packers are allowing the 11th fewest yards per game. They just held the league's top offense, the Detroit Lions, to one of their lowest total outputs on the season, lowering their pass yards allowed per game to 207 yards (13th). They also own a 33.01% third-down conversion rate, which is fourth in the NFL and on pace to be their lowest third-down conversion percentage since 2007.
All in all, Hafley's scheme is working well, and he's been able to get more out of the defensive backs than the last scheme. While the pass rush hasn't gotten home as much as the talent has proven capable of, they've been exceedingly more impressive in run defense. This is a refreshing change from what seemed like a problem the Packers would never fix. After facing numerous playoff offenses in the early goings, their 13th-ranked defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) is impressive for a first-time coordinator.
Explosive but uncharacteristically sloppy offense
Love has tapped into his inner Brett Favre gunslinger mentality this season, while Dontayvion Wicks is taking his year two Davante Adams impression a little too seriously with all the drops. To make matters worse, the back-breaking penalties have gotten out of hand, wiping off big play after big play.
Newly added running back Josh Jacobs has felt the brunt of the Packers' 7.3 penalties per game, which is far and away the highest in the LaFleur era. They also have the second-most pre-snap penalties in the league (30).
That being so, Jacobs has still managed to produce the fourth most runs of at least 10 yards (20), but would be leading the league had holding penalties not wiped out his runs. He's nonetheless been a major contributor to the Packer's explosiveness this season and is looking like an All-Pro again. With elusive side steps and powering through the first tackle, he owns the third most rushing yards (762) and fourth most forced missed tackles in football (33). The offensive line doesn't have many players registering strong run-blocking grades this season, so a lot of credit is due to the play design, Jacobs, and Emanuel Wilson for the Packers being third in the NFL for runs of at least 20 yards (11).
Regarding Love, the interceptions are reminiscent of the first half of last season, but the new wrinkle to his game is forcing throws into tight, double, or triple coverage - almost like he watched firsthand Aaron Rodgers do the same thing with Adams for a few seasons. Unfortunately, the results have led to a league-leading 10 interceptions, and even General Manager Brian Gutekunst acknowledged Love's recent issues.
"Every interception is a little different. I'm not overly concerned. It has to get better. I think we all know that. But at the same time, I'm not overly concerned," said Gutekunst.
But the slow-to-get-going passing attack isn't all on Love. The Packers are simply dropping too many passes, particularly Wicks. As a team, the Packers have the fourth-most drops on the season (20), leading to 9.8% of Love's passing hitting the ground, third most among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. Like the penalties, it's another uncharacteristic, self-inflicted issue that the Packers usually don't have issues with.
The encouraging takeaway here is that throughout it all, the Packers still own the 13th-highest explosive play rate (10.9%) and 6th-highest explosive run rate (3.4%). They haven't been nearly as efficient on offense as past seasons, but reducing the drops and penalties will go a long way to improve their standing there. The mistakes are correctable and out of the norm, so there shouldn't be panic that this is what the rest of season Packers will look like. But the bye week will be critical to clean up the miscues.
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Based in Seattle, Austin's roots are in Wisconsin and he bleeds Green & Gold. He also currently writes for Lombardi Ave and has been featured on various Packers podcasts. Follow him on Twitter at @AustinKrueger_.
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Comments (21)
Mister Chievous
November 06, 2024 at 12:09 pm
it's time to consider that our receivers are just mediocre. reed might become an all-pro someday but I don't foresee any other receiver becoming that good. I know that's it going to be a popular take as Packers writers and fans love to cite our "talented young receivers". maybe that's just not so.
a scarier thing to consider is maybe love just isn't going to be a top tier QB. it's not just the interceptions. he's been woefully inaccurate all year, even on short routes. it's an alarming thing considering his new contract. I hereby ban the further use of the term "gunslinger" in reference to love. it romanticizes what are nothing more than incredible stupid throws. can he and will he learn from his mistakes or is it truly a byproduct of a low iq? gunslinger was often used to describe favre, but those of us who watched his career know that he cost us just as many games and even championships as he won. the problem is when he "gunslings" 2 or 3 picks in the playoffs, the season is over. we all saw that year after year after year. love needs to get it together pdq.
Guam
November 06, 2024 at 12:44 pm
I might add Doubs to your list of good (albeit not all pro level) WRs. He has been solid all year except that brain cramp walk about he did for one game. Watson and Wicks have been mysteries this year. Wicks has the dropsies which was the inverse of his play last year when he caught everything thrown at him. Watson can look really good one play and then pull up on a go route, lose the ball, and miss a sure TD pass on the next. IDK what to make of those two and just have to hope that time and training will cure what is ailing them. Melton and Heath are good bottom of the roster WRs.
As for Love, he is still inexperienced and his future is TBD. Even Rodgers threw a bunch of interceptions during his first three years as a starter.
Packerpasty
November 06, 2024 at 05:24 pm
oh, so now Love gets 3 years...other QB's didnt take 3 years to be reliable...last it was "he's young in his first year as starter" this year its "he's still learning and its the youngest team"...some teams really shine with young players..
Mister Chievous
November 06, 2024 at 10:52 pm
sure, i'll give him 3 years. just not at 55 million per
Dick-theBruiser-Afflis
November 06, 2024 at 10:48 pm
Aaron did nothing like Jordan is doing in terms of throwing interceptions in his 1st 3 years.
Jordan's interception to pass attempt % is currently 4.2%
Aaron Rodgers' interception to pass attempt % in his first 3 years was 2.4%, 1.3% and 2.3%.- each much much lower than what Jordan is doing this year at 4.2% - 30th in the league, only Wil Levis and Anthony Richardson are worse and the same is true with Jordan's completion percentage - he simply does not have the arm strength, trajectory, touch and the situational awareness of Rodgers.
In fact Jordan's 10 interceptions in just 7 games is just 3 less than the 13 interceptions Aaron threw for his entire 16 starts in Aaron's worst of the 3 years, his first year as a starter in 2008.
Also NFL rules have changed and are much more favorable to quarterbacks and protective of quarterbacks than when Farve entered the NFL in 1992 or Rodgers entered the NFL in 2005.
The NFL average interception % per pass attempt in 1992 was 3.9%
The NFL average interception % per pass attempt in 2005 was 3.1%
The NFL average interception % per pass attempt in 2023 was 2.3%
Jordan would be having an even tougher time and more interceptions if he were playing in those days.
Mister Chievous
November 06, 2024 at 10:56 pm
farve used to take some big hits, didn't he?
Mister Chievous
November 06, 2024 at 10:51 pm
I count Doubs as good, too. but, another bad drop against the lions. a locker room problem. everyone else is not special. you're right about Watson misplaying deep balls. he dosen't make contested catches. health? Melton? who knows. you can't say they're good because they haven't proven anything. every team in the league has guys like that. maybe one of them will develop into something. let's hope so. I don't recall Rodgers making dumb throws like these until the very end of his time here. what I seem to remember is the feeling of how relieved I was that Rodgers wasn't making the same stupid throws farve routinely did.
AustinKrueger
November 06, 2024 at 11:38 pm
Just wrote one up about Doubs and genuinely think he has the ability to produce very good numbers with more targets/less mouths to feed on offense. For Watson, I’m not holding the losing the ball in the rain against him. Wasn’t great and it was uncharacteristic but also probably due to conditions. He's been an amazing blocker and even without being targeted he takes the top off defenses, opening up so much underneath stuff. He’s also tops in contested catch rate this year! But same limited target situation as Doubs and everyone else.
Mister Chievous
November 07, 2024 at 01:22 pm
Watson is actually a terrible blocker, as is Musgrave. I watch a bit of film and focus on Watson as a blocker. Watson has been misplaying deep balls since he arrived, not only against detroit.
WestCoastPackerBacker
November 06, 2024 at 05:38 pm
Love has been hurt most of the season. I would think that getting a proper base to throw from is harder on a healing knee injury and/or groin injury. I'm not going to worry about his accuracy or interceptions when he's playing hurt. If he's 100% and starts having issues, then I would be concerned. But he didn't lose the ability to throw the ball well; he's both injured and probably trying to do too much to prove he deserved the big contract. This may not be his year, but I'm not worried about him in the long run.
There's a big difference b/t "all-pro" and mediocre, and most of the WRs fall in that space. They are doing some good things, but not with enough consistency, which is the reality for young teams.
Packers'Dynasties6of16-5of7-next....
November 06, 2024 at 08:44 pm
WCPB, Jordan had a Knee MCL Grade 2 sprain and missed 2 games.
You may remember that Aaron Rodgers also had the same Knee MCL Grade 2 sprain and was carted off the field in the 2nd quarter of the Packers 2018 season opening game against the Bears. Deshone Kizer came off the bench to replace him and proceeded to fumble the ball away on his first possession and throw a pick 6 on his 2nd possession. The Packer trailed the Bears 20 to 0 when Rodgers returned for the 1st possession of the 2nd half. Rodgers proceeded to throw 3 touchdown passes and lead the Packers to a 24-23 victory.
Rodgers played the remainder of the 2018 with the MCL sprain and a bone bruise, not missing a single game.
Rodgers threw just 2 interceptions THAT ENTIRE SEASON - an NFL record and he is in 2nd and 3rd place as well.
Do you remember that game and season?
Jordan at his press conference following the Lions game said he was not bothered by injury.
Jordan rolled out and threw on the run several times, including the pass that was well behind Wicks with Wicks running full speed to towards the right sideline.
What we are seeing is the same Jordan Love that finished 26th in completion % last year and led all of college football in interceptions his last year of college.
Jordan's poor play and inaccuracy has nothing to do with injury.
barutanseijin
November 06, 2024 at 09:26 pm
How did the immortal A Rod do in the playoffs that great year with only two interceptions? Oh that’s right, they didn’t even make it. to the playoffs. Other than not throwing INTs in 2018, Rodgers’ big accomplishment in 2018 was getting his coach fired. True hall of fame stuff.
Mister Chievous
November 06, 2024 at 10:58 pm
no. most wrs fall near and on either side of mediocre. that's why it's called mediocre.
T7Steve
November 06, 2024 at 12:21 pm
" the cornerback play has not been good enough to produce "coverage sacks."
Add that a consistent pass rush would help the cornerback play and thus they would complement each other.
They have explosive plays, just don't seem to have them get into the endzone as much as they should. Maybe someone here will tell me where they rank in redzone efficiency? Same with ranks on 3rd and 4th downs?
Guam
November 06, 2024 at 12:32 pm
Green Bay ranks 29th in red zone efficiency scoring TDs about 47% of the time. Not good.
T7Steve
November 06, 2024 at 12:46 pm
Thanks. I bet it's close to that on short 3rd and 4th conversions too. Maybe the 3rd and shorts are coming around now that Jacobs is being used a little more?
Mister Chievous
November 06, 2024 at 11:03 pm
yeah, that was a dumb thing to say. no team is going to produce coverage sacks in today's NFL very often
Leatherhead
November 06, 2024 at 01:30 pm
I think the coverage, or lack thereof, is a factor in the our low pass-rush metrics.
I don't care if you lined up Deacon Jones, Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor and Alan Page, they wouldn't get any sacks or pressures if the QB simply has to throw to the ball to an uncovered receiver. I remember how much our pass rush metrics improved when we added Charles Woodson to the secondary.
IMO, quite a few sacks are 'coverage sacks', where the QB couldn't find an open guy and the pass rush reached home.
canadapacker
November 06, 2024 at 06:50 pm
Somewhat correct Lh - but also remember - we do not blitz much - and unlike the Vikings where Flores blitzes from every angle -or not which frees guys up and we seem not to except in the Houston game where we kind of confused both their Oline and their kinda new QB. But I dont trust some of those Dbacks on the coverage when we bring the house. Especially Stokes on those fly routes and on the inside Quay Walker in the middle area. Finally some guys have not gotten into the same gear as last year and that includes Smith Gary and even Clark at times and nobody else is stepping up but some of that may be because of what our new DC wants regarding the new scheme.
Mister Chievous
November 06, 2024 at 11:08 pm
deacon Jones. haha! you're old, and too old to use the term "metrics"
Calzone
November 06, 2024 at 04:09 pm
When is DBak coming back? LOL.