If you've been watching the NFL Draft as it unfolds for half of the last decade, one thing is pretty much certain, the Packers are going to move up and down the board. General Manager Brian Gutekunst himself has been quoted on several occasions of his desire to both "let the board fall to us" and to "make moves to get the player". As we enter into Gutekunst's six year at the helm of the roster, I expect nothing less than one eye-opening trade for a player the Packers like. It's almost a question of not if, but when.

In five drafts the Packers have made a total of 7 trades since 2018; with Gutekunst showing a willingness to do business with anybody and everybody, making deals with teams from the AFC all the way to the NFC North. With a Draft Class that I personally believe is mired in a ton of uncertainty after the top of the 1st Round, the eagerness to reach across any and all aisles to get the athlete that's most likely to help make the Packers successful in 2023 is a amiable trait. 

The pending Aaron Rodgers trade controversy aside (sorry boys, you'll have to get your rocks off elsewhere), I don't envy Gutekunst with his current dilemma of picking 15th. At his current position, the cost to move up would be too great with a smorgasbord of teams looking to grab one of the premier quarterbacks this year. Given the team's current needs, I surmise that it's highly unlikely a premium player will be available at a position of need and those who would be available would be a definite reach. However, moving down makes a ton of sense for the Packers, as it's highly likely they can still get who they want plus an extra player, maybe even two. QB situation aside, this is still a team that can compete for a playoff spot in 2023. With the 2023 Draft Class, it's definitely a case of "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts"; and it's this concept to where I will fault our current General Manager. This Draft Class is NOT about being sexy; it's not about generating a "buzz" or making a "splash". The name of the game is to simply reload across the board. The dividends may not be immediate, and it may in fact look rough at times, but if the Packers want to create a new Super Bowl window that will last 3-5 years, it's going to start with some nimble manipulation of 2023's Draft Capital.

Given a certain trade that's expected to go down....eventually, I'm not going to go too far into the deep end on this one. After careful consideration, I found 3 ideal scenarios that work for the Packers in the 1st Round.

*Point tallies will be from the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value Model

This trade really needs no introduction, the Packers and Seahawks have been chummies ever since John Schneider departed Green Bay in 2009 where he was once Director of Football Operations (Gutekunst was just a scout at the time). Of the 7 trades Brian Gutekunst has executed, 2 were deals done with the Seahawks...and I question how many more would have been done had the timing been right.

The Seahawks have the 3rd most draft capital in 2023 (3,754 pts), with only Carolina (3,777pts) and Houston (5,016.4 pts) having more. The Seahawks have the 5th and the 20th Overall Picks in the 1st Round, so I expect them to be "wheelin and dealin" right out the gate, especially with teams who may be looking to grab one of the top QBs in this year's Draft, which would only give them an even bigger abundance of draft capital when you're talking about trading a Top-5 Pick.

It's kind of difficult to make a "hard prediction" that this trade will happen, because you're also dependent on what 30 other teams will do as well, and the fallout that will occur from teams not named the Packers and Seahawks, trading up, trading down, standing pat, or making a selection. However I will make one here, I believe that Gutekunst and Schneider will have a gentleman's agreement concerning 15th Overall. Given the Packers' and Seahawks' needs, there's far more to be had for both teams if they were to make a deal. The Seahawks can continue to rebuild their depleted Legion of Boom with a premier defensive player meanwhile the Packers can make their top choice without spending more than they should. Many pundits, including myself have mocked a Tight End to the Packers at 15th, but I do believe 15th Overall is a little rich for that position. 20th Overall makes more sense, plus the Packers would gain an additional Day 2 Selection, which is where the real "meat and potatoes" of this Draft lies. 198th, while on the surface may seem like a throwaway pick to add to the deal but it really isn't. The Packers have no picks in the 6th Round, so after they make their selection at 170th Overall, there would be 61 players drafted before they are on the clock again at 232nd in the 7th Round. That's a lot to potentially miss out on, and it makes for our CHTV Draft Live Stream to be a little less interesting.

The Chargers don't have nearly as much draft capital as the Seahawks (1410.6), but this is a call I expect Brian Gutekunst to receive during the 1st Round. The Chargers pretty much are ready to go on offense, but with the sudden retirement of Nasir Adderley along some other holes on defense they could be looking to make a splash early. Like the Packers, the Chargers are expecting a pending trade with Austin Ekeler wanting out, so depending on when or if that happens along with the compensation, they could be a team looking to make some deals during on Draft Day. 

Even though the Chargers are just one pick behind the Seahawks, being outside the Top-20 takes the value down somewhat; and unlike the Seahawks this trade will probably come in the heat of the moment which could even command more of a price than listed here. 157th Overall would also give the Packers 3 picks in the 5th Round, with 7 total picks inside the Top-150; that's quite the consolation prize for not having any picks in the 6th Round and could yield a surprise role player in 2023.

From a point value standpoint this makes the least amount of sense, but again, this is a concept of "the whole being greater than the sum of its parts". Unlike the aforementioned trades, this yields 4 picks from the Jaguars. The Jaguars looked ready to redefine the AFC's pecking order during the 2022 postseason and fell just short agaisnt eventual Champion Kansas City. They'll be looking to shore up the offensive line to give Trevor Lawrence more time to find his weapons, especially recently re-instated Wide Receiver Calvin Ridley. If a premier Offensive Tackle is available at 15, I expect Brian Gutekunst to hold the de-facto rights to said player at ransom, and I do believe the Jags are a team that may come calling. If he gets more than one team, say the previously mentioned Chargers on the phone, this deal could get even sweeter.

This deal net an extra pick in the 4th (which we all know Gutekunst loves to give to somebody else) and getting a selection in the 6th Round. Whether Gutekunst actually makes a selection in the 4th or uses it to move up earlier in the Draft is anyone guess. Regardless, Packers' fans should expect a quality player either way. Day 2 and going into the 4th Round are where most of the gems will lie, so there's definitely some excitement to be had during this point.

It's anyone's guess who Gutekunst will actually do a deal with on Draft Day, but if there's one thing I do know, after Commissioner Roger Goodell sounds the opening bell, the Packers will be open for business.

#GPG