Well, that wasn’t great. The Packers went to Vegas and laid an egg against a bad Raiders team. After seeing some promising things through the first 4 weeks, it all seemed to come unraveled this week. Watching live, it felt messy and disjointed with very few things to be excited about.

When I went back through and watched the game, I found that I liked what LaFleur was trying to do. With no Aaron Jones, the run game went to a more vertical, at-you approach, with lots of inside zone and duo. And the pass game, well, let’s look at the chart.

It’s a weird one. Jordan Love’s ADOT (Average Depth Of Target) was 8.8 yards, his second lowest of the season (his lowest was 8.2 ADOT against the Falcons in Week 2). If you’ve read anything since the game, I’m sure you’ve heard some variation of this stat: “Love was 2/10 on passes over 5 yards.” While that’s true, it doesn’t illustrate the great divide between the quick game and everything else. The throw chart tells a very specific story: "the LBs are intent on taking away the intermediate middle of the field, so live in the quick game on the edges to neutralize Maxx Crosby, then take calculated shots down the field."

Love attempted only 7 passes over 10 yards, but most of those were well north of 10 yards. He had pass depths of 11 and 13, but the next ones were 30, 34, 41, 45, 49. 

Hit the quick stuff, then take calculated shots. Against a Raiders defense with a dominant pass rusher but a secondary that came into the game ranked 29th at opposing QB Rating, I don’t hate the approach. Stay on schedule. Stay in rhythm. Hit the bombs in favorable moments.

I thought Love operated well in the quick game. When targeting 0-10 yards, he was 7/11 (63.6%) for 38 yards. Not exactly Joe Montana, but, for a guy who has struggled with accuracy to the boundary, I thought he was decisive and accurate. 

The problem was the deep game, and not all of it was on Love. A couple seemed to be miscommunications on route breaks as opposed to out-and-out misses, while a couple others were nice throws that, unfortunately, weren’t hauled in. The numbers look bad on that front, but I thought it was his best day throwing the deep ball of the year. A low bar to clear to be sure, but a bar cleared nonetheless (in my own mind if nowhere else).

To add to that, the receivers were credited with 3 drops on the day, while Love had 2 throwaways. That brings his adjusted completion % to 67.9%.

Let’s throw a couple others numbers out there then take a look at a play. Per PFF, Love was under pressure on 32.4% of his dropbacks. On those, he was a miserable 3/8  for 18 yards (2.3 YPA). Now the fun part: he was only blitzed on 14.7% of his dropbacks, and on those blitzes he was very good: 4/5 for 41 yards (8.2 YPA). 

If we look at those two groups of numbers, we can say that the blitzes didn’t really pressure him (he got the ball out in 2.46 seconds when blitzed), but the 4 man rushes gave him - and the Packers - a lot of issues. Some of that was due to Maxx Crosby looking like a man possessed at times, but it was also due to the Packers receivers difficulty in getting open. Love averaged 3.86 seconds to throw when under pressure, meaning he was was either holding the ball too long or he couldn’t find anyone open. While there were a couple instances when he could have let it rip, most of the issues fell on the receivers simply not getting open.

Alright. Let’s get to the fun stuff.

Play 1: 2nd & 15, 3:27 remaining in the 1st quarter

If you have a play where you’re running a screen to one side and something else to the other side, I will be extremely happy. Running a play where you are running a different screen to each side? Buddy, you will find me levitating. Which is what we have here.

On the right we have a tunnel screen from trips, with Dontayvion Wicks [13] as the #2 stepping back and looking for the throw, while AJ Dillon [28] and Josiah Deguara [81] and the right side of the o-line release to block.

On the left, we have Jayden Reed [11] stepping back to look for the throw while Romeo Doubs [87] and Rasheed Walker [63] release to block. 

The decision is made pre-snap based on defensive alignment. With the LBs and secondary tilted to the trips side, Love makes the decision to throw to Reed on the left.

It ends up gaining 7 yards, but it could have gone for more. There’s a blip in the execution, with Walker and Doubs both releasing to block the boundary, when one of them (Walker, most likely) needs to seal the inside. 

A really nice design and a pretty good gain that could have been even more effective. I really hope we’ll see this again.

Play 2: 1st & 10, 7:15 remaining in the 3rd quarter

This is the big 77 yard gain to Christian Watson [9] and it comes off a concept we should all be familiar with by now: PA Boot Sail. It is the core passing concept in this offense. And, while its effectiveness has waned over the last year, it can still be an effective play.

77-yard gain for @ChristianW2017!#GBvsLV | #GoPackGo

: ESPN / ABC pic.twitter.com/aCNvaXNxa8

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 10, 2023

What I’ve enjoyed this year is seeing the different ways the Packers have run it. At its core, it’s a bootleg concept that consists of three routes: a deep corner (Sail) route, an intermediate crossing route and a flat route. Sometimes you’ll get a Slam route where an in-line TE initially blocks down before releasing into space (which we get here), but those three main routes comprise the Sail concept. Typically the flat route will come via a TE slicing under the formation at the snap, but here the “flat” route comes in the form of a quick out to the boot side.

I enjoy it because it shows Matt LaFleur is actively looking for ways to keep this concept on their menu, but running it out of nontraditional looks.

To the play itself, the big gain comes at the result of a busted coverage from the Raiders, with both deep defenders to the boot side converging on the intermediate crosser, leaving Watson wide open. 

What I like about this from Love is that he sees Watson at all. You rarely see the QB throw the Sail on this concept. It’s usually nothing more than a run-off route, meant to create space for the routes underneath. It can be an alert, where it’s thrown only if the QB sees something pre-snap that tells him it will be open. It will usually be given an initial glance, then quickly moved off. The read on this is usually the intermediate crosser #1, the flat #2, then the Slam or a QB run as the third option.

I like that LaFleur is finding ways to run this and I like that Love saw Watson and was able to get it to him.

I would have liked it more if Watson had been able to hit paydirt, but not everything can be perfect I guess.

Albums listened to: Mitski - Puberty 2; Miya Folick - ROACH; Sufjan Stevens - Javelin; Teen Jesus and the Jean Teasers - I Love You; John Carpenter - Anthology II: Movie Themes 1976-1988