The Math Checks Out On A Potential David Bakhtiari Trade
Recent comments made about David Bakhtiari have re-ignited a lot of trade rumors. But is that even possible? Let's look at the math.
By BruceIrons
There's a lot of math and numbers involved in any potential David Bakhtiari trade scenarios.
Let's start by looking at the most important numbers.
101
Let's start with the salary cap basics, particularly the difference between signing bonus and base salary.
Base salary is the paid in the year it is earned and counts against the cap during that year. A signing bonus is a larger amount that is paid immediately at the signing of a new contract (hence the name), but the cap hit is spread out evenly among all the remaining years on the contract.
This gives teams some flexibility in managing the cap through restructures. With a restructure, a team can take a player's base salary for a year and turn it into a signing bonus. In this way, they pay the player immediately for the year, but spread the cap hit out over multiple years. The important thing to understand here is that this isn't "creating" cap space (there is nothing magical happening here) this is simply moving the cap hit to a later year so you can spend more now.
The Packers did that a lot in the early part of this decade, including multiple times with David Bakhtiari, so that they could run it back in 2020 and 2021 and 2022. The end result is that so much of David Bakhtiari's contract was snowplowed into the future that he is scheduled to have a cap hit of over $40M in 2024.
So far, no player in NFL history has had a $40M cap hit. This is one of the reasons why I think David Bakhtiari won't be on the Packers in 2024.
It's also possible that he won't be on the Packers in 2023.
Comments from many sources have alluded to the possibility that Bakhtiari is traded.
Let's look at some more numbers that play into this scenario to see if it's even possible, let along plausible.
38 / 2
David Bakhtiari currently has $38M of dead money that the Packers cap would have to account for if he were to leave the team (if you want to learn more about how the NFL salary cap works, check out A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap). This represents money that has already been paid to him through various bonuses, but still needs to be counted towards the salary cap.
Since we are after June 1st, if he were to leave the team, the $38M cap hit would be spread out over 2023 and 2024 in equal $19M chunks.
If that sounds like a lot of money, it is. Only 4 left tackles (besides Bakhtiari) have a contract that averages more than $19M. So if Bakhtiari were to leave the team, the Packers would essentially be taking a cap hit equal to top 5 tackle money for the next two years... for a player no longer on the team.
While $19M per year for the next two years is a lot, it's not as much of a hit as they would take if they kept him.
His scheduled cap hits for the next two years are $21M in 2023 and $40M in 2024.
That means if the Packers were to move him, they would save $2M this year and $21M next year. Since these numbers represent his unpaid annual salaries, they would also be what any team acquiring him in a trade would have to pay him.
2 + 2 + 2
The Packers have two starting-caliber offensive tackles in Zach Tom and Yosh Nijman. Neither looks like they are currently at the All Pro standard that David Bakhtiari set in his All Pro seasons, but both have proven capable of playing left tackle at a solid level.
They also have Rasheed Walker (who has earned starter reps in practice based on his development) and Caleb Jones. While these developmental prospects aren't starter-level just yet, they could be serviceable backups in case injury were to strike.
The Packers also have guys like Elgton Jenkins and Sean Rhyan, who have played or practiced at tackle in the past.
It's clear that the Packers have been stocking the shelves at tackle, preparing for Bakhtiari's inevitable departure from the team, be it sooner or later.
3
This is the number of seasons in which David Bakhtiari has missed time due to a devastating knee injury. Maybe that's all behind him now, but for a guy approaching his mid-30's, that could still be a factor in his long-term viability as an NFL starter. He would not be the first offensive lineman to end his career early because of knee problems.
This is a number that could weigh heavily into the plans of any team thinking about acquiring him.
8
The Jets have a player who wears number 8 who just so happens to be best friends with David Bakhtiari. The Jets are also a team in desperate need of offensive line help.
That quarterback has talked a lot about the people side of the football business. David Bakhtiari is one of the people he has talked about a lot.
1
The number of years that might be left in the Jets Super Bowl window. They have a young defense, skill players on their rookie contracts, and a quarterback that is pretty far up there in years.
With all the signings they have made, they could be pushing all their chips in for one big all-in drive this year. Would they risk it all with a shaky offensive line or make a bold move to solidify it?
1 + 2
In terms of compensation, the market is cloudy around what an All Pro caliber left tackle with a potential hand grenade for a knee might fetch.
Another question that comes up is what the Jets (seemingly the most likely trade partner) could offer given that their 1st and 2nd round picks next year are tied up in a conditional trade. If Aaron Rodgers plays 65% of the snaps, the Packers get their 1st round pick. If he doesn't, the Packers get their 2nd round pick.
However, if the teams wanted to work out a deal, they could start their negotiations for Bakhtiari by offering a 2nd round pick that would become a 1st pick if Rodgers plays less than 65% of the snaps.
This would essentially give the Packers the 1st and 2nd round picks from the Jets next year. It may not be quite enough to close a deal, but it would be a good starting point.
$2,253,235
Given that so much of the cap hit would stay with the Packers, this is the amount an team that acquired Bakhtiari would have to pay him this season.
This makes it incredibly easy for any team looking to trade for him to get them under their cap. Next year, any team that acquires him would have the option to pay him $21.5M to play, or simply cut him and owe him nothing.
If a team needs a left tackle for a one year push, getting an All Pro caliber left tackle for $2M would be an incredible value proposition.
However you look at it, whether you think he'll be traded or not, the math works out.
It would be more than possible for the Packers to trade David Bakhtiari.
Whether they will or not remains to be seen.
PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.
__________________________
Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.
Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.
__________________________
Comments (109)
Guam
August 18, 2023 at 07:14 am
While the math does work, I don't think that is the determining issue for the Packers when it comes to trading Bahk this year. The development of Walker and/or Jones into serviceable backup tackles is the constraining factor. You can't go into a season with just two competent OT's, you must have at least three. The Packers assuredly have that with Bahk in the fold (Bahk, Nijman and Tom). If Bahk goes, Walker or Jones must be able to step up and I don't think the Packers know that is the case at this point.
Walker's good showing against the Bengals allows hope that he may develop into that backup tackle, but he needs to stack further successes in practice and in the next two preseason games for the Packers to even consider trading Bahk. And then another team (Jets?) must be willing to pay the price for a very good but aging left tackle with limited years left to play.
I don't think we will have an answer until preseason is over.
TKWorldWide
August 18, 2023 at 08:35 am
Ok for the math, but where is the motive? I don’t see it.
jannesbjornson
August 18, 2023 at 08:47 am
Trade the fans.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 02:40 pm
Do we get a waterboy in return?
jannesbjornson
August 18, 2023 at 07:44 pm
Free popcorn.
Guam
August 18, 2023 at 08:56 am
I see three reasons for the trade provided the Packers can find an acceptable third tackle.
(1) The Packers will be moving on from Bahk next year anyway due to contract issues. If the replacement players are in place now, is there really a significant advantage to keeping Bahk one more year?
(2) Let the young tackles (Nijman and Tom) grow with the young offense this year rather than delaying that growth until 2024. The Packers will be better in 2024 by letting the young guns play this year.
(3) Get draft choices for the 2024 draft by trading him now rather than potentially getting 2025 draft choices if they can't trade him before the 2024 draft. You might also get more value for him this year as the clock is ticking on his career and the team trading for him will get one more year of service if they acquire him this year.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 02:43 pm
I don't think three starting caliber OTs warrant trading the fourth, and best O lineman on the team. What if 2 OTs go down?
Guam
August 18, 2023 at 06:02 pm
The injury bug can strike anywhere and even four OTs are not proof against injury problems. The conventional wisdom is that a team needs at least 7 competent O-linemen including three OTs to successfully get through a season. I don't know enough to argue against that wisdom.
For me the issue turns on protecting Jordan Love in his first year as a starter versus enhancing the team for a Super Bowl push in 2024 or 2025. It is highly likely that Bahk is only with the team through 2023 but he sure helps protect Jordan Love for that year. Conversely, a high draft pick (a #2 perhaps) could really help the team in 2024 and 2025.
Tough decision and I can see reasons for going either way. Glad I don't have to make it!
greengold
August 18, 2023 at 09:06 am
Sell high.
TGR explained to me yesterday that the Packers are literally done for if Bakhtiari were to somehow play out his contract in 2024 to become a FA, having to take on his $40M cap hit with compensatory pick value being no more than an R5.
My thinking is the minimal salary taken on by the trading team THIS YEAR (making him affordable to nearly any team for 2023) plus his ability to play at a high level brings the highest value now, with the least risk.
Some point to his playing in GB for 2023, and trading him in 2024. What happens if he’s injured at any point in 2023? That would be very bad.
Sell high.
Thegreatreynoldo
August 18, 2023 at 10:13 am
I of course used more qualifiers but the gist is accurate. If the Packers keep Bakh for 2023 to protect Love and give him a fair evaluation, in 2024 Bakh will be in the driver's seat.
1. There is nothing the Packers can do to reduce his cap without Bakh's consent. If he so desires, Bakh can see if you keep me for 2024 my cap number will not be one cent less than $40.58M. There is a reason Bakh refused to add any void years to his deal three times in a row. That number would be hard though arguably not completely impossible for GB to fit in under their cap. That's real leverage. And GB would only get a 5th round comp pick at best in 2026 for Bakh were he to sign elsewhere after the 2024 season. GMs don't like losing a good player and only getting the benefit 2 seasons later. In GB, you have to go back to Sherman to remember a GM whose seat was hot.
2. The Packers could release him in March. That would be a waste. It only makes sense if Bakh's knee explodes.
3. The Packers could trade him. If Bakh doesn't like the destination, he could refuse to sign an extension, lowering his value on a trade. He could force the acquiring team to pay him $21.5M next year. That's fair value for Bakh if he is still a top 5 LT, but the acquiring team would have to also part with a draft pick.
3. Just guessing, but I don't know that GB can get a 2nd for Bakh right now. If he plays all 7 games and at a high level, perhaps GB can get a 2nd in October at the trade deadline, maybe a bit more. I don't think the Packers can release Bakh's medical info to an acquiring team without Bakh's consent, nor do I think he has to undergo tests prior to a trade being consummated. Teams will know how he looks during games and how often he practiced, of course. My goal is a 2nd rounder. Remember, some team gave up a 2nd for Mohamed Sanu a couple of years ago at the trade deadline. For haters of the Bears, I'll mention Chase Claypool.
I seem to be in the minority, at least on CHTV, but I think stockpiling talent for the long term should be an important part of GB's plans in 2023. I am not in favor of keeping a 5th shitty safety just because it STs need another guy so we don't lose a game due to STs. Not if it means releasing a Jonathan Ford, or perhaps (I haven't made up my mind) a Brenton Cox or one of the WRs.
Bakh turns 32 in September. GB knows what the doctors say about his knee, but I don't. Bakh could be part of the team's long-term plans, which in the NFL is 3 to 4 years out, really. He'd really help Jordan Love if he stays and is healthy. If there is risk, it is not unreasonable to consider trading Bakh for a 2nd. That stockpiling talent for the long term, and indeed draft picks are also cheap.
greengold
August 18, 2023 at 10:28 am
LOL. I'm just thrilled I got the gist right!!!!
Yes, you did mention the qualifiers, and we did speak of the possibility they just sign Bakhtiari to a new extension to allow him to end his career in GB. This, to me, seems like it would make for a best case scenario with giving Jordan Love his best chance to win now, and to possibly advance deep into the playoffs should that opportunity present.
Should that happen, and Bakhtiair remains healthy, another 3-4 year extension would allow the Packers to find more amicable terms throughout the tenure of his deal, and would be a more sure stepping stone arrangement to acquiring his replacement.
TGR, you make some great points in all the other minutia I failed to recall & communicate. I completely agree on looking at now as a time to stockpile talents for the future, while sloughing off those who may not project there for the Packers.
There truly exists a chance David Bakhtiari is giving the Packers a long look himself, to see if he wants to throw in on staying with the team for the remainder of his career. Does he see a winner? A real chance at the ring or rings, plural? He might. Bakhtiari holds those cards of consent, along with those of where, which team he's willing to extend with.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 02:48 pm
Bakh's already said his contract will be modified for next year in any case. No way is 2025 locked in (although cap already dead is)
x24
August 18, 2023 at 09:17 am
I think the motive will be "Let's be honest- this team's best years are ahead"
2 or 3 losses out of the gates, and this motive only grows greater
greengold
August 18, 2023 at 08:55 am
Guam, it is a strange poison pill the Packers built into Bakhtiari’s most recent deal. When it came out, that minute amount of actual salary immediately screamed he and his contract were highly tradable in 2023.
Maybe they saw the writing on the wall: “Fiscal Responsibility.”
Given Packers FO was in a heightened & aggressive “clear cap” mode to protect the team’s future, they very likely had a list of items to address. First on the list was cutting dead weight, and adding max void years wherever they could to clear dead cap for the AR trade. Second on that list has to be trading Bakhtiari.
Nijman was a very reliable and effective starter behind Bakhtiari, which was a luxury. I see both Rasheed Walker and Caleb Jones both being shrewd late round/UDFA additions, capable of becoming that young backup to Nijman that Nijman was to Bakhtiari.
This is looking more and more to be the hand we dealt ourselves in failing to trade AR to DEN in a blockbuster. Imagine what we could have done with that draft capital.
Guam
August 18, 2023 at 09:12 am
All true GG.
I have been wondering why they have been playing Nijman almost exclusively at LT and holding Bahk out of so many practices. Either Bahk's knee is worse than advertised or something else is going on. I generally hate conspiracy theories, but it almost looks like they are preparing Nijman for the LT spot and setting Bahk up to be traded.
Obviously I don't really know what is going on, but their handling of the O-line this training camp has been odd.
Thegreatreynoldo
August 18, 2023 at 10:30 am
Bakh looked awesome in practice. No chance for pass rushers, and he blocked well for the run, as well. I suppose it may be that he can't last an entire game, or can't string together games week after week. IDK.
I actually don't find what they are doing with the OL odd at all, but I do find it annoying. I think they are bound and determined to make a player out of Myers. He isn't being tried at other positions, and remember, he was big for a center, big enough to play guard. Instead, we've got Schneider sucking up RG reps. (Yes, Schneider got quite a few during practice, and IIRC he got 7 snaps in the first preseason game.) I get giving Rhyan reps at RG. In a sense what they are doing is odd, but less so if draft status is that important to a staff and FO. Is Runyan a better RG than Nijman is as a RT? Tom is probably the 3rd or 4th best OL. That ranking might change though it one limits him to RT, or just OC, or OG. Seems like they might have let him get the bulk of his snaps at OC or RG if one only considers team needs. And not #3 OC reps, though starting out with the #3s is fine. But he was a college center.
coolhand
August 18, 2023 at 01:41 pm
On packerswire.com, a quote from Gutey's press conference today:
— On David Bakhtiari trade rumors: “We’re not going to trade David…that’s not going to happen.”
I hope he holds to this.
Coldworld
August 18, 2023 at 02:21 pm
Makes zero sense to me. There’s a big hole in this picture somewhere. It would make sense if Nijman hadn’t been good enough to get Rodgers to the playoffs and we were not in mid youth movement and still in cap hock to teams past.
They seem oddly committed to Myers and not to Nijman, who’s actually performed better to date. Is this another Amari that blows up when both Bakh and Nijman are no longer available next year. We aren’t paying Bakh 40 million in cap next year. We darn well shouldn’t be giving him a multi year extension either.
The weaknesses showed up by the Pats yesterday were there with Bakh. LT is not our big problem. The issues yesterday weren’t on the edge in the passing game or on runs off either side on both days.
Were I Nijman, I’d want to move. Maybe that’s the plan. Trade him and go to Walker/Jones with Bakh as a bridge. The downside is a real possibility that we get nothing Bakh either if he gets hurt or because of the structure of his contract.
I’m more interested in who Gute can get to help in the middle.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 02:54 pm
To me it makes no sense to keep Bakh and trade Nijman. It only makes sense to trade Bakh if you get impossibly high value for him now and fear that falling soon, or know he won't come down much on his pay for next year.
stockholder
August 18, 2023 at 07:19 am
1. If the packers don't extend Bahk now.
They will be moving on No matter what!
2. As long as Bahk sits out routinely.
Why not move on before his value drops!
3. Let's just stop with trying to understanding the cap.
And the can down the road. Gute needs money.
4. Bahk is replaceable. With what we have now.
5. If the excitement is real. Don't be afraid of change.
jannesbjornson
August 18, 2023 at 08:49 am
They needed to bag a blue chip OT in 2022-23, if that was the plan. If he is moved for future speculation, Love may end up on IR. They played their hand, live with it.
stockholder
August 18, 2023 at 12:19 pm
The plan is to Sign Gary- Doubt they want to franchise him.
jannesbjornson
August 18, 2023 at 12:57 pm
Then why draft Van Ness ? OT was the biggest need the past couple drafts along with Watson. They hit on Doubs, but he has to tighten up his concentration. He went moonshot with Love; now protect him.
stockholder
August 18, 2023 at 08:33 pm
Age- P. Smith. is why.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 07:32 am
Others have pointed out that Bakh on the Jets increases the likelihood that our first round pick from them is lower because they'll win more games and therefore Gutey wouldn't trade him to the Jets. I'm not sure it's that simple because it could involve removing the condition on the pick, locking it up as a first round. I think that would be a waste of draft capital as Bakh himself would do a lot to keep AR safe. Also, his earnings next year would be re-negotiated in any event, Bakh's already said that. We just don't know what he'd consider. My guess is $15MM maybe, 10 no.
Others have said that quality starting O linemen are a rarity in today's league. If that's true there are a LOT of potential trade partners. I do think the Jets might be willing to give us more trade value than anyone else.
Missing from this equation is Bakh's input. We know he's adamantly against playing on artificial turf, being one of the most vocal players on the subject of the NFL doesn't care about player safety AT ALL if they're not willing to go 100% natural grass. The Jets play on artificial turf at home so his games on it would increase from the 5 on our schedule. Bakh might just prefer staying in GB to any other option. And he might have 5+ years of great playing to go, but there's certainly increased risk involved. Coupled with planning on NOT playing him on artificial turf these are good reasons for him to accept reduced pay next season and all years going forward, which is the scenario that makes the most sense to me right now. Prolong his remaining years. Of course a deep dive into our overall salary cap situation is essential to this, and there's a specialist recently hired for exactly that.
There's also the fact that many have big concerns about our depth at O line and Bakh is objectively our best O lineman. Tom and Nijman are clearly both in our "best 5." Keeping either in reserve behind Bakh is a risky strategy with the immediate hopes of the team on JL10's shoulders. Many would say there is nothing worth trading Bakh away for, the question is if any of them are in the FO.
This leads directly to our starting lineup with Tom at C and Nijman at RT, something some say is slipping away as a possibility because they aren't doing it consistently in practice. What I haven't read is reports comparing performance of the line as a unit with these 3 on the field vs without. Even if Walker were ready as a starter today guaranteed that wouldn't make Bakh expendable to the team, especially with the return of Mt Caleb and Tenuta uncertain. Those are our biggest two O linemen on the roster, both out with ankle injuries. I haven't seen an update on their condition.
I think it's foolish to consider Jenkins in this as LG is the position he wants to focus on and he locks it down regardless who's playing LT. I'd love to have seen Tom getting every snap at C for weeks already with Nijman at RT, switching to LT when Bakh isn't on the field, and whoever else at RT instead of whoever else filling in at the most important position on the line. Some have said Tom is wasted at C, I don't see how that's possible with Myers getting blown up there. C and RG remain the weak spot and it's not a secret in the league. With Tom at C, who's our best RG in that lineup is unproven.
This is the complicated scenario that's been my #1 focus since week 17. Our whole offense hinges on getting this right, whatever that might mean.
Coldworld
August 18, 2023 at 08:20 am
If he went to the jets there would have to be an adjustment on the Rodgers deal to reflect that. It’s permissible to do that for future pick compensation already agreed. I’m doubtful the Jets have the trade ammunition though.
Thegreatreynoldo
August 18, 2023 at 10:56 am
Lambeau isn't a grass field. It is a hybrid. The jets stadium field is also a hybrid. I don't know if the Jets is more synthetic than grass or more grass than synthetic. IDK how it differs from Lambeau.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 03:04 pm
I stand corrected, thank you. Wiki says Lambeau field is "Kentucky bluegrass reinforced with SIS grass." I don't know what that means. From a technical standpoint I think the biggest difference is if you're on playing top of concrete or dirt. I imagine Lambeau field is dirt. I don't know about the stadium in NJ (even though I grew up there watching Joe Namath as the home team)
Placebo effect is well documented as having a bigger effect than most medicine; what Bakh thinks is probably more significant than any technical differences.
What Bakh thinks about all this (especially being traded and to who) is a big variable.
Oppy
August 19, 2023 at 01:42 am
The surface at lambeau field is "DD Grassmaster", also known as Desso GrassMaster.
It's 91% natural grass with 9% synthetic strands that get stitched into the turf to anchor the turf to a grid-like substrate below the soil line to help keep it in place.
It's basically like you are stitching real grass into the ground with a synthetic thread that designed to also look and behave like grass blades itself.
Coldworld
August 18, 2023 at 05:38 pm
The Jets just updated to the latest version of FieldTurf. It’s an “improved” synthetic surface. It is totally synthetic.
Oppy
August 19, 2023 at 01:31 am
,
greengold
August 18, 2023 at 07:35 am
After yesterday, I’m convinced NE will be the trade partner, blowing any deal the Jets can make out of the water, because Bill Belichick.
Bak practicing in full pads throughout, after being held out previously, tells me that’s the more likely scenario.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the trade isn’t made before the start of the 2023 season. The Packer will get at least an R1.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 07:47 am
Interesting idea. Their playing surface is artificial turf, with the owner open to the possibility of changing it to real grass by the 2026 soccer game. Would that make Bakh feel even more disrespected as a player? Robert Kraft wouldn't do it for football players.
Having just seen Belichek's dirty style, would Bakh even consider playing for that team? Assuming Bill had his players deliberately making dirty hits. How refs do nothing and the league doesn't review it either baffles me. If this kind of nonsense goes on I agree MLF should refuse all future joint practices.
Haven't heard of injuries caused by yesterday's practice. #59Campbell is out but that's prior to any joint practice with the Pats and he played Friday, so his injury must've happened in practice Monday.
Coldworld
August 18, 2023 at 08:22 am
If Bakh can’t play on artificial turf he’s a part time player even for us. If that’s the case, we should have already moved on.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 03:06 pm
Counterpoint:
keep Bakh happy and he'll play for less. Missing 5 games this season helps because depth behind him can be tested. The big question is what's this non-financial consideration worth to him?
TxFred
August 18, 2023 at 07:39 am
Reimaging is the Pack for '23. To that end, Baht is injury prone, has a high market value plus 2 young, talented & tough tight ends and back to also check block. I would test the market now. We barely made the boat with 12. Totally a bidness decision. Baht gets an injury and that is truly "dead money". Give the young replacements the opportunity to fight it out for the vacancy. Pack walks the walk..Draft and Develope. GPG!!!!
croatpackfan
August 18, 2023 at 07:41 am
Bruce, as I recall last (or if you like "recent") comments, those comments sounds that sound as he is all in with Packers.
So, forget the math. He will be Packer and he will retire as Packer.
And all of you who support his trade by trying to help FPQB, please stop with that. He chosed his path and destiny not later than at the beginning of the TC 2020. Now he should se the consequences (good or bad)! Stop talking about him!
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 07:54 am
Croat, I also think it's possible that Bakh prefers playing in GB to any other option. MLF being nice is one thing, but Bakh is valued here and that includes letting him practice no more than is sensible for his knee, prioritizing having him in top form for games. If they also have him NOT play on artificial turf, that may well be worth millions to Bakh.
We only have 5 games on artificial turf this season, does any other team have so few? This is a big issue to Bakh.
GregC
August 18, 2023 at 08:21 am
I sure hope they don't feel the need to have Bakhtiari sit out games on artificial turf. Is he really worth all that money if he can't play in five games? I understand the reasoning, but when I look at it another way, it seems like madness.
T7Steve
August 18, 2023 at 08:47 am
And what if it's a playoff game on turf? Does he void his bonus?
GregC
August 18, 2023 at 09:35 am
I was wondering about the game in Minnesota too. The Vikings have some good edge rushers. Do you really want to sit Bakhtiari for that game? If Yosh Nijman or another backup can handle being thrown into that situation, against a division rival in a noisy dome, why isn't he good enough to start every game?
Boneman
August 18, 2023 at 07:43 am
All in on youth movement! Lets get what we can for Bahk and then welcome him back to ring of honor in a few years. Definitely one of best players in Packers history.
Packer_Fan
August 18, 2023 at 07:48 am
What???? All these trade rumors. All the rumors about veteran signings. IMHO they all are useless. Gute and Lafleur have been consistent. No trades. No veteran signings. They are going with the team they have to start the season. And with Bak and controlled use of his knee. And it appears the Pack will be a competitive team.
Perhaps. Just Perhaps. If the Packers indeed are competitive and in the race for the playoffs, then you could see moves to shore up weak spots on the roster. Especially if the injury bug hits.
But otherwise, what we are seeing in the pre season is the team for this year. And this makes total sense for a team rebuilding or resetting or whatever one may want to call it.
And for me as an owner, perfect.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 07:58 am
I like it 👍
Have you seen anything about comparison between the O line with Bakh Tom and Nijman all on the field at the same time vs not? To me these 3 are clearly part of our "best 5," but if the overall performance of the line doesn't noticably improve maybe the change isn't worth it?
Packer_Fan
August 18, 2023 at 09:18 am
That would imply Tom is the center. And they have practiced that alignment. We will know once they close practice and come out with the starters against the Bears.
But the season is long. All top six OL will get plenty of snaps. This probably will be Baks last year. Continually resting the knee is a sign of too much wear and tear on it
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 03:10 pm
Thank you for your thoughts. Chicago is 3 weeks away, we'll know much more by that first possession. Bringing out the same line they ended last season with has always been the most likely scenario.
GPG
Thegreatreynoldo
August 18, 2023 at 11:18 am
I don't think Tom has a single rep as the #1 OC. That is, I have never seen Bakh, Jenkins, Tom, Runyan, Nijman line up at the same time. Maybe that's coming.
@ Packerfan: I suppose they could give Tom a try at RG. Runyan has looked pretty good to me as the starting RG, though not a high quality starter, a decent starter.
Coldworld
August 18, 2023 at 02:37 pm
One might say they have gone out of their way to avoid Bakh, Nijman and Tom together. Odd really.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 03:12 pm
Yes, very odd. Especially with the claims about "best 5." Just diversion so the league can't game plan for us all off-season?
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 03:13 pm
I can't see Tom replacing JRJ as a sensible change.
PackfanNY
August 18, 2023 at 07:49 am
If Gute feels we can move on from Bakh then I have no problem trading him. However, I am not going full fire sale here. Most of the smoke about Bakhtiari is coming from NY. Obviously Rodgers is buddies with the guy and the Jets have problems with the Oline. He might fit perfectly there. The PROBLEM is the Jets don’t have the Draft assets we should want. Contrary to NY media we are not in the business of helping anyone. We don’t need to make Bakhtiari “happy” by sending him to play with his buddy. If Gute wants to make a deal it’s time to find another trade partner.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 07:59 am
I seriously doubt Bakh would be happy playing on artificial turf with either the Jets or the Patriots. We have 5 games on artificial turf, does any other team have so few?
PackfanNY
August 18, 2023 at 08:05 am
If I counted correctly 7 teams play more games on grass in 2023. Here’s the list. A chart is within this article.
https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2023/5/12/23721193/nfl-grass-turf-numbe...
michael562
August 18, 2023 at 01:52 pm
MIA plays the same number of games as GB on grass, and they may have just lost their LT.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 03:31 pm
What a great answer to my question, thank you! So 11 other teams play at least as many games this season on grass, if you can even call Lambeau Field grass (I think you can, but I'm less certain of that after investigating more closely)
Coldworld
August 18, 2023 at 05:28 pm
In 2018 the Packers five-month reconstruction transitioned from the GrassMaster polypropylene fibers it installed before the 2007 season to polyethylene-based SIS “Grass”.
Instead of the previous three-to-four-week timetable to stitch the field, a single machine shipped from Japan worked around the clock from July 9-16. It stitched fibers ¾ inch from each other and seven inches deep, sticking up just under an inch above the ground.
Synthetic fibers are intended to provide a safe stabilization for the sand underneath the field, preventing the ground from getting pushed around and becoming uneven over the course of a long season. It also allows drainage but gives the grass roots nothing to cling to. That’s where the stitched fibers come in. Lambeau is therefore a hybrid field, with a closer to unsaturated turf grip quotient.
Guam
August 18, 2023 at 08:06 am
If the Packers decide to trade Bahk, I really don't care who the trade partner is as long as the Packers get good value. The Packers may need to get a touch more value from the Jets just because an all-pro LT will help the Jets record and that diminishes the value of the Rodgers trade.
If the Packers got the Jets #1, #2 and a later pick (#5?) next year, I would be fine with that.
PackfanNY
August 18, 2023 at 08:12 am
We already own the Jets 2024 #1 or #2 (not likely). Jets are not a great match based on assets unless you are looking at 2025 picks. Unlikely Jets want to do that because that will be post Rodgers.
Guam
August 18, 2023 at 09:05 am
Do you really think the Packers will get significantly more for Bahk than a #2 pick plus a little something else? He is in his early 30's with a serious knee injury in his past. If the Packers wound up with the Jets #1, #2 and a little something else, I think that would be good value for completion of the Rodgers trade plus Bahk.
However I am not a GM nor a good evaluator of football talent, so there is a high probability of error here.....:)
stockholder
August 18, 2023 at 12:08 pm
A 3 team trade? if not a # 2 in 2025?
Either way, they will likely be late rd. picks.
(Thats why the #1 language was added}
murf7777
August 18, 2023 at 08:31 am
I’m not a fan of trading Bak unless Packers would get a minimum of a 1st round and more if he stays injury free or plays a certain % of time. The packers are taking a far majority of the salary cap hit so the team is getting a great bargain for one of the best LT. I’d rather they keep Bak and extend his contract for a two more years to spread out the SC hit in 2024 if they are only going to get a 2nd rounder or less.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 03:34 pm
Agreed, murf. No draft pick is worth Bakh.
Coldworld
August 19, 2023 at 10:31 am
Bakh has refused to extend his deal in that way in both the last two years as I understand it. I do not know his reasons, but I also don’t know if it is likely he’d change positions on that.
greengold
August 18, 2023 at 10:51 am
This is SO spot on, PackfanNY!!! Well said.
That chart is awesome too. IF what NE says is their newly renovated surface is "superior" to grass, they would offer 13 games in 2023 on grass or better surfaces.
The whole Bakhtiari all of a sudden practicing in front of Belichick, along with his overt attempts to see the NYJ shortcomings at OL continue are 2 factors that make me think they are serious prospective trade partners. Add in a 3rd factor, their recent acquisition of Ezekiel Elliott at RB, one who is known to have a love for running between the tackles... and there's some math to add up. And, it kinda does, quite well.
Sending Bakhtiari to the Jets only works if the Jets agree for us downright fleece them. HIGH HIGH HIGH compensation for the Packers.
All that BS with the conditional pick would have to be remanded to GB acquiring full rights to their 2024 R1 outright, PLUS their 2025 R1, PLUS draft capital compensation for having his 1st season essentially "pre-paid," by the Packers. What are we talking about? $18M??? You don't just give that away... especially when you consider any pick we would get in compensation might become a lower round selection.
GregC
August 18, 2023 at 08:16 am
I've thought all along that they should trade Bakhtiari if the price is right. In 2021 they had a very good season without him, and Aaron Rodgers won the MVP award. Bakhtiari probably doesn't figure into their plans after this year anyway. It would be a big risk for another team to acquire him, but all it takes is one team to make it happen.
Having said that, I'm fine with having him on the Packers this season. He seems to have turned his attitude around, and he's still a great player.
HarryHodag
August 18, 2023 at 08:17 am
If some team wants him, trade him. That knee is a ticking time bomb and it will go off if history of other knee injuries holds true. Sportrac says the Jets have $11 million in cap space. I don't know if they can swing it, but I would send him there this season before his knee blows out and the Packers owe him lots of money as he sits rehabbing.
Since Rodgers has assumed assistant GM duties in New York as he did in Green Bay, it might happen.
Tater
August 18, 2023 at 08:30 am
I think they should keep Bakh for now for the sole purpose of protecting Love’s blindside. As a first-year starter, a good OL will give Love confidence and help him flourish. Love is not at a place yet where he can compensate for a bad OL. A bad OL can stifle his development and make him the next David Carr (Hou). They always have the option to trade Bakh later, before the trade deadline, if circumstances change and possibly get even more for him.
Big picture – The development of Love is more important than a draft pick.
Bearmeat
August 18, 2023 at 10:14 am
This. You need three offensive tackles to be competent in today’s NFL. Love is a new starter. And we don’t know what we have with depth yet.
I wouldn’t be opposed to trading him at the deadline for max compensation if, and only if we are healthy and the young guys look very stable and promising
LambeauPlain
August 18, 2023 at 10:27 am
Here's some bacon, chives and shredded cheddar on that Tater!
Thanks for your comment. Saved me posting mine. Bakh, Jenks, Tom, JRJ, Yosh are the best 5 for the Packers season and QB's success long term.
greengold
August 18, 2023 at 11:22 am
I'm leaning towards THIS being the right answer. I prefer this, and if Bakhtiari can remain healthy, a new extension for him of 3-4 years.
The problem is, there's risk involved to the Packers should he wind up injured in 2023.
I'm not saying I'm for trading him now, but, I could see it happening for that risk assessment they would immediately assume alone in 2023. The fact that he is now highly tradable, IMO, furthers the notion that GB might actually do so. Any acquiring team would want to have him in their fold asap.
In playing him throughout the 2023 season, my opinion is the Packers would be over a barrel in 2024, with his $40M deal hanging in the balance, his age moved up to 33, GB having to decide upon the best low-ball offer, and, getting Bakhtiari's actual consent for his eventual restructure team in trade.
The Packers were trying to reward Bakhtiari when they signed him to his current deal Nov. 15th, 2020, making him the highest paid OL in the NFL. The knee injury he suffered Dec. 24th could not have been foreseen. The Packers are still reeling from that major blow to their future. I think everybody is trying to figure out what that future is now, including Bakhtiari, as best they can.
IMO, our best case scenario might be that he stays healthy for years, has a great, successful 2023, and wants to finish out his career in GB, agreeing to another contract extension of about 3-4 years, and able to perform at a top level at the age of 35-36.
That would involve a ton of cash, and a ton of risk.
Tater
August 18, 2023 at 01:52 pm
I guess I don’t fear 2024 as much as you do. Yes, he would have a 40.5M cap hit, but 21.5M would be payment if he is on the team. Assuming he is not worth 21.5M and he won’t renegotiate, we can cut him with 19M dead money. That is much better than Rodgers 40M dead money hit this year. By 2025 we should be “paid up” for going all in the last few years.
I know we would only get a comp pick for him in ’25 instead of a high pick now, but it is worth it to help Love develop and keep a “winning atmosphere”.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 03:47 pm
GG,
consider this possibility: giving Bakh consideration in terms of not playing any games on artificial turf, and not practicing unless he's in great shape to do so,
how much is that non-financial consideration worth to Bakh? It's not nothing. It's quite a lot, and the team can afford it. Assuming Gutey doesn't trade away Nijman or any developing O linemen.
If he'd sign for next and future years at $12MM instead of 19? He might like the idea instead of unknown demands somewhere else? That's a hefty "hometown discount" but also a huge sum of money, for playing a game you love with a team you love.
Regardless of specifics I think there are possibilities here ...
TXCHEESE
August 18, 2023 at 08:49 am
I believe Gute would have to be blown away with a trade offer, to even consider it. The Worst thing they could do is deplete the current OL in front of Love. Them playing well is key to helping the offensive find it's footing with all the young guns.
You would think the Jets FO would be tired of AR wanting all his buddies on the roster. Hell, pretty soon he'll be insisting he needs Davante and Jordy!
Leatherhead
August 18, 2023 at 09:08 am
Are we trying to win? Then why would we trade away our best offensive lineman?
I don't get this. Nothing gets done on offense unless people get blocked and we want to trade away our best lineman, the guy who is going to protect Jordan Loves backside, for some future draft pick? I think this is a terrible idea, frankly.
Let's play with the team we have. It's a good group. Let's see what they can do before we start making huge changes.
greengold
August 18, 2023 at 11:47 am
On the surface I agree with all of this. 100%.
But, LH, it doesn't account for the risk of re-injury, and what that might mean to a possible 2024 scenario where he is un-tradable, and GB gets smashed in the face with that $40M balloon.
Do you foresee a possible trade partner in the NFL next year with an easy $20M in cap space to spend on a 33 year old LT? If so, for what in trade, exactly?
This is not a knock on your intents here, which I do agree with. I'm just throwing this out as something the Packers organization might be considering moving forward this year.
It's not as simple as the Packers saying "F it! We're not trading him!" There has to be consent from Bakhtiari himself to agree with a more amicable extension. The team would need those assurances to keep him through the 2026 or 2027 season.
Add to this, what will THAT cost? We might want to say "who cares?" I think it is doable, and I wonder if the FO believe so, and if Bakhtiari wants to stay here? Is GB his best chance for a Super Bowl ring? That might be what DB is soul searching right now, or, he might be in the middle of deciding upon a destination somewhere else.
???
Leatherhead
August 18, 2023 at 12:41 pm
I cannot predict the future, but I am certain that we are a better team now with Bakhtiari at LT. It gives us a shot at a dominant left side, which will make Love a better QB, which will make Watson, Musgrave, and the others better receivers, which will make our offense better. We do not have an abundance of quality linemen…..trading him now weakens the team.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 03:48 pm
LH, this is the math that makes sense to me!
greengold
August 18, 2023 at 06:44 pm
Here I thought you were going to say something about staying at a Holiday Inn Express last night…
I agree if he’s healthy, and the limited reps he’s gotten through camp is nothing more than the load/risk reduction plan known as “the Clifton plan.”
TGR and I were discussing Bakhtiari yesterday. “How many more good years do you think he’s got left in him, if he’s truly healed and able to play?”
“About 3-4 years.”
We both looked at each other, nodding in full agreement.
“Maybe more…” agreeing further.
I firmly believe that this could be the case. There’s no crystal ball to foretell the future. I’m in on having one of the best LT’s in the NFL blocking for Love’s blindside, and I’ll hope for the ultimate success in this scenario, including Bak getting rings with GB.
If it’s smoke, intended to up bidding with other possible trade partners making offers, so be it. I love Yosh too, and have been impressed a bit with both Walker & Jones on the level of Yosh’s first year backing up Bak.
Since'61
August 18, 2023 at 09:14 am
From a business perspective and the short term future of the team perspective the Packers should trade Bak now before he is injured again and then the Packers get nothing for him and could be stuck with a huge cap hit. If the Packers can get some reasonable compensation for him such as a 2 and 3 in 2024 they should make the trade. commit to the young guys and move on.
They waited one season too long on Rodgers why make the same error with Bak. Take the money or in this case the picks and run.
I would hate to see Bak go but it's a young man's game and a healthy man's game. Everyone's day comes. Make the move while Bak still has viable trade value.
Sentimentality doesn't win SBs and the ROI on sentiment is very limited and very short term. Cold, harsh reality of the business. The players and the owners know it.
Thanks, Since '61
Tater
August 18, 2023 at 09:23 am
I agree with everything you said, but I still think we should keep him for now per my comment above.
greengold
August 18, 2023 at 12:02 pm
Tater, I love the sentiment, and share the same sentiment. However, a season ending injury might force us into having to absorb $40M next year, with nothing to show for it.
That is high stakes poker right there.
Let's put it this way, I haven't heard ONE WORD about Bakhtiari and the Packers working together on another contract extension, which would put all of this talk to bed.
Since'61
August 18, 2023 at 06:24 pm
Tater - I have no problem if the Packers keep Bak. When healthy he's a great OT and he's been a great Packer. But if the plan is to move him at some point then I say do it while he still has trade value. After this season his value will go down even if he does not suffer another injury.
He will be another year older and any potential trading partner will know that the Packers want to move him due to his cap hit. In that situation they will wait for the Packers to release him and the Packers get nothing in return.
That's why I say move him now.
Your points about protecting Love and getting him through this season are sound but Love is just as exposed with Myers and Runyon on the OL as he is with or without Bak. We have Nijman, Walker, and Caleb Jones to cover the OT positions. I would put Nijman at LT and Walker at RT with Jones as the swing backup. They would not be as good as Bak but remember Bak took over as a rookie who was drafted in the 4th round and he turned into a great LT, arguably the best in the league when he was healthy.
It might not be the perfect situation for Love but I think it would work as the offense and the OL get more time playing together. Time will tell. Thanks, Since '61
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 03:50 pm
A second AND third round pick, next draft? As much as I want to keep Bakh, that's very tempting ...
greengold
August 18, 2023 at 04:36 pm
No way would I trade him away for anything less than an R1 for his services, and an R2 because the Packers have essentially pre-paid his 2023 salary.
The point, thankfully, is moot. Gutekunst saying Bak won't be traded. Good. That tells me they'll work out an extension past 2024, one that I hope is more amicable.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 06:47 pm
If you factor in this season being prepaid into its own draft pick, $19MM is worth less than a first rounder? Hmm, sounds like 2 first rounders to me (to be read in auctioneer voice, lol)
MooPack
August 18, 2023 at 09:55 am
The Jets put in a new field. Not grass, but according to article highly tested. Grain meet salt, but I don’t believe that will be any sort of sticking point.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/36003498/new-field-turf-installed-me...
I was one that thought DB was going be be part of the AR trade. It’s possible the Packers felt that a separation of deals would give them better compensation. Also possibility they are letting the Jets squirm a little. By switching 1st round draft slots with the Jets, they (Jets) lost out on one of the top remaining Tackles. So the jets went with a OLB that was very much a reach to many. I thought the pick odd with everyone knowing the Jets biggest need was OL. If these rumors are true, the Packers again hold the chips. I was very confident the AR trade was a done deal. This rumor may just be that. I wouldn’t discount it, but we need something more solid than the Jets need an OT and AR and DB are big friends. However, I believe if a trade is to be made, it’s the Jets or no one.
As for compensation, I’d be ecstatic with a 2nd. It would be just as Bruce laid it out above. Simple.
And as I’ve said in other threads I’d be looking at this from the perspective that the Packers making the Super Bowl is slim to none. Let the transition be complete. Go with youth. Save some $. Either way this will be an exciting year to see what the Packers have built.
MooPack
August 18, 2023 at 10:37 am
I’m suggesting the Jets always felt like they have a trade for Bakh in their back pocket. Both teams see how their season is going by the trade deadline.
greengold
August 18, 2023 at 12:13 pm
Bill Belichick enters the chat!!! LOL.
Moo, Bakhtiari essentially worked out for Belichick yesterday. He was standing right behind Bak in the middle of the field watching all of it, with LaFleur and Mark Murphy looking on.
The more I thought about it after practice, the more I felt this was a possible trade in the making for NE. Plus, Belichick loves screwing the NYJ over.
I wouldn't put it past Belichick to offer his 2024 R1+ in exchange for Bakhtiari right now. He might make an offer the Packers can't refuse. The Patriots currently have $14.07M cap space to work with for 2023, after signing RB Ezekiel Elliott.
Do you think Bill wants to run Elliott all day, every game, while screwing the Jets? I do.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 06:38 pm
Moo,
good article. What it doesn't say and what is most important, is this stuff (whatever it is) installed on top of dirt, or concrete? I honestly do not know but I think it's probably on top of concrete because not only do 0 parts of it grow, the previous surface was also 100% artificial.
Whereas Lambeau is probably on top of dirt because it's Kentucky Bluegrass growing with other stuff mixed in (however that works)
I don't care what kind of filling you stuff it with, 600+ pounds of NFL linemen driving each other to the ground for all they're worth, you slip on that the wrong way and you're knee will know it landed on concrete. Whereas even very hard-packed dirt will have at least some give. The question of if it really makes the difference between getting injured or not at some point becomes less important than what any individual believes, and Bakh is very vocal on this point. And I'm not about to tell him he's wrong!
LambeauPlain
August 18, 2023 at 11:02 am
Russ Ball and MM made this cap hades. Management by committee rarely works out. But I suppose the financial mess now dominates the agenda during the "Committee" Meetings.
My greater concern is trading your best OL talent now blows a hole in the OL depth and endangers the season. The doom loop that could follow has long term implications.
And I am concerned Butkus is not adept at coaching up players. As OL coach Myers has regressed, Newman is now a liability, Hanson is a JAG. Rhyan was foolishly undisciplined. So I question if Walker, Jones or Tenuta are ready to start yet in case of injury. Granted, Tom has performed well and maybe Butkus helped him develop. But Tom did come to GB with a solid resume.
I would be very disappointed if Bakht was traded this season. Would I be surprised? With this FO? No. At least Gutey, not Ball or MM would be making the trade deal.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 06:42 pm
LP, I'm not sure a Bakh trade would be decided upon free of influence from MM and Ball. Neither am I sure any 2 draft picks would be adequate compensation for losing Bakh.
But it wouldn't be football without heartbreak. There's risk either way ...
coolhand
August 18, 2023 at 11:06 am
I am in the do not trade Bakh camp. He is our best OL with Jenkins a close second. We need a solid line for this young offense to gel. But if we do trade him, PLEASE Gute do not trade him to the Jets. The Jets have O line trouble and I for one would not want to help them and ARod get better. I want to see ARod running for his life after his attitude in GB the past 2 seasons.
Fubared
August 18, 2023 at 12:19 pm
If he can play why not keep him you already committed the big money. and he isnt giving a home town discount, he knows this is his last big payday and he is keepin da mooooney.
Part time or limited Bakh, I'd unload him for picks.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 03:25 pm
Sung to Iron Maiden's Run To The Hills, lol
greengold
August 18, 2023 at 04:40 pm
"Run for your L-I-I-I----FE!!!!"
I can dig that. LOL
Tater
August 18, 2023 at 11:19 am
Just wanted to add one more nugget of information. Currently GB is #3 in dead money this year at 57M behind TB (74M) and LA Rams (72M). Trading Bakh would add 19M (per this article) to move GB to #1 with 76M dead money.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/
Tater
August 18, 2023 at 11:55 am
Does the math check out? Packers currently have 13M in cap space, less effective cap space (practice squad, mid-season signings, IR replacements, etc.). How do we fit a 19M 2023 cap charge? I know you could probably write a long boring article on ways the Packers can add space. But is a 19M cap hit doable at this time?
greengold
August 18, 2023 at 12:33 pm
He's already on our cap for 2023 with a charge of $21,336,249. If traded now, $1,165.000 + $600,000 roster bonus + $700,000 workout bonus transfers off our books and onto the trading team's cap. If I'm not mistaken, that should result in a net gain on our cap for 2023 of $2,253,235.
His $19,083,107 dead cap charge for 2024 could then be spread out over 2 years.
TGR knows this best.
I believe this was what he was talking about in his article on Bakhtiari trade scenarios and how they would affect our cap. Look at the $13M you pointed to. Now, add $2.25M to that, which I believe gives us our new cap room number for 2023 of about $15.225M. Take that 2024 dead cap charge, split it in half, that's $9,541,508.50 which would subtract out in 2023, leaving us around $5.7M as a rainy day fund, just squeaking under, as TGR had mentioned.
Next year would be another $9.5+M dead cap charge, but, entirely free and clear thereafter.
This is as best I can relay... accept this mission (these #s) at your own risk!!! LOL (reel to reel tape smolders...!)
Tater
August 18, 2023 at 02:09 pm
Yeah, I think you are right. The article said there would be 38M of dead money (19M this year, 19M next year). But the salary cap number I used already has a 19M cap charge. If traded, the 19M would just move from current cap charge to dead cap charge.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 06:50 pm
Correct. The nomenclature is meaningless to anything that affects the roster. (Or limited to approx $2 MM this year due to relatively small amounts not paid yet)
CanPackFan
August 18, 2023 at 11:36 am
This is a well reasoned article. The numbers don't lie. If GB had a really great chance this year of getting to the dance, I'd say keep Bakh. Football's an uncertain business. But age and injury history are not. GB held onto AR one season too long and almost didn't get a reasonable return. With a young team ,a salary cap situation to clean up and Bakh's knee uncertainty, it's time. Bakh has been a great LT and a great Packer. But it's time...
Fubared
August 18, 2023 at 12:17 pm
I thought I just read, could be wrong, that the left tackle of the Jets just had an injury in pre season game. They didnt report how bad it was but it didnt sound good. They may be looking?
greengold
August 18, 2023 at 01:10 pm
NO TRADE IN 2023!!!
"First of all, we're not going to trade David. So just get that out of the way," Brian Gutekunst told Ryan Wood today. He further stated that Bakhtiari is in "a good place."
GOOD!
At face value, this might point to them going long term through 2023 with an extension for Bakhtiari in the near future potentially having been agreed upon. Could be smoke... whatever. I'm taking Gutekunst at his word here. That will be great for the beginning of the Jordan Love era here in Green Bay.
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/brian-gute...
MooPack
August 18, 2023 at 01:35 pm
GG, beat me to it. Good on ya. I believe Gute as well.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 06:57 pm
While I don't especially believe that article because everything's subject to change, I'm happy to stop thinking about this because my initial reaction to the idea was - "why would you willingly lose your best O lineman now?"
I can move on to speculating that the obvious best 5 includes Bakh Tom and Nijman and they've never been seen in the same line because that's all they ever practice with in private just to pull one over on the league.
Lolno I'm just voicing the only wildly speculative idea left that I haven't come across written by anyone else :)
jhtobias
August 18, 2023 at 02:18 pm
Come on why in the world would you trade bak now you have until trade deadline to see. I guess unless some team offers up some absolutley insane offer no way. Tell the jets here is the deal if you want bak make the rodgers trade a guaranteed 1st in 2024 guve us your 2nd and 3rd in 2024 plus if bak allows you to restructure his deal to save money that is an extra 2025 1st round pick . Then ok maybe lol
SicSemperTyrannis
August 18, 2023 at 07:00 pm
Too cheap 😎
Tater
August 18, 2023 at 02:34 pm
I think a lot of people here have the attitude that “if we don’t have a chance at a Super Bowl, let’s have a fire sale and get the most draft capital we can for the future. Who cares if we don’t win now (in a non-Superbowl year and salary cap strapped), we will win even more in the future with the extra draft capital and cap”. For example, say losing Bahk cost us 2 games this year. The draft pick we use in the trade will gain us 4 games in the future. I net win of 2 games. This is some sort of fantasy football logic that does not play out that way in real life. Winning is still important even if you’re in a rebuild (or whatever you call it). Losing will give you high draft picks, but you will be further from the prize. The Cleveland Browns have had draft capital coming out the wazoo, but they still suck. It is a losing environment. It is better to be like Mike Holmgren. When he got here, they (he and Wolf) had a rebuild on there hands, but they were still winning 9 games a year. It is important to put out a competitive team and keep that winning environment going. Because once you lose it you may not get it back.
Oppy
August 19, 2023 at 01:50 am
Too many football fans treat the sport like baseball nowadays.
You don't trade away a player like Bakhtiari just because he has value today.
He's an important player. We have a first-year starter at QB. Give him the opportunity to find his way into the NFL with his blindside protected.
There's little chance the Packers re-sign Bakh at his age with his injury history. OL peak around this age due to the technical nature of their craft, but their bodies disintegrate quickly. Packers keeping DBak through the end of his contract likely means they're going to get excellent performance provided the knee is managed, and the contract runs out right about the time you expect a rapid drop off / retirement.
The pain on the cap is Rodgers related. They cut it out and it's just a matter of time before the health returns. Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.