The Lass Word: The Window is Now Open
Packers entering an era of rare opportunity.
By KenLass

In the National Football League, if you have a solid organization, a capable front office, and a talented head coach and staff, you expect your team to be competitive for the playoffs, and perhaps the Super Bowl, every season. But if your leadership knows what it’s doing, occasionally there will be spans of time when your team reaches a point where its chances of winning a championship are optimal, or at least more likely. We like to refer to these periods as “windows”.
With the contract extension just signed by quarterback Jordan Love, thereby stabilizing the most important position, the Green Bay Packers have just opened such a window. For roughly the next four years, this team figures to have the talent, the finances, the coaching staff, the front office, and certainly the fan support to win its first title since 2010.
It’s not just having a bunch of good players. It’s having a bunch of good players who are entering the prime of their careers at the same time, and yet remaining affordable enough to hold together for at least a few seasons. It’s having a coaching staff that has demonstrated the ability to develop young talent and have them ready for the biggest of stages. It’s having a front office that has a knack for spotting talent off the street and in the draft, and acquiring that talent while maintaining enough cap space to fill in any gaps. Right now this organization checks all those boxes.
The main cog in opening the window is, of course, the Love extension. The headlines screamed four years at $220 million, an annual average of $55 million per year. But those numbers are a mirage. Average annual salaries are a simple and clear way for fans to compare apples to apples. It enables them to easily compare player contracts. Agents love to use these figures because they only take into account new money, and therefore make it appear the agents have done a much better job for their clients But in terms of actual impact to the team, average annual salary is meaningless. There is only one number that matters. That is the cap hit. How much of the total amount of money I am allowed to pay my players does this deal eat up?
According to Spotrac, the Love deal is structured in a way that makes his cap hit tolerable for the next four seasons. The hit is just $20.7 million this year, $29.7 million in 2025, $36.1 million in 2026, and $42.4 million in 2027. With the salary cap expected to expand with each passing year, those numbers should be more than affordable, and won’t hinder the team’s ability to build a quality team around the quarterback. In 2028, Love’s cap hit balloons to $74.2 million. But the Packers will never let it get to that. Surely they will either restructure the contract, or let Love go if he is not working out. The team can get out of the deal after three seasons at a reasonably practical cost.
But far from showing signs of regression, there is every reason to believe Love is maturing into one of the best signal callers in the league, capable of leading the Packers to playoff victories, and perhaps more. He will be entering his prime over the next four seasons. He has an all pro caliber running back in Josh Jacobs that is already in his prime and is just 26 years old. He has an offensive line featuring an all pro caliber guard in Elgton Jenkins, who is also the oldest member of the unit at just 28. Young tackles Zach Tom and Rasheed Walker are only going to get better. That doesn’t even take into account the potential of first round draft pick Jordan Morgan.
Talented receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs don’t have to be paid for two years, and their equally talented teammates Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks for three years. All will enter their prime during that period.
On defense, Jaire Alexander, Rashan Gary, Xavier McKinney and Kenny Clark are at their apex right now. Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt are ripe to get there this year, while rookies Edgerrin Cooper and Javon Bullard will get every chance to blossom with a season or two under their belt. Preston Smith is likely past his prime, but 2023 first round pick Lukas Van Ness stands ready to become a star.
With Love and Clark extended, there are no must-sign free agents on the horizon in 2025. AJ Dillon, Eric Stokes and Josh Myers are the biggest names. All three may not even be on the team next year. That means extra cap money for free agent shopping in March.
This is a roster good enough and ready enough to win it all, though looking around the NFC, it won’t be easy. The 49ers aren’t going anywhere. The Eagles and Lions are top notch. The Rams are good but Matthew Stafford is getting old. The Cowboys’ window is starting to close, while the Falcons, Bears and Vikings may be a few years away.
Windows don’t stay open forever. The system doesn’t allow it. Just ask the Patriots, or the Steelers, or the Saints. Eventually the Packers will have to pay big money to keep a few of their stars, while being forced to let others go (such as Aaron Jones), while still others age out. But for now, the price is right and the opportunity is at hand. The next four years look like the best chance to add another Lombardi trophy to the shelf.
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
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Comments (46)
TKWorldWide
July 29, 2024 at 06:18 am
Solid points made here, Ken.
In addition, overall injuries must stay at a manageable level. Love must not regress. Hafley’s D has got to measure up. A dependable kicker must emerge. Every year there are players who exceed and those who disappoint. Naturally, we need more of the former than the latter.
If a fan can’t be optimistic right now, they might as well choose another team to support.
GPG!
NickPerry
July 29, 2024 at 06:32 am
"If a fan can’t be optimistic right now, they might as well choose another team to support."
EXACTLY TK.... Thus team is loaded. I always thought 2025 would be when the "Window" started while looking at this team at the start of last season. After doing what they did last season, the draft they had this year, I think they had a REAL chance at a SB starts this year as well as 2025, 26, and 27.
This team got better and better as the 2023 season progressed. This team will be no different. With each passing week this team will get better. Hafley's defense will get better and better and so will MLF's offense.
TKWorldWide
July 29, 2024 at 07:43 am
Nobody wants to be a “homer/fanboy”, but at this time of year, why would anyone think the sky is falling?
Some of the key spots: added a 1st rounder to OL, added Cooper to the LB corps, Bullard at safety, and Jacobs and Lloyd at RB. The corner opposite Jaire is mainly a battle between Stokes and Valentine. It looks to me like GB has depth and/or options all over the roster. Can’t wait to get things going!
LLCHESTY
July 29, 2024 at 08:33 am
"but at this time of year, why would anyone think the sky is falling?"
Thy name be Stockholder?
T7Steve
July 29, 2024 at 06:37 am
TKW " overall injuries must stay at a manageable level." There will always be injuries, and like you, I hope they are minimal.
The nice thing about this young and relatively cheap team is that they can afford to keep competitive depth at all positions and not lose too much when going to a backup. Last season taught them how important the "next man up" is and that if you're not at your best (John Runyan) your backup may replace you. You might even be worth ten mill a season to another team.
Naples Blvd
July 29, 2024 at 06:27 am
That window is cracked open when you have 34 draft picks in 3 years and your GM is red hot.
LambeauPlain
July 29, 2024 at 07:08 am
The last two drafts have been his best two. And outside of 2018, very productive drafts overall...but also at FA talent acquisition.
Gutey seems to be an adept manager of the excellent staff he has assembled.
Show me a manager who is outstanding managing his direct reports and I will expect to see a high performing staff.
Gutey's 10 scouts and 20 or so direct reports seem to be on the same page with the Personnel Department's Goals, strategy and tactics.
For some reason he has still not ascended to GM of Football Operations as Ted's replacement.
Murphy put in his "temporary" management by committee 7 years ago with himself as Chairman (mostly to assuage McCarthy's complaints and elevate his power). MM had issues with Ball and was fearing Ball would replace Ted. Yet Mgmt by Committee still endures. Murphy seems to enjoy being the "chairman".
Gutey should become the GM of the entire football team once New Packer President Policy takes over. I don't see Policy being the de facto Chairman Murphy has been. Policy seems more like Harlan and be President of the Packers.
LLCHESTY
July 29, 2024 at 08:48 am
I think the biggest positive from Gutey is he seems to have learned from past mistakes in his earlier drafts. The sheer number of youngsters achieving success is unsustainable and teams don't usually get 10-12 picks in consecutive seasons but if he continues to balance the short and long term needs of the team and can avoid having really crappy drafts sustaining the run of success should continue. Now it's about adding a ring while the players from the recent drafts are still cheap.
LambeauPlain
July 29, 2024 at 11:50 am
My Dad told me mistakes are great teachers, just don't let them teach you the same lesson twice.
I think Gutey has learned from them too. Successful managers have to learn from mistakes.
And not just Gutey, but his Personnel Team too. They are adding new players with talent, performance, and high character evidenced in college, but also via FAs...McKinney, Jacobs for ex.
WestCoastPackerBacker
July 29, 2024 at 12:28 pm
Why do fans worry so much about something that is working? There are issues with your plan. And I'm not sure the issues back in the day were with Ball, maybe so. But what I read is that McCarthy and Thompson were barely speaking to each other towards the end of their time together, which is ridiculous because the guy acquiring talent HAS to get the kinds of players the coach needs. Maybe Ball was operating in a vacuum too, thus Murphy's comment about silos.
But the issue is that it is hard to work for someone you have been a peer with for years, and it is not easy to manage someone who has been a peer for years. By putting Gutey above LaFleur, you put that dynamic in place and change their relationship. With them as peers, it makes it tough for one of them to make decisions to save their job and not what is best for the team. But if you put one GM in charge, his decisions may be about what is right for him and not for the entire coach/team.
Maybe they will do this next year, but I'm not worried about something that seems to be working just fine.
barutanseijin
July 29, 2024 at 02:23 pm
TT not talking to MM was probably a symptom of TT’s health problems. Murphy did not handle that well at all.
mnbadger
July 29, 2024 at 12:17 pm
Dare I say Smokin' Hot!
GPG!
Cheezehead72
July 29, 2024 at 06:36 am
Hey like all other Packer fans Love's contract is more than I wanted it to be. At least he is on the fiels and I look at it this way if he takes us to the SB and wins it is worth it. He has shown some upside so I believe he will get better. I also see this team getting better. And that is coming from a pessimistic realist. They are young and look to get better. Many teams would love to be in the Packers' situation.
HawkPacker
July 29, 2024 at 06:59 am
As the years tick by, these 'younger' players get older and GB will not be able to pay all of them. There are certain key positions where we need to pay or have a lot of 'good' players such as our current WR's. These guys are good and at this point none of them are considered a #1 WR. That is fine with me and I like what the FO is doing here. In a few years, certain WR's will want to be paid and we can't pay everybody.
I think that we need to draft a good WR almost yearly depending on our other needs and what is available in the draft. It appears that Gute/Ball are pretty good at 'looking down the road' to see where we are at at any given point.
I hope this year's draft compares favorably to the two previous drafts as we will have very good to great starters in most positions with good depth. The future does look bright for the Packers!
Bitternotsour
July 29, 2024 at 09:38 am
Keep picking the best players on the board with an emphasis on positions of need. It's how guys like Wicks show up. Re-sign your core players. Stay young. Stay fast. Churn the roster. With fresh players, the message stays fresh.
Win.
WestCoastPackerBacker
July 29, 2024 at 12:30 pm
Think of what they've gotten in later rounds? Wicks, Rasheed Walker, Carrington Valentine, perhaps Kalen King this year. This is the kind of success in the draft that really builds a competitive roster!
greengold
July 29, 2024 at 07:21 am
Great stuff, Ken. It's a delicate dance, juggling chainsaws.
The Packers just cleared some difficult steps with how they (mis?)managed their cap to keep old favorites together despite their growing ineffectiveness with the AR, Bak, Cobb, Savage eras ending in GB. The dead monies tossed around??? whoosh. My hope is they learned some valuable lessons in this new salary cap era. They have to remember to sell high when looking to move on from proven talents on the precipice of decline.
Shrewd, timely trades along with solid draft scouting & choices will win the day to further extend success past that 4 year window.
I think if any team in this NFL had great learning opportunities about how and when to change personnel out to further extend shots at winning it all and the continued positive growth of their team, it is the Packers. They learned what not to do while having their asses saved by a glutinous Jets owner.
TK brought up a great point in this team staying healthy and avoiding injuries. One positive takeaway was seeing Matt LaFleur learn such and hiring Aaron Hill as our new Strength & Conditioning Coordinator. There's a lot to like with that.
Many great, proven & promising players have been assembled and secured to this Packers roster. They all have their own windows for optimal production, and Gutekunst & Co. must make the most of what they've learned, hopefully learned, to give Green Bay its best shots to expand their Lombardi Trophy collection.
On a side note, we went from one HOF SB winning QB who had some challenging screws loose, to another with a different challenging set of screws loose to Jordan Love. The man walked into 1265 with near equal, if not better starting QB acumen, while possessing a beyond-his-years level of maturity, leadership qualities & ethos. Love has his own window. Thankfully, those backup QBs Gutekunst will continue adding throughout that window will have, if all goes well, a far superior & supercharged mentor to continue this projected trend of success at the position. I dig that immensely.
Since'61
July 29, 2024 at 08:07 am
While I still believe 2025 will be the season when it all comes together for the Packers I believe that during this season we will see the Packers evolve towards a dominant team in the league.
Three key factors which I will be looking for in 2024 are; consistent solid play from the OL especially against the stronger DLs in the league. Secondly, better DL play against the run and better tackling by the defense overall. Third and maybe most important better situational football in terms of both coaching decisions and player performance particularly during the playoffs. The Packers must get their place kicking situation straightened out.
All of the above is dependent on maintaining a relatively healthy team throughout the season.
The window is definitely open it's time to enjoy the journey. Thanks, Since '61
TKWorldWide
July 29, 2024 at 08:45 am
Great minds, 61? 😉🏈
Rebelgb
July 31, 2024 at 11:27 am
Great post. I wouldnt change a thing, couldnt have said it better!
Handsback
July 29, 2024 at 08:11 am
This year and next could be deep playoff runs. Most of that happening depends on the QB and the defense. After last season, most everyone believes Love is it. The defense ...we think, but not know yet, but think it's ready to go. The talent is there, and if the new coaching staff is as good as we are hearing, then bring that Lombardi trophy home.
jvole
July 29, 2024 at 08:13 am
What Hafley delivers will determine the upside. Everything else is in a great place!
T7Steve
July 29, 2024 at 12:21 pm
Except special teams. And really, that can only go up from where it's been (I hope).
jvole
July 30, 2024 at 08:59 am
Good point~
mnbadger
July 29, 2024 at 12:22 pm
Other than last year's Dallas game, I haven't seen an MLF coached playoff team be better prepared than their opponent.
I'm hoping he's humble enough to know he needs to improve his game management, clock management, challenge management, etc.
He tends to react emotionally too often IMO.
Bisaccia has got to step up his work not only with ST's but almost more importantly with MLF.
GPG!
jvole
July 30, 2024 at 09:03 am
Half agree. Before last year, we saw only the Rodgers-Lafleur hybrid end-of-game offense. So who knows? The offense looked pretty good against the 49ers.
Where Lafleur failed was keeping a DC who played his DBs 10 yards off all game until the defense was gassed and the opposing offense shoved it down their throats in the second half. My 2 cents.
mnbadger
August 05, 2024 at 10:38 am
Red zone was weak in SF playoff game, same as it was the last couple years of previous qb1.
Also clock management, ST preparedness, Penalty/turnover reviews.
I feel he has to get better in these critical areas.
GPG!
LLCHESTY
July 29, 2024 at 08:28 am
Carpe diem defense!
LeotisHarris
July 29, 2024 at 08:45 am
We will reach our destination, but it's still a ways away.
TKWorldWide
July 30, 2024 at 07:52 am
Driver 8, take a break.😉
LeotisHarris
July 30, 2024 at 02:14 pm
I knew you'd spot it!
Ferrari-Driver
July 29, 2024 at 08:59 am
Ken Lass, what you are discussing is what gives every pro football fan hope.
The NFL draft allows the weaker teams a chance to pick the "Cream of the Crop" among the college players and while drafting is not an exact science, the more talented players are often picked first.
The salary cap allows the smaller market teams to compete with big market giants like New York and multi-billionaire owners who would buy a championship team if allowed.
Finally, what is the difference maker that has resulted in the smaller town Green Bay Packers to have dominated in World Championship wins? The Packers have an management organization with a CEO that has existed for years that has not "Meddled" in the football operations and has meticulously selected solid coaches and a scouting team that over the years that drafted and developed players that were not selected in the top ten of every draft and created a team that can compete at the highest level.
TarynsEyes
July 29, 2024 at 09:00 am
The window to the Super Bowl is never really closed, it simply depends on the amount of things blocking it from view or access. This team over the last decade, and perhaps more, have been unable to remove some of the objects from the path to the window of success. I'm not 100% sold on this team, but I'm close, and my reason is obvious, a lot of pressure is on this young Offense to remain ahead of those steps taken forward late in the season last year. The Defense is going through another adjustment with another heralded DC. I think this team has its best chance to make it to the window, but I hope any weekly bashing of them is limited, as some losses could be good play losses, but bad play losses will never be excused, as it shows the inability to adapt to the weekly obstructions that need to be handled, with the larger emphasis now on the head of Love. Loves' play in now more susceptible to ridicule without the rookie protections. It will not matter to me, if he takes blame for a loss, what will bother me is how often he needs to say such. Word salad excuses isn't what $55 million a year is paid for.
GOPACKGO
TarynsEyes
July 29, 2024 at 09:03 am
Is there nobody checking this website for issues, enough already.
GregC
July 29, 2024 at 09:58 am
Last night when I tried to log in, my screen showed a list of membership options beginning at $5 per month and would not let me log in. So maybe they are working on some changes.
Bitternotsour
July 29, 2024 at 10:02 am
they need to get a banner up on the home page acknowledging the issue and explaining what they're doing to correct it. They're going to lose eyeballs soon.
HawkPacker
July 29, 2024 at 12:56 pm
As of right now, I believe it is much better than earlier this morning. Hope it keeps up!
Rebelgb
July 31, 2024 at 11:30 am
They said they have fixed it. As of right now (Wed morning) it definitely seems much much better.
NFLfan
July 29, 2024 at 10:45 am
I'm bullish on the team but it's difficult to go full bore when a young team has not had the time to build consistency. Opposing teams will respond very differently this year. Last year this team was not taken seriously which gave them room they won't have this year
I don't know how Jordan will handle this level of pressure and expectation; he is difficult to read.He seems competent but his sample size size is small and this Big Money is not something he has fully earned yet,
Hafley is an unknown and if he doesn't show promise, how long will it take MLF to respond?
And, the kicker situation is unsettled.
So, with those factors in mind, I will be cautiously optimistic.
splitpea1
July 29, 2024 at 11:17 am
The offense is easy to get excited about now that the Love signing is out of the way. But the second-most important thing to keeping that window open is for this defense to finally hit on all cylinders and be playing at a high level throughout the playoffs. So once the new defense takes shape and begins to hit its stride, hopefully sooner rather than later, I will sit back and expect great things....
One minor quibble at the end of the article: The Patriots' window nearly lasted nearly two decades due to shrewd and cooperative decision-making from the organization and the QB, and that qualifies as forever in the NFL.
splitpea1
July 29, 2024 at 11:19 am
The offense is easy to get excited about now that the Love signing is out of the way. But the second-most important thing to keeping that window open is for this defense to finally hit on all cylinders and be playing at a high level throughout the playoffs. So once the new defense takes shape and begins to hit its stride, hopefully sooner rather than later, I will sit back and expect great things....
One minor quibble at the end of the article: The Patriots' window nearly lasted nearly two decades due to shrewd and cooperative decision-making from the organization and the QB, and that qualifies as forever in the NFL. And the Steelers had a pretty long window as well when they found their QB.
splitpea1
July 29, 2024 at 11:22 am
Sorry, due to repeatedly hitting the "submit" button and waiting.
stockholder
July 29, 2024 at 12:39 pm
To many ads. / picture size
davekenya
July 29, 2024 at 12:06 pm
It's probably true that nothing much philosophically will change when Ed Policy takes over from MM as president in 7.25, but it's also something I will keep an eye on...as reporting structure and (personnel) decision making certainly impact FO stability with carry over to the team directly. I've not heard much about what EP thinks (yet); perhaps he'll just introduce himself and what he sees for the organization closer to next summer. Besides, he'll be plenty busy with draft weekend prep beforehand!
WD
July 29, 2024 at 02:29 pm
A number of fans including myself felt we overpaid for love but ultimately were glad to have Love under contract! Certainly, if we can win a Superbowl or two; I will gladly be considered a fool for questioning the amount of the deal. I am really looking forward to the season and right now I am really optimistic about the Packers. I still have faith in Gute. and the entire coaching staff. We open up in Brazil against the Eagles. That does sound odd. I do not think this will be an easy game for the Pack despite the Eagles record last year. We are only a little over a month away. Everyone is rightly excited and I think there is going to be a lot of nail-biting games the entire season. I think with a little luck we have a really good chance at the Superbowl!
Packitin
July 29, 2024 at 03:51 pm
We're going to give the Eagles a Brazilian Waxing!