The Lass Word: So You're Saying There's a Chance?
Pack shocked Cowboys. Could Dolphins be next?
By KenLass
I give the Packers a puncher’s chance to beat the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. It’s not likely, but it’s not impossible. There is much talk about how explosive the Dolphins are on offense, and deservedly so. Certainly it is scary to envision Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle running past Green Bay’s leaky secondary. If they played 15 yards off against the practice squad receivers the Rams put on the field Monday night, how far back will our corners line up against these guys?
And there’s more than just the pass game to be concerned about. The running back is Raheem Mostert. Remember him? You should. He’s the guy that personally trashed the Packers defense in the 2019 NFC championship game. He ran for 220 yards and four touchdowns in a 37-20 San Francisco rout. Mostert was so dominant, Niners quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo only had to attempt eight passes in the game, and completed only six. This year with the Fish, Mostert is having another good season, averaging just under five yards per carry.
Then there is quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He has flourished throwing the ball to those dynamic receivers, and has answered most of the questions the franchise had about him prior to this season. Miami will be playing at home, and will be highly motivated, as they find themselves in the middle of the playoff hunt.
So yes, a Green Bay upset is unlikely, but I wouldn’t call it miraculous. Anything can happen. In fact, when you look a little deeper at the stats, it’s not as much of a stretch as it first appears.
While everybody raves about the Dolphins offense, nobody seems to pay much attention to the defense. It’s not very good. In fact, as bad as the Packers have played on defense this season, they still rank ahead of Sunday’s opponent in several interesting categories. In terms of total yards, Green Bay’s defense currently stands 15th in the league, surrendering 334 yards per game. Miami’s defense is ranked 23rd, giving up 357.6 per contest. The Dolphins rank tenth against the rush, while the Packers are 29th. However, Miami is no better than 27th against the pass, while Green Bay is second. The Packers lofty ranking against the pass is a bit misleading, as opponents haven’t had to throw the ball against them very much, because they can run the ball so effectively.
But here’s the most important stat. Points allowed per game. The Packers are fifteenth, yielding just over 22 points per game. The Dolphins are 27th, giving up just under 25.
Statistics don’t always tell an accurate story. Certainly they can deceive. I’m not taking any false hope out of these comparisons, but they do indicate that there are plays to be made against this Miami team. Green Bay’s offense is getting better every week. Aaron Rodgers is finding a bit of a groove with his young tandem of Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb are still around for those third down conversions. The young offensive line is jelling, particularly in the run game. I believe the Packers can put some points on the board in this game. And if they can execute some long drives, play a little keep away, get a few turnovers, who knows?
Few seem to be giving Green Bay any credit for beating the Bears and the Rams. Okay, those are banged up, struggling teams. And the foolish stuff is still there, terrible penalties, wrong routes, inaccurate passes, questionable strategy. But at least the Pack is starting to make more good plays than bad ones. Starting to gain a little confidence, to execute a bit more consistently. Players are starting to develop. Enagbare, Tom, Yosh, Wyatt, Quay. Kenny Clark woke up. Preston Smith has his moments. Nixon has given them an actual kick return game. Keep in mind, if Matt LaFleur chooses to go ahead and score from the one yard line at the end of Monday’s game, the final tally reads 31-12. Sounds more impressive, doesn’t it?
I am not predicting the Packers will beat the Dolphins. I’m saying there’s a chance. A better chance than they are being given credit for. It’s going to be a more competitive game than you think.
GAME PREDICTION: Dolphins 31 Packers 27
STAR OF THE GAME: Allen Lazard
UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK: Commanders over 49ers
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
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Comments (22)
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
December 22, 2022 at 03:33 pm
Yes, could there be an upset? Certainly, however I still do not see the Packers making the playoffs and should they miraculously make the playoffs they will quickly be bumped from it.
I simply keep thinking week after week how Jordan Love and some of the younger players would benefit from playing. How about Love playing against Chicago's defense, the Ram's defense, and now Miami's defense. You could not have lined up three better defenses in a row for Jordan Love to have started playing against to give him an opportunity to get his feet under him as a starting QB & develop confidence. This is a lost opportunity!
While some might not agree I am not sure the Packers would have conceded and lost anything with Jordan Love playing vs Rodgers. There are pro and cons with both. Jordan looked extremely decisive at Philly with a strong arm and he can run and is willing to run when the pocket breaks down. Defenses know a strong pass rush and Rodgers cannot escape and he doesn't typically run anymore. There are definitely trade offs!
1962Packer
December 22, 2022 at 06:10 pm
I think I saw a different Phili game than you. I saw a Phili team with a decisive lead, play soft, allowing the short and middle throws; and applying no rush; so a young QB could stand there all day waiting for someone to come free. (Actually, it seemed like Joe Barry took over the Phili defense; when Love came in.) Love's great TD seemed to me to be more a wide open Watson's run after catch. I want Love to succeed; but can't get carried away by the Phili game.
Packerpasty
December 22, 2022 at 07:23 pm
thats also what I saw...people sure think he's a quality starting QB from a very limited resume...I have never seen anything yet that shows me he will be anything more than a middle of the road starter and NFL journeyman. It would be great if Im wrong but I bet I'm not...
Coldworld
December 23, 2022 at 10:05 am
As usual the knee jerk “Rodgers is perfect” types “see” the negative in anything pertaining to Love. The throw to Watson was perfectly timed. That’s all a QB can do. Make the read and catch the guy in stride.
The D he played in actually wasn’t that soft. On rewatching it really didn’t change from that preceding his insertion. That said, it was a tiny sample and I agree it’s too early to anoint. That’s why we need to see more, across all phases of a game and against more than one D.
Love was impressive, it was not a gimme D and it also was not enough to prove him a starter. It was enough to earn him more time in a rational world if we have the opportunity. Fitting the world to what you want the narrative to be is pointless.
Open eyes or make decisions like Murphy and stay with the one dimensional narrative (typically predestined to be misleading).
croatpackfan
December 22, 2022 at 03:41 pm
Well, Texans almost surprised Chiefs - they lost in overtime. So, yes, anything can happen. Will it? That is another story...
Johnblood27
December 22, 2022 at 05:56 pm
please croat, do not EVER compare the Packers to the Texans again... EVER!!!
croatpackfan
December 23, 2022 at 01:23 am
I wasn't comparing Packers to Texans. I just wanted to say that if even Texans can do that, it should be possible for Packers to upset Dolphins (as higher possibility!).
TarynsEyes
December 22, 2022 at 03:46 pm
I see the Packers offering another peek into what the youth of the future holds, unfortunately, the wins that matter will have to wait until next season.
These last three games are akin to being down three scores, 40 seconds to go, and you're calling time-outs thinking one more play will make a difference.
I'll be watching the game and hoping that another gift (draft selection) isn't being taken away. I want the one that can/will be received, and not the one that isn't getting wrapped with a bow.
Leatherhead
December 22, 2022 at 04:40 pm
Since the Dolphin defense is even worse than the Packers historically bad defense (sheeeesh), then Rodgers shouldn't have any trouble putting 40 on the board, right? Just like he did against the worst defense in the league, Detroit.
PackyCheese500
December 22, 2022 at 05:05 pm
Just putting it out there; Ken's upset special of the week would eliminate the Packers from the playoffs. I'm not saying that is good or bad, just taking note.
I think it will be a close, high-scoring game against Miami, but even if our offense does well, I cannot see our defense holding up. Kind of like the Eagles game.
Rarescope
December 22, 2022 at 05:36 pm
I noticed that too. Maybe he has such a bad track record of upset predictions he's putting some preventive mojo out into the multiverse.
stockholder
December 22, 2022 at 05:18 pm
The future of veterans , friends, Free Agents, and Rodgers, depends on this game.
If LeFluer wants any of these guys back. This must be the best coached game of his career.
There are No excuses now. There is No tomorrow. The Win only option; will be the best way tackle Cap Hell.
LeotisHarris
December 22, 2022 at 06:11 pm
Mankind.
That Word should Have new Meaning for all of us Christmas day.
We can't be Consumed by our Petty differences Anymore.
We will be United in our Common Interests. Perhaps it's Fate that Christmas Day, you will once Again be fighting for our freedom … Not from tyranny, Oppression, or Persecution
… but from Annihilation.
We are fighting for our Right to Live.
To Exist.
And should we Win the day; Christmas will no longer Be known as an American Holiday, but As the Day the World declared in one Voice:
We will Not go quietly into the night!
We will not Vanish without a fight!
We're going to Live on!
We're Going to survive!
To celebrate our Christmas Day Victory over The Dolphins!
Starrbrite
December 23, 2022 at 03:54 am
Excellent—
Rarescope
December 22, 2022 at 05:35 pm
I see the usual suspects preaching doom and gloom up there. Are we having fun yet? Packers on Christmas day, come on! If I get to see one more of those cute little smiley helmet to helmet shoulder hugs from Rodgers to Watson like at the end of the Rams game it's going to be a great day :D
Packerpasty
December 22, 2022 at 07:24 pm
oh your not supposed to mention stuff like that, these people only see eye-rolls and snarls...
pantz_bURp
December 22, 2022 at 05:41 pm
Well, we will definitely 100% be playing with a porpoise. I mean a purpose, sorry....
I believe this game will have one Mason Crosby surpass Favre for the Packer all-time consecutive game streak. Congrats to Crosby. Not taking anything away from Favre and his impressive streak playing QB though.
Johnblood27
December 22, 2022 at 06:09 pm
boy oh boy, I sure wish we had those stinkin fish in Lambeau this weekend!
wait until we get the queenies and LOLions out in the elements!!!
Packerpasty
December 22, 2022 at 07:25 pm
humbug on this game, the Packers have their two Super Bowls coming up after this one...
canadapacker
December 22, 2022 at 09:45 pm
Of course most of me wants the Pack to blow out the Dolphins - but a part of me wants the Pack to lose and be out of the playoffs, I want to see Love play the last 2 games. I want to see what he has. I am watching Lawrence against Wilson ( Wilson was a number 2) Talk about not knowing until you know. Most definitely we need to see him play some NFL games - not preseason - not mopup - And I am hoping that the Lions are still in it - I am hoping that the Vikes are still playing for something -
Have a merry Xmas everyone
Heyward
December 23, 2022 at 02:38 pm
I doubt you'll see Love even if the Packers lose on Sunday. Do you think Rodgers will want to sit, and who's going to make him?
GregC
December 23, 2022 at 06:14 am
Even if the Packers lose, they won't be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs this weekend unless the Commanders beat the 49ers, which doesn't seem likely. So I'm guessing that we won't see Jordan Love start for any more than one game this season. Too bad. In the meantime, I'll be cheering for the Packers to beat the Dolphins. I think it will be a close game. Maybe I'm biased because the last time I saw the Dolphins play, it was against the Chargers, and the Dolphins' offense was terrible in that game.