The Lass Word: Is Rodgers' Trade Value Over Estimated?
The market for QB12 may not be what you think.
By KenLass
Now that the numbness has worn off a bit, some thoughts about the future:
► I wrote this at the beginning of the season and I believe it’s even more true now. Aaron Rodgers’ trade value is being vastly over estimated. This motherlode of first round picks, extra picks and players the Packers will supposedly get for Rodgers may be unrealistic. If Rodgers chooses not to return, other teams will low ball Green Bay, knowing the team has no choice but to accept a trade from somebody.
What the Packers can demand for their future Hall of Famer may have declined even further after he stated he does not want to be part of a rebuild. If that’s true, that rules out the bad teams who would have the multiple first rounders in the coming draft to offer. At least four teams have more than one selection in the first round of this year’s draft. The Jets, Lions and Giants each have two, and the Eagles have three. The Lions are in Green Bay’s division, so that’s a non-starter. The Jets and Giants are most certainly in a rebuild, so that would rule them out. The Eagles are not a likely trade partner for Green Bay because they are in the NFC, and especially because they are on the Packers schedule next season. Green Bay will play the Eagles in Philadelphia.
In effect, Rodgers has veto power over any pending trade. That’s because any team trading for him would have to renegotiate his $46 million cap hit due next year. He can simply refuse to renegotiate with any team he doesn’t want to play for, thereby stopping any trade. Rodgers will only accept a trade to a contender. Contenders will not have multiple first round picks to offer, unless they trade away selections in future years. Would a top team really want to mortgage its future years in advance for a quarterback who will be 39 years old next fall, and stunk in the most recent playoffs?
The Denver Broncos, who are hiring Green Bay offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett as their head coach, may offer a more realistic example of what the Packers could expect. The Broncos own the ninth pick in the first round of the coming draft. They also have two picks in the second round, and two more in the third. I could see them offering the first rounder and both of the second rounders, plus a player or two, for Rodgers. Anything more than that is probably wishful thinking. I will be ecstatic if Green Bay winds up with multiple first round selections, but I’m not expecting it.
► The fact that Matt LaFleur, Brian Gutekunst and Russ Ball are going to do everything they can to bring Rodgers back tells you everything you need to know about Jordan Love. The first round pick in 2020 really hasn’t shown much to get excited about in his very limited opportunities. They see him in practice every day. They obviously feel he’s not ready.
I actually think Love can develop into an adequate NFL starter, but it’s going to take a lot of time, and likely a lot of losing. He’s not a natural phenom like Mahomes or Burrow. He’s a project. It’s going to take a full season or two of starting, seeing defenses, making mistakes and learning from them. Gutey and LaFleur have to be concerned that their jobs may not survive a couple of four or five win seasons. So I’m not surprised they appear ready to commit to Rodgers for multiple years. Bringing him back is job security.
► Wideouts not named Davante Adams contributed next to nothing in the playoffs against the 49ers. Whether Adams decides to stay or not, there is once again going to be a drumbeat for the Packers to draft a receiver in the first round. There are no instant stars like Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase in this year’s crop. But there is some exciting talent. Ohio State’s tandem of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave are outstanding. Both of Alabama’s blue chippers, John Metchie and Jameson Williams, will be coming off injuries and may well be there late in the first round. Southern Cal’s Drake London is high on the list of many draft gurus.
My personal crush is Purdue’s David Bell. He’s versatile, physical, acrobatic and catches everything. Not really a first rounder, but he’d be a steal in the second or third round.
► Last weekend’s playoff games were a stark example of the difference between great quarterbacks in their prime, and great quarterbacks past their prime. Great QB’s in their prime play their best football in the clutch when the game is on the line. Witness how Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen put their teams on their backs and executed one clutch drive after another. Matthew Stafford saved his best throw of the game for the final minute when the Rams had to have it.
Compare that to the way Aaron Rodgers fizzled late against the Niners when the Packers absolutely had to have a few big throws. Remember the 2011 Super Bowl? Rodgers, then in his prime, skewered the Steelers with clutch pinpoint passes to lead his team to the Lombardi trophy.
► Here’s one thing that should be encouraging to Green Bay fans. The 49ers are living proof that you don’t have to have a Hall of Fame quarterback to win in the playoffs. Jimmy Garoppolo had a QB rating of 57.1 against the Packers. He had no touchdowns, one interception, and should have had another couple picked off. He was playing hurt, but even when healthy he can hardly be regarded as more than mediocre. Yet the Niners won with tough defense and a strong running game. The Packers definitely have the elements to transition to being that sort of team if Aaron Rodgers departs.
The Titans ascended to the number one seed in the AFC with Ryan Tannehill under center. The Eagles got to the post season with Jalen Hurts, the Steelers with a washed up Ben Roethlisberger. There is ample reason for hope.
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
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Comments (194)
stockholder
January 27, 2022 at 03:13 pm
Really a good read until you picked the Wrs. Bell is a bust. Burks is the only guy for me in rd.1. The better guys are in 2-3. More to come.
HawkPacker
January 28, 2022 at 11:44 am
I have seen Bell and he is not a bust. Excellent WR.
jannesbjornson
January 28, 2022 at 01:15 pm
Drake London as a low One pick/high Two Pick
TXCHEESE
January 27, 2022 at 03:26 pm
Sorry, but the comment about Stafford is laughable. That was nothing more than a total screw up by the TB defense...let the best receiver on the other team run right past your safety. If Stafford didn't hit that throw, would it really have shocked anyone?
Agree with most of your other thoughts, but I do think a couple of AFC teams...Denver and Miami would be legitimate trade partners for Rodgers. The HC and FO guys are going to publicly tell all, Aaron is their guy to maintain leverage...why would you make it obvious you're ready to move on?
The reason the other wideouts didn't do anything against SF, was because Aaron Freaking Rodgers didn't throw them the ball!
Pilprin
January 27, 2022 at 03:27 pm
The #9, and 2 - seconds this year plus Jeudy and a player...I could live with that. Would like a 2 or 3 next year if possible, but I could live with 3 premium picks an Jeudy....I actually like Lock as a prospect, but not sure if that makes sense. would be nice to get a rotational DL in the deal.
NickPerry
January 28, 2022 at 06:06 am
You had me until Lock. Love is better than Lock...ALREADY.
No offense friend, I'm thinking just Ken why give up all that capital?
BUT...If there's 2 or 3 possible teams like a Denver, maybe Miami or Indy? Hell even Pittsburgh or Vegas are possible.
Personally I think Rodgers on Indy makes a TON of sense. Good young defense, A top 2 RB and O-Line depending who you ask. Michael Pittman is a beast and they have some other decent receivers but could sign another because they have a TON of cap space.
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 07:43 am
I think we've just seen more of Lock than we have of Love. I would contend that we still really don't know what we have in Love...and IF he turns out to be the 2022 starter, we won't know until about 6-8 games into the schedule what he really is. He would likely benefit strongly from the intensive QB camps the Packers would put on prior to what the CBA eliminated about 15 years ago.
We shouldn't kid ourselves. All the parties involved here already know exactly what they want to do. ARod does. The Packers do....even with Adams. Hell, they all probably knew all the way back when talks with Adams went south. I don't believe for a second that the major players here are just waffling around. There's just no reason to say much or do anything until the shit starts hitting the fan at the opening of the tagging period.
Ken, I believe you may be right: especially if 12 decides he has only one destination in mind. It severely limits what the Packers can do in terms of compensation. But if there's legit bidding and if ARod will legitimately consider a variety of destinations (remember his foreplay with Tomlin during the Steelers game?), then I think the asking price starts at Stafford and adjusts--could be higher, could be lower-- from there.
Coldworld
January 28, 2022 at 08:41 am
The NFL and the players (QBs) would really benefit from carving out an exception for QB schools. They were technical not physical and helped many succeed, improving play overall around the league.
Thegreatreynoldo
January 28, 2022 at 05:58 pm
I suspect but do not know whether winning a super bowl wouldn't have changed the calculations of AR and the FO. That didn't happen, so we will never know.
Otherwise, the only issue is as you say: will AR extend for multiple different teams so as to stoke a bidding war? Absent a bidding war, I don't think GB will get the motherlode for AR. Probably 2 firsts and a second? If they get more, that's a bonus.
greengold
January 28, 2022 at 09:20 pm
I think you’re very close to what GB will realize in trade. Maybe an R1, player & another Day 2 pick. Also agree the calculations changed after the flameout. Should be interesting to see what happens.
Turophile
January 27, 2022 at 03:43 pm
Ken Lass quote:
"The fact that Matt LaFleur, Brian Gutekunst and Russ Ball are going to do everything they can to bring Rodgers back tells you everything you need to know about Jordan Love. The first round pick in 2020 really hasn’t shown much to get excited about in his very limited opportunities. They see him in practice every day. They obviously feel he’s not ready. "
La Fleur has said they want Rodgers back, but what did you expect him to say ? "We're looking to sell him off to anyone who wants him ?" Get real. The statement about Rodgers is about keeping your options open, it says nothing at all about Love, nothing about him "obviously being not ready".
saltandpeppers
January 27, 2022 at 04:54 pm
Yeah, I think people might be reading a little too much into LaFleur's comments. They may want him back, but I seriously doubt they will do "everything they can." Didn't Cobb just make a goodbye post? So he's not coming back, which Rodgers would obviously want.
canadapacker
January 27, 2022 at 04:59 pm
Last year was Cobb's last hurrah - and AR knows that as well as Cobb knows that. A few steps too slow, didnt get open unless there was a defensive snafu and that was a tough injury that he got. He got one last year and will retire a Packer and that was good for him and the team.
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 07:45 am
"He got one last year and will retire a Packer and that was good for him and the team."
Was it really good for the team? I don't think so.
Coldworld
January 28, 2022 at 08:48 am
Cobb can still play but he can’t stay healthy. In the end he helped a little but not very much and not in the playoffs. That money would have been better rolled over or spent elsewhere in retrospect. Without him, perhaps EQ, Taylor or Winfree gets enough targets to break out or perhaps we pick up a Moore type earlier and involve him more. I don’t think AmRod would have been ready regardless. Overall, Cobb flashed, but probably was not a move that made much sense as things turned out.
Ferrari-Driver
January 27, 2022 at 03:47 pm
Ken, I think you are overlooking a factor that other General Managers and Head Coaches are concerned about keeping their jobs. They will be interested in Rodgers who will undoubtedly win games for most any team looking to upgrade the quarterback position significantly.
Look back to when the Packers had Dan Devine as a head coach who was in a position that he felt his job was in jeopardy and traded for the Chargers John Hadl who had been a top quarterback, but was past his prime and at the time of the trade was on the second string. To acquire Hadl Devine traded five draft picks—first and second round picks for 1975 and 1976, as well as a third round pick in 1975.
Now I'm not saying we will find another Dan Devine out there, but he is the prime example I am using to make the point. In dire situations, there are General Managers and Head Coaches who will go to extremes to help secure their jobs. There will be competition to sign Rodgers and what they will give up to get him is yet to be determined.
barutanseijin
January 27, 2022 at 05:51 pm
Devine was reviled as a colossal moron, too. Is there another Dan Devine out there? Can’t say for sure, but it seems unlikely.
Bitternotsour
January 27, 2022 at 09:47 pm
well. there's always the vikings. they're colossal morons. 70 years. No championships.
but i digress. the raiders are owned/run by a moron. the giants? jerry jones is arguably a moron.
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 08:30 am
The Vikings won the NFL Championship in 1969, so yes, they have one championship.
stockholder
January 28, 2022 at 08:37 am
And the trophy is in Green Bay.
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 10:59 am
Actually, the Vikings own the 1969 NFL trophy, but the Super Bowl trophy for that year is in KC. Not sure why you would think it's in Green Bay, since we didn't make the playoffs that year.
Ferrari-Driver
January 28, 2022 at 10:00 am
The Vikings again are "infamous" for giving away the farm to acquire Hershel Walker in 1989 who they believed was the missing link to winning the Super Bowl. They had come close the two previous years. The trade helped propel the Cowboys who were the worst team in the league that year to three Super Bowls.
This is what the Vikings gave up as copied from the internet:
Minnesota's 1st round pick in 1990
Minnesota's 2nd round pick in 1990
Minnesota's 6th round pick in 1990
Minnesota's 1st round pick in 1991 (conditional on cutting Solomon)
Minnesota's 2nd round pick in 1991 (conditional on cutting Howard)
Minnesota's 1st round pick in 1992 (conditional on cutting Holt)
Minnesota's 2nd round pick in 1992 (condition met by trading away Nelson)
Minnesota's 3rd round pick in 1992 (conditional on cutting Stewart)
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 11:01 am
That's got to be the worst trade in league history.
BirdDogUni
January 28, 2022 at 02:21 pm
You forget John Hadl?
https://www.sportscasting.com/the-1974-john-hadl-trade-set-the-green-bay...
Ferrari-Driver
January 29, 2022 at 02:53 pm
When I was researching both of those trades, the consensus among the sites I used was that the Packers trade for Hadl set them back for years and that made it hard for my favorite Packer, Bart Starr, to succeed.
Similar words were used when they discussed the Herschel Walker trade. It took years for the Vikings to recover while the Cowboys used those premium picks to build a three time Super Bowl team.
If Rodgers does in fact leave the Packers, I'm hoping similar words will be written about them and the acquiring team in years to come.
greengold
January 28, 2022 at 09:25 pm
Fond memories there…. The Vikings… ha. Wow. Blockbuster.
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 08:29 am
Bil O'Brien is not a head coach, anymore, unfortunately.
Johnblood27
January 28, 2022 at 10:02 am
Bill OBrien is gone...
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 07:46 am
The Ryan Pace factor is a real thing, yes.
Not to mention a borderline playoff team where an owner is trying to generate buzz, ticket and merchandise revenue out of a lethargic fan base.
murf7777
January 28, 2022 at 08:08 am
I agree and all you need is two teams who want to bid on him to get the price higher. I’m not expecting 3 first round picks, but 2 and other lower draft picks is a reasonable expectation and 3 is possible. Ken has to remember he will probably be the last two MVP’s in the NFL and GM’s know Brady and Manning recently have won SB’s after the age of 38.
The only thing that concerns me about getting that many draft picks is Rodgers talking about Retirement.
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 08:32 am
He's talking retirement to control whom he goes to, IMO. If the Packers want to ship him to NYG, he'll retire for at least a year; if they want to send him to Denver (and Denver is willing to give him guaranteed money), he won't.
croatpackfan
January 28, 2022 at 09:41 am
If he retires, Packers hold his contract still open if he change his mind and he can come back only to Packers. read the rules first...
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 11:05 am
I know the rules, Croat, and I'm not expecting him to actually retire. He's using the threat to control his destiny in the sense that "I'll retire if you don't trade me to someplace I want to play." His retirement threats are just words with no actual meaning in the real world, as he knows that GB won't try to trade him to the Jets or Jaguars, for example.
Should AR actually retire and then want to come back, GB could trade his rights to a different team. I don't expect this to happen.
ricky
January 27, 2022 at 04:07 pm
Good article, but I still think you're overpaying for Rodgers if you give up more than a first and a couple of relatively early draft picks. He’s going to be 39, is already flirting with retirement, and will only throw to one receiver when the going gets tough. In short, he is Favre without all the interceptions. And remember, the Packers ended up with one third round pick for Brett. But if anyone wants to keep dreaming of a harvest of picks and players, fine. Not going to happen.
jannesbjornson
January 27, 2022 at 07:44 pm
Give this man a medal.
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 08:33 am
I agree. I said yesterday we may be lucky to escape AR's contract with a 5th rounder and Lock (not that I particularly WANT Lock, but he's at least a vet backup for Love if we need one).
I'd be ecstatic if we got anything more than that.
greengold
January 28, 2022 at 09:38 pm
I tend to agree. Last year was the year. Now, a lot of leverage seems lost. Another team jumping in would change that tho. For sure. It wouldn’t surprise me. Nothing can surprise me or anyone else now…
R1. Top player, Day 2 pick seems possible. More would pleasantly surprise me.
BruceC1960
January 27, 2022 at 04:10 pm
Gotta think Titans and Colts will show interest in AR too. The key is to have at least 2 interested to raise the price.
Hematite
January 27, 2022 at 04:13 pm
I definitely think that a lot of people are overestimating what the Packers will get in a Rodgers trade.
Any GM or scout that saw Rodgers performance against the 9ers would more than likely have second thoughts about breaking the bank for him at this point in his career.
White92
January 27, 2022 at 07:33 pm
Do you really think one game changes everyone's mind after the season he had?
SanLobo
January 27, 2022 at 07:50 pm
This exactly. They are going to look at Rodgers play when the temp is over 20 degrees and when it is below and see the difference. Games played at 10 and below are just brutal affairs for the skill players. Denver is ‘warmer’ than Green Bay, but Rodgers best bet is a dome or warm weather team.
jannesbjornson
January 28, 2022 at 01:25 pm
It was pretty warm in Santa Clara when he didn't show in the NFC CH game played in2019. They get big bucks to Win the Big Game.
SanLobo
January 28, 2022 at 02:28 pm
The game where the offense barely got on the field because we couldn’t stop the run. Need to look at the team and not just one player. Win/loss is a team stat.
egbertsouse
January 28, 2022 at 07:47 am
Yup. This is the NFL. Remember Matt Flynn? One game and Seattle threw money at him.
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 08:20 am
Matthew Stafford played for 12-13 years and never won a playoff game...I think he only played in 3. Clearly that didn't bother GMs. What do GMs see? A guy who can chuck it. In the end, if he gets the Rams over the hump--especially after Brady's season last year (and this year)--teams will look even more favorably on the rent-a-QB.
I don't see a lot of GMs with a good supporting cast being frightened away by the postseason performances. They might be more concerned about having to add an extra desk in their offices.
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 08:35 am
"They might be more concerned about having to add an extra desk in their offices."
Thumb's up for making me laugh!
Jafma
January 27, 2022 at 04:30 pm
Excellent observations except for one thing. The public comments of LeFleuer, Gutekunst, etc., mean nothing. They HAVE to say that or Rodgers' trade value goes down even more.
Also, they're not going to win four or five games playing in the sorry NFC North, even with you at QB.
calabasa
January 27, 2022 at 11:01 pm
Yeah c’mon CHTV guys and gals, this is GM strategy 101. Don’t read into any utterance they make- they all know what is going to happen already. If they LOVE Love, they say the same thing in order to get max value for AR12. As well as maintain whatever legacy he has left in GB. He’ll be in the HOF, ring of honor… no way they would ever say less than “we want him back.”
I’d love to play a round of poker with you guys 🤑
Packers0808
January 27, 2022 at 04:25 pm
As shown in this last game Rodgers got old, is overrated at this point, and not worth what so many think he is!
Coldworld
January 29, 2022 at 08:53 am
As long as someone thinks he is an MVP, that’s all that matters. Even better if two share that view. Whether they are deluded or prescient is irrelevant.
BirdDogUni
January 30, 2022 at 01:09 pm
I just keep thinking Denver and the Colts will be interested for sure, and I expect at least one surprise team will be in the mix but eventually lose out to the Broncos or Colts...
In fact, I'm not saying there is collusion or anything, but with Hackett going to Denver, I would find it hard to believe that Hackett hasn't had hypothetical conversations with Gutey about the possibilities of AR/DA to Denver...
Nothing would surprise me, except maybe AR retiring or coming back to play in GB... ; P
HarryHodag
January 27, 2022 at 04:34 pm
One aspect of the story that all the gnarly fans and reporters don't talk about is Rodgers relationship with Shailene Woodley. Balderdash, you say. What does that have to do with anything?
Here's a tidbit: Woodley owns a home nearby Denver. She is, after all, his 'fiance'. Rodgers well might be lured to live near Denver to see her more often. He would be going to Denver to reunite with Hackett. This is not a rebuild in Denver. They have a good, possibly very good, defense. They have three very good WR's. I suspect D. Adams might be interested in going there, especially if one of the wideouts come to Green Bay in the trade.
I would be shocked if Rodgers stays, less shocked if he was traded to Denver.
White92
January 27, 2022 at 07:35 pm
The Inquirer is saying they've already split. Just saying 😜
x24
January 28, 2022 at 08:11 am
They were destined to fail as a couple- her last name is not "Adams"
croatpackfan
January 28, 2022 at 09:45 am
Neither her first name is Davante...
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 08:40 am
A story from 12/20/21 says they have a "non-traditional" relationship:
https://pagesix.com/2021/12/20/aaron-rodgers-shailene-woodley-have-non-t...
It's interesting that she didn't wish AR a happy birthday on 12/2, though.
Coldworld
January 27, 2022 at 04:51 pm
I think your expectations are pretty reasonable. The secret, as with everything, is whether there is competition from another team that Rodgers would consider. Who knows. There could yet be.
TheKanataThrilla
January 28, 2022 at 06:20 am
I really think that Cleveland could be a dark horse in this race. They have a great OL, quite a bit of talent on D, a great RB. If they could sign Davante they would have a pretty good O. And last but not least they have Rodgers' old friend Alex Van Pelt running the offense.
We would likely have to take on Baker Mayfield's contract, but I believe that he is only signed for the one more year which gives us time to see if Matt can turn his career around or we cut him loose.
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 08:28 am
At this point, Baker Mayfield is on his 5th year option and the Browns are on the hook for the full value of the coming year. If he's on the Browns' roster at the start of the new league year, he's free to the Packers. Either way, that's a point of negotiation.
Thegreatreynoldo
January 28, 2022 at 06:12 pm
"If he's on the Browns' roster at the start of the new league year, he's free to the Packers."
Huh?
How much Cleveland would retain might well be a point of negotiation. But base salary even if guaranteed can be traded to the acquiring team.
BirdDogUni
January 28, 2022 at 10:59 pm
I'd rather have Jordan Love than Baker... Just saying... Jordan is bigger, faster, with a better arm and MaLF can mold him into exactly what he wants. Baker already has more bad habits than MaLF could fix IMO...
dobber
January 29, 2022 at 02:25 pm
The lack of the intensive QB camps from 2007 and before mean that it's much harder to correct those bad habits.
canadapacker
January 27, 2022 at 05:02 pm
Denver is in no position to really make a great offer and the Pack will not settle for an average offer. And think that people are over rating the AR/Boulder home connection. She is an actress and is working in LA. Did she even visit Green Bay???? Just look what the Lions had to do - ate Goff's 25 Mill contract and gave up "a 2021 third-round pick and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023." Those wont be high picks because the Rams are still in the playoffs. Lock is not any sort of answer and they wont give up Jeudy Fant Hamler as AR would want them even if Adams becomes a Bronco. So with the lack of talent on the 7- 10 team now that Miller is gone - what other things does Denver offer. Green Bay can do what Pittsburgh did to get around Ben's big contract and renegotiate other contracts and basically keep other pieces around. If AR is gone they are going to find somebody with some talent Foulds/Cousins?/JimmyG etc to make sure that this 13-3 team doesnt end up in last place because under either Love or Lock that is where they will be. The question is does AR want to be with Lafleur ( whomever the new OC is ) or in Denver. That is what needs to be decided - I say GB
Coldworld
January 27, 2022 at 06:45 pm
The Packers aren’t in a great position. If Rodgers stays we get nothing. If Rodgers doesn’t want to stay we get nothing if he wants to move and we won’t trade him. If we decide to move on or he decides we have to, I’m not sure our threshold is that high. Then it depends on a bidding war developing that Rodgers doesn’t squash by suggesting he’d retire if he was traded to that team.
Absent a fight between teams Rodgers would countenance, we may have to take the best deal we can get or play hardball and make him sit and move in a year as a FA (since I think Rodgers would be nothing but trouble if prevented from moving to a team he wants). Something is better than nothing and that may yet be the choice.
TheKanataThrilla
January 28, 2022 at 06:25 am
Denver has to compete with Mahomes, Herbert and Carr in their Division. They are not even close to Carr level of QB play. If Denver ever hopes to be relevant anytime soon they need a guaranteed quality QB. They can draft QBs to the cows come home, but Rodgers is a known commodity with a new chip on his shoulder to motivate him. I think Denver might be willing to give up quite a number of chances (draft picks) at a QB for a sure bet at this point.
greengold
January 28, 2022 at 09:53 pm
What makes you say they’re in no position? They are likely in the best position. A ton of trade assets, and a lot of cap space to work with (over $40M). Plus, it’s a business, and their fans have been pining to compete in the division.
Hackett going there as HC tells you all you need to know. DEN is the favorite as things stand.
BirdDogUni
January 28, 2022 at 11:05 pm
While I totally agree Broncos look to be the leader in the Club House, I wouldn't ignore the Colts... They have almost as good of a situation as Denver. I do think Colts could force the Broncos to over-spend for AR, which is what I'm hoping for...
splitpea1
January 27, 2022 at 05:50 pm
Broncos: Having lost their last 13 to rival KC, they could be itchy to acquire a QB the caliber of Rodgers--because that's probably the only way they're going to be able to slide back into division contention. That streak has to be eating at them. But still, the draft/player capital you suggested in return is an awful lot. Maybe if a little less capital were spread over two years, maybe....
barutanseijin
January 27, 2022 at 05:59 pm
Rodgers is a notch or two below Mahomes at this point in his career. I don’t see him winning against the Chiefs. Plus, Hackett may want to get far away from a coach killing diva who doesn’t even deliver the Ws.
canadapacker
January 27, 2022 at 06:23 pm
So 39 W's in the last 47 games played ( not counting KC and Detroit ) is not delivering the W's. Blocked field goal and blocked punt for a TD that might otherwise been a W - 13-6 - and yes the O played poorly and he played poorly in freezing conditions. But come on man. You are brutal - maybe a Queens fan blogging on the Packers site??
He has a couple of good years left - and if like Flacco or even Brady last year when the Tampa D chased Mahommes all of the yard - he can win still. Geesh - even some of the losses (2) in the playoffs were because we loss the toss in OT and never touched the ball because of not having a winning D. Geesh - go away
kozmo
January 27, 2022 at 08:11 pm
Yea hes likely to win the MVP and hes done ....rediculous
I think the packers are grooming this team to resemble San Fran....o line, running backs and tight ends... and defense
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 08:43 am
Defense wins championships, Offense wins statistics.
canadapacker
January 28, 2022 at 11:26 am
Exactly and if you look back at AR's career - 2 OT loses when we lost the toss and the D never held. One of those 2 because of a bonehead special teams play and the D not holding when leading late in the game. 2 loses to San Fran when we were ran out of the park - one in Green Bay and 1 in San Fran - the game in Lambeau one guy went off for 220 yards on the ground. Yes Defensive wins games and as we saw Special Teams loses games.
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 08:25 am
The funny part is that so many think he's not that valuable because he's old, unpredictable, and not going to elevate another team's offense and roster, but they still want him to stay in GB--complete with the roster renovations that will have to come with.
Ask yourself why you really want him to stay in GB. (that's more of a general comment...not really aimed at you, Canadapacker)
egbertsouse
January 28, 2022 at 07:52 am
I think that is right. Rodgers goes rogue and abandons the game plan when things get rough. Coaches hate that .
Irish_Cheesehead
January 29, 2022 at 06:42 am
Wherever Rodgers goes,that team will be regular season champs. Their fans will go crazy. They’ll sell a million Rodgers jerseys. Then January will come…
Philarod
January 27, 2022 at 05:56 pm
I think Rodgers's age would (if anything) discourage a potential suitor more than a single subpar playoff performance.
I'm not sure I want to speculate on where he'll be traded, and for whom/what. Denver looks somewhat likely now, but expect twists and turns.
Coldworld
January 27, 2022 at 06:41 pm
3 sub par performances ending 3 consecutive playoff runs might have a dampening effect. I still think that he’d be a reasonable bet on a truly loaded team akin to the Bucs of last year.
Gee
January 28, 2022 at 10:35 am
I agree with your Tampa comment that's the best case. Problem is Tampa didn't have give up anything, but cap space for Brady. Plus Rodgers cap hit, is basically a spice meatball to fit for some teams. I'm with Lass ,I never expected the haul some think he is worth. At this point, if MLF and the F.O really wants to turn the page, they may have to expect less than they wanted.
Coldworld
January 29, 2022 at 08:58 am
Any team trading for Rodgers will likely want him to commit to a reworked contract that better suits their cap. Ultimately, the difference is more that Brady didn’t require the surrender of picks.
jannesbjornson
January 27, 2022 at 07:50 pm
Vegas would be the logical player in any deal for the Mystic.
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 08:44 am
It's certainly much closer to LA and the SF area than any non-Cal team except Arizona, and they're obviously not in the mix.
EnemyTerritory
January 27, 2022 at 06:08 pm
I’m of the opinion that GB will be lucky to get a first in 22 and 23 and maybe a second in one of those years. He is a 39;year old diva QB with WR blinders except for Adams who has divided the fan base by comments on non football topics and he’s holding the team for ransom. Financially the team is in no real position to resign or commit to a longer term for him. The greater trade value may lie in Adams. Take the best deal offered that works for the diva and Adams. Any team interested should be listened to. Even Detroit. All but MN and Chicago, neither of whom are likely in the market…new Fields in Chicago and cap issues in MN. The starting QB here does not necessarily need to be Love. Arizona showed that with draft assets you can fix any error…
Coldworld
January 27, 2022 at 06:42 pm
If I want Rodgers, I’m making a run at Adams first.
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 08:32 am
He seems inordinately interested in what happens to #17.
...or it could be posturing to give himself more to complain about on his way out.
Coldworld
January 28, 2022 at 09:03 am
It could be posturing, but it also could be a window into the mindset that at least arguably makes him a better player without Adams, despite the fact that Adams is one of the best receivers in football.
Ultimately, I think he was honest to the extent that he doesn’t want to play with a lesser roster. I quite see that. At his age, time isn’t on his side to play well and stay healthy through a rebuild of a type a cap strapped team will have to undertake. One can argue with the semantics of what is a rebuild, but to him I think it can possibly be summarized as not having Adams on this roster first and foremost.
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 11:08 am
I think AR is smart enough to not want to play behind a sub-standard or even average OLine, as well.
BirdDogUni
January 28, 2022 at 11:10 pm
That is why I tag and trade DA to Denver for whatever I can... ;)
barutanseijin
January 27, 2022 at 06:11 pm
I predict Rodgers brings a mid round pick. I’d be pleasantly surprised with a second. First is not happening.
It’s also possible that there isn’t a trade market for him at all because the handful of teams interested may decide to wait the Packers out and take their chances on signing him after he’s released. Or, perhaps somewhat more likely, he simply decides to retire. Rodgers thinking about retirement also depresses his trade value.
BirdDogUni
January 28, 2022 at 04:41 pm
This is my 3rd attempt at a reply. (They keep logging me out) SMH
I don't know if you're drunk, a troll, or being serious? Lol... No offense intended, but AR will be the biggest commodity available for trade maybe ever... (Besides Hershel Walker and Ricky Williams...) ; P
Obviously I'm speculating, but I bet at least 8 AFC teams and 6 NFC teams contact Gutey to at least talk about trade compensation.
When it comes right down to it, I expect it to be between the Broncos, Colts, and maybe the Panthers or Raiders?
Depending on who the Dolphins hire as a HC, they may be in on it for awhile too. All that being said, I think your assessment of the situation is way off.
barutanseijin
January 29, 2022 at 02:52 am
C’mon, biggest ever? He’s going to be 39 and already showing his age. Hasn’t won anything other than the North since 2010. A long time ago…. Montana, a far better QB didn’t produce the NFL’s biggest trade.
BirdDogUni
January 29, 2022 at 10:10 am
Different times my friend. Joe was a great QB, but he took way more punishment than Rodgers ever did and while Joe was great, he has no where near the arm of Aaron Rodgers. I predict there will be at least 3 teams seriously involved in trade talks which will drive up the compensation.
Sure we will both be very interested in how it turns out... We can come back here and discuss when it's all said and done...
Go Pack Go!
Oppy
January 27, 2022 at 06:22 pm
I would like and expect the Packers to get maximum compensation for Rodgers in a trade.
With that being said, if all you can get is two 3rd rounders, a special teams player, and a bag of funyuns, you take that trade a move forward.
As of right now, the biggest compensation for Rodgers is clearing of cap.
People keep on saying "I don't want to go through a rebuild." Well, guess what? We've been rebuilding for the last many years. Keeping Rodgers means you have to get rid of a number of those players that are supposed to be core players for the next decade. You don't want to rebuild? You dump Rodgers and Adams contracts.
canadapacker
January 27, 2022 at 06:51 pm
So now you are a capologist - You might have to give up a Crosby and renegotiate with Bak and Smith ( due to injury plague seasons - and maybe Bak is unable to return). Tonyon MVS and others will need contracts that are performance based which helps. Adams Campbell and Douglass will somehow need to be paid - others might move on if they get better deals. That is not a rebuild and Jones is back into a contract year and he needs to perform - and if you take that 75 yard broken coverage play out of his stats - he really didnt perform like one of the best running backs in the league.
Oppy
January 27, 2022 at 07:06 pm
Sure, what do I know.
Wait and see.
Packers let Adams walk and send Rodgers packing, or this team slowly erodes next 5 years.
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 08:00 am
You can't live hard-up against the cap for very long before you're the Bears. Old, undertalented, and in trouble.
That said: I think they made two good hires in Poles and Eberflus.
CheesyTex
January 28, 2022 at 07:53 pm
Crap! Hate to see someone with your insight feel the Bears making a turn.
croatpackfan
January 28, 2022 at 10:46 am
And after those 5 years there will be few decades of rebuilding.
You forget one very common situation. As further you push the money in the future, rebuilding will last at least 3 times longer. That is the rule and that rule is rarely beaten.
It is always beter to get rid of the player one year early than one year late.
If Jordan will show no substantial improvement, you'll have high draft pick to chose another QB, which can be new HOFer. If Jordan Love will improve and show flashes through first full year as starter, than you develop him further.
Aaron Rodgers said that in his 2nd year as starter he started to know exactly where and which player will be on the offense, he needed another year to be able to say that for opponent defense.
It is big question will Aaron Rodgers skills will be deminishing step by step from father time, or he will drop off the clif suddenly next year. What worries me is that we already saw that drop off in the last game of this season!
Coldworld
January 29, 2022 at 09:14 am
The other risk with Rodgers is injury. That’s true for any high cost QB, but with age the risk increases in terms of propensity, severity and recovery time.
I don’t think Rodgers physical ability has declined very much in terms of his arm. He’s obviously not quite as mobile, but he’s no statue. I do think his accuracy at long range may be eroding a little.
Leatherhead
January 27, 2022 at 06:45 pm
As The Godfather might say, “everybody’s gotta be reasonable or it’s bad for business.”
Denver can get a QB that makes them an AFC contender. Rodgers can move on, get a truckload of money, and start a new chapter of his marvelous mystery with his Hollywood A List wife in a beautiful part of the country. Green Bay gets $20 million in cap relief. Everybody wins if everybody is reasonable.
Considering the cap relief, I think a first round pick, AND a player on their rookie deal who can play for us…..Fant, Jeudy, Stearns, Surtain….is reasonable. Otherwise he can retire or play for Detroit.
I actually think we can get more in trade, but a mid-first round pick and a quality player would be my rock bottom price.,
Bure9620
January 27, 2022 at 07:14 pm
If Stafford is worth 2 firsts, I would hold Denver hostage, Tag and trade Adams as well
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 09:02 am
...and, vey likely, Bakhtiari gets dealt after 2022 when the cap hit is manageable.
Coldworld
January 28, 2022 at 09:25 am
Almost inevitable I think. I think Bakh’s contract reflects the expectation that Rodgers would be here this year, before Covid constricted the cap and other players began to emerge. It was a scale of contract for a player of his age that the Packers rarely offer, in order to keep Rodgers blind side protector with him. In retrospect, due to injury, the cap shrinkage and player development, it’s proved to be a milestone through no fault of Bakh’s. That 20 odd million in cap would make a big difference were it available today.
Fubared
January 27, 2022 at 06:51 pm
I dont know but my guess, if they could get a one and three that would be saying something. Hey is cant win playoff games and is 39 next year and you have no idea how many other years he stays around. I do not see any team bankrupting their future on a 39 year old guy who is flaky at best
Bure9620
January 27, 2022 at 07:15 pm
Stafford was worth 2 firsts....
MarkinMadison
January 27, 2022 at 07:37 pm
Stafford is six years younger and you had the delusion that his play was due to being on really bad teams. Everyone knows what Rodgers is, for better or worse.
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 08:27 am
...and if you're another team, do you look at the Packers and have the delusion that they didn't do anything to prop him up with skill position players and FORCED him to be an Adams-funnel?
Coldworld
January 28, 2022 at 09:29 am
Or, given his lack of turnovers, do you see him as an ultimate game manager and discount the claims that he plays how he wants regardless of what the coach wants or believe that your HC will be able to overcome that?
greengold
February 02, 2022 at 02:55 am
That happens all the time.
Alberta_Packer
January 27, 2022 at 07:08 pm
There is little doubt that Rodgers trade value has fallen after coughing-up his most recent playoff hairball - that any cat would have been proud of. It very well may have cost an extra first round and later round picks to the Packers. Still, he is an elite talent who would be enticing to enough win-now teams / GMs - of which there are several - who may believe that Rodgers is the missing piece to their SB puzzle.
I'm with others who believe that Denver will be the primary suitor for his services - for reasons cited by the various other commenters. If so, then Denver's 1st round pick + 2nd + 2nd/3rd (next year) + Jerry Jeudy would represent a maximum return for the Packers. If he is traded to any other team - perhaps the Packers can get more.
While the Packers may not receive a king's ransom for trading Rodgers - nor should they expect a pauper's pittance.
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 08:05 am
Right now, the fixes available are Watson (who will be a PR nightmare, and has a ginormous contract of his own) and Rodgers. The Seahawks seem to have made nice with Wilson. It could be the new regime in Minnesota decides Cousins is too much of a albatross around their necks to keep. The rookie QB class seems to be underwhelming. Where does supply meet demand?
Alberta_Packer
January 28, 2022 at 12:43 pm
In Life After Rodgers - Jordan Love is the unknown variable. We still don't have a complete assessment of him and it may very well take another season to complete one. So I think it both prudent and practical to bring in a veteran and functional QB - like a Bridgewater or Dalton or even Bortles - as a contingency plan. Then after next season - the FO does a re-assessment.
jannesbjornson
January 29, 2022 at 02:20 pm
Get Minshew.
dobber
January 29, 2022 at 02:23 pm
He's the ideal in-camp QB to bring in to compete with Love.
BirdDogUni
January 28, 2022 at 03:55 pm
Cousins' $35 million 2022 base salary in the final year of the contract was guaranteed for injury at signing. The $35 million became fully guaranteed this past March 19 on the third day of the 2021 league year. Cousins' has the NFL's third-largest 2022 salary cap number at $45,166,668.
Doubt the new regime does anything with Cousins this year... He's as average as they come, but financially they don't have much choice...
Coldworld
January 29, 2022 at 09:06 am
Agree. The Vikings are in a hole with Cousins for another year. Unless Getsy is a genius, I find him a surprising choice for OC in Chicago. I’m not sure it’s an appropriate choice for either side at this juncture.
blacke00
January 27, 2022 at 06:59 pm
I'm going to be the contrarian. I think AR trade value is actually very high. Tom Brady one of the best years of his career and Rodgers (during the season outplayed him. Potentially, a second MVP in as many years! GM's will look at Brady and think....Hmmm? When and if will ever get a chance like this again????
If Rodgers wants a trade Denver will be it and they WILL give up a lot to get him. John Elway wants another SB, he did it with Peyton Manning, so he'll do whatever it takes (well almost) to catch lightning in a bottle...again.
Two 1sts, a WR (pick a name), and at least a premium defensive player.
Now if Adams mixed into the deal, ( a tag and trade deal)...all bets are off and price goes even higher.
I guess we'll just have to see.
PackFanatic99
January 27, 2022 at 08:13 pm
I doubt it. 2 first and 2 other players? I dont see it but I sure hope you are right.
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 08:24 am
More picks, fewer players. Other teams will be trying to dump bad contracts and keep young, cheap guys. The Packers aren't in a position to take on cap and other teams will want to keep those young, cheap guys to hold up their rosters. If I'm the Packers, I think I'd rather have picks.
croatpackfan
January 28, 2022 at 10:52 am
Well if indeed it is Denver, the only young player from their roster I'm interested in is Noah Fant. packers need good TE and it is hard to find ready to go TEs through draft.
BirdDogUni
January 27, 2022 at 09:26 pm
Just for argument's sake, let's say the Broncos and Colts get into a bidding war... We know Rodgers probably wants to go to Denver now with Hackett being named HC, but the Colts are loaded too, so he may be on board going to the Colts since their division isn't as strong as the AFC West... It could get very interesting very quickly! Especially if Gutey has the balls to tag and trade DA too... ; )
Coldworld
January 28, 2022 at 09:41 am
Welcome sight Bird Dog!
I think that, in any situation such as this, the first question is “Do we believe that we should move on from Rodgers? If (for whatever reasons) the answer is yes, that needs to be a decision made primarily for factors other than what we might get for him. Always know that your foundational decision basis is one that you are comfortable with.
If one decides to move on then play hardball and try to drum up a market, knowing that anything you get is a plus. Know what your minimum is and be certain that you can live with that and still feel trade us the right decision and you will be far more likely to negotiate the best deal available. What that is depends on the number of interested parties and the degree of interest that they hold.
croatpackfan
January 28, 2022 at 10:55 am
Only problem is that Aaron Rodgers has in his contract that he can block (or to place veto) if the team Packers wants to trade him is not by his will.
So, saying that he actually make him available for others teams under less price. If he will be traded, teams will discuss trade first with Aaron, than with Packers!
You need to have that in consideration!
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 11:13 am
Don't think teams can directly discuss a trade with a player who is under contract (at least without that player's team's consent).
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 12:28 pm
Correct. It's tampering for a team to work with a player under contract without consent (although "unofficial" contact happens all the time). That said, if the Packers find a team that's willing to offer up the right compensation, they'll have to let ARod talk to them to make sure he'll report.
To my knowledge, ARod doesn't have a no-trade clause. However, he can just refuse to report....which isn't tremendously different. No team will trade for him if he won't come.
croatpackfan
January 28, 2022 at 12:45 pm
Well, it was reported that to finish trade Packers needs to got approval from AR (it is reported as part of the new contract). So if that is not right to put veto on your deal, how you'll call it?
So, if they agree on both side for trade, than they have to respect AR wishes to which he wants to go.
Second, AR friend, e. g. AJ Hawk may discuss with some team, w/o knowledge of AR and that is not tampering.
Later, during his friendly drink AJ can mention AR that the team is interested in him.
Gee
January 28, 2022 at 10:42 am
BDU is that really U?
BirdDogUni
January 28, 2022 at 03:15 pm
Yep... APC decided to ban me since I wasn't a socialist/communist...
BirdDogUni
January 28, 2022 at 11:15 pm
Who dis? ; P
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 08:50 am
Elway is already on his way out of Denver and has no control over the roster. I would post a link, but we're only allowed one per thread, so try this in your browser (replacing the [dot] with, well, dots):
broncoswire[dot]usatoday[dot]com/2021/10/27/denver-broncos-john-elway-contract-expires-after-2021-season/
jannesbjornson
January 28, 2022 at 01:44 pm
He drank himself out of his job.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
January 28, 2022 at 02:50 pm
Agreed Black!
Packman60
January 28, 2022 at 05:29 pm
Any trade will require Rodgers agreeing to a new contract prior to the trade being finalized, so a team (likely the Broncos) would have him under contract for a minimum or 4-5 years. I expect the Packers would receive either 2 ones & 2 twos or two ones a two and a player, maybe Jeudy or Fant. I also think the Packers will franchise Adams and offer him up for trade and get a pick this year and a 2nd rounder next year. The key for the Packers is not only to get draft capital this year to help replenish their roster due to cap cuts they'll have to make, but also accumulate high draft capital for the "23" draft to position themselves to get a QB next year in what is projected to be a much stronger QB class than this years, in case Love doesn't progress.
MarkinMadison
January 27, 2022 at 07:34 pm
OK the weird thing for me is that Ken talks about the trade value not being as high as we think, and then goes on to predict that the Packers will get the #9 pick, and a couple of second or third round picks plus a player. Huh? That seems like a haul to me, especially after what they got for Farve. Rodgers is essentially on a 1-year deal that is cap-heavy. I think the Packers' best trade leverage was last spring. This winter may be too late to expect multiple premium picks and a player.
PackFanatic99
January 27, 2022 at 08:12 pm
Mark, some were predicting 2 first rounders, even 2 first rounders and a second rounder. So that is what the author was referring to.
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 08:11 am
I think the problem with dealing ARod last spring was that very few teams had any cap space. There's only so much you can do with his deal to keep it palatable under that tightly constricted cap, and the fact that the ARod blow up really happened the eve of the draft meant that all picks were going to be Rodgers-deflated and come in future drafts.
That #9 pick Denver is holding onto looks very tempting--it shouldn't be all the Packers get in return if the destination is Denver--but any other team on the cusp of the playoffs or in the playoff hunt isn't going to have that kind of pick, and won't in the next 2-3 years.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
January 28, 2022 at 03:00 pm
I'd take that 9th selection in Rd 1 (probably draft WR or DL), and Patrick Surtain, CB with Drew Lock, QB thrown in. Lock is improving and would either start or be a quality #2 QB.
That would be two #9 selections in Rd 1 in back to back years (plus, we know Surtain is the real deal), and Drew Lock is only 25 years old and was a high draft selection in Rd 2.
The other player the Packers could use is the 26 year old Bradley Chubb, OLB in place of Surtain who also was a previous 1st Rd pick.
Think about the above! The Packers draft a WR with the #9 pick then get a DL, or OLB with #28 in Rd 1. They get Chubb as an OLB. They automatically address their 3 biggest needs addressed before Rd 2.
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 04:32 pm
Chubb seems to be a name that comes up frequently, but the guy has only played 25 of 49 games the last 3 years....
High expectations based on a really good rookie year, but can't stay healthy.
Packer_Fan
January 27, 2022 at 07:52 pm
You got the point of this all: "I actually think Love can develop into an adequate NFL starter, but it’s going to take a lot of time, and likely a lot of losing... He’s a project. It’s going to take a full season or two of starting, seeing defenses, making mistakes and learning from them." Rodger laid an egg, but for the short term, he will be better than Love. That is the conundrum for Gute. Trade Rodgers for what you can get for him and experience a few losing seasons or keep Rodgers. But Rodgers has the first decision which the Packers have agreed to do. Does he stay or go.
Methinks that if Rodgers decides to go, Gute will have pretty much it all set with whoever agrees to a deal. If not, a long list of players will have to be let go.
PackFanatic99
January 27, 2022 at 08:11 pm
But the goal is to win a super bowl. I think if this was 1990 and we had been losing for 20 years and there was an option to make the Packers a perennial playoff contender but really not contend for a Super Bowl, we'd all have jumped at that.
But yes, we are spoiled after an almost-constant 30 year playoff run. But very few Super Bowl appearances and a lot of choking and underachieving in the playoffs. So, the option of being a solid playoff team with Rodgers returning but NOT being the team we were the last 2 years (due to massive free agency losses) and really having no chance at a SB is NOT attractive to very many Packers fans.
What IS attractive is having a chance to win a SB. So if we go to Love at least after 1 year we find out what we have. Yes, it's probably a 6-11 season or similar. But does he have potential? Does he look like someone who maybe not an MVP but is a top 10 type QB that COULD get you to a Super Bowl with a very strong D and good RBs? Maybe. And if you lose Rodgers we would NOT have massive free agency losses. We'd have losses but they'd be manageable. The team around Love would be MUCH better.
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 08:55 am
A 6-11 season brings us better drafting position than a 12-5 season and a one-and-done choke in the playoffs. If we're not going to play in another SB with AR, then why not suck for a single year, draft well, and return to prominence the next year? These crappy ends to our seasons are sucking the life out of the fanbase.
I actually think we'll be 8-9 or 9-8 with Love, given the disarray that is the NFC North.
PackFanatic99
January 27, 2022 at 08:05 pm
Great article. Sigh. I guess you are right, two first rounders probably won't happen. But lets say they get a 1st rounder and 2 second rounder. WHO would be thrown in from Denver in that scenario? Can you give some examples?
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
January 28, 2022 at 05:08 pm
PackFanatic,
Could be last years 1st round pick Patrick Surtain. .aybe Noah Fant the previous 1st round pick. Maybe Bradley Chubb a 1st round draft pick a few years earlier. Or at WR, Jerry Jeudy, or Courtland.
Packman60
January 28, 2022 at 05:56 pm
I believe two 1's and either a couple additional picks or players is likely. WR Jerry Jeudy and TE Albert O would be players the Packers could possibly have interest in.
BirdDogUni
January 27, 2022 at 08:30 pm
Browns, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers in the AFC could all be viable players in a Bidding War...
Panthers, Saints, Eagles, WFT in the NFC could also be interested.
I don't see how we could keep Rodgers and DA... I suppose some creative cap adjustments could work, but I think they'll end up trading Rodgers. I just hope Gutey has the balls to tag and trade DA too...
Would I like to see AR at QB next year for the Pack... Sure, I just don't think it's feasible or probable...
croatpackfan
January 28, 2022 at 11:11 am
Aaron has veto on any trade decision if he do not like team Packers want to trade him to.
OK. Lets state again:
1. Tampa bay - Bruce Ariens will not allowed Diva's on the team any time soon...
2. Steelers - I believe that Mike Tomlin is tired of drama (Brown, Bell...)
3. Colts - intriguing, but I do not see Reich wants him
4. Miami - AR would place veto on that trade - he will have nobody to play with
5. Texans - see above
6. Browns - possible, but I believe he wants clear situation with GM and coach, and they have Mayfield
7. Panthers - see under 4. & 5.
8. Saints - they are only team in NFL worse than Packers by a lot (Cap Hell) - they are in rebuilding process
9. Eagles - they have Hearts I do not see they want old Diva
10. WFT - you mean WTF?
11. Giants - I added them, no way, see 4., 5., 7. & 10.
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 12:35 pm
The Colts don't have a first-round pick in 2021, which--unless they're shipping a lot more into their future--is a problem.
The Eagles have to decide whether they think they're in a competitive window now (and whether Hurts can be the man, now) or whether they're aiming a little further down the road. 3 first-round picks this year allows them to do a lot of things. I'd be looking down the road.
BirdDogUni
January 27, 2022 at 08:31 pm
Sorry for the double post?
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 08:56 am
Howdy - are you abandoning APC, too, or just expanding your horizons? :)
BirdDogUni
January 28, 2022 at 01:50 pm
I got banned a long time ago after a lengthy discussion with Chesty... Voicing anything but a totally communistic/socialist view at APC is not tolerated apparently...
Houndog
January 27, 2022 at 10:14 pm
I agree that Rodgers value is overstated, and possibly overrated, but Denver could still be a wildcard.
Hackett is now their coach, and Rodgers could help get him off to a good start, Denver needs that.
They've got good receivers and a pretty good defense, so it's not a total rebuild situation.
And then there's Elway, who won 2 SB's at the end of his career, and even though he no longer has full control he's still in the front office. Elway's the guy that brought in Peyton Manning when he could barely throw at all, went to two SBs and won one, he might see this as a second Manning thing.
Which ever way it works out, the handwriting is on the wall, they're up against the cap and change is all but a certainty. As for LaFleur, what else can say other than "we want him back"? It keeps ARod happy and lets others believe they still want him, it keeps the biddrs wondering, he doesn't dare throw ARod under the bus.
And, I keep hoping that 'under the bus' space is already reserved, for Maurice Drayton and Steve Wirtell.
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 08:57 am
Elway looks to be out of Denver in April; I think he's a non-factor here.
GP1
January 27, 2022 at 11:44 pm
Our W.R. s not named Adams did nothing because our Q.B. won't throw them the ball. There is nothing difficult about the situation we are in. we have a skilful but over rated Q.B. who is A - very expensive B - well past his prime and getting further away from it.
We stick with Rogers we stick with disappointment as we have done now for a decade. We don't know what we are going to get with Love just as we didn't know what we would get with Rogers and Rogers first season was ordinary and many Packer fans were screaming to get rid of him and, unbelievably, bring Farve back. They are doing the same thing again now; only the names have changed.
Too many people are afraid .....
Bearmeat
January 29, 2022 at 08:42 am
You nailed it.
scoonie_penn
January 28, 2022 at 06:09 am
I'm still trying to figure out how I have read and watched videos proclaiming over and over and over again that W/L are not a QB stat, yet, if Rodgers leaves and Love takes over this perennial playoff team and SB contender will become a 4 or 5 win team. I watched the Colts lose Peyton Manning and go from 1st in the AFC to a 2 win team. Tom Brady goes to the Bucs and win a SB... Maybe just maybe that narrative is a bit off-base.
SanLobo
January 28, 2022 at 09:01 am
If you look at Rodgers’ win/loss record in the playoffs he is 12/10. Making him the10th winningest playoff QB in the SB era. If you look at his QB states he is in the top 5 in nearly every category…completion %, interception ratio, QB rating, etc…. So Rodgers being unable to win even though he has outplayed his opponents in nearly every playoff game drives you to consider wins and loses are a team stat.
We got so used to seeing him play lights out in games we all get pissed when he is suddenly human. Oh well, it’s probably a moot point now. The good news is GMs from around the league are looking at his numbers as well, and that will generate a lot of interest.
Gee
January 28, 2022 at 10:46 am
^^THIS^^ Great post.
Dragon5
January 28, 2022 at 02:53 pm
TRUTH: GB only 2 top 10 defenses since 2010 with little draft capital invested in receiving skill positions, and horrible STs to boot.
Doesn't change the fact, that from a management perspective, if you're intention is to sell high (Rodger & Adams), you sell now before value disappears.
barutanseijin
January 29, 2022 at 03:01 am
Depends on what you mean by “outplaying “ the other QB. In what sense did he “outplay” Brady last year? The typical fanboy fallback is to point to INTs, but that is not the only mode of QB failure. Or how about 2014 vs Wilson? Wilson was putrid, but so was Rodgers, just with fewer INTs. Rodgers was completely ineffective vs Eli and the Giants & Garoppolo. Yes, he’s had some nice games in 2010, against weaker opponents (Cowboys!), and has padded stats playing doomed catch-up efforts vs Atlanta etc, but a fat lot of good any of that was.
SanLobo
January 29, 2022 at 09:50 am
I keep saying win loss records are a team stat and folks keep fixating on one player. So let’s take your examples.
Rodgers outplayed Brady in almost every measure last year. The Packers did not outplay the Bucs.
As I recall the Seahawks game, we were up 16-0 at the half. In the first half Rodgers was driving the team, he caught the Seahawks offside so threw a 50/50 ball into the end zone that was picked off. No big deal, except the line judge was sleeping and didn’t throw the flag. Even the game commentators pointed this out. In the second half the Seahawks faked a FG and scored a TD (special teams failure). But near the end of the 4th, we were ahead. The Seahawks scored, were still behind but had to kick. The onside kick was coming and everybody knew it. Seahawks recovered (special teams failure), then scored for a tie as the clock ran out. Seahawks won the OT toss and drove for the game winning score. Rodgers never got back on the field. Rodgers wasn’t great but he outplayed Wilson. The Packers were outplayed by the Seahawks.
So, this last game against the 9ers. Rodgers outplayed Garrapolo by every measure. Our offense outplayed their offense. Our defense outplayed their defense. Our special teams play was so poor it resulted in a 10 point differential in favor of the 9ers. The Packers were outplayed by the 9ers.
Teams always, ALWAYS, try to take away the other team’s best player and force the rest of the team to step up. When the rest of the team doesn’t step up, they lose. It’s a team sport and if your plan is for one player to go out and win the game for you, then you’re going to lose games, no matter how good that one player usually plays.
croatpackfan
January 28, 2022 at 11:15 am
"Tom Brady goes to the Bucs and win a SB..."
And Patriots still reached postseason with rookie QB!
You forgot to mention that. After Cam Newton experiment failed...
SanLobo
January 28, 2022 at 02:17 pm
If a rookie QB can reach the playoffs, he must be on a really good team. Win/loss record is a team stat.
jeremyjjbrown
January 28, 2022 at 07:19 am
"At least four teams have more than one selection in the first round of this year’s draft."
Where did the expectation that the two firsts would have to be this year come form? My guess is Rodgers is worth two firsts and two seconds. I would want picks only, possibly rookie deals and no players on veteran deals. Any team that trades for Rodgers isn't going to want trade players unless they are mistake contracts.
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 08:16 am
I think the quality of those firsts--or at least one of the multiple firsts--is what's attractive. Any future firsts are likely to be deflated in value.
But If I'm one of those teams, I want to keep one of those firsts this year to pick a guy who has a chance to be a real contributor in the ARod window, and deal 1sts off future drafts. Philly's holding three firsts between 15-20. That's found money for them. If they don't believe in Hurts or Minschew?
Frankly, I don't worry so much about ARod in the NFC. The Packers are likely a year or two away from being back at full strength in a best-case scenario. Who cares if he beats you in 2022?...or maybe even 2023?
jeremyjjbrown
January 28, 2022 at 08:24 am
The thing that attracts me about future first say 2023 is that if Love flaps you then have the future Draft Capital to double down and grab a different quarterback.
Coldworld
January 28, 2022 at 09:50 am
We will lose some good players this year in FA and should have some complimentary picks in 2023. I’d be fine with staggering first rounders in principle, but the FO might prefer to have a year of development under a players belt more. It depends on what their draft needs assessment looks like.
jeremyjjbrown
January 28, 2022 at 10:59 pm
There's an argument for either really. You could trade a 2022 1st for even more 2024 capital. We'll see what happens.
Packman60
January 28, 2022 at 05:39 pm
Unless that team is interested in trading for Adams in addition to Rodgers and would include a WR. I expect the Packers to ask for players currently on their rookie deals based upon their cap situation. Jeudy and the backup Tight End for Denver would be two players the Broncos would likely be willing to part with in this scenario.
jeremyjjbrown
January 28, 2022 at 10:59 pm
I agree with you on the rookie deals.
greengold
January 28, 2022 at 07:47 am
The Packers brought this upon themselves by failing to make the tough decision last year.
Now? Our backs are against the wall, with no real leverage, and, yes, his trade value currently overestimated by many.
Regardless, get what you can and move forward.
Cwilly
January 28, 2022 at 07:07 pm
Not entirely true if Denver is in win now mode they could give up a first and a couple seconds and hopefully one of their wide outs. If that would happen the packers have the cap to sign free agents to fill holes currently on the roster. But gute can’t ride love and must make the decision to get a veteran qb after Rodgers. If they could get a Trent dilfer type at qb or one that has something left in the tank their still contenders. I think
Rodgers is the best option but at this point they don’t have the cap space and need that and the picks from a trade. He’s only got a couple years left of elite play and the current roster doesn’t have enough talent because of the cap situation so long and short term the trade benefits all parties!
egbertsouse
January 28, 2022 at 08:05 am
I really hope they trade Rodgers but I don’t see it happening unless he digs in his heels and demands a trade. Since he currently “owns” the FO he may see GB as his best option.
I have my doubts about Love ever being even an average NFL QB. He hasn’t improved in 2 years, he still looks like his tape from his last year at Utah State. Either the coaches are horrible or this kid isn’t catching on. I still remember Bob Schnelker saying that the coaches knew Rich Campbell wasn’t NFL material by 10:30 AM of the first day of practice and decided not to waste their time coaching him. I hope that isn’t what is going on with Love.
stockholder
January 28, 2022 at 08:32 am
Rodgers makes the the packers money. He's the MVP. And if anybody gives you anything for him. It will be about the money they make. Not the super-bowl. When The packers moved on from Favre. They didn’t care about winning. They went for the future. And Favre's " retirement talk “ was uncertainy for them. He had a addiction problem. A repaired thumb. Rodgers does not.!! The packers Traded for John Hadl. Rodgers is better then John Hadl. If the packers trade Rodgers, the commitment to other players is ended. The disrespect they showed Favre and now Rodgers, will hurt anything management achieved while in office. The players union will be using this against them, when it's bargaining time. I guarantee it. Rodgers will be the poster Boy for the union!! It must be Rodgers who wants out now. His jersey still sells. He’s become a media attraction. Rodgers wasn’t Rodgers in the SF game. But the blame can’t go all on him. Rodgers has gotten us to the payoffs. By trading him. It will be an embarrassment the packers may never live down.
jurp
January 28, 2022 at 09:06 am
The players' union doesn't bargain with individual teams, and Rodgers has shown disdain for the union over the past several years, especially since the last CBA was signed. He sat out the meetings in March, 2020 when the CBA was discussed, leaving the Packers' players with no representation.
In addition, AR lied when he said that a League doctor gave him advice about his alternative covid treatment. In early November, the NY Post reported:
"'No doctor from the league or the joint NFL-NFLPA infectious disease consultants communicated with the player,' the NFL said in a statement to Pro Football Talk. 'If they had, they certainly would have never said anything like that.'"
The Union couldn't give two shits about AR.
dobber
January 28, 2022 at 09:20 am
1975 called...they want their antiquated philosophy on player, contract, and roster management back.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
January 28, 2022 at 05:16 pm
Anyone else exhausted with the non-stop Rodgers drama/story? Just think we may have two months yet of this stuff.
Trade him and let's be done with all the drama and get back talking about the team!
Coldworld
January 29, 2022 at 09:28 am
The problem is that it’s a decision that will radically change the direction that the team roster moves, not only for the coming years but in terms of needs and resources this year.
We could ask why Drayton is not yet fired. But let’s face it, there is no possible justification for that except that they forgot to announce it.
Packman60
January 28, 2022 at 05:45 pm
I disagree that the compensation in a Rodgers trade would not be strong. I think 2 ones and 2 twos is likely or 2 ones , 1 two and a player- maybe Jeudy, if Denver is the trade partner.
Cwilly
January 28, 2022 at 06:57 pm
I think it’s time to trade Rodgers and reload. The compensation for him will be enough to cover some of the loss. He gets a chance at a ring and the packers reload the roster and keep Campbell and maybe Douglas. But they need a veteran qb with something left in the tank. Their still contenders with that. Jordan love isn’t the answer and saying he still needs time when he looks lost and scared proves that. Rodgers is still the packers best hope but realistically that ship has sailed and being a packers fan you should maximize what you can get now and let him end his career with at least one more ring. Yes he didn’t play well at lambeau last weekend but who would in that weather. He also doesn’t play special teams. The rosters only whole cost them a super bowl. The packers stars are great players but the depth outside of them cost them the divisional game. Trading Rodgers you reload on talent get cap relief to build a better roster whole. Adams is gone so getting one of Denver’s young receivers and draft picks and using free agency for a veteran qb would enable the packers to get over the top and maybe they would be the ones playing Denver next year or the year after. Both sides win in this scenario but the commitment to love is unrealistic and if this team does trade Rodgers don’t make the mistake Chicago did riding a qb that won’t get you there like they did with trubisky.
Stickfish
January 29, 2022 at 07:23 am
Rodgers and Adams to Denver. Lock, Jeudy and a pair of #1 picks to us. Lock and a #1 to the Seahawks for 33 year Russell Wilson. The 2022 version of the Pack is built to win and MLF gets a chance to operate outside the drama.
<><
13TimeChamps
January 29, 2022 at 10:24 am
So...the Packers, who are in SC hell, primarily because of Rodgers enormous contract, are going to bring in Wilson, and his even more enormous contract? Don't think so.
Stickfish
January 29, 2022 at 11:22 am
Here are the #s on Russell Wilson:
2021: $19M base salary
2022: $19M base salary + $5M roster bonus; $24M total
2023: $22M base salary + $5M roster bonus; $27M total
And here are the #s on Aaron Rodgers:
2021: $14.7M base salary*
2022: $25M base salary + $500,000 workout bonus; $25.5M total
2023: $25M base salary + $500,000 workout bonus; $25.5M total
Wilson presumably might be open to new contract spreading out his number even more, Jeudy is on his rookie contract. It makes little sense to me even if we could afford Adams to keep him if we don’t have the talent under center to get him the ball, would be a huge drain on resources.
Short of bringing in another talent to run MLF’s offense in 2022 it becomes a fire sale and it just doesn’t seem to be the mindset in the front office.
<><
13TimeChamps
January 29, 2022 at 01:04 pm
Base salary and salary cap hit aren't the same.
But it's a moot point anyway. Why on earth would Seattle give up Wilson for Lock and a #1?
I know it's fun to play GM, but you really should put down the pipe while you're playing.
Stickfish
January 29, 2022 at 04:12 pm
Classy comment, appreciate the contribution. Read the Seahawks news/forums and it’s very similar to Rodgers last year. Wilson is a flight candidate and has been, always a benefit to pick the exit strategy.
Cheers.
13TimeChamps
January 29, 2022 at 05:20 pm
It was a joke...calm down.
I never said there wouldn't be a scenario where Seattle might consider trading Wilson. What I'm saying is it sure as hell wouldn't be for Drew Lock. Have you seen his career stats? 24 games...25 TDs/20INts. This is what you get for an arguably top-5 QB in the league?
Cheers to you as well.
Stickfish
January 29, 2022 at 09:59 pm
It is a lame line at best, and that was like years ago before it became so outdated and insensitive. Google it. Lock for Wilson is no beuno hence the #1, maybe other compensation. You went from bad info on contracts to justifications. I can explain. But you won’t get it.
Best of luck
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13TimeChamps
January 29, 2022 at 10:57 pm
Lol
Oppy
January 29, 2022 at 04:34 am
I don't know who needs to hear this, but the chances of the Packers using the franchise tag on a player they don't intend to retain is slim to none.
I will concede that it is -possible- that Gutekunst completely breaks from a long-standing, unwritten code of ethics that the Packers front office has held in regards to franchise tag use, but I would say it's extremely unlikely.
The Packers don't use the franchise tag to hold players that don't want to be in Green Bay, and they don't use the franchise tag on players they don't intent to sign to a long term deal.
The only player they've franchised was Ryan Pickett, and it was a move made in good faith with Pickett's agent with the understanding it was a temporary move to get Pickett under contract while they hammered out the details of his new deal in the coming months (which they did.)
I don't believe you will see Adams tagged and traded. It would be shocking.
Bearmeat
January 29, 2022 at 08:38 am
After 07 they tag traded a DL to Cleveland. I forget his name. They got a 2nd in return. Adams is more valuable than that. I think they go full "evil" and trade Rodgers and tag/trade Davante. Possibly to the same place.
dobber
January 29, 2022 at 11:26 am
Corey Williams. The Packers could use another player of his ability.
Oppy
January 29, 2022 at 12:35 pm
Good catch, Bearmeat.
I don't recall this transaction, but you're on the money.
BirdDogUni
January 29, 2022 at 11:12 pm
Hate to say it, but I hope you're right... (I didn't read your comment before I replied to Oppy...)
*Corey Williams was his name...
BirdDogUni
January 29, 2022 at 11:11 pm
Old TT tagged that DL guy (Cory Williams) and traded him to Cleveland... So there is a possibility Gutey tags and trades DA... Just saying...
I hope he has the guts to do it...
Bearmeat
January 29, 2022 at 08:41 am
Ken,
I have to say it. Your ideas are crazy. Stafford got 3 1s. Rodgers is older, but better than Stafford. The QB market is insane, and while 12 does have veto power, he will want to play and GB's management has to play hard ball. Either he takes a vet minimum deal in 22 or he's traded. It's as simple as that.
Someone will go nuts for him. And he won't want to play for the vet minimum. So he will take that deal.