I missed last week for…reasons. I considered coming up with some kind of excuse about how I started writing this then realized it simply needed more time and I wanted to make sure it had the room to breathe that it needed, but that’s simply not true. No, the truth is much more mundane and not worth getting into here.

The reason doesn’t matter. What matters is that we’re back now and we’re ready to finish this thing up. We’re in the red zone and we’ve got two articles remaining in this series. A huge thank you to anyone who has stuck with me this entire time.

Today, we’re looking at the high red zone: the area between the opponent’s 11-20 yard line. We’re not quite on the doorstep of the end zone, but we’re getting there. We’re on the walkway. Walk down me I'm the walkway.

I think we all know that the red zone scoring offense hasn’t been great the last couple of years. Looking at TD% in the red zone, they were 2nd in the league in 2019 (TD on 67.9% of trips) and 1st in 2020 (76.8), but they’ve taken a hit the last couple of years. They were 18th in 2021 (57.5%) and 23rd in 2022 (51.9%). That seems bad!

Most of that failure comes in the low red zone, because their high red zone performance wasn’t bad last year. They scored TDs on 13.2% of their plays (6th in the league) and averaged 4.6 YPA (7th in the league). For the year, they averaged 5.4 plays per game in this area, so we’re just going to round up to 6 plays for our call sheet.

Since the chances of scoring a TD are lower here than they are in the low red zone, I valued yards per attempt over TD%. My thought was that, for this area, I valued plays that would be able to consistently get me closer to the goal line, then focus on getting over the goal line once we were in the low red zone.

So let’s get it.

Passes

All Go RB Seam (19.0 YPA, 1 TD)

This is a concept I try to work into as many areas as possible, but it seems like a perfect fit here. It gives you a home run option with the vertical routes, and an easy checkdown into space underneath if the big play isn’t open.

The big play has largely been taken away by defenses over the last couple of years (with some exceptions, as we'll see below), but it's a versatile concept that can be unlocked with more speed at the receiver position.

Safety creeps down over Tonyan to create the single-high look pre-snap. Doubs is shadowed on motion by Johnson, so this is looking like man coverage.
Tonyan gets inside leverage with an initial vertical push. Safety is held to the middle and Doubs beats his man. Beautiful. pic.twitter.com/R0DEpBsoH6

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) June 11, 2023

High Cross (13.0 YPA, 1 TD)

You can think of High Cross as a bit of a deeper Mesh (at least in terms of the core). Where Mesh typically sees drag routes crossing at a depth of 3-6 yards, High Cross sees the routes crossing at a depth of 10-20 yards. An offense is more likely to see single-high defenses in this area, so a concept like this can work well in making life difficult for the safety. 

Single-high safety in a no-win situation. Shaded to the strong side (with the 2TE look on the right), he's pulled up by the playfake, then drawn to Watson on the shallow crosser right in front of him.
Meanwhile, Lazard maintains inside leverage & gets open in the end zone. pic.twitter.com/uCqU0OTjAF

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) June 27, 2023

TE Screen (3.0 YPA)

I know I said I value YPA in this area but I also value concepts I like and I like this one.

It didn’t do great for the Packers in 2022, but it could be better in 2023, just based on the uptick in athleticism we’ll be seeing. I loved Marcedes Lewis like any sane person would, but you wouldn’t really call him “explosive” at this stage in his career, and Robert Tonyan never got back to 100% after coming back from his injury.

Now, you’ve got Josiah Deguara likely stepping into a bigger role, as well as Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft in the fold. Tyler Davis is also here, and he can move with the ball in his hands.

The key to all screens is the misdirect. Sell the action you want to sell, divert attention away from the real target, set up blocking on the screen and go. Yes, another key is having someone who knows how to follow blocks, but they also need to be elusive and explosive in space, and that’s something the Packers have in the TE room now. 

This is a bet that this idea will work better with athleticism in the 2023 TE room than it did in 2022.

One thing about me is that I love TE screens. pic.twitter.com/ncTVOM8kgi

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) June 27, 2023

Runs

Inside Zone (6.8 YPA, 1 TD)

One of the things I’m really excited about - and won’t shut up about on any platform that invites me to talk - is what the Packers did with the running game last year. They tried going with more pulling offensive linemen early in the year, but eventually scrapped most of it, as inconsistency along the offensive line rendered it fairly ineffective. 

Instead, they used the Inside/Wide Zone looks as their base and used TEs & WRs as their pullers. They’d typically do this from motion, with the attack position changing. Sometimes they’d use the puller to kick out the edge. Sometimes they’d attack the middle. It was a really fun and effective change to their run game, allowing them to do some of the same things they wanted to do with pullers, but without using multiple offensive linemen.

Cobb works under the formation to kick out the defender, giving Jones some nice room in the middle. pic.twitter.com/omfro88rSJ

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) June 27, 2023

I’m excited to see what the Packers will do with the run game in 2023. We’ll likely see more of the early-season pullers that we saw them try in 2022, but using motion TE/WR as part of their Zone package can lead to a powerful, diverse run game, without having to alter their core game.

Of course, the core Inside Zone play can also be an effective option, provided the offensive line is capable of doing their job.

I love Aaron Jones so very, very much. pic.twitter.com/AuI0wG58qV

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) June 27, 2023

Counter (10.0 YPA)

This falls into some of the power/puller looks I was talking about earlier, but it’s still something we saw throughout the season and are likely to see a decent amount this year. The overall idea is to sell the run to one side (with some blocking releases and the initial step of the running back), then pull a couple men to the other side of the line and have the RB follow them. That’s an incredibly simplistic description of Counter, and yet I feel it gets the job done.

Right side of the line blocks down, Jenkins & Tonyan pull back to the side, Jones sells the counter step then attacks to the pull side. pic.twitter.com/HXJ4KBu96Q

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) June 27, 2023

RPOs

Inside Zone/Stick (7.5 YPA)

I know RPOs can get a bad rap, but the entire idea is to have an answer for however the defense reacts and force them to be wrong. It starts with the run concept, with the idea being that you should intend to run unless the defense lines up in such a way that the pass is the better option.

This specific tag is Inside Zone run with a Stick/Quick-Out route to one side. That tag is typically a two-man combination, with the outside receiver running a vertical/clear-out route and the slot receiver running the stick route. The Packers will typically throw if there is a numbers advantage to the pass side, or if the slot receiver has outside leverage on the defender. If it’s not a clear advantage, hand the ball off into a light box.

An RPO for you: inside zone with a Stick/Quick-Out tag on the left side. Giants have a light box up front and the slot defender is playing straight-up, so the ball goes to Jones on the run. pic.twitter.com/fs5xvlhzGN

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) June 27, 2023

We’ll be looking at the Packers in the Low Red Zone next week, and that’ll be the last entry in this series. I’m really looking forward to digging into that one, then seeing where the rest of the offseason leads me. 

If you missed the rest of the series - or simply want to revisit it - I’ve gathered the links below.

Introduction
1st & 10
2nd & long
2nd & medium
2nd & short
3rd & long
3rd & medium
3rd & short
4th & short
Explosives

Albums listened to: Starflyer 59 - Old; Portugal. The Man - Chris Black Changed My Life; Basement Revolver - Embody; Foxing - Draw Down the Moon; Wye Oak - Every Day Like the Last; Slothrust - Parallel Timeline; Maisie Peters - The Good Witch