Should the Packers Be Searching for an Aaron Jones Replacement?
Will the Packers begin their search for Aaron Jones' replacement with the NFL draft set to begin on Thursday?
Some would say it’s just business, but would the Green Bay Packers really choose not to pay an emerging star in running back Aaron Jones? It’s not as crazy as you might think. With the NFL draft set to begin Thursday, the Packers may try to find Jones’ eventual replacement.
Teams that choose to pay a premiere back often end up regretting that decision instantly. David Johnson and Todd Gurley are some of the first examples to come to mind, but there are other cases where paying a running back never paid off.
On Thursday, Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey signed a four-year contract making him the highest-paid player at his position in league history. Jones may not be on the same tier as these guys are or once were, but he is close enough. And, he will want to be paid like it.
After all, Jones enjoyed a breakout season in 2019 in which he totaled 1,558 yards from scrimmage and 19 total touchdowns, tied for most in the NFL. The former fifth-rounder out of UTEP thrived in his first season under head coach Matt LaFleur.
Some credit goes to LaFleur who breathed life into what had become a stagnant run game in Green Bay, however, he couldn’t have done it without Jones. Jones proved to not only to be the slashing threat the offense needed, but he posted career numbers as a receiving threat as well.
Jones has improved every year as a pro since being selected in 2017, but it will be difficult to top last season.
General Manager Brian Gutekunst and the Packers now find themselves in a pickle. Life without Jones is inconceivable after years without a stable rushing attack. Then again, paying a premium for a running back when you have an Aaron Rodgers-led offense for at least the next few years doesn’t make much sense either as you try to surround him with as much talent as possible. Having a considerable portion of the salary cap dedicated to a running back will only hinder that.
It was reported that Gutekunst met with Jones’ agent at the NFL Combine in February, but a deal wasn't reached. No news surfaced how far apart the two sides were, either.
As time ticks on, Jones may not have a deal inked before next season. However, by then, the team might be exploring other options with so much to consider.
Not only will Jones be gone, but Jamaal Williams is slated to become a free agent in 2021 also. Williams is the thunder to Jones’ lightning with the ability to start if needed. However, he’s not the same caliber of playmaker.
Williams could be brought back because he will be much cheaper, but Green Bay will still need to find their starter if they move on from Jones. One way and probably the easiest is through the draft.
Jones was a fifth-rounder and Williams a fourth. It isn't the sexiest route to take, but finding a starting-caliber running back on day three of the draft is more than doable as we have seen time and time again. There's a chnace he may not be as good as Jones, but it could be the smarter play in the big picture.
Brandon Carwile is a Packers writer who also enjoys watching and breaking down film. Follow him on Twitter @PackerScribe.
Comments (58)
taarons420
April 20, 2020 at 06:33 am
Extending him now would be a mistake.
Let the draft and the season play out.
They can always draft a RB after NEXT season if necessary.
RB is one position where a rookie can jump in and contribute right away.
Coldworld
April 20, 2020 at 07:57 am
That’s the gamble. If he gets injured we suffer this season but his price goes down. If he has a down year, we may elect to let him go. If he performs like last year he will almost certainly price himself out of town.
Is Jones truly special? If so, and if he will agree, extend him now. If the team believe he can be replaced, then the dollars can be used elsewhere, and we are going to have to make sacrifices to live under the cap.
It seems most here think King is a sacrifice that we can make, but if his play takes a step forward, I don’t think that will be easy either. As a guy with limited experience prior to last season, that is a conceivable scenario. Bakh is Bakh, but he is going to be hugely expensive and no longer young, and then we have Clark. I would prefer to keep all of them, but that’s going to be impossible.
If I were to extend now, I’d focus on Bakh and Clark out of necessity. Problem is that Bakh knows that this is his best chance to make big money and may want more and longer on the free market.
Gute earns his money. Tough choices and an overheated crystal ball are to be expected.
Packers2020
April 20, 2020 at 03:11 pm
I say draft a RB this year in the 2nd or 3rd if there is one worth taking. Then you have insurance. They can always play on ST's if they do not crack the starting lineup.
RCPackerFan
April 20, 2020 at 06:50 am
Even if they resign Jones, they need to find more RB's.
Williams might not be back. Ervin only signed a 1 year deal and might not be back. Clearly Dexter Williams wasn't ready as a rookie. And will he ever be?
There are a number of different types of RB's in this draft. They have many options if they do choose to draft one.
I would not be surprised if they drafted a RB in the 4th-7th round.
Now that being said if for some reason Johnathon Taylor was available in the 2nd round, i would go after him. He is a special RB.
Leatherhead
April 20, 2020 at 09:24 am
We’re expecting a Super Bowl run, but if Jones gets hurt the entire load is going to be on the shoulders of Jamaal Williams. I like Williams.....he’s dependable and assignment sure. But I wouldn’t want him to be the whole show.
I’m in favor of taking an RB on the second day. I think Zack Moss would be an excellent choice at around #80. Run more, pass less.
dobber
April 20, 2020 at 10:40 am
I think Williams fundamentally changes what they do in the offense relative to what they do with Jones.
Leatherhead
April 20, 2020 at 01:03 pm
No, we do the same stuff. Probably not quite as well.
Guam
April 20, 2020 at 07:33 am
The Packers have other needs this year and running back is one of the few "plug and play" positions in the NFL. They can draft Jones' replacement next year. I don't believe the Packers can afford to resign all of their free agents next year (Clark, Bahk, Jones, King) and they will have to choose who not to resign. I would put Jones at the top of the "don't resign" list simply because there are good running backs available in the draft every year.
Packers2020
April 20, 2020 at 03:40 pm
It is not about need. It is about BPA. You cannot pass up a player that is top on your board or could be a game changer even if you have depth at a certain position.
This why TT screwed up the depth of the Packers at a ton of positions the last 6 or 7 years because he kept picking CB's and DL. Then of course he also missed on them so it was even worse.
Always BPA, IMO unless the one player can get you to a SB.
stockholder
April 20, 2020 at 07:34 am
I believe they should extend Jones. The sooner the better. And Yes they should draft a RB. But not @30. Dump Taylor and sign him. I believe Gutey won't Be foolish. Jones has found a home in this offense. The only thing holding it up, are finding Cap friendly numbers.
Razer
April 20, 2020 at 07:45 am
Not sure of the order but Kenny Clark, Bahktiari and Davante Adams are all scheduled for re-investment after next year. I would rather see us secure these key players than a RB. I love the fact that we finally have a decent RB but some smart drafting can ensure that a replacement or two are in the queue. Plus, injury at RB is as close to a sure thing as there is in sports.
Signing Aaron Jones to a big contract would not be my preference. Sorry.
dobber
April 20, 2020 at 08:38 am
Clark and Bakhtiari after 2020, Adams after 2021.
Hematite
April 20, 2020 at 08:16 am
I'm 72 years old, so I grew up in the run first era of football and grabbing a stud running back early was the way to go.
The game has evolved into a pass centric game and running backs have become less necessary to pay the big bucks to.
Jones is a stud running back that I really like but I don't think it's necessary to throw crazy money at him.
Time to look for his replacement IMHO.
murf7777
April 20, 2020 at 08:21 am
I agree with you, many good RB’s are taking after round 3. I’d prefer to place our draft and SC capital on other positions like OT and pass rushers.
Stroh
April 21, 2020 at 05:41 pm
You "Get It"... Congrats. The draft and salary cap needs to go to premium positiions. QB, OT, Pass Rushers and CB. Jones is a good player not a superstar, much less a generational player.
TheVOR
April 20, 2020 at 08:26 am
If the best Running back coming out of College this year is sitting there at 30 for GB to take him, they should draft the guy. This team has needs everywhere, DL, ILB, OL, RB, WR, and a case to be made for QB as well.
The criteria needs to be "Draft a starting football player/major contributor" with the 30th overall pick. GB simply cannot afford to draft a guy in the first round that isn't on the football field.
RB at 30? If he's a can't miss wrecking machine, absolutely you draft the guy, can't go wrong. Determining Jones future and contract is super tricky, dude has missed stretches of games due to injury, that's a risk, as is his body type, especially if you're talking about an extension that will surely pay him a hefty raise.
I like the player, I just don't view him as a Bell Cow, he's more of a complimentary back than a Bell Cow. They will be drafting RB in this draft, without question.
Lphill
April 20, 2020 at 08:33 am
The Packers probably were gonna resign jones but now the McCaffrey deal may affect that. McCaffrey is a dynamic player but that’s a hell of a contract .
TheVOR
April 20, 2020 at 09:20 am
It's all they have! They Paid ridiculous money for that contract, and if it inflates the Jones deal, all the more reason to draft RB this year. Both of our RB's are out after this season assuming they don't get extensions.
We need a Bell Cow..
dobber
April 20, 2020 at 10:42 am
As we sit at the cusp of a new CBA and new media contracts, teams and agents are anticipating jumps in the cap. Why sign a contract extension now that fails to pay you anywhere close to a projected new market rate? If those jumps don't come or are not nearly as big as expected? Things get rough.
jannesbjornson
April 20, 2020 at 08:24 pm
The CAP will move down in 2021 relatively, even if the season resumes. Advertising revenues and futures deals are being renegotiated due to the uncertainty of the Covid-19 path of destruction. Sports Television is taking a magnum hit.
I would actually be cautious with all new deals.
murf7777
April 20, 2020 at 08:36 am
I will add that it will be an anomaly of running teams dominating the playoffs like last year, although you could argue KC and Ravens have running QB’s and that is what makes them dangerous and not their RB’s. The changes in the rules, and unless they change back, makes the NFL a passing league. We have already seen Gutey invest big in pass rushers and I think he will follow suit with OT’s. Smart GM’s will do just that and not throw big Capital at the RB position. Other then having a Franchise QB,to win a SB you need to have great lines, especially tackles and pass rushers.
jannesbjornson
April 20, 2020 at 08:31 pm
My money was on Jackson for the OT, then he moved up boards. I'll predict a move up if Jackson slides or Jefferson is within range; otherwise I would target Reagor at #30. The RT from Georgia has moved up. Do not see a defensive guy going in the first.
stockholder
April 20, 2020 at 09:24 pm
I do if it's Grant Delpit. SS He would be awesome in Pettine's defense.
jannesbjornson
April 20, 2020 at 11:28 pm
Where does Amos play?
stockholder
April 21, 2020 at 06:19 am
The problem was when Amos was out. They also pulled Goodson. He's the fit. Forget Greene etc.
Stroh
April 21, 2020 at 05:42 pm
Not a chance in hell they would draft Delpit if he's available.
Dzehren
April 20, 2020 at 09:13 am
Another question is will Dexter Williams make 53 man roster? Jamaal Williams will probably find a new home next year. MLF wants to run the ball.
GB should be looking for a RB that compliments Jones in the middle rounds in 2020 & 2021.
TarynsEyes
April 20, 2020 at 09:15 am
The Packers are not 'running' to the SB, Ever. They will not pay/over pay Jones. Jones situation is moot. He plays well he signs elsewhere. He plays to a lesser degree than last season or missing too many game s to injury he doesn't get resigned. This is it for Jones in GB.
TheVOR
April 20, 2020 at 09:28 am
And again, we pretty much agree here, if the McCaffery Contract is to inflate the Jones deal, it's a deal we simply cannot afford to make.
I always think about the "where would he end up", and you just know he'd end up in the Norse somewhere, probably Minnesota. Hard to say.
Totally agree, this is player they simply can't afford. David Bakhtiari has to be resigned, period.
I've also taken **** for saying this, but unless Kenny Clark is on some reasonable deal, he's also not going to be back in GB! They simply can't afford it, there is no cap here! Even if they marginally expand the cap, David Bakhtiar simply has to be the priority signing.
Would I like Kenny Clark back... eeehhh ya! At the right price, but I've been saying the same thing about Kenny Clark, don't think he's back after this season. Just don't..
Dzehren
April 20, 2020 at 09:39 am
The Vikings are gonna have to pay Dalvin Cook so I doubt Jones will be going to Minny. I see Jones getting near Melvin Gordon money ($8M annually with $13M guarnanteed.)
Jones injury history might also deflate his next contract.
ricky
April 20, 2020 at 09:35 am
The McCaffrey contract is an outlier, and he was re-signed for that amount because of unique circumstances in Carolina. Losing two "name" players the same year (Newton and Kuechley) left them with only McCaffrey to be the "face of the franchise." This is not the case with Jones. Add in that Jones has had some (relatively minor) knee injuries, and he is coming off a career year. As noted, it's very unlikely he'll repeat that success this year. If he does, then the Packers will lose him. If he doesn't, they'll still probably lose him, because some team will overpay for his potential. Re-sign Williams and draft another RB. It's just business, not personal.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 20, 2020 at 06:52 pm
Yes, this is what Carolina fans seem to think after reading comments on one of their blogs (catscratchreader). Though the fans usually defended the deal on football considerations.
Handsback
April 20, 2020 at 09:55 am
Two points I would like to make, and I'm no expert so take it for what it's worth.
First off Jones was really good last year. Maybe one of the top 5 RBs in the league. It's hard to say he would have done that every year he's been a Packer since there were several articles that discussed his new eating and training habits that Rodgers even noticed. So he improved himself over the off-season and made some money with his performance. He sure made the jump with his pass catching and blocking.
Second point, Packers will pick their highest rated player in the draft. We have heard they select the BPA, but their highest rated player makes more sense to me. IF, and that's a big IF, they have a RB with a first round grade along with a WR/OT/DE/ILB when they select in the 1st round, whatever player has the highest grade will be selected. Now the question we argue over is this RB or this WR isn't really good enough for a first round grade. Maybe, but we didn't put the board together so we have no idea. I'm one of a few people that see where Green Bay would select a RB in the first round.
Why you may ask? Because MLF wants that stud RB like Jones or even better if he can get him. It's the QB first and then the RB second that makes his offense go. I really believe that, so a difference maker at RB is key. Along with Jones's injury issues, consistent performance is needed at that position.
Now here is where my opinion kicks in so you can skip if you like. I think Taylor has a first round value. He's fast, and plays that fast on the field. He's run the off-tackle offense at WI and his size means extra yards after initial contact. I know nothing about injuries nor his character. So I could be very off-base but MLF does want a strong RB to charge his offense and less dependency on the QB.
Dzehren
April 20, 2020 at 10:18 am
Deandre Swift would be hard to pass up too. Maybe GUTE trades back and the extra pick allows for a RB?
taarons420
April 20, 2020 at 09:43 am
Signing Jones would be dumb.
Waste of money.
2020 Super Bowl:
SF - Matt Breida (ufa), Tevin Coleman (r3), raheem mostart (ufa), jeff wilson (ufa)
KC - Darwin Thompson (r6), Damien Williams (ufa), Leshawn McCoy (r2)
Two great offensive teams.
Super Bowl teams.
7 RB's.
2 drafted before r6.
Offenses make running backs.
Running backs do not make offenses.
If I was a GM, I would NEVER sign ANY RB to a 2nd contract.
EVER!
PhantomII
April 20, 2020 at 01:01 pm
Barry Sanders......
taarons420
April 20, 2020 at 03:09 pm
and immobile quarterbacks, and 250 lb ilb's with neckrolls and safeties who laid kill shots with the top of their own head and tight ends who can't run and actual grass and mud fields...
these are all things of the past.
the present game calls for a stable of cheap running backs.
Stroh
April 21, 2020 at 05:35 pm
Your not seriously even putting Aaron Jones in the same sentence w/ Barry Sanders are you?! Cuz that would be really dumb.
PatrickGB
April 20, 2020 at 10:10 am
I am a dyed in the wool Packer Homer. I would love to see every single good Packer player re-signed. But as others have noted the cap won’t allow it to happen. The draft and FA is the only way to reach the playoffs each and every year. The team must always plan for the future and that includes almost each and every position. So yes, draft his replacement.
Lphill
April 20, 2020 at 07:49 pm
The Pattiots never build for the future , rarely hold onto players long and you see how that worked out for them.
Bure9620
April 20, 2020 at 11:31 am
Agree with most on here as this is a gamble of an ext. Would not be surprised to see the Packers take a RB earlier than expected i.e. JT23 or Dobbins. The RB is just so devalued at this point. McCaffrey is more than a RB so Jones will have to be lined up all over the formation and ball out to get a big ext. from the Packers imo. Do not sign him now.
CheesyTex
April 20, 2020 at 11:52 am
No question Pack must add an RB -- WHO CAN ALSO CATCH THE BALL. Jones receiving was vital to the Packers success last year when WR corps came up short, and it proved the value of a receiving RB in LaFleur offense.
My Draft hope is for a RB that can catch or a WR that can run. An example here would be draft crush Joe Reed (Virginia) who should be available on day 3, and would not get in the way of filling other needs in earlier rounds.
Samson
April 20, 2020 at 03:44 pm
"My Draft hope is for a RB that can catch or a WR that can run."
Look no farther .... Antonio Gibson.
PeteK
April 20, 2020 at 12:33 pm
We have 3 sixth rounders and 2 seventh. That's were a RB and a QB possibly McDonald will be chosen.
PhantomII
April 20, 2020 at 12:59 pm
A.jones is an exceptional RB with a burst and good vision. He was a gem in the round taken. Pick # 30 best RB available with best vision and blocking skills in the backfield and great hands. You are going to get A. jones best in a contract year and Williams too. We need to use a second RB in the passing game. That was when we were really clicking. and our offense was deadly. If A. jones gets hurt our Championship possibilities go to zero quickly without a strong replacement.
stockholder
April 20, 2020 at 01:12 pm
I beginning to think they don't want to sign anybody with this virus. What happens to the packers if the season is cancelled. The packers might not have the cash/revenue to keep going. They still have to meet their obligations. We've seen other football leagues close because of it. So who will bail out the packers? If a worst case scenario happens? Are the packers financially strong enough?
Samson
April 20, 2020 at 03:40 pm
Normally, your comments would fall into the "hysterical column" but.... oil closed today at minus $37 a barrel. --- The world is changing fast & (so far) very little is appealing.
jannesbjornson
April 20, 2020 at 08:37 pm
They have hundreds of Millions in reserves.
Samson
April 20, 2020 at 03:36 pm
Nice article with equally intuitive comments.... But, the real key to this entire analysis is ....
"The former fifth-rounder" --- As much as I enjoy watching AJ with the ball, he won't be hard to replace.... In fact, Aaron Jones will have to think hard & long on if he can be "truly successful" in another offense other than MLF's in Green Bay.
PhantomII
April 20, 2020 at 07:02 pm
A.jones will NOT be easy to replace. I have watched this team for years and He's the best back in the last 15 yrs. easily. I don't care if they resign him or not but I want a replacement who plays lights out and you don't usually find those at the bottom of the draft. This coach wants to run the ball. Get a RB who does it at the same level or better. He may have been a 5th round pick but I think everyone here can agree he was worthy of a 3rd.
WMA
April 20, 2020 at 04:35 pm
May want to look for a replacement in round 4 or 5, Need to get a OT & WR with the picks 1 & 2 (or 2 & 2 if trade down) unless there is a much higher rated player available. Rounds 3-5 bpa of RB, ILB, DL, Guard. Invest in the offensive line - top 5 offensive line makes QB, RB and WRs better.
bsmoser
April 20, 2020 at 07:35 pm
People/fans, we & every team must have balance, throwing or air show game or not!! And we have an elite really back, yes probably a top 5 or 6, & we need to keep him! We should be in serious talks of an extension w/our running back, now!! GB doesn't need to draft another RB, we have a really good tandem, w/a backup still learning that I wouldn't pull the plug on just yet. They have other concerns, ILB, DL, OL/T & WR, in that order. Thanks, Go Pac Go.
stockholder
April 20, 2020 at 09:20 pm
ILB ? Doubt Queen and Murray make it to #30. But if Pettine gets Guteys ear. Look for Grant Deipit over a.Wr. And I would take him before any DT In this draft class. Pettine just has had to many problems with the back-up safeties. This guy just isn't good, he explosive. And he loves playing close to the line. Jones is still climbing, Not bad for a guy that projects to Guard. Wr still is the experts pick.
Stroh
April 20, 2020 at 09:02 pm
If Jones wants over 8M per year, forget about it and find his replacement this draft or next. DO NOT PAY a RB elite money. Its a bad investment! And I'm not sure I Would even go that high TBH.
CoachDino
April 20, 2020 at 09:30 pm
Jones is a special back - He just outplayed his budget with the Packers. IMO..He should sign somewhere else for money..He deserves it. Probably his only chance while at the top of his game. There's guys out there in rds 4 & 5 that can compete for #2 this year. Lets see what Lafleur goes for... The Packers could use a few different styles that fit the scheme. Speed - Power - Rec. Would you take Antonio Gibson in the 3rd. Might be there. Might not be there for your 4th. The Packers pick in each round is basically the worst. Statistically Gutes has been given assets that requires his picks to be good decisions just to have an average draft. How does he get the odds in his favor?
Stroh
April 21, 2020 at 05:46 pm
Jones is not special. He's good, really good, but far from special. He should accept a 4 yr 6M per yr contact and be happy. If he wants much more, Forget about it and find a replacement this draft or next.
Dragon5
April 20, 2020 at 10:41 pm
solution:
11LP CAM AKERS
Rd 3
Since'61
April 21, 2020 at 10:20 am
Jones was drafted in the 5th round. He proves that there is no reason to draft an RB in an early round.
Packers should draft, WR-1, OL-2, WR-3, RB -4, after that depth for DL, ILB, &DB. Maybe another WR on day 3.
IMO, this needs to be an offense first draft. We have focused on defense first for much too long. Rodgers needs weapons at WR and RBs to keep the chains moving. It can’t all be on Rodgers at this point in his career. Stay well. Thanks, Since ‘61