Playoff Push: What the Packers need to start, stop, and keep doing
The Green Bay Packers are gearing up for a playoff push in a strong spot and some clear areas to keep building on, start doing better, and completely rethink.
After defeating the Chicago Bears 20-19 in a week 11 game with massive playoff implications, the Packers are 7-3 and have boosted their playoff chances to 80%.
On a high note, quarterback Jordan Love is returning to the form we saw in the back half of last season, and while there was another interception this past week, he’s back to making some diabolical throws now that the injured leg doesn’t seem to be nagging as much.
Also encouraging from week 11 is star edge rusher Rashan Gary getting back in the sack column and applying more pressure in recent weeks. While Brenton Cox flashed in his first bout in an expanded role, the struggling Lukas Van Ness has now started displaying counter-pass rush moves, signifying there might still be life in the first rounder yet!
However, the picture isn’t all pretty, and challenging games are ahead. The health of star cornerback Jaire Alexander and the lackluster pass rush are the biggest concerns. At the same time, Jeff Hafley has extended long leashes to players who should probably be getting more acquainted with the sidelines.
Should the Packers string together a strong push to end the season, first, they need to…
Keep Feeding Josh Jacobs Early and Often
In past seasons, Matt LaFleur has frustratingly abandoned the run throughout games, generally resulting in the offense falling flat for a few quarters. But after what Josh Jacobs has produced so far, and should the Packers' offense keep climbing back, it’s imperative that it be an old-LaFleur error that he’s left in the past.
After 11 weeks, the Packers offense owns the second-highest explosive play rate on early downs in the NFL (12.8%), largely due to Jacobs' contributions. Of all running backs with at least 150 carries, Jacobs is good for the seventh-highest explosive run rate (10.8%), and his 640 yards after contact are second most in the NFL. He's also compiled 22 carries of 10+ yards, tied for third-most.
Jacobs has seemingly been the perfect fit for a LaFleur scheme that deploys a high number of zone and gap run schemes, as only six running backs have picked up more first downs than Jacobs' 40. Furthermore, his 4.8 yards per carry is the fifth most of running backs with at least 150 carries.
Jacobs is giving the Packers exactly what they signed up for when deciding to move off Aaron Jones before the season. He's been every bit of the punishing bruiser with elite vision, balance, and bounce that he's been in past All-Pro campaigns.
While Jacobs will remain a vital piece to the offense and prevent defenses from sitting back in coverage, the compliment to that is for Love and Co to…
Start Regaining Consistency in the Passing Attack
After 11 weeks, the Packers, Panthers, and Titans are the only teams with just two receivers with 30+ catches and no receivers with 40+ catches. It's not exactly great company and certainly not where anyone thought this talented group would be to this point.
Yes, Love is spreading the ball around, and yes, the few games with Malik Willis resulted in fewer pass attempts, even though they were very efficient. But what hasn't happened is the consistency piece in the pass game. It's great that the Packers can keep defenses off balance by having four or five players who could go off any given Sunday, but even that's not happening.
Since week five, the Packers have only had two games with at least two receivers or tight ends racking up four or more receptions. What's become the trend is numerous of the Packers' top pass catchers are going silent for a majority of games while only one, maybe two, of them is more involved.
Christian Watson, for example, is just now starting to see his usage tick up after exploding against the Bears with four catches and 150 yards. It marks only the second time this season he's tallied at least four catches despite having created the most separation of any receiver over the past month, zero drops to his credit, and posting an elite PFF grade (at least 90.0) at every depth of target. He's also increased his contested catch rate to 80% on the season, good for third best in the NFL of receivers with at least 20 catches.
Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs are right behind Watson in contested catch rate, and Reed even owns a league-best 146.0 passer rating when targeted. However, Reed has only had two catches in three of the last four games after a major breakout to start the season.
Even Tucker Kraft has fallen victim to inconsistencies in the pass attack, resulting in five games with two or fewer catches, including being blanked against the Bears.
This could all be a symptom of Love's injury resulting in him missing on some throws or the considerable number of drops the Packers have had this season. Still, when Green Bay has successfully spread the ball around in past years, there's generally always been consistency at the top. That's when they've been most dangerous and what they need to get back to.
As important as it will be for the offense to take off in the playoff push, it will be equally as critical for Jeff Hafley to...
Stop Holding Back Young Talent Behind Bad Starters
The Packers are hitting the home stretch of the season; there’s no more time to waste with starters not performing to expectations. At this point, if someone’s play is not cutting it, and other players are making greater impacts, there’s no sound reasoning to keep giving the lesser players more snaps.
To that, it’s time the Packers brass swallow their pride and come to terms with Quay Walker’s first-round “bust” status and Keisean Nixon’s head-scratching $18 million dollar contract being a big misfire.
It’s been evident since week one, and even dating back to last season, that Quay Walker is simply not cut out for a starting role. Unfortunately, that sentiment is reaffirmed every week. However, he is not seeing any decrease in snaps as backups Eric Wilson and Edgerrin Cooper exude far superior play when given opportunities.
Quay currently ranks 60th out of 63 linebackers with at least 300 snaps in PFF's defensive grades, and watching him on game day makes sense. He does not attack run lanes with urgency, gets too easily swallowed up by blockers, and remains abysmal in pass coverage. He also ranks 47th among linebackers in defensive stops (20), indicating he's providing minimal value at best against the run.
The same goes for cornerback Keisean Nixon. Nixon assumed more outside cornerback duties to help fill the void of Alexander, and it simply has not gone well. So be it; that’s not his primary position. But in the process, he continues to earn starts while Carrington Valentine, arguably their most reliable corner last season, has hardly seen the field until recently.
Nixon has registered a lowly 50.9 PFF grade in coverage this season and owns a 112.2 passer rating against. Valentine, for context, filling in top cornerback duties last season held quarterbacks to only an 84.1 passer rating against and one touchdown allowed. Yet he's fourth among Packers corners in snaps this season despite ongoing struggles from Nixon and Eric Stokes. Valentine is also allowing the second-fewest yards per snap of all cornerbacks with at least as many as his 111 coverage snaps this season. Thankfully, his snaps are increasing, and he's played more snaps in November than he did the entire season before.
Move Nixon back to his regular slot duties, and the results are still underwhelming and, in this case, coming at the cost of rookie safety Javon Bullard from assuming an expanded role as the nickel, where he’s atleast been a welcomed addition to the run defense.
To make matters worse, the two-time All-Pro returner only has 13 returns this season, tracking for by far the lowest since he emerged as a top returner in the NFL. The new kickoff rules have limited returns in a drastic way this season, taking away Nixon’s strongest ability. Even so, he’s not even being used as the primary return man. So if he’s not playing well at corner, after being picked apart last season, too, and not returning many kicks or punts, maybe his contract wasn’t the best decision in hindsight.
It's not too late for the Packers to give Cooper, Wilson, Valentine, and Bullard more opportunities. Seemingly, coaches are finally coming to terms with the situation, as all have seen increased chances as the season progresses. The next big step is to see how the defense looks when completely taking Quay and Nixon off the field a bit more.
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Based in Seattle, Austin's roots are in Wisconsin and he bleeds Green & Gold. He also currently writes for Lombardi Ave and has been featured on various Packers podcasts. Follow him on Twitter at @AustinKrueger_.
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Comments (35)
LLCHESTY
November 20, 2024 at 12:22 pm
Wilson isn't young but getting him more snaps in passing situations this week would be a great start. The PFF grades echo what my eyes have seen; 49.5 for Quay, 78.5 for Eric Wilson.
Coldworld
November 20, 2024 at 03:41 pm
Who cares if he’s not young? Worry about how players are playing now first, the future second. Its not like Wilson has big mileage or is do old he’s likely to fall off the cliff next year. To me the other thing about Wilson is that the rest of the unit seem to function better when he’s in too. I think that gets overlooked
LLCHESTY
November 20, 2024 at 06:35 pm
The headline of that part of the article was let the young talent play.
GregC
November 20, 2024 at 01:02 pm
I don't see the point of judging passing offense by comparing the production of the top two receivers on each team. All that matters is their production AS A UNIT. By that measure, the Packers are sitting right near the middle of the league at #15, but if you look at yards per attempt, they are tied for fourth, trailing only the Lions, Ravens, and 49ers. This stat is noteworthy because it eliminates the downward pull of the Malik Willis games on their season yardage total. Even with Wilis, their yards per attempt was still high. They just didn't have as many attempts. So the passing offense is still giving us a lot of bang for our buck in spite of it looking disjointed at times.
Leatherhead
November 20, 2024 at 01:40 pm
Greg, you're on the right track, IMO. It's about what we do as a team. And although some alternative measures are valid, I think the best measure is "How many TDs?" Because isn't that, ultimately, the reason that you're passing the ball at all? Because you want to score some points instead of just grinding grass?
So, how many TDs? The four teams with the most passing TDs are the Bengals(27), Ravens, Bucs, and Lions(22). Next is Green Bay and the Purple with 19. The Bengals and Ravens have each played 11 games. In essence, we're better than the #5 ranking. Despite the drops, despite the bad throws, despite the redzone failures, we're very good at passing our way into the endzone overall. You might even consider Top 5 as........elite?
Yards per attempt? That's a core stat, IMO. It's a main measure for RBs. When your QB throws the ball, and you adjust for sacks and penalties, how many yards are you getting, on average, each time.
For as long as I can remember, 7.0 yards/attempt is considered respectable. The Packers DOUBLED that last week. I mean, you throw 17 passes, you get sacked once, and you end up with 250ish yards in the air. That's a pretty good day of work, IMO.
I'd be mightily inclined to throw it to Reed, Doubs, Kraft,and Watson when I wasn't getting the ball to Jacobs or his really good backups. Everybody else would have to fight for scraps. These are the guys who have moved the chains and scored points for us. Mostly,they've done a good job of taking care of the ball, and catching it when it's thrown to them.
HarryHodag
November 20, 2024 at 02:05 pm
The endless pursuit of stats for analysis is continuing to distort what actually is happening on the field.
One of the aspects of MLF's offense is spreading the attack to a multitude of players. Jayden Reed might have only two catches but I will bet one of them is a game changer. C. Watson is finally starting to show why he was a second round pick. He had only four catches(150 yards) against the Bears, but if you take any of those four catches away the Packers might lose the game. Kraft, in Musgrave's absence, has picked up some key catches and now should be considered the number one tight end. Jacobs has proven a reliable pass catcher. I could name others but the COLLECTIVE total is what matters.
I chuckle at the rough criticism of Love for his interceptions but little is said he's the one throwing all those completions as well.
In the end it's who wins the game. I don't care who has the numbers as long as it leads to...victory!
AustinKrueger
November 20, 2024 at 03:23 pm
I totally hear the point of "production as a unit," but that does not take away from the fact that there's been very little consistency. Why are the Packers barely beating struggling teams while the Lions, for example, are running up the score on lesser teams as true alpha dogs do? And yes, a win is a win, but why, with all the talent, are they barely scraping by?
Personally, I think a big part of it is the fact that there's been no real consistency in the passing game. Hence, GB has the 6th fewest completions per game. Why are Reed, Watson and Doubs the clear cut WRs who are doing the most but have been completely hit or miss in production all season? When stacked up to seasons past, they are behind the norm of receiver output to this point. It's mostly due to the fact that 2-3 of the top guys are barely involved most of a game, and the Packers top weekly receiver only has 4-5 catches. It's like past seasons where Aaron Jones would dominate the first quarter then go missing for the next 2 quarters.
It's been more noticeable as weeks have gone on. Pack only have .7 passing touchdowns per game over the last 3 games. The point here is that, with more consistency focusing on the players who are dominating when given the chance, this offense should really take off again.
crayzpackfan
November 20, 2024 at 01:03 pm
I think we need to add Kenny to this list. His football mileage has left him long in the tooth. I'm not a fan of Slayton either. Maybe they should try moving LVN inside and roster Ford for running plays and goal line packages and see if that works. If LVN doesn't work out after a fair opportunity inside, then perhaps the bust tag might be more valid. Let's also see what Hopper can provide along with Cooper and Wilson? I wouldn't even mind seeing what Rochell can do at CB. Kalen King? Why not? JA is usually unavailable. Ballentine is terrible. Nixon seemingly has a neck brace on and can't turn his head to look for the ball. Of course, we don't want to do this all at once. The game shouldn't resemble a science project. Give them a larger role in practices. Rotate them in for 10 snaps a game and monitor any progress both with the individual and the team. Our front nine I don't think is being represented by the best players in 3-5 spots. Leave the safety room alone though. ;)
Leatherhead
November 20, 2024 at 01:50 pm
Well, you're right about JA rarely being available.
Pretty much everything else needs to be thought through a little more.
We're 7-3, despite everything. And you want to experiment right when the real playoff fight starts? No.
On November 21st, 2010, the Packers won and went to 7-3. Then, they lost 3 out of the next 4, to go 8-6. Then they won the last two games of the season to squeeze into the #6 playoff seed.
All these things you'd like to see? The coaches have seen, in practices. That's why you don't see them in the game.
Bitternotsour
November 20, 2024 at 02:04 pm
in their world view the coaches would have to be practicing willful negligence and sabotaging their own chances of winning. for what reason? they see the game tape in depth. they run the damn practices. why would they trot out an inferior player? for what possible reason?
LLCHESTY
November 20, 2024 at 06:41 pm
"the coaches would have to be practicing willful negligence and sabotaging their own chances"
It's getting to that point with Walker. I'm sure his teammates have noticed and grumbling leads to dissension.
crayzpackfan
November 20, 2024 at 02:45 pm
LH
Your reply
"Well, you're right about JA rarely being available.
Pretty much everything else needs to be thought through a little more."
So you don't think Kenny Clark is under performing?
You think LVN is doing just fine at his current position?
You don't see Walker as a weak link?
You don't see our CB room as inferior?
You actually disagree with me and think the safety room "shouldn't" be left alone?
You said in your reply to me
"We're 7-3, despite everything. And you want to experiment right when the real playoff fight starts? No."
What I actually said in my origial post.
"Of course, we don't want to do this all at once. The game shouldn't resemble a science project."
I think you just like disagreeing with a certain few on here for whatever reason. That's fine.
To be honest, I actually agree with you more times than not. At any rate, we'll see where this goes. ;)
Leatherhead
November 20, 2024 at 03:36 pm
'''I think you just like disagreeing""
I'm not going to agree with things that are wrong. And when you ask questions like "You don't see our CB room as inferior?", I'd need to know "Inferior to whom?" And then I'd need solid, in depth knowledge of the cornerback rooms of the other 31 teams before I could draw any kind of comparison.
Kenny Clark is underperforming? Compared to? The younger Kenny Clark? The other 100-125 starting linemen in the league?
Sorry if I ruffled you. It was not my intention.
Coldworld
November 20, 2024 at 03:48 pm
Clark is underperforming against expectations and contract. I don’t think there’s a basis for disputing that, as you seem to be. I do think it’s fair to ask why?
I wish I knew, but I’m starting to think it’s part what the scheme is asking of him and, significantly, the impact of the toe problems. People tend to overlook how significantly some toe issues can impact play. Then there is the wider issue of underperformance along the DL, certainly no one has obviously exceeded expectations. Again, I don’t have the answers, but I do see the issues.
crayzpackfan
November 20, 2024 at 04:04 pm
LH
I'm not ruffled whether intended or not. It's also your complete and absolute right to not answer my questions. I'll leave it at that.
LLCHESTY
November 20, 2024 at 06:43 pm
"I'm not going to agree with things that are wrong."
I'm sure you agree with yourself all the time. 😉
Bearmeat
November 20, 2024 at 01:47 pm
I would agree with Crazy Pack fan. Kenny has played poorly. Toe or not. So has Gary. The fact is that we are cheering 5 pressures and 1 sack against what has been one of the worst O Lines in the game. That shows you how bad it's gotten.
And I don't think Quay or Nixon are going anywhere. They should be benched, But they won't be. That's just how the Packers have rolled for decades. And for the most part it is the right decision. Pick your guys and have faith in them and they'll reward you more often than if everyone knows you will pull the rug out the second they have a few bad days. But the frustrating side of that is that EVERYONE around them can see that Walker, Clark, Gary, Stokes and Nixon have been bad to terrible and yet, they can't or won't.
13TimeChamps
November 20, 2024 at 02:04 pm
While I don't dispute the quality of play from the players mentioned, one also can't dispute that the team is 7-3 with the 10th best rated scoring defense. I find it hard to believe that there will be wholesale changes being made.
With that being said, the head scratcher for me is Quay Walker, especially when there seems to be a reliable replacement currently on the roster. After 3 seasons, where one was drafted shouldn't be a factor anymore.
Bitternotsour
November 20, 2024 at 02:07 pm
We're cheering a 7-3 record that but for some missed field goals could be 9-1. We recognize the sum of the parts is the product on the field, and the product on the field in this first ten games is on the upswing. They didn't win their 7th game last year until the 3rd week of December. It's still November. Try to keep perspective.
LLCHESTY
November 20, 2024 at 06:47 pm
We've also had plenty of opportunities to see problems in the regular season lead to season ending playoff losses because they weren't corrected.
Leatherhead
November 20, 2024 at 07:21 pm
Playoffs? Playoffs? You've got to be kidding me. Playoffs?
---Jim Mora
You've got to make the playoffs first, and after that, it's about who's healthy, who's playing well, the bounce of the ball, an official's call.
In 2010, we were 7-3. Then we lost 3 of our next 4 and went to 8-6. We won our last two in and squeezed into the final playoff spot. Then we put it together in the playoffs. It could easily happen again.
We've lost playoff games for several reasons. Usually because we don't put enough points on the board.
Wisma Packer
November 20, 2024 at 08:17 pm
"We've lost playoff games for several reasons. Usually because we don't put enough points on the board"
Hmmm... I thought that if we don't put enough points we would ALWAYS lose...
I guess you're lumping golf into this... 😁😁😁
Bitternotsour
November 21, 2024 at 02:50 pm
If you score more than 30 you've put enough points on the board. It's defensive fail at that point.
LLCHESTY
November 21, 2024 at 01:57 pm
Bringing up a season from 14 years ago isn't the win you think it is. There are plenty of RECENT seasons where problems in the regular season also cost them in the playoffs. Would anyone be surprised if they lost in the playoffs because they had very little pass rush and a playoff caliber QB picked them apart?
Packerpasty
November 20, 2024 at 05:07 pm
sometimes I wonder if Clark even played, never hear his name called very often....
canadapacker
November 20, 2024 at 02:57 pm
While Clark and Gary have not played well - perhaps some of that is because Hafley has not been as creative as some other DC's around the league. When you have a mobile QB such as we faced last year - perhaps a guy like Gary with his wheels should be spying and tracking them down - this rush rush rush and then complaining about the lack of production might be because other teams scheme to shut him down. Flores Spags etc seem to be more creative - not just picking something like cover 2 etc that Hafley does when he plays soft with a lead. Our middle guys especially by relying too much on Walker which takes better guys off the field.
Tundraboy
November 20, 2024 at 03:10 pm
And that 7-3 record could have been worse, we did get some breaks here and there. So keep tempting fate by playing Walker and Nixon? No thanks
NFLfan
November 20, 2024 at 03:52 pm
Sometimes I think the Brass has a hard time moving on from guys that have big contracts or were first rounders.,
LVN, Quay, Nixon, Gary, Clark, Alexander.
jannesbjornson
November 20, 2024 at 04:20 pm
It may expose their mistakes, "wee like our guys" bullshit. Douglas again tore it up for Buffalo, making Key Plays in the match vs K.C. We are still waiting for the defenders of this move who claim it may Save a couple coins in the CAP purse, to reappear. Hopper is still sitting, for some reason and Lloyd has yet to play a down. Without Jaire on the 1:1 s they are relegated to soft zones with Nixon on the perimeter along with Valentine, neither are playmakers
Stokes may as well be released.
Coldworld
November 20, 2024 at 03:57 pm
We need to reward play, good or bad, not deny it. Unless we do, we will never have the best team out there. We finally reallocated Wick’s opportunities to Watson, and crucially, our game plan incorporated Watson-friendly concepts as a result. We appear to have done it with Stokes.
We need to do the same with Walker and Eric Wilson and with Valentine over Nixon (outside). I’d make an argument for Myers too, but that’s more contentious and muddied by the loss of Morgan for a while. Who knows, the changes might actually spur improvement in the player demoted. Certainly, it should improve us in the short term, and that needs to be the only lodestone at this point.
crayzpackfan
November 20, 2024 at 04:14 pm
Exactly. If a car engine is making a noise, you don't replace the whole engine, you just replace the part(s) that is/are bad. It is my belief that the DL has a bad part or two as well as the LB and CB room. Being 7-3 doesn't necessarily mean our engine is running top notch, it just means it ran better (sometimes barely better) against cars with worse engine problems.
The Jets or the Jags on the other hand? Well, they need to start shopping for a whole new car as an example.
13TimeChamps
November 20, 2024 at 04:52 pm
Thankfully, someone is keeping track of our lodestones. It's a very underappreciated quality in the overall scheme of things.
jlc1
November 20, 2024 at 04:36 pm
As has been noted on this site in a number of places one thing that needs to happen is that Kenny Clark has to do more than just put his uniform on every Sunday.
Heyjoe414
November 21, 2024 at 07:23 am
I didn't realize that Walker and Nixon were playing this poorly. There are clearly better players sitting on the bench. And it's not just that there are better players than Walker and Nixon. Walker and Nixon are liabilities on defense. Benching them would very likely result in a better defense, and possibly wake these guys up to the fact that they need to start playing better. And how can they let Cooper sit? The guy is electric out there.
I'm also a little confused as to why Reed is returning punts. It puts one of their best receivers at risk. Second, Nixon is the better returner.
Leatherhead
November 21, 2024 at 08:26 am
Walker is the leading tackler on the team, and Nixon is 6th. They aren't playing that poorly, there aren't better players on the bench. Benching them would not improve the defense;