Packers vs Lions: Gameday Preview - 2023 Week 4

The Packers have been tied for first place in the NFC North after every week so far this year. They've been tied with the Lions. Tonight, the tie gets broken. What will determine the outcome? 

The last time the Packers played the Lions, Detroit was killing Green Bay's dream of a magic playoff win by ending the Packers 4-game win streak with 20-14 victory. It was the Lions 3rd straight win in the series and completed their 3rd sweep of the Packers in the last 6 seasons.

Since then, both teams have made changes. The Packers have a new quarterback and cleaned out all their veteran pass catchers. Meanwhile, the Lions look like they have one of the best draft classes in recent memory, with multiple contributor on each side of the ball.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

Jordan Love is hot.

He was productive in his first two games, but showed real command and leadership in last week's exhilarating 4th quarter comeback. He led the team to three late scores (and a two point conversion) against a good, physical defense despite missing half of his offensive line, his top running threat, and his best deep threat.

Tonight, it looks like Aaron Jones and Christian Watson will be available, as least for limited snaps. While that will provide a big boost to the offense, but the offensive line is running on fumes. David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins are both out and Zach Tom is questionable. If the line can't function tonight, the Packers will have a really hard time.

Detroit's defense is not the pushover it used to be.

Alim McNeill and Benito Jones are a pair of big run-stuffing defensive tackles that can really clog the middle. Josh Myers and Royce Newman are going to have their hands full.

On the edge, Aidan Hutchinson is a beast. After getting 9.5 sacks en route to All Rookie team honors last year, Hutchinson is fresh off an impressive 2 sack performance against the Falcons last week and leads the NFL with 19 pressures through 3 weeks. The Packers battered offensive tackles (whoever they may be) will also have their hands full trying to slow him down.

The Lions defense has also been bolstered by a couple impressive rookies. Linebacker Jack Campbell and safety-nickel Brian Branch have proven versatile and effective. Campbell came out of college with a physical, run-stuffing background, but has flashed in pass rushing situations. Meanwhile Brian Branch, one of the draft's most surprising fallers as the consensus top safety, has lined up all over the secondary and made his presence felt.

The Packers will need to account for the Lions defensive playmakers, but without stable blocking, that could be a challenge. 

Matt LaFleur's game plan did a good job of spreading the ball around last week, throwing short and long, down the middle and outside the numbers. LaFleur will need to monitor his blocking closely to adapt his offensive play-calling throughout the game.

Luke Musgrave, Jayden Reed, and maybe even Aaron Jones will be important secondary receiving options that need to stress the Lions coverage horizontally while Christian Watson stretches the defense vertically.

That is, of course, provided they can all suit up.

If they can't, Green Bay may really struggle to establish the run or spread the Lions defensive backfield, which could doom this game.

WHEN THE PACKERS ARE ON DEFENSE

Everyone seems to hate Joe Barry, but the Packers defense really hasn't been that bad this year. Outside of the 4th quarter in Atlanta, this unit has been pretty solid, giving up less than 20 points per game.

Now, the Packers defense faces their biggest test of the season with the media-darling Lions coming to town on a short week.

The Detroit offense hasn't started off as a hot as they did last year, but they've been a productive unit again. They've also been a balanced unit, The Lions rank 7th in passing yards (having passed for at least 240 yards each game) and 11th in rushing yards (and rushed for over 100 yards in each game).

Jared Goff has been efficient and effective this year, spreading the ball around to a strong trio of receivers, Pro Bowler Amon-Ra St. Brown and solid 2nd and 3rd options in Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond. Luckily for the Packers, speed merchant Jameson Williams is suspended for Detroit.

The big story of the Lions passing game this year, though, has been a couple more rookies.

Tight end Sam LaPorta is on pace for a historic rookie season (if you think Luke Musgrave has been productive as a rookie tight end, LaPorta has 50% more yards). Rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been the team's best runner and also ranks third on the team in receptions.

Look for Detroit to play a wide open, spread offense that will challenge the Packers banged up defense. De'Vondre Campbell is out with an ankle injury, which will make it harder for the Packers to stop the run and chase Gibbs on outlet passes. Quay Walker is going to need to be active tonight for the Packers to keep up. Jaire Alexander is questionable with a back injury. Even if he plays, he likely won't be full speed - back injuries are really tough on defensive backs who need to back pedal, turn, and pivot to stay with receivers. The Green Bay defense will need guys like Rasul Douglas and Darnell Savage (who is quietly putting together a pretty solid season), to pick up the slack.

Coverage gets easier with a strong pass rush. After Rashan Gary's big game last week, the Packers will lean on him even more to create pressure and throw the Lions offense off track. He may find success against a Detroit line with injuries of its own. Starting right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai is out for tonight, while left guard Jonah Jackson is questionable. Lions starting left tackle Taylor Decker is questionable tonight and his backup (Matt Nelson) is out. If Decker can't go, the Lions will have to do a lot of shuffling, which could give the Packers an edge in the trenches. On top of it all, Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow has been dealing with a toe injury. He's slated to play, but if it flares up, the Lions would really be in trouble with the way the Packers linemen have been playing this year.  

This matchup could very well come down to how healthy the Lions offensive line is.

OTHER NOTES

Detroit has turned the ball over every game (2 interceptions and 3 fumbles lost), so the Packers should be attacking the ball in what looks like a challenging matchup for their defense.

The Lions rank 10th in opponent starting field position, so this would be a great week for Keisean Nixon to break off his first game-tilting return of the season.

FINAL THOUGHTS

This is not the same old Lions. GM Brad Holmes has stocked both sides of the ball with young talent and, under the leadership of a veteran quarterback, they have meshed well. They're playing with swagger after knocking off the defending champion Chiefs in Arrowhead to start the season, and riding a 3-game win streak against the Packers.

Don't look for them to lay down, this has become their biggest rivalry over the years and they come hard.

The Packers, meanwhile, are dealing with a lot of injuries, but have confidence and momentum of their own.

Turnovers could loom large, as could the carryover excitement of the home crowd. However, unless the Packers offensive line, missing their best starters, plays some kind of inspired ball against a strong Lions front, this game looks like it could go to the bad guys.

Packers 20, Lions 24

 

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Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.

Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.

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Comments (26)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
mrtundra's picture

September 28, 2023 at 07:08 am

No way you picked the Lions over the Packers, in Lambeau! That would be 4 straight wins for the Lions! Not happening. Packers 24 Lions 17. Fixed that for you.

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Packerpasty's picture

September 28, 2023 at 09:32 am

Lions are a tough pick most outlets are picking them to win...theres this from CBS.." For two quarters of every game, Jordan Love plays like he's going to be the next Aaron Rodgers. But then you have the other two quarters, where Love plays like someone who is thinking about retiring from football to raise alpacas on a farm in South America." and that Goff for what ever reason turns into Joe Montana whenever he plays the Pack...its going to be a tough game, lets see if the Pack are not "soft" when the Lions roll in tonight...

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Packerpasty's picture

September 28, 2023 at 05:43 pm

one pundit says he has been playing like shit for most of the three games and is lucky with the penalties and hasn't been picked off more with his tight window throws that dont lead the WR...we will see who's right in a couple of hours..

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Cheezehead72's picture

September 28, 2023 at 09:48 am

I am not so sure. I would like to put a bet on this game but I just do not know which team to pick. My heart is telling me to run away and not look back.

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BruceIrons's picture

September 28, 2023 at 12:43 pm

I hope you're right!

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TxFred's picture

September 28, 2023 at 08:17 am

This will be a good test for the young, talented team. The biggest challenge will be our OLine. If they can't open holes & keep them open for the backs to get through, them the Lions defense will pin their ears back & make JL passing a living hell. When that happens (and not if) it will make for very long night on National TV. GPG!!!!

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pantz_bURp's picture

September 28, 2023 at 08:35 am

Hell no Bruce! We (they, da PACK), are gonna gnaw on their chankles till they turn Honobubu blue.

The order will be restored tonight!

Campbell's tomato soup and grilled cheese sandwiches are on the menu at high noon for me. I made sure I will have more grilled cheese sandwiches than tomato soup.

*Special teams and Defense will be ready this game.

Love and inflatulation,

Burp

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Coldworld's picture

September 28, 2023 at 09:19 am

This is a great test of our coaches. The talent is raw but present on O, the pieces they’re on D. So far, we’ve been heavily out-coached by Campbell. We should know what doesn’t work, let’s see if they have learned or if we just make the same mistakes on both sides of the ball.

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LambeauPlain's picture

September 28, 2023 at 09:48 am

Apologize for the rant, but...

One test of coaching is playing the best players in the game tonight. MLF's oft mentioned bromide "we will play the best 5 on the OL." is empty to me. I am beginning to believe "best" to him is not the most talented and effective run and pass blockers. Rather, the "best" must mean guys with the most experience, the greatest effort, best leaders in the locker room.

Bakht will not play again. His knee must be totally shot or he is totally checking out.

After tonight, the Packers will play only ONE game in 23 days. Conceivably, David could miss the Raiders game and take almost a month off to rest his fragile, nagging knee after the Lions. I don't think DB is a coupon clipper...but he is starting to show he has the Marty Bennett, Z Smith disease.

And he won't retire...Packers could claw back a big chunk of his bonus. Maybe he is just wants to rest his knee, waiting to be cut or traded next year leaving the Packers with his pockets stuffed with cash. And sign or take a trade to the Jets to reunite with his buddy.

Tom should be inside at C or G where the OL is weak. Instead he plays T, where the OL is strong and has depth. Nijman is decidedly a better run and pass blocker than Newman, Myers, JRJ, & Rhyan. MLF needs to decide who is the best of those 3 or 4 and play the best 2 with Tom. And at C, Tom would create the most synergies working with the other 2. Dang! Plug the hole, Matt!

"We will play the best 5"... someday. Frustrating.

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Cheezehead72's picture

September 28, 2023 at 09:58 am

I would love to see the Packers trade Bakhtiari before the deadline if they can. He is doing us no good not playing. I would prefer they trade him to a team that plays on turf but I say trade him to whoever for what ever you can get.

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pantz_bURp's picture

September 28, 2023 at 10:59 am

Yes, at the very least...have him hand out the Game Day programs to incoming fans at all home games (if not playing).

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LambeauPlain's picture

September 28, 2023 at 09:21 am

"Outside of the 4th quarter in Atlanta, this unit has been pretty solid, giving up less than 20 points per game."

Let's pump the brakes here a bit Bruce. Through 3 games, the Packers have played 3 of the 5 lowest scoring Teams: Bares 2nd lowest, Saints 3rd, Falcons 5th lowest. These teams have not been prolific point producers.

Even then, the Packers D has shown ability to play "bend and break D"...both 4th quarters with the game on the line. It is not the talent on the D failing but the schemes Barry employs in critical situations.

And I do not hate Joe Barry. He is simply in the wrong job. A Peter Principle at work rising to the level of incompetence.

What he is producing with the talent provided him is far below expectations...what DC has ever had so many good individual players? The challenge is to mold the talent into a team...create synergies...make the sum of the team greater than the total of the players.

Barry seems to waste synergies for his schemes.

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Since'61's picture

September 28, 2023 at 10:04 am

"What DC has ever had so many good individual players? Phil Bengston, Lombardi's DC has 6 HOF players:
Willie Davis, Henry Jordan, Ray Nitschke, Dave Robinson, Herb Adderley, Willie Wood. The remainder of the defensive starters weren't bad either. Thanks, Since '61

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LambeauPlain's picture

September 28, 2023 at 10:29 am

Thanks for the thumbs down. You answered my poorly worded question correctly.

I should have posed what I have previously: "what DC has had more talent including 7 or more first round draft choices to coach with such underwhelming results?

There have been plenty of DCs with more talent than Barry who met and exceeded expectations. Fritz Schumer's #1 rated defense was one of the best...and of course there was Buddy Ball Chicago.

Barry has yet to sniff that rarified air.

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Esquetoi's picture

September 28, 2023 at 01:37 pm

I still rue having a Henry Jordan autograph my dad got for me...AND losing track of it within a month. AAAARRRRRGGGHHH!

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Packerpasty's picture

September 28, 2023 at 05:46 pm

if the Lions kick ass tonight there will be plenty of brake pumping....hopefully it wont happen, I hate hear "but its a young team" excuse all over again....MLF better have them ready to play hard..

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Since'61's picture

September 28, 2023 at 10:10 am

As usual this game will be decided in the trenches on the LOS. Win the LOS on both sides of the ball and the Packers will take the game. The DL should be able to stop the Lions ground game and make them one-dimensional which forces the Lions offense to play to the Packers defensive strengths which are pass rush and the Packers secondary especially if Alexander is ready to go.

If the OL wins their side of the LOS it means the Packers ground game is effective which will create solidly action opportunities in the passing game. The keys will be the interior of the Packers OL and the return (hopefully) of Aaron Jones. If Watson returns, even as a decoy, he can create opportunities for the Packers other receivers.

It all starts at the LOS. Stop the run, run the ball, win the game. Go Pack Go! Thanks, Since '61

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MainePackFan's picture

September 28, 2023 at 01:16 pm

Since '61. No doubt the LOS on both sides of the ball is key to this game, as it is with every game like you mentioned.

I think the Packers will struggle to run the ball on this team, but I think Musgrave is in for a breakout game. The Lions have given up 25 completions for 263 yards and a TD over the first 3 games.

I can see them employing a short passing game off of play action. Get the ball out quick to Jones, Reed, Doubs and Musgrave. If successful, it will open up deep shots. Watson, if he plays, and Musgrave could be the beneficiaries .

J. Love needs to be aware of where the Lions ball hawks are. We've seen what Kerby Joseph (if he plays) can do. Branch is another one that has a nose for the football.

The Packers need to show that they can play 4 quarters of football. Something we haven't seen for awhile. GPG!!!

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Packerpasty's picture

September 28, 2023 at 05:51 pm

J. Love has been getting away with too many tight throws slightly off the mark, hope the INT bug doesn't start tonight...and he wont always get those calls on the long ball DPI's....take what they give you and move the ball. We have had just as much Hero ball as when AR was here and also running the clock down to 1 sec all the time..

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stockholder's picture

September 28, 2023 at 10:25 am

Since Nobody has the Guts to write it. I will.
Heard the Lions have never been favored:
At Lambeau per "starting" QB, since Dickey.
The Lions have.figured out how to win on the road.
Winning their last 5 out of 6 on the "road."
They've been Praised, for their " Sure Tackling" this year.
The "everything to play for" still fits the Lions.
Goef is in the top10 Qbs. And he has found his #1 and #2 Wrs.
Putting that with a running game that is healed.
The Lions are the strength of the Division.
They are for real.
Hopefully MLF pulls often injured players for later.

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Coldworld's picture

September 28, 2023 at 12:04 pm

If you read Lions fans, the most contentious problem they gave is how many tens of pints they will beat us by. In their minds they don’t have a division winner but a sure fire Super Bowl level of talent. We have maybe Jones in their eyes. Sounds like you have drunk from the same well. I will go out in a limb, we won’t be as talentless and they won’t be as great as you all seem to believe.

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Packerpasty's picture

September 28, 2023 at 05:49 pm

hope your the right one...myself, I still havent bought into MLF...he certainly doesn't coach like Campbell, which can be good or bad, and Goff just seems to go off on the Packers...him and St Brown...gonna be a battle...hope the boo birds dont start up too early...

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jont's picture

September 28, 2023 at 11:36 am

With Detroit fully aware of Rashan's production they will shade protection to his side, and with a star guard out, this will open opportunities to rush up the middle. How about some double A-gap pressure? I'd love to see Goff try to outrun Quay.

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Coldworld's picture

September 28, 2023 at 12:08 pm

This is a game for Wyatt and Wooden to show up on paper. First though we have to stop the run. However, I don’t think we win unless we can pressure Goff and at least run the ball ourselves somewhat.

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Esquetoi's picture

September 28, 2023 at 01:51 pm

Time for Brenton Cox's debut. He is the counter balance to Rashan Gary, Cox's forte in the preseason was disruption by pressure, movement and then batting down passes. Goff will not rebound if his passing lanes are disrupted as there are no deep threats the Lions have. He has no lofty passes in the playbook this game. Also, Michael Jordan if ripe to be activated AND be put into the starting LG lineup. Yes, start the former starter with the Bengals as he has the veteran experience in live game situations...with the ability to hold his end up. Rotate Newman in with Jordan, Nijman, and any other "man." He's even played center during the Bengals' emergence. Finally, there is no receiver the Lions have that will blow by any Packer. Play it tight, let the safeties roam the field which is Savage's thing. Feed this guy, he might be ready to explode.

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Packerpasty's picture

September 28, 2023 at 05:53 pm

Love throws up as many Hero balls as AR ever did only JL's arent often on target...lets just move the ball down the field with whats given and hopefully Jones will get the running game on track...please dont feature Dillon..especially running wide..

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