Packers Periscope: Week 11 Thanksgiving Edition vs. Chicago Bears
Up Periscope for the Packers week 11 opponent, the Chicago Bears. Gobble Gobble.
By hobbes
The Past
Packers-Bears got off to a quick start in 2015 as the teams met opening weekend at Chicago for the 191st meeting between the two teams. The Packers got off to a fast start with Aaron Rodgers throwing for 189 yards and 3TDs for a 140.5 QB rating, including 2 TDs to castoff James Jones, who would lead the NFL in touchdowns during the first quarter of the season. Jay Cutler did manage to make it a game later down the stretch, completing 18 passes for 225 yards, a touchdown and a interception while Matt Forte gashed the Packers defense for 141 yards and a TD. In the end it was too little too late as the Packers won 31-23.
The Present
|
Overall Team Efficiency |
Packers |
Bears |
|
|
14.3% |
-13.8% |
||
|
Offense |
Overall |
13.1% |
3.5% |
|
Run |
-5.3% |
-4.4% |
|
|
Pass |
35.9% |
20.4% |
|
|
Defense |
Overall |
-1.4% |
3.4% |
|
Run |
-9.8% |
17.5% |
|
|
Pass |
5.0% |
7.6% |
|
|
Special Teams |
-0.3% |
-6.1% |
|
|
Quarterback (DYAR) |
697 |
527 |
|
(All statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders, click here for a detailed description of DVOA and DYAR. And as always defensive DVOA is the inverse of offensive DVOA so negative numbers are better.)
10 weeks in and the Packers will be facing a completely different Bears teams. Ok, maybe not. Instead of facing a team that was historically one of the worst teams in the league history, the Packers instead will be facing a team that is only one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. To give you an idea of just how bad the Bears were, their DVOA after week 3 was -70.2%, which was a full 20% worse than the next team (SF), who was also historically bad at the time (-51.4%)
Perhaps the biggest difference between when the Packers meet the Bears in week 1 and this week is that the Bears passing game has become decent; while they still aren’t a world beater, getting Alshon Jefferies back to compliment Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett has allowed Jay Cutler to 20.4% passing DVOA, good for 11th in the league. To be honest, the Bears offense is somewhere between 2013, which featured one of the best offenses in the league with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jefferies and 2014, which was a huge dumpster fire of a year that ended with Marc Trestman’s firing.
That being said, biggest match-up this week will probably be the Bears passing offense attack versus the Packers secondary; both units have had moments of dominance but also have crapped their pants on other occasions. If the Packers are able to bring the same kind of pressure that they showed against Minnesota, then they should be able to win the game comfortably.
The Future
When we first talked about the Bears back in week 1, it was mostly about how this year was going to be a rebuilding season with a new front office, a new coaching staff and yet another attempt to fix Jay Cutler. While the team endured a pretty rough start followed by a fire sale that sent linebacker John Bostick to New England and Jared Allen to Carolina, my personal opinion is that they’re right where they want to be. Of course the Bears are still not a very good team but expecting a surprise season during a full rebuild was foolish to start.
The Bears basically have a 0% chance alongside the Lions of making the playoffs as the NFC North has become a two team race with the Packers and Vikings with Atlanta and whoever loses the NFC North taking up the wildcard spots. Football outsiders has the Bears wining the division 0.7% and a 5.5% chance of winning a wild card berth. Either way, the Bears would have to see a lot of things (and I mean a lot of things) go their way before even considering a playoff run.
A lot more should have been expected from the rookie class, but Kevin White still has not made it onto the field, he has finally been able to practice again after being activated from the PUP list. Jeremy Langford has seen more time with the injury to longtime star Matt Forte, who may or may not play against the Packers.
Comments (21)
Hematite
November 25, 2015 at 05:22 am
Packers/Bears!
This is the real rivalry.
Throw the records out the window.
This will be a real helmet job played out in the mud, the blood and the beer.
Bring it on!
GO PACK GO!
hobbes
November 25, 2015 at 12:16 pm
As mentioned below, the Packers have a chance to tie the series, which is a big thing.
Greenandgoldmemories
November 26, 2015 at 05:47 am
Before game time, check out "Green & Gold Memories - Growing up in Vince Lombardi's Green Bay" on Amazon. Great holiday gift. Take a peek. Go Pack!
Tundraboy
November 25, 2015 at 06:59 am
Black and Blue
Ibleedgreenmore
November 25, 2015 at 07:29 am
Always a great game, what a day it will be with the greats on the field this should be fun.
hobbes
November 25, 2015 at 12:15 pm
I'm hoping they actually show Favre's number being retired (at half time presumably) rather than having to watch talking heads spin in their chairs.
TommyG
November 25, 2015 at 07:30 am
I think this game will look very familiar to all of us in that the Bears are going to be gutted. Yes, the bears have looked better and yes cutler can throw the ball. But come on, this is the bears in our house. Our defense, as porous as it has been, always eats Jay alive. This week will be no exception. There will be lots of pressure, a good number of hits and sacks, wild throws, and picks (maybe one will go for 6). Our offense will look good against these guys. I have not picked a blowout all year, but I think this is the week that happens.
hobbes
November 25, 2015 at 12:14 pm
Actually Packers-Bears games haven't been huge blowouts like we've remembered. Since 2012 the Packers have won comfortably, but other than the "ILB Matthews" game it hasn't been a real blowout: W 31-23, W 55-14, W 38-17, W 33-28, L 20-27, W 21-13, W 23-10
I'm still not worried about the Packers losing but it's actually really really hard to blowout another team.
BeyKlaw
November 25, 2015 at 10:14 am
After 191 meetings, the Bears currently lead the series at 93–92–6. With a victory in the 192nd meeting, the Packers can even the series for the first time since 1933, when the series was tied at 11-11-4.
It has been a long time coming, but I am looking forward to Green Bay finally having the opportunity to take the series lead next season.
Evan
November 25, 2015 at 12:07 pm
From the MMQB game preview: "Not only are the Packers one of the fastest defenses in the NFL, they’re the most versatile, both in personnel and scheme. "
I mean, what?
hobbes
November 25, 2015 at 12:09 pm
That might be true, but as the Oakland Raiders can attest being fast doesn't mean you are good. I guess I can agree with versatility, the Packers might have more contributors on defense than any other team in the NFL, again I'm not sure that makes them inherently better.
Evan
November 25, 2015 at 12:12 pm
Versatile, sure. But one of the fastest? Outside of Shields and Matthews, who has above average speed on this defense?
hobbes
November 25, 2015 at 01:24 pm
I'd think that Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Damarious Randall are about average in terms of speed. Not sure if I would say they are above average though.
NewNikeShoes
November 25, 2015 at 03:46 pm
Dix has range, so that has to account for something, above average in my book.
Randall got beaten by Wallace last game, so he's probably not the fastest out there.
AZPack
November 25, 2015 at 07:00 pm
Clinton-Dix has good range, but in terms of timed speed he's on the slow end for a Safety. I would say Randall has slightly above average speed.
Matthews has very good speed for a LB. Shields obviously has outsanding speed.
Overall, as a team, the offense is SLOW, Defense is slightly above average speed.
FITZCORE1252
November 25, 2015 at 02:30 pm
I know the all time head-to-head record gets all the pub (rightfully so), but i read somewhere -earlier this year- that the scoring differential through all those games is like... 7 points! Anybody else see that? That's effing bonkers!
Mojo
November 25, 2015 at 05:27 pm
Might sound strange but actually the more games they play I would expect both the won-loss records and the scoring differential to get closer than with less games played.
hobbes
November 25, 2015 at 05:56 pm
That would make sense if results from games and scores were distributed in a gaussian manner. I would probably argue that the score/game differential probably cycle, especially since the Packers winning often comes at the expense of the Bears twice a year and vice versa.
hobbes
November 25, 2015 at 05:51 pm
Interesting idea and I thought I would look into it. Going by the regular season Packers-Bears games the Packers have scored 2,856 points while the Bears have scored 2,826 points, or a difference of 30 points. While it's not 7 points, it's still really really close.
Hematite
November 26, 2015 at 04:51 am
That means the Packers have outscored the Bears by 0.157 points per game over the 191 games.
mrtundra
November 25, 2015 at 03:02 pm
I am hoping the Packers can use this game as an opportunity for ARodgers and his WRs to get back in sync. It's time to put some distance between us and the rest of the NFC North teams. I'm looking forward to seeing all the Packer history on display in Lambeau with Favre's ceremony, Bart and Cherry Starr(possibly their last visit to Lambeau) and Aaron Rodgers and seeing if it will affect the Bears. I think it will be similar to what the Packers faced in Denver, only more meaningful.