Packers Deep Dive - Third Round Draft Pick Jace Sternberger

The Packers have said that they weren't targeting a specific position with the 75th pick: they had their board of their best available and they drafted according to how the board fell. So we were not mistaken when we all heard the angels singing when Jace Sternberger was announced as the pick. This was a perfect marriage of best player available and need. While many Packers fans - myself included - were banging on the drum all day for TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant, Brian Gutekunst landed someone who he believes is in the same category those two. While it's unlikely that Sternberger was their #1 tight end on the board, it doesn't seem like a stretch to assume he was their #3. The fact that The Iowa Boys went in round 1 while Sternberger went in round 3 means that the Packers feel like they got tremendous value on this pick.

But what of Sternberger himself?

His college career started with a whimper but ended with a bang. He started his career at notable non-football school Kansas, as part of David Beaty's first recruiting class. After redshirting his first year in 2015, he caught a whopping 1 pass for 5 yards in his second year. Before that goes as a mark against Sternberger, you should know that the entire TE group caught a total of 11 passes in 2016.

After his second season at Kansas, Sternberger transferred to Northeastern Oklahoma A&M, a junior college. He fared better there, bringing in 21 catches for 336 yards and 6 touchdowns. His performance there was good enough to draw some attention, so he transferred to Texas A&M for the 2018 season.

At Texas A&M, Sternberger took off, catching 48 passes for 832 yards (17.3 yards per catch) and 10 touchdowns. Those 10 touchdowns tied Texas A&M's school record for most touchdowns scored by a tight end in a single season. For turning in that season, Sternberger was named first team all-SEC and named first team All-America from the Associated Press, Athlon Sports, CBS Sports, Football Writers Association of America, Sporting News and Sports Illustrated.

In looking at those numbers, it's no surprise that Gutekunst talked about Sternbeger as a "matchup problem" that can "stretch the field." For the Packers, a tight end in that mold has been a type of mythical beast: we have heard that they exist, but we haven't seen much evidence of them existing in Green Bay for a while.

For someone talked about in those terms, one would have expected his 40 yard dash time to be a little better than the 4.75 time he turned in at the combine. The Packers have said they timed him at 4.66, which puts him more in the conversation of a field-stretching tight end. After rolling through his games, he certainly seems to play faster than that 4.75 time.

Which is good, because the main knock on Sternberger's game is his blocking. I have found him to be a willing blocker, if not a particularly good one. He appears to be a hard worker and all of his quotes since being drafted seem to come from a man who feels he has something to prove, so he he will likely work to improve, but he comes into the league as a receiving tight end who can also block now and then if you need him, but maybe don't count on him.

That's not really a big deal now, but it could be next season. The Packers have 4 tight ends who will likely end up on the 2019 roster - Jimmy Graham, Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan and Jace Sternberger - with Lewis being the only legitimate blocking threat on the field. Lewis will be 35 when the season starts and is playing on a one-year contract, while Graham will be 32 and is likely playing his last season in Green Bay. That leaves 2020 with Tonyan and Sternberger; two receiving tight ends. That may not be the end of the world, but Matt LaFleur's offense works best when the offense is a legitimate threat to power run or stretch the field with the passing game from the same look. If they're trotting out a couple receiving-only tight ends, that kills the deception.

Again, it's not a concern now, but it could become a concern, depending on how Sternberger progresses and how the tight end position is addressed. 

For the 2019 season, Sternberger will likely see limited snaps. In the early going, it seems like his immediate impact will be felt in the red zone. With his size and receiving ability, he has a chance to be a monster in the red zone package. Seeing the Packers trot out a package of Davante Adams, Sternberger, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Jones and Marquez Valdes-Scantling should be enough to strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenses. If you really want to get crazy with the red zone package, let's roll out Adams, Sternberger, Lewis, Jones and Dan Vitale. That's a power package that could easily go spread if the defense stacks the box. I am entirely too excited about that package.

I'm notoriously optimistic before a season - hope springs eternal, after all - but I'm pretty high on Sternberger. He doesn't need to come in and be a world-beater right away. He can come in on certain packages and ease into the league. He can refine his already very good route-running. He can work on improving his blocking. That way, when he gets called-up to full-time duty in 2020, he'll be ready.

I've seen some people mentioning Gronk when seeing highlights of Sternberger. What made Gronk special was that he was an elite blocker to go with his elite receiving skills. Gronk was an ultimate mismatch, allowing the Patriots to do any number of different things just by having him on the field. Sternberger is not Gronk. Sternberger will never be Gronk, and that's perfectly fine. I believe Sternberger could become a very good receiving tight end with slightly below-average blocking skills. There's a lot of value in a player like that, especially if he's taken in the third round.


Last but not least - and in no way football related - Sternberger was born in 1997. As it turns out, 1997 was a very good year for music. Let's just roll through a list of some albums that came out in 1997.
Radiohead - OK Computer (one of the best - if not the best - albums ever recorded)
Paul McCartney - Flaming Pie (his post-Anthology album and one of his best solo albums)
The Verve - Urban Hymns (not their best, but there are some ridiculously amazing songs here, even without "Bittersweet Symphony")
Starflyer 59 - Americana (one of my all-time favorite bands beginning their journey away from shoegaze and into rock)
Foo Fighters - The Colour and the Shape (a modern rock classic)
Havalina Rail Co. - Russian Lullabies (dark and sad and lovely; definitely one of those albums that taught me the depths of what music could offer)
Beulah - Handsome Western States (about as perfect a pop album as you're likely to find. A tremendous debut from an underappreciated group)
Modest Mouse - The Lonesome Crowded West (alt-rock weirdness before they hit it big. "Trailer Trash" is still one of the best things they've ever done)
Elliott Smith - Either/Or (quite possibly the best album of his career)
Model Engine - The Lean Years Tradition (raw rock n' roll with tremendous songwriting, born from the ashes of Black Eyed Sceva)
Pedro the Lion - Whole (the EP that kicked off a indie-rock powerhouse that is still chugging along today)
Stavesacre - Absolutes (heavy, dark-tone rock with some of the best drumming you'll ever find)
Godspeed You! Black Emperor - F#A# Infinity (worth the price of admission for "Dead Flag Blues" if nothing else)
There are, of course, many many more, but that's just a small sampling. It was a very good year.

 

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Dusty Evely is a film analyst for Cheesehead TV. He can be heard talking about the Packers on Pack-A-Day Podcast. He can be found on Twitter at @DustyEvely or email at [email protected].

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Comments (42)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
jeremyjjbrown's picture

April 30, 2019 at 03:27 pm

Lots of good albums on that list. I was lucky to be in highschool and college during the 90s. What a good time.

"The Packers have said they timed him at 4.66"

That's it. I dub him Sternburner.

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DustyEvely's picture

April 30, 2019 at 07:57 pm

I was a junior in high school in '97 and was beyond lucky to have friends who turned me onto good music. That was a HUGE year for me.

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RCPackerFan's picture

April 30, 2019 at 03:29 pm

I remember seeing last week from one of the 'draft experts' that they would much rather draft Sternberger in the 3rd round then to draft Fant in the first round. I wish I remember who said that especially now, but that really stood out to me last week before the draft. They said there wasn't that much in difference between Fant and Sternberger but you would be getting him 2 rounds lower making it a much better deal.

The way I look at Sternberger is that he will essentially have a redshirt year this year. I expect him to play some but not much (unless there is an injury). I think its a perfect opportunity for him to learn from Graham on his receiving ability and from Lewis on his blocking ability. I do think they will find different ways to use him or in certain packages. Perhaps he will earn more time as the season goes on. I just don't expect him to come in and start right away.

TE's don't typically come in and make a huge impact their rookie years. So not forcing him to have to play right away I think will benefit him. I think his impact will be next year.

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Samson's picture

April 30, 2019 at 03:33 pm

Redshirt Year? ... He's a 3rd round pick at TE. -- He needs 'real' snaps to get better.

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RCPackerFan's picture

April 30, 2019 at 03:39 pm

He will get snaps. He is a 3rd round pick but he has 2 proven veterans playing in front of him. Unless they get rid of one of them or there are injuries. Also, he will have to fend off Tonyan who is no slouch.

I'm sure there will be packages he will be used in, perhaps redzone or other packages, but he won't be getting 50%+ of the snaps, unless he really shines or there are injuries.

Hence why this will be a 'redshirt' year or 'learning' year for him. And he will take over as possible starter next year.

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Samson's picture

April 30, 2019 at 03:31 pm

"For the 2019 season, Sternberger will likely see limited snaps."

The other 3 TEs will somehow have to be very productive to keep Sternberger on the sidelines. --- I'm not sure they can. --- MLF is probably devising plans to get the most out of the TE position, but, Graham, Lewis & Tonyan are far from elite.

Sternberger may play just by default.

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Scrum's picture

April 30, 2019 at 04:44 pm

Not reality. TE is the hardest position other than QB to step right in and play significant snaps as a rookie.

He'll be lucky to get 40% of the snaps. It's just not going to happen.

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Samson's picture

April 30, 2019 at 06:00 pm

Everything you've said above is based on ......... what?

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Scrum's picture

April 30, 2019 at 06:30 pm

Based on the history of the NFL. Rookie TEs rarely produce, especially when he's behind 2 veterans, who, unlike what many want to believe, are solid options at the position.

He's going to be at best, the 3rd tightend for the majority of the season.

Rookie TE snap %s over 60% the last 5 years:
2018 - Chris Herndon (had no one in front of him)
2017 - Evan Engram (no one in front of him)
2016 - None
2015 - None
2014 - None
2013 - None

The only ones who play significantly are ones who have no one in front of them.

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Samson's picture

April 30, 2019 at 09:46 pm

"He's going to be at best, the 3rd tight end for the majority of the season."

Have you told MLF this yet? ... He'd probably like to know. ---- BTW: 41 rookie TEs have started at least 12 or more games out of 16 since 1980. --- Even Bubba Franks for the Pack started 13 of 16 in his rookie year.

Your analysis is flawed & based on a sampling size that is just too small. -- Try pro football reference for real data.

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IceBowl's picture

April 30, 2019 at 09:50 pm

samson,

All i can do is laugh at predictions like that this time of season.

Players will get their 'earned" reps, no matter what these experts say. That is just the reality. That is team football!!!!!!!!

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Scrum's picture

May 01, 2019 at 06:57 am

Yes players will earn their reps, but TE is incredibly difficult to play as a rookie.

Some more info on rookie year play time from the first TE taken and/or current "stars" at the position

2012:
Coby Fleener: 38.5% of snaps - highest drafted TE
2013:
Eifert: 59.5% - highest drafted TE
Ertz: 40.8%
2014:
Ebron: 40.7% - highest drafted TE
ASJ: 45% - 2nd TE taken
2015:
Max Williams: 42% - highest TE taken
Clive Walford: 41.6% - 2nd TE taken
2016:
Hunter Henry: 53.8% - highest drafted TE
Austin Hooper: 39% - 2nd TE taken
2017:
OJ Howard: 55.6% - 1st TE taken
E. Engram: 71.6% - 2nd taken
D. Njoku: 46.9% - 3rd taken
Kittle: 53.7% - a star now

So as I said, it'll be difficult, and unlikely that he plays significant snaps in 2019, and that's OK. It's pretty much par for course in the current NFL.

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Scrum's picture

May 01, 2019 at 06:34 am

Wow so 41 rookies out of 562 drafted tight ends have started at least 12 games as a rookie? An incredible 7.3% of all tight ends drafted.

Starting a game does not equal playing time, it means your listed as the starter, but my analysis is the one that is flawed? I'm stating ACTUAL play time, not a stat that is just who is on the field the first play of the game.

I'm glad you were able to pull that recent data of Bubba Franks from....wait, 19 years ago. Very relevant to today's NFL landscape. Not to mention, like my previous post, Bubba was drafted as the starter after Chmura retired, and had again, NO ONE in front of him for play time.

Jace was not and will not be the starter in 2019.

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Oppy's picture

May 01, 2019 at 07:53 am

^^ he's right, you know.

"Starts" is a very flawed stat. It's literally just being on the field for he first offensive or defensive snap of a given game.

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dblbogey's picture

May 01, 2019 at 11:10 am

Another "expert" confusing facts with opinions.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 30, 2019 at 03:40 pm

RC,
That was me saying that!

:)

I do agree Sternberger runs and catches smoothly. I do think he could develop into a very good TE. He will need to build his body up and work on his explosiveness...and he will. I think Tonyan and Sternberger are going to be good. Couple them with the young WR's and RB's and the Pack is sitting pretty at these positions for next 3 or 4 years.

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RCPackerFan's picture

April 30, 2019 at 03:44 pm

lol well you may have, but I saw it from one of the guys on TV. Unless you were on tv?

I like Sternberger a lot. I just think we need to calm expectations for this year. I do think he will have some bigger plays this year and will have a role. But most rookie TE's don't have big years. He has 2 vets ahead of him.

I think he could have a huge year 2. Just don't think he will be a star this year.

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Coldworld's picture

April 30, 2019 at 04:37 pm

I agree entirely. Limited packages and focus on them is his best chance to get on the field and make an impact.

I am puzzled as to why we should accept that his blocking upside is a little bit below average. Is he physically restricted or are you saying we can’t expect him to learn?

For what he will be paid if he can become a proficient blocker he should have enough incentive and for what his coaches are paid I would expect them to ensure that he is turned into a more than adequate blocker. This year would be an excellent opportunity and progress would likely significantly increase his snap opportunities.

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RCPackerFan's picture

May 01, 2019 at 06:43 am

I really didn't say anything about his blocking. Though it does need work. I remember Tonyan saying last year learning from Lewis benefited him greatly. I expect the same thing for Sternberger this year.

I don't know if he will ever become a road grader type of TE, but I think he can be sufficient. I don't know how much he has been asked to block in the past. But I think he could improve there.

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fthisJack's picture

May 01, 2019 at 09:14 am

blocking is something he will work on and get better at as will his route running. at A&M i doubt he was asked to block much and the 3 years previous he was stuck in no man's land. he has a lot to learn but his upside is outstanding.

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LambeauPlain's picture

April 30, 2019 at 03:48 pm

Some of the post draft comments have been Gutey did not help out AR and the O with his FA signings nor this draft.

Well, the D absolutely needed more starting talent and infusion of quality depth.

That has been done.

Yet of the 3 O prospects drafted vs the 5 D prospects, all 3 of the O guys have are likely to contribute meaningful snaps next season. Only 2 of the 5 D players are likely to...Savage and Gary.

I would argue the O talent has been upgraded at some key positions...and a stronger D will help the O utilize it.

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IceBowl's picture

April 30, 2019 at 03:56 pm

RCPackerFan,

You say .... "But most rookie TE's don't have big years."

I agree 100%. Same for WR's.

But they will get the snaps that they earn. And this regime, to me, looks like a use it or lose it staff. Earn it or we don't need ya.

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RCPackerFan's picture

May 01, 2019 at 06:48 am

Hearing over the weekend that Rishard Mathews did not like LaFleur because he came in and made his players earn their playing time tells me that all the players will have to earn playing time. Nothing will be given.

So yes Sternberger will have to earn his snaps. But to ask a rookie to overtake a veteran entering his 9th season and another entering his 13th is not going to be an easy task. Its why I think he will start out the season as a backup, and playing a smaller role, and as the season goes on he will maybe earn more playing time.

But even if he earns more snaps it doesn't necessarily mean he will be putting up huge numbers. Which is why I think he won't have a monstrous year.

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Stu M's picture

May 01, 2019 at 08:07 am

"...Rishard Mathews did not like LaFleur because he came in and made his players earn their playing time..."

That attitude/POV only breeds complacency, something we are trying to remove from the Green Bay locker room. So, I couldn't be happier to hear this and it only bolsters my excitement for the Matt LaFluer hiring and this coming year.

GO PACK GO!

2 points
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Slim11's picture

April 30, 2019 at 04:02 pm

I look forward to Sternberger's performance this season. His 2018 numbers at TXA&M were the best, by far, of his college career. Those numbers also came with Aggie QB Kellen Mond throwing the ball.

I look forward to seeing improved productivity from the TE group this season.

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IceBowl's picture

April 30, 2019 at 04:19 pm

He hopped around like a grasshopper to get to TXA&M. Only 1 year there.

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tm_inter's picture

April 30, 2019 at 04:23 pm

48 passes for 832 yards (17.3 yards per catch) and 10 touchdowns in one season
..........................
Sternberger is a proven TE who doesn't need a "red shirt" year. I bet Aaron Rodgers would love to test throwing to him in the red zone.

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Coldworld's picture

April 30, 2019 at 04:39 pm

No college player is proven in the NFL.

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RCPackerFan's picture

May 01, 2019 at 07:32 am

Here is a list of the majority of the best TE's coming into the league since 2010.

2010 rookies-
Jermaine Gresham - 52 catches 471 yards 4 TD's.
2nd year - 55 rec, 596 yards 6 TD's
Rob Gronkowski - 42 catches 546 yards 10 TD's.
2nd year - 90 rec, 1327 yards 17 TD's
Ed Dickson - 11 catches 152 yards 1 TD
2nd year - 54 rec, 528 yards 5 TD's
Tony Moeaki - 47 catches 556 yards 3 TD's.
Jimmy Graham - 31 catches 356 yards 5 TD's
2nd year - 99 rec, 1310 yards 11 TD's

2011 rookies -
Kyle Rudolph - 26 caches 249 yards 3 TD's
2nd year - 53 rec 493 yards 9 TD's
Lance Kendricks - 28 catches 352 yards 0 TD's
2nd year - 42 rec 519 yards 4 TD's

2012 -
Coby Fleener - 26 catches 281 yards 2 TD's
2nd year - 52 rec 608 yards 4 TD's

2013 -
Tyler Eifert - 39 catches 445 yards 2 TD's
3rd year (2nd injured) - 52 rec 615 yards 13 TD's
Zach Ertz - 36 catches 469 yards 4 TD's
2nd year - 58 rec 702 yards 3 TD's

2014-
Eric Ebron - 25 catches 248 yards 1 TD
2nd year - 47 rec 537 yards 5 TDs

2016-
Hunter Henry - 36 catches 478 yards 8 TD's.
2nd year (fewer games) 45 rec 579 yards 4 TD's
Austin Hooper - 19 catches 271 yards 3 TD's
2nd year 49 rec 526 yards 3 TD's.

2017-
OJ Howard - 26 catches 432 yards 6 TDs
2nd year (fewer games) 34 rec 565 yards 5 TD's
Evan Engram - 64 catches 722 yards 6 TD's
2nd year (fewer games) 45 rec 577 yards 3 TD's
David Njoku - 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD's
56 rec 639 yards 4 TD's
Gerald Everett - 16 catches 244 yards 2 TD's
2nd year 33 Rec 320 yards 3 TD's

Essentially what this list shows is that most TE's coming in may have decent numbers but the better TE's in the league really step up in year 2.

I would expect no difference from Sternberner this year.

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splitpea1's picture

April 30, 2019 at 05:39 pm

"...it seems like his immediate impact will be felt in the red zone." We can only hope! AR needs for find somebody he can "trust" down there other than Davante, and maybe this will turn out to be the guy.

As for the second half of your article, your suggestion that OK Computer was "one of the best--if not the best--albums ever recorded" is an attempt at humor, right? You must be very young. I know this album garnered critical praise for its innovation and technical proficiency, but most of the songs aren't particularly catchy in my opinion. Music critics are notorious for having all sorts of peculiar matter floating around in their minds. However, I am impressed with "Jigsaw Falling Into Place" and "Everything In Its Right Place", which of course are on other Radiohead albums.

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DustyEvely's picture

April 30, 2019 at 08:07 pm

I think he will be. Even with limited snaps, I expect him to make some noise in the red zone.

I'm 38, so not super old, but old enough to ache when I get out of bed in the morning. I've got OK Computer as my #2 album of all time. "Catchy" doesn't factor in for me. It's an amazing album that makes me feel many, many things. I can't sing along with it the same way I would Pet Sounds or something, but it's an incredible album that has gotten me through a lot of tough times.

If that doesn't apply to you, that's fine! It's right near the top of my list, but if you don't agree, I have no issue with it. Love what makes you happy.

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splitpea1's picture

April 30, 2019 at 09:21 pm

What a diplomatic response! I was digging the trenches here, but it looks like they won't be necessary,

Back to the main issue, this entire offense and coaching staff needs to step it up in the red zone big time. If this is where Sternberger makes his greatest initial impact, then he's just the guy we needed to draft. Hopefully people can say, to cite a famous quote, "All he does is catch touchdowns." Probably getting a little carried away here....

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Coldworld's picture

May 01, 2019 at 06:46 am

The offense as a whole looked completely lost in the red zone last year. In my view we called plays as if we had the same personnel as the year before and all healthy. Cover Adams and Graham and forget the rest could have been the opposing maxim and worked.

Some fault may go lie with the receivers, some with Rodgers perhaps not trusting but we made little to no attempt to scheme in Tonyan, Lewis, MVS or EQ or Allison and take advantage of their height, speed, shiftiness, strength or verticals.

With young players or new to scheme ones, surely setting up routes that use attributes to get open or create confusion makes sense. We seemed to mostly use the same routes that we used before which relied on veteran awareness to find a hole or come back to the ball.

Of course, that seemed true wherever we were on the field, but in the red zone everything is condensed. I simply cannot imagine the new regime doing a worse job using its weapons (including running backs and even a full back) than was the case last year.

If so, even if there were no improvements at all in skill play, I expect much better results. In addition, our interior line has the potential to be a lot better, which should help considerably in the either red zone where our pockets collapsed all to often.

Taken together, a significant improvement should be expected not hoped for, even without considering the possibility and benefit of a healthy, mobile Rodgers. These are some of the reasons why I expect our O to be better this year, and why I think the criticism of the receivers/TEs is overblown even ignoring the fact that a number were rookies or first year players.

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fthisJack's picture

May 01, 2019 at 09:26 am

i think with a new O scheme, the red zone will have a totally new look. the last few years it seemed like run on first down and then 3 passes.
with more emphasis on the running game and a new and hopefully improved OL and more deception on what the play will be, running in the Red Zone will create more opportunities for the receivers.
i expect a lot more TD's than last year and less reliance on Crosby's leg.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

May 01, 2019 at 12:34 pm

When we signed Graham, Lewis and drafted 3 tall WRs I thought the Packers would be unstoppable in the red zone. Who has the CB/Safety/LB height to match up? I thought Adam's and Graham would feast. Unfortunately that was not how it played out. Here's hoping in 2019 MLF & a healthy Rodgers can take advantage of height matchup nightmares in the redzone!

Go Pack Go!

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EddieLeeIvory's picture

April 30, 2019 at 07:40 pm

1997 Tubthumping
How Bizarre

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DustyEvely's picture

April 30, 2019 at 08:08 pm

You're right: some not-so-great moments, too...

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IceBowl's picture

April 30, 2019 at 08:24 pm

Pack fans.....

I am so done with "someone said."

If you disagree with me, PLEASE, tell me the significance of that statement!!

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baldski's picture

April 30, 2019 at 11:14 pm

I love this guy's tape. Catches the ball away from his body with real soft hands.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 01, 2019 at 09:14 am

Sadly, the only name I even recognize on the list of bands is McCartney. Can't say I liked any of his solo stuff, except Live and Let Die. Very pop, no rock.

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egbertsouse's picture

May 01, 2019 at 12:01 pm

I recognize McCartney and Nirvana. Otherwise, zilch. I remember my youngest kid used to listen to Rage Against the Machine around that time. Sounded like they were tearing down the house next door.

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fthisJack's picture

May 01, 2019 at 09:44 am

musical tastes on opposite ends of the spectrum....Tool, Alice In Chains, Breaking Benjamin, 3 Days Grace, Nirvana, Bush, Jane's Addiction, Deftones, Chevelle, RAM, and RHCP some of the music i was listening to. i think that was the last decade of really good music.

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