Packers at Lions: Gameday Preview - 2023 Week 12

The Packers were thoroughly beaten in all phases earlier this year when the Packers hosted the Lions. Now, they travel to Detroit for what looks like a turkey of a game.

 

The last time the Packers played the Lions, Detroit came to Lambeau and did pretty much whatever they wanted to all game.

They ran for over 200 yards, sacked Jordan Love 5 times, and easily won by two touchdowns.

Unfortunately, there's not a lot of evidence to suggest a different outcome today. 

 

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

Jordan Love was in a serious groove against the Chargers and snapped the franchise's two year drought of 300 yard passers with a career-high 322 yards.

However, that was against a terrible Chargers defense in a game when he had a full complement of weapons.

Today, they face a much more capable defense (the Lions rank 9th in the league in fewest yards allowed) and their skill players are seriously ailing. 

Luke Musgrave has what Matt LaFleur referred to as "a pretty significant injury," and pretty much every wide receiver outside of Romeo Doubs (Reed, Watson, and Wicks) is dealing with some sort of injury.

Throw in injuries to every running back on the roster (Jones with a knee injury, Dillon with a groin injury, and Wilson with a shoulder injury), and you should really be asking why the NFL had to go to a 17 week season while neglecting to schedule byes before all Thursday games.

There is really no excuse for this, NFL, you can make the same amount of money with a schedule that gives players bodies more than a few days between games.

Musgrave and Wilson have been placed on IR, and it looks like Jones and Wicks are not gonna be able to go. Many of the guys who play will be less than 100%. Given that blocking has been relatively poor, it doesn't look good for this offense.

The Lions front features Aidan Hutchinson, who has a history of wrecking the Packers and Alim McNeill, who is very disruptive up front. Defensive tackle Benito Jones is an anchor in the middle, and will be a tough assignment for Josh Myers and Jon Runyan.

On the back end, rookie safety Brian Branch has been an instant impact player who lines up all over the field and has to be accounted for as a cover man, a run defender, and a blitzer.

The Lions last loss came against the Ravens, who passed aggressively right off the bat and got a lot of running production from quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens scored 4 touchdowns before the Lions even managed a 1st down.

If the Packers want to have a chance here, they may have to put it all on Jordan Love's shoulders. Matt LaFleur needs a brilliant gameplan today, with whatever players he has on offense, to get a quick passing moving. A fast-paced approach, with a lot of quick passes, and some decisive Jordan Love scambles, may be the Packers's only hope.

 

WHEN THE PACKERS ARE ON DEFENSE

Don't look now, but the Packers have a top 10 scoring defense!

Just in time to face a Lions offense that ranks 6th in points and 2nd in yards.

The Lions offense has only been held under 20 points once this year. Jared Goff threw three interceptions last week against the Bears, but they still flew up and down the field to win the game in the 4th quarter.

Rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been a dynamic complement to David Montgomery. Both average around 5 yards per carry and they've already combined for nearly 1,100 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.

The Packers will need a heroic effort from their defense front to slow this rushing attack. If De'Vondre Campbell's neck injury keeps him out, it may get ugly.

The Lions aren't just a ground-and-pound team, though. Their passing attack is fearsome, too. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a superstar who has already gained more receiving yards than the Packers top two receivers combined.

Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has been an instant stud and has more catches and yards than anyone on the Packers. Supporting receivers Josh Reynolds, Khalif Raymond, and Jameson Williams are explosive role players and the Lions also pass to their running backs a lot (Gibbs has more catches than Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined).

The Packers backup defensive backs held up ok against the Chargers passing attack last week, but they can't count on the Lions to drop that many passes at home in a dome.

The Lions has racked up 1,350 yards and 98 points in their last three outings (Raiders, Chargers, and Bears). They turned it over 7 times in those games, but it didn't matter as Detroit's offense kept coming right back.

The Packers need to brace for an onslaught and a passive scheme is not going to help them today.

 

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Lions are a better team than the Packers.

The came to Lambeau a couple months ago and absolutely spanked the Packers.

Now, they're 8-2 for the first time since the league expanded beyond 14 teams, and they are thoroughly enjoying having the upper hand on their big brother. Playing at home, on Thanksgiving, fresh off a big come from behind win, they are primed and motivated to embarrass the Packers on national television.

More than likely, they will.

A healthy Packers team would have a hard time keeping up with this Lions squad, but as banged up as they are, even with some momentum, they don't have much of a chance here.

The old saying says "Any given Sunday."

But today is a Thursday.

Lions 38, Packers 20

 

 

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Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.

Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.

__________________________

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Comments (21)

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Vachio's picture

November 23, 2023 at 07:16 am

Yeah, the lions are probably not going to shoot themselves in the foot to the degree the chargers did last week. Love could play a perfect game (and I hope he does) and it likely still won't matter because the defense is going to get trucked. 3rd & 2 and Barry will call a nickel with DBs lined up 10 yards off the ball so they can just choose how they want to pick up the 1st down.

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Vachio's picture

November 23, 2023 at 07:18 am

Funny side note on the defense. I was watching JT O'Sullivan's breakdown of Jordan Love and he was just ripping the Chargers defense, but the specific things he was ripping were things the Packers defense does all the time.

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Savage57's picture

November 23, 2023 at 07:38 am

Today may be the day we see the verdict come in for Gute's decision to trade the pick to the Lions they used for Branch, and the two picks the Packers used for Reed and Brooks. Hopefully it doesn't have the TJ Watt for Kevin King/Vince Biegel stink to it.

The odds are stacked against the Packers winning. All I'm looking for is an invested effort from the entire team with them acquitting themselves as professionals should.

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stockholder's picture

November 23, 2023 at 08:59 am

Not only Branch-
But Rasheed Rice - if they wanted a WR. -
36 - 420- 4 TDs - 11.7 Avg.

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jannes bjornson's picture

November 23, 2023 at 10:03 am

Reed would have the same, or better numbers with Mahomes.

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jannes bjornson's picture

November 23, 2023 at 10:01 am

The worry will be at LT, where Gutey did not reinforce the calvary, picking Van Ness to work the bench over Broderick Jones who is starting to take names for the Steelers. This guy Barry would not know how to utilize Branch. I rated Kraft above Musgrave, so let's see if he does his thing? Looking around for the Eight One picks on this defense., Savage & Stokes should be on permanent IR. Barry has to stay in big fronts with Clark and Wyatt on the field as disruptors. If this team fails to show heart on national television--get out the pink slips.

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Bitternotsour's picture

November 23, 2023 at 07:57 pm

see, the problem with Monday morning GM'ing, is that your grudges become your being.

now you'll have to spend the next two days pretending you wanted the packers to win.

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TxFred's picture

November 23, 2023 at 08:09 am

Lions HATE the Pack!!!
They play smash mouth and ass kicking style of football. You know, old fashioned type. The way it was meant to be played.
Pack tends to this new crap, often called "Entertaiment Shit". It's sickening.
Long day for the Pack.

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Bitternotsour's picture

November 23, 2023 at 09:40 am

you know in your heart of hearts that lions fans have their bags close by. they know. this too will pass, and the lions will again turn back into the lions. perhaps today. the earth is calling and they will crash hard back into it.

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Bitternotsour's picture

November 23, 2023 at 02:36 pm

Ha!

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Since'61's picture

November 23, 2023 at 08:27 am

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

Today's game is shaping up like the 40-10 drubbing the Lions handed the Packers on Thanksgiving back in 2013 when Rodgers was out with his first shoulder injury and numerous other Packers players were injured for that game as well.

Somehow the Packers need to keep this game low scoring and close and maybe pull out a late win. If the Lions get out to a 2 score or more lead the Packers will be done early. The Lions have the better team and more of their weapons are healthy compared with the Packers. The short week doesn't help either.

Maybe the defense forces a few turnovers to keep the Packers in it. Regardless of what happens today at least the Packers will have mini-bye to regroup.

Enjoy your Bird! And Go Pack Go! Thanks, Since '61

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LambeauPlain's picture

November 23, 2023 at 09:17 am

Happy Thanksgiving to you Since '61!

Thanksgiving games with Detroit has given the Packers indigestion over the years.

I recall as a kid reading Jerry Kramer's "Instant Replay" recounting the Nov. 22nd 1962 "Thanksgiving Day Massacre" in Detroit with the 10-0 Pack getting ground pounded by the 8-2 Lions D, going down 26-14.

Kramer recounted how Alex Karras beat him like a rented mule. Starr was sacked 11 times!

The 1962 Packers were perhaps the best Green and Gold team ever. Having beaten the Lions earlier that year 9-7, the Packers went into the Thanksgiving game with a bit of hubris and over-confidence.

Maybe we can turn the tables today? (Hope springs eternal in the heart of a Packer fan!)

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Since'61's picture

November 23, 2023 at 09:23 am

LambeauPlain that 1962 Thanksgiving Day game is still the reason why I detest TNF and Thursday football games. I'm convinced to this day that if the Packers had a full week to prepare they would have been undefeated NFL Champions in 1962. Of course they won the championship in '62 anyway but they could have been undefeated.

After the game Coach Lombardi said to the media, "I take all the blame for that one, it was coaching stupidity."

For Lombardi that happened very rarely while he was the Packers HC. Now with MLF we have coaching stupidity just about every week. Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving. Thanks, Since '61

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LeotisHarris's picture

November 23, 2023 at 08:48 am

Anything can happen, that's why they play the games. I'm not optimistic given the Packers many challenges, but I'd be thrilled to watch an upset.

Enjoy Thanksgiving, everyone.

GPG!

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stinkycheesehead's picture

November 23, 2023 at 08:59 am

Packers could win today, Sorry, today we play a real team, GO PACK!!!

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LambeauPlain's picture

November 23, 2023 at 08:59 am

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!

The Packers, as usual, have cornucopia of players on the injury report. I don't know if it is bad luck, training or conditioning issues, but they keep the IR roster full.

As a Packer fan, I always hope for the best. But I am a much greater fan of my family, who will be visiting today. They will be the highlight reel!

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NitschkeFromTheGrave's picture

November 23, 2023 at 09:00 am

Last week most Love fans beat their chest for him saying that it was his break-out game. I'm still scratching my head. Yes he had 300+ yards and 2 TDs but dive deeper in to his 40 attempts and you will find only 2 completions longer than 12 yards even though several will count as longer than 12 yards because the stat; Yards after catch will count in loves favor. And I'd be remiss if I didn't point out Mr. Love has had only one passing TD in the last 5 games. Point is Love had an OK game, it was anything BUT breakout, more like basic NFL mediocrity.

If Love has a breakout game he needs to do it today (Thanks Giving) against the lions.
If Love gets consistent on longer than 12 yard passes, he needs to do it today.
If the receivers have a breakout game, they need to do it today.

The running game could help, If they have a breakout game and the O-Line opens up some lanes to run through. As you know this will help Mr. Love.

Those are a hell of a lot of "IFs" to win this game. My packer flag is proudly raised but I will be white knuckled in my chair at kick off time.

We can only hope the breakouts above gel AND..... the Lions are looking past this game allowing us to catch them on their heels.

GPG !

;

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13TimeChamps's picture

November 23, 2023 at 09:17 am

Unfortunately, Dan Campbell doesn't seem like the kind of coach that would let his players "look past" any game, particularly against a division rival.

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Swisch's picture

November 23, 2023 at 09:15 am

Yikes!
I agree the Lions are a scary matchup against the Packers, but you never know what may happen in any situation involving humans.
Let's see if our guys show some toughness combined with some smarts.
Maybe some pluck and some luck lead to a win.
In any case, and regardless of the coaching, I'm looking for guys on the Packers who really and truly want to play football.
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

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SinceLombardi's picture

November 23, 2023 at 09:34 am

I’ll hope for a win, and settle for a truly competitive effort. Just don’t embarrass yourselves on thanksgiving. We’ve endured enough embarrassment in the MLF era.

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WD's picture

November 23, 2023 at 10:28 am

Obviously things don't look great for the Pack today especially with all the injuries. On the other hand the Bears almost beat the Lions last week Sooo......that's why they play the game! Nothing is obvious in the NFL. Go Pack Go. Happy Thanksgiving!

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