The last time these teams played was 2018, when the Dolphins were decent, the Packers were bad, but Aaron Rodgers still managed to lead the team to a 31-12 win with a couple touchdown passes to Davante Adams. Now, the Packers are decent and the Dolphins are looking strong. Davante Adams is gone, but the Packers have some young receivers that are starting to step up.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL

The Dolphins offense isn't hard to figure out (though it is hard to defend). New coach Mike McDaniels has created a quick, rhythm-based passing attack that allows Tua Tagovoiloa to take advantage of the fasted pair of receivers in the NFL: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

The Dolphins rank 3rd in the NFL in passing yards and 4th in passing touchdowns despite Tagovoiloa missing time early. Hill and Waddle have been near unstoppable with over 2,600 yards between the two of them and 7 touchdowns apiece.

It's top-heavy production, though: their 3rd leading receiver has only 362 yards and they don't throw to their running backs very often.

Their running game, ranked 27th in yards, has been inconsistent throughout the year.

Raheem Mostert is a name Packers fans know all too well. He's been feast or famine with two games over 110 yards and no others over 80. Along the way, he's had a few games where he couldn't even manage 30 yards and a couple more where he failed to break 40. Mostert missed a game a few weeks back with a knee injury. In limited reps, he only managed 67 yards combined in his first two games back. Last week, he seemed to find his explosiveness, gaining a season high 136 rushing yards (most of which came on a 67 yard run)  to go with a 20 yards catch and a 28 yard kickoff return.

If Mostert doesn't break off a big run, the Dolphins run game doesn't go very far. They don't force it, either, ranking 31st in rushing attempts.

The Packers should be able to contain him with Quay Walker's rangy play and De'Vondre Campbell's physical presence.

That just leaves Hill and Waddle - the most fear-inducing, big play receiver duo in recent memory.

While they've been near unstoppable, they can be stopped.

Over the last 3 weeks (all losses), the Dolphins have averaged just 206 passing yards per game. The 49ers, Chargers, and Bills played disruptive on the corners, knocking Hill and Waddle off their timing routes, and slowing the Miami passing game considerably. They've also been able to pressure the quarterback. When Tua has to move off his spot or look for his 3rd or 4th read, the offense stalls. That starts with tight coverage.

Playing aggressive like that comes with risks, though. Waddle caught a 67 yard touchdown last week, Hill had a 60 yard touchdown the week before that, and three weeks ago, Trent Sherfield (their 3rd receiver) had a 75 yard touchdown reception. When teams have managed to limit the Dolphins by playing aggressively, they've opened themselves up to big plays.

And Joe Barry hates giving up big plays. That's why he plays so much soft zone.

Maybe this is the week that changes a little. With a pass-happy team that slices through soft zone and depends primarily on two guys, maybe the Packers could bring in an extra safety and play deep on the back end while allowing their corners to press a little at the line.

Jaire Alexander played great the last time he faced off against Tyreek Hill. It's possible Barry gives him that chance this week.

Whatever approach they take, the Packers will need an inspired performance to slow the Dolphins offense.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

Aaron Rodgers looked the most like his old back-to-back MVP self last week than he has since breaking his thumb.

It was the first week where he didn't tape his thumb since the injury and no balls seemed to flutter out of his hand.

The Packers will need to attack the air - the Dolphins have allowed the 27th most passing yards in the league, including nearly 900 over the last 3 weeks.

With Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs healthy together with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, the Packers have their best chance yet to hit 300 passing yards for the first time this year.

To do that, the offense line will have to continue their strong effort against a unit featuring mid-season acquisition Bradley Chubb (a former Pro Bowler with 8 sacks on the year), rotational rusher Melvin Ingram (a former Pro Bowler with 6 sacks on the year), and rising star Jaelan Phillips (a second year player who made the All-Rookie team last year with 8.5 sacks and has another 7 sacks so far this year). The Dolphins also bring heat from the inside - Elandon Roberts and Jerome Bake (their two starting inside linebackers) have combined for 6.5 sacks on the year.

The Dolphins like to get after the quarterback, so Aaron Rodgers will have to be quick on the trigger with timing routes and his receivers will have to make sure they're in the right place.

Xavien Howard is a fine cornerback, but has had his ups and downs this year and made the Pro Bowl on name recognition more than anything. The other corners are middling, giving the Packers the opportunity for favorable matchups in the passing attack.

The Dolphins have had solid run defense led by mammoth Raekwon Davis and game-wrecking Christian Wilkins. They are strong inside and tough to move. If the Packers will need Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to create some yards on their own, as the line won't be blasting these back very often. Luckily, Jones and Dillon have shown the ability to make yards on their own this year and Christian Watson adds a jet sweep threat that will keep the defense distracted.

Balance is always key, but the Packers may want to lean on the passing game more than usual today.

OTHER NOTES

The Dolphins lead the NFL with 3 fumbles returned for touchdowns this year (out of only 6 recovered fumbles)

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Packers slim playoff hopes have grown with solid wins the last two weeks. The Dolphins strong playoff hopes, on the other hand, have dropped a bit with losses their last three weeks.  

Emotional mindset will play a role in this matchup, and the Packers haven't shown a lot of mental fortitude so far this year.

Aaron Rodgers is the kind of guy who can get healthy and use his weapons to get a magical win, but, as we've seen many times, the defense has to hold up their end of the bargain, and this is not a favorable matchup.

I'm hoping for an enjoyable game and a win... but I can't shake the feeling that the good guys are gonna come up short today.

Packers 27, Dolphins 33