Obsessed With Winning Trades
The need for imaginary victories
By GregMeinholz
Trades, no matter the sport, can be some of the most exciting moments for fans. They can also be the most heartbreaking, depending on who or what is traded. Players and/or draft picks can be sent or received, creating excitement, and that excitement usually depends on whether or not fans feel their team "won the trade."
But, how does a team win a trade?
Whenever a trade takes place, it's always subjected to instant evaluation. The general media will discuss why it works for both sides, the media representing each team will talk about why it works for their team, and then war will be waged between fan bases on social media around the "true winner." The beauty of these arguments is that most of them occur before players traded even take the field for their new team, or draft picks are even selected. It could take years to determine how the trade benefited each team.
If social media existed when Brett Favre was traded from the Atlanta Falcons to the Green Bay Packers for a first-round pick, many would probably be saying "the Falcons fleeced the Packers." The reason was that when that trade happened, Favre was considered a third-string nobody. Many Packers fans reacted negatively to this "gamble" by new GM Ron Wolf. A first-round pick for a backup quarterback? The couch GMs would've been circling the wagons around torching the Packers while throwing a ticker-tape parade for the Falcons.
Of course, we all know what happened after. Brett Favre went on to play for 16 seasons in a Packers uniform, winning three NFL MVP awards and a Super Bowl. On the other side, the Falcons used that first-round pick to select running back Tony Smith, who only played for three seasons in the NFL, mostly on special teams. So, in hindsight, it was the Packers who more or less robbed the Falcons blind. When Brett Favre's Packers career came to an end, they traded him to the Jets for a draft pick that they ended up using to trade up and draft Clay Matthews. So, one could argue that Matthews could technically be tacked on to that trade compensation from Atlanta. But when the trade happened in 1992, you could see the possible benefit to both teams. The Packers got a raw young quarterback to develop with a possible high ceiling, while the Falcons got a first-round pick to hopefully draft a key contributor.
Let's fast-forward 34 years to today. A little over a week ago, the Packers traded Rashan Gary to the Dallas Cowboys for a 2027 4th round pick, in what, to Packer fans, was a shocking trade. It was shocking for the fact that only a few days earlier, it appeared that the Packers had just flat-out released Gary—no compensation in return, and a boatload of dead cap to pay off. So, to Packer fans, and the Packers in general, this was an easy win, a 4th round pick, and saved salary cap space for a guy we thought we were releasing? An absolute win for the team now.
On the Cowboys' side, Rashan Gary restructured his contract to cost Dallas less money, so they just landed a decent pass rusher for a lower price than they would've had to pay in free agency, and it only cost them an early day 3 pick. That could be a small win for them as well, for now.
In theory, this is how all trades should be from the start. Each team receives equal compensation for what they're parting with. Sometimes, that doesn't always work out, given certain circumstances where a player may no longer want to play for a team for contractual or personal reasons. In those cases, the buyer can have a bit of leverage in the trade, in that the seller needs to offload the player or face further drama or financial implications. But other than that, the true "winner" of a trade shouldn't truly be determined until the terms fully take effect and mature.
So, why the need to argue victory immediately after?
We live in a world where many depend on instant gratification, especially in the sports world. Fans want the excitement now, not later. And when they can picture that excitement, and put a name and a face to it, whereas with a draft pick, you are essentially looking at "Player TBD." They don't have the patience to see what may come from a draft pick or a young player who needs some time to develop. In the 1992 case of Brett Favre for a first-round pick, that trade, when you factor in Clay Matthews being the result of trading Favre away, ended up being a 27-year investment that ended when the Packers let Matthews walk in 2019.
The obsession with winning trades from the moment the news breaks isn't going away. It will always be out there, from major news outlets down to the social media comment sections. What feels like a victory in the moment is more an emotional snapshot than the full story. Trades aren't won in the headlines; they're won with on-field performances and other outcomes that no one can fully predict. Until that time comes, the proverbial "trade winner" exists more in the fans' imaginations than reality.
PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.
__________________________
Greg Meinholz is a lifelong devoted Packer fan. A contributor to CheeseheadTV as well as PackersTalk. Follow him on Twitter @gmeinholz and Bluesky @gmeinholz.bsky.social for Packers commentary, random humor, beer endorsements, and occasional Star Wars and Marvel ramblings.
__________________________
Comments (46)
TarynsEyes
March 18, 2026 at 10:58 am
The only type of trade that demands a 'wait and see' is the draft pick guy. When a veteran is the trade focus, there is no grace period. It's a "do what we traded for you" moment.
When the veteran is a failed trade and it seems more obvious sooner than later, the question is why.
This also applies to FA; the veteran of the focus needs to be an upgrade from what you want to move on from, not a lateral/lesser move for finance, popularity, merchandise sales, and knowing the faults of the veteran that will hamper the team's growth and progress.
The trade for Parsons was a trade this team didn't need to do, because it didn't change for the better what really were/are the team's issues then and now.
We could have moved on from Gary, had a first-round pick, had better cap space, and been where they are today, but with a better look at fixing the issues.
Please, before it's said, Parsons' injury didn't change what was more likely the inevitable outcome at the season's end. The play each week, with and without Parsons, told the story clearly all year long if one had opened one's eyes.
At this moment, can anyone say with honesty that this team is better? I can't. We'll see again come camp.
Cheezehead72
March 18, 2026 at 11:05 am
We agree on Parsons. But most here will disagree.
TarynsEyes
March 18, 2026 at 11:32 am
Sadly, it's mostly an 'Eyes Wide Shut' comment group.
LeotisHarris
March 18, 2026 at 01:57 pm
Whoa, whoa, whoa, Taryn! I know TK has his kinks, and I've heard rumors about Coldworld, but I think the rest of the gang here pretty vanilla.
TKWorldWide
March 18, 2026 at 04:44 pm
Hey now! I resemble that remark. 😂
Bitternotsour
March 18, 2026 at 05:27 pm
hold on a minute
WestCoastPackerBacker
March 18, 2026 at 12:27 pm
The whole point of the article is that nobody knows right now. So to say nobody can say the team is better is rather ridiculous. And is a first round pick a given upgrade? Nope. Cuz the guy might not be what everyone thought he was like the first two picks in the draft the year Bakhtiari was drafted. They were not first round impacts for their teams, while Bakhtiari in the 4th round had a far better career.
People constantly complain about Gutekunst’s first round picks so he traded them for an impact player with a high level of competitiveness which it seems this team needs. That kind of trade has worked well for the Rams but it’s unusual in GB. I think it shows urgency by the front office.
But then I am trying to remember something the team has done that you liked and I can’t really remember anything.
TarynsEyes
March 18, 2026 at 01:01 pm
"But then I am trying to remember something the team has done that you liked, and I can’t really remember anything."
That makes two of us, at least.
I'll need to go back a ways, but I pounded the desk for Starks who was the reason for getting to the SB; Fackrell, who many didn't like but has done more than any other drafted at his position; and Janis, who was misused and was the best SPT player we had for years. The release of Perry and Matthews, although too late with both.
The list of things I spoke against immediately is long: Sherrod, Worthy, Perry, Lacy, Stokes, Dix—geez. I'm getting an aneurysm thinking about them. I should stop before it actually happens. Graham, Bennett, Peppers, and more. None of these moves made the team better or reach a higher goal. The only player that did that was Rodgers, which puts Love in the basket of failed acquisitions by draft or FA.
This team, over the last 16 years, should be thankful that the NFCN had been a cluster of crap rivals, which paved the easier route to the little success they achieved. If Rodgers wasn't carrying the team, division titles and those chances in the NFCCG would never have occurred. Tell me I'm wrong.
Since'75
March 18, 2026 at 09:25 pm
Jeff Janis was 'misused'...NICE😀
Janis had a few moments on special teams, until they removed him for some brain dead decisions returning kick offs.
He was a good gunner though
After 4 seasons as a Packer he signed with the Browns in spring, but then he didn't make it to the regular season, i guess the Browns saw enough.
If route running, catch rate, and not fully grasping the offense wasn't important in the NFL, he might have had a longer career.
Sometimes players are a 7th round pick for a reason.
This reminds me, i need new tires.
dobber
March 20, 2026 at 02:58 pm
He was misused. He had great long speed--and he was a local kid so we saw all his college highlights--but he was not good tracking the ball downfield. I remember more than one downfield route where he had his guy beat by two steps and the ball bonked off his helmet or shoulder pads.
You're right: he was not a good route runner, but he could block and wasn't shy about contact. Somehow we thought he needed to be "going long". He needed to be running short and medium crossers and getting the ball in his hands in space--preferably on the run. I think the same thing of Savion Williams based on what we saw in '25...I'm hoping Williams develops a more nuanced route tree.
murf7777
March 19, 2026 at 09:14 am
Maybe you should become a Browns fan because your points would have more validity to them.
Since'75
March 19, 2026 at 08:57 pm
Well, umm, ah, ummm.....👍🤔
Whether i'm a Packer fan, or a Browns fan....i still need new tires champ. 🤷♂️😏
murf7777
March 22, 2026 at 12:03 pm
My point was at Taryn's comments.
dobber
March 20, 2026 at 02:59 pm
That means the other Browns fan would have someone to talk to!! ;)
BuckyBadger
March 19, 2026 at 10:01 am
Team is constantly in the playoffs and has two titles but according to a few they do nothing right.
Since'75
March 19, 2026 at 09:07 pm
No, no, no...the two Titles means.....they used to do things right.
Championships start...at the top.
Right now, i'd like to see a Divisional playoff game victory...then we'll go from there.
Since'75
March 19, 2026 at 09:04 pm
"And is a first round pick a given upgrade?"
With Guter?.....Nope
*********
"People constantly complain about Gutekunst’s first round picks"
NOT ME!
I complain about almost all the picks in the 2018, '19, '20,and 2021 drafts.
How many of those are still with the team.
Hint: One
Draft and develop
golfpacker61
March 18, 2026 at 03:34 pm
When in reality only 50% of 1st round picks pan out anyway, and GBs record the last 10 years has probably been worse than that, then trading away 2 later in the round first round picks and an aging KC for a proven game wrecker was a bargain.
Parsons is the type of player can elevate an average defense to being very good, and there aren't many like him. Myles Garrett is the only better Edge rusher.
This team is better with him than without.
dobber
March 20, 2026 at 03:13 pm
People are going to have to decide what they mean by "pan out". We piss on many of Gute's picks, but I'd argue that his selections in the range you're talking about (late first round) have been mostly successful...probably on par with most GMs if not better.
I usually say "players over picks", so I agree with you on the Parsons acquisition: he's a young guy on a clear HOF trajectory. You don't get many chances at those guys. If he'd been drafted by the Packers, it would've likely required two firsts to get into that position (they picked 29th that season), and THEN at this point they'd have had to give him the contract, too.
BuckyBadger
March 19, 2026 at 10:00 am
Can we say we are better with Parsons? Yes we can. The defense had no teeth before him and when he was there the team was a top contender. That was why the trade was made, to make the team a contender and that was true until the injury.
We are better going forward as well. The defense outlook before him wasn't good at all. It was the same old same old.
the injury 100% changed the season. Look at the defensive stats before and after he was hurt. They are night and day. To say otherwise is to ignore facts.
Cheezehead72
March 18, 2026 at 11:03 am
This is a good take on trades. With some of these trades I try to play the GM and think about who initiated the trade, who was the desperate party, and who was the not so desperate party. I equate these trades to buying a car. The worst thing you can tell a car salesman is that you need to buy a car right away. Its best to go to a dealership and tell them you are just looking around even if you need to buy a car that day. I expect most trades are done by GMs just enquiring about a player. I would hope the Gute's team inquires about every possible trade or acquisition.
The two most memorable trades for me other than the Favre trade are the Hershel Walker (of course) and the Eli Manning trades.
GregC
March 18, 2026 at 11:52 am
I don't see this as an issue. Of course people are going to judge trades as they occur. Those are interesting debates. Just don't take them too seriously.
I also don't think it's fair to say, years after the fact, that the Packers "fleeced" the Falcons with the Favre trade. It was an even value trade. Just give the Packers credit for seeing Favre's potential, coaching him up, and surrounding him with talent.
Thegreatreynoldo
March 18, 2026 at 04:04 pm
Agreed. To me it isn't about instant gratification; rather, it is about judgment and evaluating one's front office.
Someone in Atlanta's front office liked Favre well enough to use pick 33 on him.
They had a journeyman QB in Chris Miller who was never much good. Apparently, Favre used to trash talk his own starting QB and worse, Favre liked the night life in Atlanta. I suspect Favre was a real pain in the ass in Atlanta. Jerry Glanville refused to play Favre and said it would take a plane crash to get Favre on the field. So, Favre threw 4 passes as a rookie, and completed two (2 interceptions, unfortunately). In GB, night life was less (addicts will still find a time and place) and his coaches were Andy Reid, QB coach Steve Mariucci, and head coach Mike Holmgren. Hard to say what would have been absent such a stellar coaching staff. Hard to talk about one team fleecing the other since favre was volatile.
I do think Gute did a great job getting something for Gary. I wrote that Gary was worth $16M on the open market and that's what he adjusted his salary down to. Maybe Jerruh could have just waited, but maybe not. Bottom line, some players need a wake up call. Do not take things too seriously since there is no objective truth out there on this issue.
Since'75
March 18, 2026 at 04:35 pm
Without Harlan and Wolf, we may never have heard of Favre.
He was going nowhere fast in Atlanta.
Not to mention Holmgren, who had the patience of a saint when it came to Favre.
LambeauPlain
March 19, 2026 at 11:09 am
Wolf was with the Jets in 1991 when he finally got agreement by the brain trust to draft Favre in the 2nd round...then the Falcons took Brett just ahead of Wolfman and the Jets.
Ron scouted Favre early and often during his college days at Southern Miss. He commented his arm talent was the best he ever scouted and was enamored with his toughness, already legendary during college. He knew he needed excellent coaching at the next level...and knew Holmgren would be the perfect mentor.
I admit when I heard Wolf traded a #1 for him while driving through Illinois after a sales call, a nearly drove off the road. But it didn't take long to see Ron's vision put in practice: Get an elite QB...then surround him with a great DEFENSE.
Since'75
March 20, 2026 at 02:28 pm
Good post LP....
I didn't really have any problem with giving up a 1st, or at least i was indifferent about it.
I mean....after the 70's and 80's...i wasn't adverse to a bold move.
Brings back pre internet memories.
I used to read the Milw. Journal/Sentinel sports page like a drug addict needed his next fix.
greengold
March 18, 2026 at 12:01 pm
VITA VEA TO GREEN BAY.
There. I put it out to the world. Brian Gutekunst, do it.
TKWorldWide
March 18, 2026 at 12:30 pm
For a 5th, how about that?? 😊🏈😂
Cheezehead72
March 18, 2026 at 12:32 pm
I liked Vea coming out of college.
dblbogey
March 18, 2026 at 01:20 pm
Too bad he was selected before the Packers had a chance at him.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 19, 2026 at 06:46 pm
How many QBs will he step on for us? Lol
Oxymoron 3339
March 18, 2026 at 01:12 pm
It seems like the latest thing I see is projecting trades which is D U M - Dumb. I foresee a day when people start grading the projected trades. That might be a sign of the apocalypse.
GregC
March 18, 2026 at 02:00 pm
Lots of mock drafts include trades now too. I wonder if any of those predicted trades has ever actually happened? I know everyone was blindsided by the Jaguars trading up to get Travis Hunter last year. Trades involve so many unknown factors that they can't really be predicted. It's just a way to spice up a mock draft.
barutanseijin
March 18, 2026 at 02:39 pm
In the end it’s all just idle chit chat and offseason filler.
Since'75
March 18, 2026 at 04:37 pm
^That^
It's called the silly season for a reason.
Mock drafts, mock trades, lunch with the Easter Bunny.
golfpacker61
March 18, 2026 at 03:41 pm
Speaking of trades-Denver gave up the farm for Waddle, like a 1st, 3rd, & 4th this year. Wow!! and I read an article saying GB might be interested in another Miami WR, probably bull$hit. I feel bad for our Malik, he won't have anyone left on offense to help him score.
As for GB, if a player isn't in future plans or if he can be upgraded cheaply, then trade him sooner rather than later. Wickes and Musgrave are tradeable right now because we probably won't resign them next year anyway. Trade them for a player that fills an actual need or for picks to upgrade from them.
golfpacker61
March 19, 2026 at 08:45 am
" and I read an article saying GB might be interested in another Miami WR, probably bull$hit"
Well 1 day later I read an article stating "GB might be wanting to trade a WR to Miami."
Everyday a new "for sure' scenario pops up.
murf7777
March 19, 2026 at 09:21 am
Golf, the one thing about trading a player too soon is when said player breaks out in their 3rd or 4th year. Musgrave doesn’t really have much trade value and Wickes is the type of player that still might break out. Imagine if the Packers didn’t have Jordy because going into year 3 they traded him. More than likely, they don’t win the SB without him.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 19, 2026 at 06:49 pm
I hate trading for picks. At least get a player, then you have some idea what you're getting.
Turophile
March 18, 2026 at 07:08 pm
It's the same with the draft. Every team gets graded by multiple media people the instant the draft is over. Until the players get to play a bit, the grades really aren't worth a lick.
As Greg says, the media needs instant takes. How many times over the decades have we heard the the Vikings have 'won' the free agency period, trades and the draft. I've seen it many times.......and most of the time it never worked out as well as they thought.
Same again with deciding before the season who has the easiest or hardest schedule. I've seen it where a team that supposedly had the easiest schedule before the season started, and was (postseason) found to have had the hardest. That is the unpredictability of which teams will turn out good and which ones will be bad - it isn't necessarily all of the same teams, year on year.
To sum this up in a few words, 'sometimes you've just got to wait and see'.
Since'75
March 19, 2026 at 09:45 pm
Yea...it's laughable when team drafts get 'graded' days after the draft.
It's actually kind of funny in a pathetic kind of way.
Some players win the combine.
Some players win Pro Day.
Some players win mini camp. OTA's.
Some players win pre season. (think Brett Hundley)
Some teams win the off season.
Some mock draft 'experts' win the draft, (by getting 6 of their picks correct)
They should start handing out ribbons or something 🤷♂️
Swisch
March 18, 2026 at 07:39 pm
I'm glad for win-win trades, for both teams and all of the players involved.
golfpacker61
March 18, 2026 at 08:32 pm
Crap, the Browns just signed the Edge rusher I wanted for the Packers, A J Epenesa. Even worse he was really affordable, he signed a contract with incentives to top out at $5 million for 1 year. I can't believe we wouldn't have at least talked to him because of our big need at Edge. Big missed opportunity.
lou
March 19, 2026 at 09:29 am
Interesting to compare the value of trading in the NFL over the last few decades, in most cases the majority of trades are for draft picks rather than players. The changes in the ability to trade is what drove Ron Wolf to early retirement in his own words (and unfortunately put a good NFL coach Mike Sherman in the GM role which he was not cut out for). Ron was the right hand man for Al Davis who just loved to make trades for years.
How many remember Plan B Free Agency ? Using that, trades, the draft, and standard free agency gave Wolf a great set of tools to improve the team. I think the best Plan B free agent the Packers signed was Frankie "Bag Of Donuts" Winters.
LambeauPlain
March 19, 2026 at 11:21 am
Frankie was also the best hire to complete the Three Amigos with Brett and Chewy.
Those 3 partied in technicolor and with Bose speaker sound. Crazy times.
Since'75
March 19, 2026 at 09:38 pm
They sometimes partied in Favre's Milwaukee steakhouse,
They had a private room for themselves and guest.