NFC North Over/Under Predictions
Breaking down and discussing the logic of each team's over/under winning projections.
After having arguably one of the most successful regular seasons as a whole for the NFC North, it is considered that the 2025 season will be a tough campaign based on each team’s respective schedules.
The Packers, Lions, Vikings, and Bears all face top-10 strength of schedule rankings. Last season, three out of four teams hit the over based on their win projections (Lions, Packers, Vikings) with the lone Bears hitting the under after losing 10 consecutive games. Granted, it was a much easier schedule last year.
Are the Bears going to claim the crown as the “offseason champs” again just to have an underwhelming season? Will the Vikings have another lucky season of winning majority of one possession games? Can the Packers rise to the occasion and win games that matter most? Will the Lions win their third consecutive NFC North crown for the first time in franchise history? In chronological order of highest win projection, time to play the over/under prediction game for the 2025 season, NFC North edition:
1. Detroit Lions Over/Under 10.5 Wins.
Prediction: The Lions, tied for the 3rd toughest schedule, will hit the under in 2025 with a record of 10-7. Detroit has a tough slate of road games to start the season with trips to Green Bay, Baltimore, and Cincinnati followed by a date with the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in week 7.
Only three home games in the first seven weeks is challenging, but Detroit’s real test will come in its final 6-week stretch with a Thanksgiving game against Green Bay and a Christmas game at Minnesota. Throw in the Cowboys, Rams and Steelers all in December.
The Lions signed 19 free agents in the offseason including key additions CB D.J. Reed, LB Derrick Barnes, and DT Levi Onwuzerike while losing CB Carlton Davis III as well as offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. Bonus prediction is that Detroit will not win the NFC North division for a third straight year.
2. Green Bay Packers Over/Under 9.5 Wins.
Prediction: The Packers, tied for the 5th toughest schedule, will hit the over in 2025 with a record of 11-6. Emotional bias aside, in order for Green Bay to hit the over they can not afford to go a disappointing 1-5 in the division again (same division record as da Bears, yikes).
After their week 1 matchup against Detroit, Green Bay does not play a division opponent again until week 12 against Minnesota. It is unlikely the Packers will go 10-1 against non-divisional opponents again especially with facing the tough AFC North, so the final seven weeks of the season and facing five division opponents in that stretch will make or break this over prediction.
The Packers key offseason additions include drafting WR Matthew Golden in the first round, signing CB Nate Hobbs and G Aaron Banks as well as re-signing clutch kicker Brandon McManus and LB Isaiah McDuffie. Bonus prediction is that Green Bay will sweep Detroit reclaiming the NFC North crown.
3. Minnesota Vikings Over/Under 8.5 Wins.
Prediction: The Vikings, tied for the 5th toughest schedule, will hit the under in 2025 with a record of 7-10. Minnesota hitting the under feels like a safe bet. Why? Last year with QB Sam Darnold putting up numbers like prime Brett Favre in the regular season was not on anyone’s bingo card, but his departure gives the keys to QB J.J. McCarthy, who is coming off of two knee surgeries from a torn meniscus as a first year starter.
Traveling to London to play in two international games and also holiday games down the stretch will truly test their depth. They did not necessarily have the most impressive draft and this is coming off a season where they went 9-1 in games decided by one score. Overall, they went 5-1 in games decided by a field goal which screams flukey fool's gold season.
Key additions for the Vikings include DT Jonathon Allen, DT Javon Hargrave, and G Will Fries along with re-signing veteran RB Aaron Jones. Bonus prediction is that Minnesota finishes last in the NFC North with a 1-5 division record.
4. Chicago Bears Over/Under 8.5 Wins.
Prediction: The Bears, tied for the 3rd toughest schedule, will hit the under in 2025 with a record of 8-9. Chicago does start off with an easier schedule compared to the rest of the teams in the division. However, 7 out of their final 10 games are against opponents who finished with an above .500 record in 2024 including 4 division games (two against Green Bay in weeks 14 and 16).
Chicago’s offense struggled statistically last season finishing with the lowest total yards per game (284.8) and ranking fifth-worst in scoring (18.2 points per game). Their passing offense ranked 31st (181.5 ypg) and their rushing offense ranked 25th (102.0 ypg). New HC Ben Johnson has a lot of hype to live up to with coaching expectations to elevate QB Caleb Williams in his second year.
There will be progression, but at the end of the day da Bears will still be da Bears. Bonus prediction is that Chicago will lose its final 3 games of the season against Green Bay, San Francisco, and Detroit which will ultimately be the reason why they do not hit the over and miss the playoffs. Congrats on another offseason championship though.
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Mitchell Adams is a passionate lifelong Packer fan bringing a unique West Coast perspective, and also produces multiple podcast platforms, is a published author, and a proud Packers shareholder. Follow him on X at @mitchadams209.
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Comments (7)
LLCHESTY
May 27, 2025 at 03:13 pm
Not apropos of this article but Bill Huber had an interesting article on the this year's DTs with regards to the run D. They finished 3rd in average per carry allowed(4.0 YPC) but were even better than that when Slaton was in the game, albeit at a cost to the pass rush. When Brooks was on the field they were .26 YPC worse than their season average which still would have been good for 9th in the league. But when Wyatt was on the field they were .69 YPC worse which would have been tied for 26th in the league.
Anywhere in the top 10-12 is fine as long as it comes with improved pass rush on early downs but they can't have a return of giving up 200 yards rushing on the regular like they did under Barry. If Wyatt's run defense isn't improved this year it's hard to see him getting a lot of early down snaps.
Finding DTs that are good at defending both run and pass is difficult and one of the main reasons why they should have spent an early pick on a big DT this year when there was a better than average supply of 1Ts with pass rush ability. Hopefully it doesn't mean having to overspend for one next year when they let Clark go.
https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/packers-otas-preview-big-question-at-defe...
Cheezehead72
May 28, 2025 at 07:22 am
They might have spent a 1st on a DT but the top 4 and the only ones graded for 1st round were gone when the Packers picked.
joejetson
May 27, 2025 at 07:42 pm
Not expecting another 3-teams with double digit winning records in the North in 2025.
The Packers will improve on an already good rushing attack with offensive line improvements. Can't wait to see Jacob's three yards past the line of scrimmage before he starts breaking tackles.
Love will have another year of experience, plus two good legs, which will allow him to extend plays.
The WR room will improve. Golden will be a nice addition, and they have to reduce the unacceptable number of dropped passes.
Hafley has shown he knows what he's doing. I expect more defensive improvement in his second year.
The schedule is tougher this year, but its tougher for the other three division teams as well. I see them going 12-5.
Detroit lost both coordinators so I wouldn't be surprised to see some inconsistent play, especially at the start of the season. 11-6
Rookie QB in Minnesota, will make some rookie mistakes, and don't expect them to win many last possession games. 8-9
New regime in Chicago, starting over for an inexperienced QB, another season of failure looming. Caleb Williams is much closer to a Justin Fields than he is to a Jayden Daniels. 8-9.
Brewcity_BearsFan
May 28, 2025 at 08:54 am
What the hell. Let's be contrarian and get flamed.
1. Detroit 11-6. Campbell continues to prove he is th best coach in the North. Despite the tough schedule, and loss of both coordinators, the Lions capture the North again. Gibbs ends up in MVP conversation, Hutchinson wins CBPOY. A sweep of Chicago provides the margin for the Lions to capture the division, and the 3 seed in the NFC.
2. Chicago 10-7. Williams shows vast improvement playing behind a line that protects him. Odunze also makes a second year leap, showing why he was highly thought of coming out of Washington. Not investing in the running game, costs Chicago, as Swift and Johnson just don't have enough between them. Under Dennis Allen, the defense gets more pressure on opposing QBs, and the Bears earn a WC berth. Chicago goes 4-2 in the North.
3. Minnesota 9-8. JJ McCarthy shows enough that the Vikings were right to believe in him. It helps having Jefferson and Addison. Vikings earn the last WC spot.
4. Green Bay 7-10. It all falls apart, starting in camp. Jenkins holds out as he awaits a new deal. O line struggles with injuries a year after being relatively healthy. Love stays healthy, but continues to struggle with consistency. Cooper continues to shine, on a defense that ultimately falls short. Packers to 2-4 in the North, thanks to a sweep of Minnesota. They start the year 0-2, and head into the bye 1-3. Alexander and Doubs are traded mid season. LaFluer gets fired after failing to meet expectations, and GB drafts a QB in round 1.
TarynsEyes
May 28, 2025 at 10:22 am
Certainly not buried in the realm of impossible.
EricTorkelson
May 28, 2025 at 11:33 am
No Flaming here Brewcity, interesting perspective and yes someone is going to fall. I think the Vikings will drop and having JJ McCarthy match what Sam Darnold did last year when he looked MVPsh maybe your biggest reach even more than the Packers Love struggling ? I do like C Williams though, I like the way he competes so realistically they could surpass the Packers. And yes the Lions will be on top again. Keep posting Brewcity keep us cheeseheads honest!
Packerpasty
May 28, 2025 at 11:19 am
Tough schedule, if the Lions and Commanders come in and win those first two games, a long season ahead...Pack has to at least split those and hopefully start beating the Lions again in Lambeau...