I wouldn't argue with this.
A lot of the trimming around the edges is with players that are relatively equal, although in some cases with players who don't have a compelling case to stick.

Thanks Jersey Al. I know it’s a good educated guess. I really can’t find anything to get worked up about. Interesting to see how close you come this year to 100%.

That's at least 95% on target.

1) I agree that Monk is probably not a guy that's ready to play for us, but there's no point in giving up on him after one year. Glad we were able to trade for Kinnard. This team is headed for the Super Bowl, and Kinnard is a better solution for our #7 lineman than the rookie, Belton.

2) I think that we'll keep Wooden instead of Stackhouse, who will end up on our PS.

3) We do not have room for Mecole Hardman, who has not distinguished himself as a receiver.

As good as any guess for the 53. Al is good at personnel evaluation. I do think the roster will be a bit different.

The offense looks closer to who I believe will be rostered (A. Johnson for PS over Abanikanda IF Amar does not make the 53 for the Packers run heavy offense.) OL looks about right with L. Smith...but expect he could be replaced by a waver wire claim. Smith is experienced and capable IOL depth.

Defense is more difficult at the bottom of the depth at all positions. At DT, where is Wooden? Not even on the 53? He looked improved to me during camp. I'd still put him on the 53 over Stackhouse and put the big Bulldog on the PS. LB I think Welch's overall TC performance at LB and STs clearly overshadows Simmons 6th year athletic teasing still trying to play the position. His instincts are terrible at times. Just Lost in Space too often. Hafley will see him as a liability even in emergency snaps so I can't see him playing snaps on D. So is he kept only because Bicassia wants to experiment? Welch is the far more dependable player. Finally at CB I don't keep Ballentine (Bullard is in practice a S/CB now) and use his spot for Amar Johnson...if Ballentine is kept, and I can see it, at least get Johnson to the PS.

Thanks for your prognostication Jersey Al.

Most people have been projecting they keep only three TEs, but I'm on board with keeping four. It appears that Ben Sims has had a decent camp. Six CBs seems like too many, though. I think they would rather use one of those spots for an extra DT or LB. Like Al, I prefer Welch to Simmons, but I think they will go with Simmons if they only keep five LBs.

I would be surprised if Welch does not get picked up by another team if he is released. I believe Simmons would have a better chance of making it through the waivers. But I agree I am afraid that Gute will keep Simmons over Welch and the team will suffer for that decision.

Over all I agree that this is close to the way the Packers will go.

My issue is we grant guys who cant make the team practice squad but atent there better guys being cut elsewhere we could use instead. We listed a raft of failures without consideration of talent coming in. Sure other teams want some of these guys and many accept offers from current teams but the staf must he eying other cuts and saying were in.

That’s a good list. I only have one major quibble: we don’t usually keep 4 true TEs. We used to keep 3 and a F back. That F back role is now partially filled by Brooks it seems.

The missing piece is in line blocking, but our F backs were never anything other than dire at that. Kraft had improved it, but now it should be our 3rd TE. Some say Fitzpatrick can, but he’s high cut and I don’t think he’s good at it at all.
How they approach that will get very interesting because freeing up Kraft means he should not be used that way continually.

I’d use Belton as a 6th OL “TE” while he learns foot technique, but I’d not use Sims, whose blocking had never been as good even as Fitzpatrick’s and has regressed if anything. If they keep a 4th it needs to be a block first outlet. That’s either Lumpkin or Swinson or a waiver/FA pick up.

My guess is they over rate Fitzpatrick in the role (he’s good as a backup passing game piece) and stick with 3 and we again lament how Kraft is forced to chip even when heading out on catching routes. Sims won’t help that, he’s a less good blocker and has been outplayed in the receiving aspect.

I would use that spot on D. I could go one of two ways. One keeping Welch, whom I’d play before Simmons. I think Simmons makes it for Hafley, playing a unique role for an ILB on STs. Alternately I’d keep Wooden. Wooden gives us a light DT focused on penetration. In some games at least we could use that as well as just as depth cover. Less positively, I could also see them bringing in a PR instead though, if they really want to get away from Reed for reasons of risk or production.

On the PS I think you are nearly spot on. I’d keep Amar Johnson. He’d at least offer a change of pace option at RB that we could elevate. However, Abanikanda does little for me as a runner (he’s just ok in a Patrick Taylor sense without the protection excellence) or as a passing outlet. If I kept 2 RBs I’d pick a pure protector (Taylor is injured for the season, but that type). About the only way I’d keep Abanikanda is if no other kick return candidate was healthy.

So either make that 3 from other teams as a result or keep Neyor. 3 WRs is a lot, but he’s got higher upside than any perhaps and, though I’d elevate Johnson first now, may be the better investment.

I’d keep Robinson over Hadden for three reasons, upside, further evaluation (he was rarely targeted which may be a great endorsement or, in preseason, reflect more on QBs) and finally, King and Hadden are too close athletically for me to want both as depth. Hadden to me would be a great reserve teamer but will always struggle at times due to stiffness as well as lack of top end speed.

Overall, those are pretty minor differences. If you end up being 100% right, I’d be pretty happy. If we don’t fall into the 4 TE trap I’d be very happy.

I prefer to create MY preferred roster as opposed to trying to "predict" what Gute will do.
I think quality ST is more important than "potential" this year; this SHOULD be Love's best chance roster for a Super Bowl.

OFFENSE: 25

QB: Love, Willis (2) Elgersma or someone from another team to the PS

RB: Jacobs, Brooks, Wilson, A Johnson (4) (IR - Lloyd) I think Johnson should be tried as a returner--I don't know why he'd be "bad" at it--he has bigger hands than Jayden Reed.

TE: Kraft, Musgrave, Fitzpatrick, Sims (4)

WR: Doubs, Reed, Golden, Wicks, Williams, Heath (until Watson returns) (6) (PUP - Watson)

OL: Walker, Jenkins, A. Banks, Morgan, Tom, Rhyan, Belton, Kinnard, Smith (9) (IR - Monk) (PUP John Williams) I agree that Lecitus Smith as backup C is the best plan.

DEFENSE: 25

DL: Clark, Wyatt, Brooks, Brinson, Wooden (5) Stackhouse to PS

DE/OLB: Gary, Van Ness, Enagbare, Cox, Sorrell (5) (PUP Oliver)

ILB: Cooper, Walker, McDuffie, Hopper, Welch (5) No to I Simmons; I also think Gute will be less focused on "the future" than usual with this year's roster. (if I WAS predicting)

CB: Nixon, Hobbs, Valentine, Melton, King, (5) No to Ballentine after King's last game Robinson to PS is fine as a backup plan, and I expect to add another team's CB to the PS

S: McKinney, Williams, Bullard, Oladapo, Anderson (5)

SPECIALISTS: 3

McManus, Whelan, Orzech

The roster is fluid at the bottom and will change a few times before they kick off next Sunday and will be in flux all year. Who doesn't make it will most likely make the PS as teams don't pouch players from there as nearly as fans seem to think. Most teams realize that all these players are fringe players and teams prefer the ones they trained all camp over bringing in a new players. Reps are very limited during the season.

I like keeping Heath but letting Hardman go worries me a bit. I'd hate to see him returning a punt for a TD against us some day. I think they should give him chance for at least 2 or 3 games. They can always cut him and pick someone else up from the practice squads around the league. Desmond Howard was on the bubble of being cut too until he took a KO to the house in preseason. We don't win that Championship without him.

I would be surprised if Wooden gets cut.

No need for Welch to worry either way--if he doesn't make it here, someone else will want him. They always do.

I like Abanikanda because of his KR potential, but the PS is probably where he'll end up. It's probably Nixon again, so let's hope he makes better decisions on when to field the ball. The Jets game probably doomed Hardman--the memory of that isn't easily erased.

Monk? Know when to cut bait--at this rate it will be a five-year project.

Offense is good.
But - I'm cutting Heath.
Defense - 6 DL-
Wooden and Simmons stay.

Who in the world is Kinnard

I mostly agree with this prediction, but I would keep 6 LB's and go with just 3 TE's, swapping Welsh for Sims. I think they go with Hadden over Ballentine at CB and I expect Wooden makes it over Stackhouse unless they put Sorrel on IR, in which case they both would make the 53.. Monk would go on season ending IR at that point.

I doubt seriously Simmons or Hartman make the 53, rest I am good on. I know Hartman not a pick of AL and agree.

Hey this one was novel in that it has 4 TEs. Then OL Smith is unique as well.

"I don't think the Packers are not likely to give up on Monk", i was a bit confused on this double "not"

I am excited to see Golden eventually paired with a healthy Watson with Golden and Watson wide, then Reed in the slot and Kraft at TE, Jacobs at RB. Seems pretty formidable.

I am pulling for Stackhouse to make the 53 too.

Welch is valuable on special teams he won't last on the practice squad.

I'd agree with every pick Al has made, except that would be the worst thing I could do to him. The 53 for me, after starters, is like trying to guess who Gute's going to draft. It always goes in a different direction. Even the numbers with every group. If I guess 6 WRs they keep 7 and vice versa.

10 years ago:

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2015/9/5/9266603/packers-2015-53-man-...

What an icky team other than QB1, recovers, oline and CB.

Sounds like a very reasonable projection. My only possible objection is that with Lloyd on IR you have three essentially thunder type workhorse Rb's with no lighting. I think the risk reward ratio would have been better to keep 4 Rb to include Amar Johnson as a change of pace speedster. Hope he can stay on the practice squad. Even more I hope we can get Marshon Lloyd back sooner rather than later.

Secondly I would have kept WR Hartman over Heath as Hartman can return kicks and punts He also looked good on the end around running the ball for the offense. Speed matters in this league. Granted he muffed ONE kick return! How many balls has heath dropped? If and when he can get open?

I like Al's thinking. IMO, it starts with the top 35 or so players and reverts to where injuries are and where they fit into the needs of the team in the games to come. Importantly, you only have 8 designated for return IR slots available. Are you seriously, going to place 4 to 5 on DFR-IR to start the year? I have seen a number of writers feel that this is the case, and it may be just that. But for me, you have to ask, "Can I find a player with similar talent to at least help us for this year if need be?" or "Can I stash the player on the roster as inactive for a short period of time?"

I have Watson, John Williams, and Oliver on the PUP to start. Omar Brown to the season ending IR? Lloyd and Sorrell as the 2 DFR-IR spots prior to final roster. You still have Banks, Monk, Anderson, Reed, Wicks, & Savion Williams injured as of last week, and who knows who else this week. With 3 WRs out as of now, I believe the Packers would like to have at least 4 who are healthy on the roster. For me, that means Heath and Hardman make the roster....perhaps C Johnson or Hicks to replace Hardman pending MLFs and Gute's views, but 7 WRs, or a minimum of 6 total - if you keep 4 TEs. You would likely bring up 1 or 2 WRs from the Practice squad, if keeping only 6 on game day assuming these injuries persist.

You also will inactivate at least 4 or more players for Game Days, so you have some room to slot injured players and keep them on the roster if they are out a shorter period than 4 weeks... no need for DFR-IR. Banks, Reed, and Anderson could be DFR-IR candidates from what I see and hear, but I would place no more than 2 of these on that list (probably one!). Monk would not receive a DFR-IR designation with a hamstring injury for me.

Also the Packers like to keep 8 ACTIVE offensive lineman on the roster so that they can dress 48 for each game. If Banks and Monk are inactive, that means the Packers are keeping 10 on the oline and thus, Jennings, Telfort, and/or a player not currently on the team, round out the roster to fulfill 10 after reserves Morgan, Kinnard, Belton and Monk. Jennings makes the most sense to me given the guard and center injuries.

Since two players are placed on DFR-IR, the Packers now have room to move 2 more onto the roster....think special teams. I have 2 of the following 4 on the team pending the seriousness of Anderson's and Sorrell's injuries....Mosby, Baldwin, Ballentine, and/or Sims. Welch over Simmons for me, but I TOTALLY agree with Al's assessment, and Brinson over Stackhouse ( There has been a number of nose tackles released so far if we need to find a replacement in case Stackhouse is claimed). Last, I would not be surprised to see Orzech released to open one more 53 roster spot ,if need be, for another waiver pick-up, then sign Orzech back to the roster.

Al - I would be fine if this was the Packers final roster. There is usually a player or two who makes the team that we're not expecting but they are usually ST or fringe players. Overall if the team remains healthy this is a solid roster. GPG! Thanks, Since '61