What if Gute's Achilles heel drafting is taking guys from top echelon college teams? Teams where a supposed stand out player is made to look significantly better by the quality of talent surrounding him. It might apply to guys like Stokes, Walker, Wyatt, Van Ness.

Off the top of my head I can't name any, but maybe it's time for Gute to focus on the studs whose play jumped off the screen on while playing for some really crappy teams.

Finding one of those guys at Edge or CB would be a nice pivot.

A bit shocked to see an article with, at least a hint of, criticism about how the Packer GM goes about his business in round 1 of the draft on this site.

Gutey has made 9 first round picks as the Packers GM.

We all hope Jordan Love turns into a top tier the starting QB, but the jury remains out on that one.

And, other than Jaire for a year or two before the injury, the 1st round picks have not exactly turned into "field tilters."

The later rounds have resulted in some better players, but true difference makers usually are chosen in round 1. That has not occurred in GB with Gutey in charge.

Hope that begins to change starting in 2025.

If it does not, Gutey may not last another 7 years?

Until recently, his 3rd round picks were embarrassing as well.

Just sign FAs.
Draft BPA.

Wyatt is going to have to stay healthy in 2025. If he goes there are signs he could have a big impact. Love needs to do the same. A couple of months ago, some people were saying Walker was taking that step. He needs to, but given where Cooper is, if one or more of these players has a good year, this conversation likely looks foolish regardless of this draft. If the coaching does prove to have held Van Ness back, even more so.

The last point here portends a much bigger one. If players regress, if a team is second best regularly in terms of tactics and execution, that is a Football 101 sign of bad coaching. If coaching is bad, players look worse as a whole and their improvement is retarded, magnifying the effect over seasons. Bad coaching kills careers on field as much as on. Was that offense really down to the roster? It’s extraordinarily similar to that of 2022 but without Rodgers, despite the addition of Jacobs and more running plays.

Regardless, if players taken in these drafts don’t step up next year we will be starting to teach the point where it won’t matter where the fault lies, change will be coming regardless of whether it’s LaFleur being a dreadful HC, Gute being a poor judge of early round talent or both.

If I had to bet, Gute will more likely to prosper after GB as a true GM than LaFleur as a HC. I think the division outcomes and comments by opposing coaches around the NFC illustrate the bloom is off the flower outside of Lambeau.

I agree. I would like Gute to move away from draft and develop for first rounders. You have 4 years on the first contract and then about 3 years on the second contract because so many become cap casualties in the latter years of the second contract. The 5th year option mostly gets rolled into the second contract.

So you get abot 7 years for a first rounder. And if three are spent on development, you aren't getting a lot for a first rounder.

Time for Gute to have a sense of urgency and oick a pro ready pick

When I watch the offense disintegrate with our top 3 WRs injured and our best O lineman replaced by a guy who can't play, it's hard for me to say that the problem is the defensive guys we're drafting in the 1st round aren't 'good enough'.

Alexander, Stokes, Walker, Wyatt, Van Ness.....all part of the #6 defense. And really, against Philadelphia, it was Walker and Wyatt and Van Ness that held them 22.

The RAS is a measurement of a players athletic ability. The traits that cannot be coached or generally improved. Yes it should be considered but it should not be the only thing. You need to consider the whole picture. I am not hung up on the theory that you have to draft in round one a player that should have a significant impact over a player with more up side. I do believe you need to change up at times your strategy.

It is extremely difficult to draft players because they can be very good in college but unable to make that leap into the pros. I will agree Gute needs to do some self evaluation and an evaluation of his staff and the process and figure out what they are doing wrong in the 1st and 2nd because we need to stop wasting these picks.

I appreciate Austin's articles. This one was exceptionally well-written.

In order for the team to progress, it is important that Gutekunst take accountability for his early round's Draft misfires and change direction. Though,I am not certain where he is in terms of that self-awareness nor am I convinced that a 'higher power' is holding him accountable.

I am thankful, though, that Austin has the courage to address the elephant in the room (one of them-lol)

There is a possibility that Gute is subtly or not so subtly pressuring both MLF and Hafley to keep under-performers (most of his 1st rounders) on the field, ie., Walker, LVN, Clark. I saw this with Savage.

I'm honestly tired of the "Gutey's fixation on RAS" narrative. Do you know who else likes guys with high RAS scores? Every other GM in the league. In last year's draft, of the first rounders who had an RAS score, exactly one was under 8. (Darius Robinson, 7.78). Only two were under 9. (Dallas Turner, 8.86). Everyone else was 9.23 or better. The average was 9.53. At 9.25, Jordan Morgan had the fourth lowest RAS among the 24 first rounders who had an RAS score. High NFL draft picks are likely to be high-end athletes. That's not a very radical idea.

Most people like to see "home runs" - whether it's in baseball or in drafts. However 1st round success can also be defined by how many 1st rounders sign a second contract with their team. Because those who do are called "hits" and those who don't - "misses."

An espn content creator (Paul "Hembo") did a 20 year reserach study (2000-2019) - on 1st round "hits" and "misses." What jumped-out was that teams had more success drafting certain positions than others. Centers had the highest hit rate at 92%. Then OT 59% - G 50% - LB 48% - QB 46% - Edge 44% - DT 40% - CB 38% - RB 38% - S 34% - TE - 33% - WR -27%

Much can be taken from this study - including that drafting is an inexact science and why Gutekunst does not draft Receivers in the first round.

There's nothing wrong with drafting developmental players as long as they develop. Gute's record on this, with his first round picks, has thus far been so-so. The only outright bust was Eric Stokes, and that was after he had a really good rookie season. I wonder what happened there. Maybe it was just the injuries, but he was struggling before the injuries. Gary is a solid player, but the ACL injury may have robbed him of explosiveness. He doesn't have those flashes of physical dominance anymore--not that he ever had a lot of them, but there were some good moments early in his career. Now he is just a fundamentally sound high-effort guy.

It would be interesting to compare Gute's first round picks with those of all other GMs during that time. He might not look as bad as we think.

That said, I agree that this is the year to go after an immediate impact player in the first round. The championship window is open.

A big thumbs up for this article as it summarizes what most of us have been thinking for years.

Just a couple of notes:

The high RAS strategy seemed to have worked out well with some of the middle and late round picks like Wicks, Tom, Valentine, and for a huge run-stuffing DT, Slaton.

Curiously enough, when Gute had the chance to draft a center with a perfect 10 RAS (Humphrey), he passed and took Myers instead, who didn't test at all.

Once Gute decides to dabble in free agency, RAS thankfully is forgotten. Za'Darius Smith, 3.75, and Xavier McKinney, 5.84. Preston Smith, though, was up there at 9.8. So you would think there would be a lesson here in not to being overly infatuated with these athletic measurements.

Gute deserves credit for navigating through the end of the Rodgers era and returning us to playoff status immediately. But being a championship-caliber GM is a whole different story. As noted, changing his approach in the early rounds to drafting players with proven technical skills and a chance to make an impact early is necessary. He's also been hesitant to add veterans via trade or the waiver wire that have become available late in the season.

It's also worth wondering if there isn't a fuzzy gray area here between GM and coaching since MLF doesn't report to Gute. According to Gute, "...We've got a bunch of good guys in that locker room, we've got a bunch of talented guys in that locker room, and it's time we started competing for championships, right?" So does he think MLF and his staff is maximizing that talent? Hmmm...who knows. I honestly can't wait until we get the new president in, and hopefully, establish a direct chain of command.

Gutekunst is not 'infatuated' with athletes. I don't deny he likes them, but look closer.

Sure he likes high level athletes in round one, but to be considered a round one pick, a prospect usually IS a high RAS guy - it is very often exactly that, that sets their game apart and makes them a consideration for round one.

Another consideration as to why Gute does things the way he does, is draft position. Imagine two high level guys playing the same position, both in consideration for a round one pick. One elite athlete has been very productive in college - a great resume. The other guy has equally elite athleticism, but is a 'greener' product who needs some time to reach his ceiling.

In any sane world the productive guy is probably gone way before the time the Packers pick. Everyone wants the Bosa's or DeForest Buckners and they are long gone when the packers pick (which is usually somewhere in the mid 20's). So Gute tries to get a guy who (he hopes) can be equally good once he has had some training and experience in the NFL. It hasnt been an especially productive strategy so far, but I can certainly see WHY he does what he does.

He's trying to find difference makers when he only has later picks to play with - and trading up high into round one from the 20's is a prohibitive cost in picks - even assuming a team he wants to trade up with even wants to trade down with that elite player sitting there.

If the Packers were more of a boom or bust team, they would sometimes get a high pick and have the option for an NFL-ready difference maker, but for the best part of 30 years they almost never suck badly enough to get a top five pick.

Another strategy (a la Rams) is to give up a premium (1st round) pick for a veteran. While that tactic can get you a player who is a top guy at his position, he will almost certainly be a second or third contract guy, meaning he will be expensive, very expensive, You never have him when his value is highest (ie playing really well on a comparatively cheap rookie contract) and his age means you have him for a shorter time than a rookie would give you.

Also you have to actually pry him loose from a team that knows exactly how good he is and usually wants to keep him. sure there are scenarios where an elite player is let go, like the team being in salary cap hell, but they are rather rare.

Gute may tweak his first round strategy over time, he probably self-scouts the same way most coaches do. But, I suspect, he won't change much. Maybe all he needs is better luck, maybe he would have better success if he pivots more towards getting a lesser athlete with higher college production (in effect a lower-ceiling higher-floor guy). I don't know. Let's see how this draft pans out.

Kyle Shanahan gave up a lot of resources to go after Trey Lance. I read that Trey reminded him of a young, raw Patrick Mahomes and he thought he could transform him into Pat Mahomes 2.0 in one year-just like Pat.
Sometimes coaches/GMs don't get it right, however, there is an objective pattern with Gutekunst.

Great article Austin - well written, detailed and insightful. Bottom line is that Gutekunst needs to do better. Even when Rodgers was recording back to back MVPs management did little to maximize our chances for a deep run. I'll always remember the Amari Rodgers pick as the sign of "good enough".

Ed Policy may have some tough decisions in 2026.

While I agree that Gutey does like to "swing for the fences" in the 1st round vs. maybe going with a safer option. Keep in mind the "hit" rate on those selected in the top half of the draft is only about 50%. The Packers have only picked in that range twice in his drafts. Overall, his drafts have been in the top 5-10 in the league on a consistent basis, which is very impressive based upon where the Packers are usually picking. I would rather he continue to take picks with higher ceilings, than those with higher floors, but lower ceilings.

From another viewpoint, the Bucks took a big swing taking Giannis 15th overall. Skinny 18 year old. I’m not much of an NBA fan, but I have doubts that the 14 guys who went before him are better players. Unfortunately, for every Giannis there are how many Yi Jianlians? Risk vs reward.
We love the big swing that results in a homerun. Not so much the strikeouts.

To bring the point home, I would like to read who the author thinks would have been better picks at the given draft position for each of the last ten years.

Gutekunst is OK. The team has consistently made the playoffs under his watch. However, part of that success was due to the incompetence around him in the NFC North. Now that the division is more competitive, he and the rest of the staff will get more careful scrutiny — and rightly so.

And JL’s RAS… is at the bottom of the list…

Z Smith… RAS. Score???… her see why he’s reacting the way he does now….

I'm finding it ironic that Tee Higgins is being mentioned as a potential target for the Packers when he could have been drafted instead of Jordan Love. Maybe Higgins could have made the difference during Rodgers' last two MVP years.

I read an article that seemed to say that the average GM should hit on 50% of first round picks. Two or three out of nine puts Gute firmly in the bottom half.

I’m reminded of Max Mc Gee who said, when told how fast, strong and agile first round draft choice Alphonso Carreker was said, “Yeah, but can he play football?”

Gute, can they play football?

Ron Wolfe often said 1st round picks are over rated. If you get 3 starters in a draft, you had a successful draft. If you look at the 1st round draft picks starting back to Ron Wolfe, you will see about 90% of all 1st rounders lasted 3 or less years in Green Bay. This is has been true with Mike Sherman, Ted Thompson and now Brian. This is not to say that greater success would not improve the team. But it just shows that it is difficult to find 1st rounders that fit your team and are successful at the next level. And 1 final thought Gute has said he does not use RAS scores in his evaluation. So fun numbers for people from the outside to point too, but not necessarily a legit point.

Quite the conundrum
In Philly Howie apparently plugs in 1st rounders with veteran
Brian added two veterans and hit the home run with both
Draft & develop sets up the cake yesterday we need the icing and veterans can do it
Interesting to see how this year plays out cap wize
Finally out from under the Aaron Rodgers extortion money