Is Offensive Balance Overrated for the Packers?
Simple math leads to obvious conclusion: Green Bay goes as Rodgers goes.
By ChrisWanless
“The best defense is a good offense.”
Originally pertaining to warfare and more officially known as the Strategic Offensive principle of war, the phrase has been around for hundreds of years.
More recently though, it’s phrase many would use to describe the status of the Green Bay Packers.
Packer fans are no strangers to offensive proficiency, especially during Mike McCarthy’s tenure as head coach. Green Bay has finished in the top 10 in yardage and scoring offense in each of McCarthy’s 11 seasons at the helm. They’ve managed to put together a solid core of offensive playmakers each year, and, oh yeah, there’s that quarterback, too.
Even after finishing the 2016 season red hot, the Packers still saw it necessary to add weapons to their offense in free agency. Of course, some see that as a testament to the team’s willingness to evolve, while others see it as an admission that they may need their offense to do all the heavy lifting in 2017.
It’s no coincidence the most prolific offensive seasons of the Mike McCarthy era came in 2011 and 2014, both of which ended in MVP honors for Aaron Rodgers.
Also not surprisingly, the common thread throughout the run of eight consecutive playoff berths the Packers are currently enjoying is Rodgers. To say the Packers go as he goes is quite possibly the most obvious conclusion one could draw in the history of sports.
What is interesting, though, is just how much the Packers have leaned on him over the years. A quick look at the year-to-year stats of Green Bay’s offense with Rodgers in command provides a number of eyebrow-raising stats. Most interesting to me, however, are the average passing and rushing numbers throughout his time as the starter.
Since Rodgers took the reins in 2008, the Packers have finished in the top ten in passing eight times in nine seasons. The single outlier was 2015, a head-scratcher of a year that marked the beginning of the great “What’s Wrong With Aaron Rodgers” debate. (As it turned out, “nothing” was the correct answer to that question.)
Here’s the interesting part – in those same nine seasons, the Packers have finished in the top 10 in rushing just once. That was the 2013 season, in which Rodgers missed seven games due to a broken collarbone.
When you give it more thought, maybe those numbers make total sense. After all, it stands to reason that you’d want your best player to have the ball in his hands as often as possible, and that philosophy would skew the numbers in that player’s direction. Now, those are also simple numbers and far from deep-dive analytics, yet they paint a simple, clear picture. Still, for as much as the coaching staff harps on offensive balance, the Packers have seemed to do just fine without it.
Now, those are also simple numbers and far from deep-dive analytics, yet they paint a simple, clear picture.
Comments (10)
PatrickGB
April 05, 2017 at 01:32 pm
I just say, stick with what works. But a true WCO is effective and time consuming keeping our defense off the field. That is almost a good defense. Leave the fast pace attack for "catching up".
MarkinMadison
April 05, 2017 at 01:57 pm
Are we talking about defense v. offense or run v. pass when we are talking about balance here?
Wait, it doesn't matter. Here is why. QBs in the back half of their 30s typically require a strong defense and running game to succeed. Think of every SB winning team the Broncos have ever had, whether under Elway or Manning. Or look at Favre in Minnesota. Or Brees in New Orleans.
Rodgers isn't quite there yet, but we are getting closer every year. To expect him to continue carrying the team with his trade-mark throws-on-the-run and QB scrambles as he gets older is just foolish. Look at what happened when he was nicked up in Seattle.
And did we mention this is Lambeau. We want to win at home in December, right? Rodgers says he wants home playoff games, right? Better have a running game. The best defense may be a good offense, but unlike in football, you don't have offensive and defensive sides of the ball in war.
mattgsx
April 05, 2017 at 07:49 pm
I think we are a few years away from this point, but the trend of repeated tissue injuries is a bit troubling for a mobile QB. I think GB has the pieces needed for a strong running attack that complements the passing game. Defense? I guess we'll see.
NickPerry
April 05, 2017 at 04:11 pm
I saw something in the new CHTV Draft Guide I found interesting this morning as I read the first article. In this piece it mention how Ty Montgomery only touched the ball 4 times ( 1 rush 3 catches) in the NFC Championship game. That is NOT enough touches for a guy like Montgomery, especially the way the Packers use him. I understand that game got out of hand quickly, but it's not the only time the Packers seem to "Forget" about the running game.
I have no doubt the Packers will bring in a "bigger back" either with a draft choice or UDFA. I'm still of the opinion Montgomery can handle a bigger workload if given the chance. He's 6 feet tall and close to 225. He's trained to be a RB this offseason and knows the job is his at this point. I'm looking forward to what he looks like this season.
BTW.... The new CHTV Draft Guide (What I've read) is great!! If you didn't order I'd recommend it!
PackEyedOptimist
April 05, 2017 at 05:42 pm
I absolutely believe offensive run/pass "balance" is over-rated. I also believe team offense/defense balance is over-rated. That doesn't make them a bad idea, it just means I think they should be a "general rule" and not considered "carved in stone." If you are overwhelmingly winning one of the two, you don't need balance.
PackEyedOptimist
April 05, 2017 at 05:46 pm
In fact, if you are really great at one of the things, the STATS will make you look "balanced." The other team can't score if you always do long, successful drives--your defense will look great...on paper.
Hematite
April 05, 2017 at 06:20 pm
IMHO the Green Bay Packers need more balance between offense and defense.
Thompson has been abominable at building defense.
Thompson has to go before we can hoist another Lombardi.
croatpackfan
April 06, 2017 at 03:23 am
I can almost agree with you. That 2014 season. Ted Thompson ruined everything. The largest mistakes he made was not covering "receiver" on that fake punt, not blocking on on-side kick, but trying to catch the ball and, the largest mistake, beginners mistake, when he did not cover the middle of the field, but side (as CB) on the last throw from Wilson. So many years of experience and making that kind of beginner's mistakes...
We all knows that Packers were the best NFL team that season!
croatpackfan
April 06, 2017 at 03:18 am
Balance is necessity. Ground game opens air and vice versa. Only question is would you force the balance or you'll go with specific situation in each game.
My opinion is that you should go with hot hands. Once it is ground, another time it is combination, than it is through air. Balance should be achieved on longer period and more games...
I think Packers will be built well for both O types.
LayingTheLawe
April 07, 2017 at 08:53 pm
The best offensive year and the team record point total occurred when there was no running game at all. So yes for a QB like Rodgers the idea of balance is overrated. You'd like the team to be able to make 3rd and 1 by running and to keep the opposing defense off balance by being effective. But the Packers are not going to be a 30 runs per game team with Rodgers playing.