Forget WR1, do the Packers have a D1?
Let's focus on what really matters.
By JosephR
The Packers are going to kick off the NFL season tomorrow night against the Eagles, and while Matt LaFleur has had his hands full with answering questions about who's the #1 WR, what he really should be answering is how ready this revamped Packers' defense is.
While there has been some attention given to the linebacker rotation, I'd imagine the more savvy Green Bay fans are curious about what they'll see out of this defense now under new management via Jeff Hafley, formerly of Boston College, Ohio State, and most recently the 49ers in the NFL.
As a Platinum Member of the Get Kenny Clark Some Help Club, I love the scheme change, but have the players truly bought in? CB1 Jaire Alexander seems to think so, but an early season test against the Eagles who are just two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance will stand as the evidence.
While some pundits have downplayed the Eagles' offensive firepower, anyone who's suffered through Joe Barry's abysmal run defenses will probably need some Glenfiddich 21-YR to sleep soundly tonight knowing Saquon Barkley is awaiting behind a slightly diminished but still formidable offensive line. With Jason Kelce no longer a factor, I expect TJ Slaton, whose true power should finally be realized in a 4-3, to set the tone early on while the loveable Clark sends the Eagles' offensive interior reeling. A rotation of Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness, Preston Smith, and Kingsley Enagbare should keep Jalen Hurts honest and contained....if Brenton Cox Jr can find his way onto the field, expect Slaton's former teammate in Gainesville to have a little extra "juice" to his get off when the two former Gators line up together to "chomp" down on the offense.
Whether it's the Eagles, the Bears, the 49ers, etc...the key to this year's defense being successful and allowing the Packers, in general, to come out the gate hot, all starts with the defensive line.
If the Packers' defensive line can dominate, or at least consistently win in the trenches in the way I think they can, the Packers could etch out a comfortable margin, they might need it depending on the performance of the linebackers and the secondary, which will especially have its hands full with A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith followed up with a helping of Dallas Goedert.
Outside of the run defense overall, I believe General Manager Brian Gutekunst is leaning on Hafley to rehab his former 29th Overall Pick and Cornerback Erick Stokes before hitting the reset button and drafting a CB early next year (the 2025 Draft Class is definitely the class to need one). And while I love the proposed combo of Xavier McKinney and Javon Bullard, I don't think for a second that Gutey won't swing for the fences again if he doesn't like what he sees on the field in 2024. The Linebacking Corps will probably have the longest leash given their relative experience and draft capital; with the exception of Quay Walker who should absolutely blossom under a scheme that I anticipate should allow him to think less, and metaphorically "let his hands go".
On paper, this seems like a defense destined to go above and beyond what we've seen from the Barry and Pettine Eras, but can they? Is this a defense that can compete with the best offenses the NFL has to offer? The average finish of the past 10 Super Bowl Champions in team defense is tenth. I believe Jeff Hafley has the answer, and we'll get a little bit of that answer tomorrow night in Sao Paulo.
Are you a part of Team #InHafWeTrust? Be sure to let me know in the comments, here's to a successful season.
#GPG
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Joseph has been an avid fan of the Green Bay Packers since 1997, citing an affinity for dairy products during his childhood and his favorite color, green. Born in Jacksonville, FL, Joseph currently is an Active Duty servicemember in the U.S. Armed Forces. Joseph considers himself a lifelong fan of the game of football, competing since his youth well into adulthood. When it comes to the Pack, Joseph is particularly impassioned about the NFL Draft and collegiate scouting process, and will contribute regularly on CHTV.com leading to that year's upcoming Draft. You can follow him on Twitter at @joeyreyallday.
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Comments (5)
D_Dave_Wittmann
September 06, 2024 at 04:54 am
#InHafWe(I)Trust
How about this as a possible run-tough D-line:
Wyatt, Clark, Slaton, Gary?
#GPG
Oppy
September 06, 2024 at 07:55 am
I'd take Preston Smith over Rashan Gary every day of the week if we're talking about a front exclusively built for stopping the run.
I might even go with either of our young 1st year DL too- Wooden or Brooks.
Gary is a terror in the pass game, but if it's 4th and inches with the game on the line, I don't think I'd want him on the line with his hand in the dirt. I'd definitely have him standing up as a LB behind the beef and let him find a hole to plug, though.
GregC
September 06, 2024 at 08:22 am
Gary loses contain sometimes, but I'm hoping this is correctable. Maybe the new defensive scheme will help. He's plenty stout to defend the run. I admit I haven't watched him closely on those short yardage plays, so maybe you know something I don't know. Is he getting pushed around?
Oppy
September 06, 2024 at 03:01 pm
Just my personal observations and opinion I guess. But your questioning led me to check and see if I could find something concrete on Gary’s run defense, so I googled Gary run defense stats and one of the first relevant results was an article from Sports Illustrated that featured a player by player breakdown of what Hafley is working with going into 2024. The following excerpt was specifically on Gary’s run defense performance:
“He averaged a tackle for every 13.3 snaps. His average tackle on a running play came 0.7 yards downfield – by far the best on the unit (Lukas Van Ness, 2.4 yards) and seventh among all NFL edge defenders. However, the run defense was 0.31 yards worse per snap when Gary was on the field, according to league data. He missed 11 tackles (20.0 percent) and was guilty of five penalties (the other outside linebackers were guilty of three combined).”
So, first take away- when Gary DOES make a run stop, it’s a very good average in terms of yards from scrimmage. However, he flat-out whiffs on 1 in 5 attempts to tackle the ball carrier, and overall, the packers run defense is better when he’s not on the field. There’s not enough information here to sort out exactly -why- those things were true in 2023, however.
Take from it what you will, I love rashan Gary, but when I think Gary and watch him play, I don’t think he’s one of our best options to stop the run. He’s not bad at it necessarily, but he’s not one of our top run defenders by any stretch of the imagination.
GregC
September 06, 2024 at 07:17 am
This defense is like a chemistry experiment that could produce wonderful results or could blow up in everyone's faces. With the talent they have, it should be at least a decent defense, but we can't even be sure of that. Jeff Hafley's resume is pretty thin for an NFL defensive coordinator: several stints as an NFL defensive backs coach for teams with losing records, one year as co-defensive coordinator at Ohio State, then an unsuccessful stint as head coach at Boston College. His defenses there were nothing special, but then, neither was the talent. My hope is that the Packers have snagged a young coach just as he is ready to blossom. He says all the right things, he seems to know what he is doing, and the players like him. Let the experiment begin!
One thing I definitely like is the switch to the 4-3. For a couple years, I've thought the Packers' personnel was better suited for a 4-3. It's potentially a great thing for Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness. I agree with Joseph that the performance of the defensive line is crucial in this game against the Eagles, even more than usual. We've seen the Eagles run all over the Packers, and that was before they had Saquon Barkley.