It’s not a “ bloated expectation “ to think that the 13 th pick in the draft should be a starter. Nor for the fifth pick to be a difference maker instead of a JAG. These are reasonable expectations. The Packer media should stop making excuses for poor drafting.

Your point framing the question as one of "reasonable expectations" for players taken in the first half of the first round is exactly right. Hawk was durable and made a million tackles, but so many of them were 5 or 10 yards downfield, not in the opponents' backfield. He's wasn't a bust but, as you say, JAG. Who knows what Van Ness is besides a slow learner?

Fan expectations for the 13th pick are that he should be an impactful starter and fairly quickly at that. I wonder what Gute's expectations were? Gute had to know he was drafting a project - a young kid who was coming to the pros after his sophomore season in college. There are very few players who turn pro (in football) that early. Physical and mental maturity are musts for professional football players and I suspect age caused LVN to be a little short in both categories. Gute had to know this and probably had slower expectations for LVN than most fans (it should also be noted that the Packers had R. Gary and P. Smith as starting OLBs at the time LVN was drafted so there was no obvious starting spot for him to fill - Gute was drafting for the future).

Since this year will be the year LVN would normally have turned pro had he followed the traditional trajectory of playing four years in college, it is reasonable to expect him to be fairly NFL ready now. This may be the year both fan and Packer GM expectations coincide - it is time for LVN to prove he was worth the 13th pick in the draft.

AJ Hawk seemed a good teammate. A good guy and close buddy of Rodgers. And he certainly was not a difference maker on the Packers Defense.

Far from it...it was well known when you played against Capers' D with Hawk on the field...the OC's ran right at him. He would almost always get washed out of the play 5-10 yards beyond the LOS.

Van Ness is not yet in Hawk's milquetoast style of play...but his new coach needs to quickly teach him more effective moves than his sole reliance on the bull rush.

Hawk was available, I will give him that.

Two things that surprised me about him:
1) He looks much better with a haircut
2) He used the shocker symbol during a game.

Okay, barkeep...I'll take another Manhattan and pass the pretzels and mustard down here please. Oh, and before you sit down, please let that hottie down the bar that the next one is on me. As in, 151 poured in my lintless bellybutton.

That'll do,
Big sexy

Hawk almost never missed practices or games and is our all time leading tackler. He was unfairly maligned.

I'm not here to praise Hawk, but I sure won't ignore the 3 down linemen on Defense that thought they were bullfighters doing great o'leys against the run during many a season.

Neither are/were considered the significant strength of the defense.
Teams generally have more success by trading down in the draft.
Prioritizing a specific player, has been the packers mistake since 2010.
Van Ess is a bust. And the only way to stop the mistakes is Free Agency.

The Rashan Gary pick should be a more apt expectation for LVN - than Hawk. Both are DEs - taken almost in the same spots in the first round (12th and 13th) - whose impressive traits and talents did not match their college production. Both were also considered "projects" coming out of College. Gary's first 2 years as a Packer were underwhelming - as have LVN's. Gary's breakout year was not until his third - when he was 24 years old. This will be LVN's third year as a GBP - who will be 24 years old at the start of training camp. I'm not expecting LVN to be named to the Pro Bowl in his third year (like Gary) - but he has been following a similar trajectory - which infers a breakout year - of some sorts.

I haven't seen LVN overthinking or not instinctively reacting before he bull rushes. If anything, he's been a one-trick pony who can't get more snaps because he's a one-trick pony.

I do agree with Cory "...if Van Ness isn’t able to consistently get on the field in his third season, that would be a loss." I'm not sure if Van Ness *is* able to get on the field in his third year, that would be a win.

Bloated Expectations would be a great screen name (Pantz, need a troll account?)

As for the much-maligned AJ Hawk. Here are the fifth overall picks since 2000. He was no Mark Sanchez, that's for sure, nor a Ja'Marr Chase. You be the judge:

Year Player Position Team
2024 Joe Alt OT Los Angeles Chargers
2023 Devon Witherspoon CB Seattle Seahawks
2022 Kayvon Thibodeaux DE New York Giants
2021 Ja'Marr Chase WR Cincinnati Bengals
2020 Tua Tagovailoa QB Miami Dolphins
2019 Devin White LB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2018 Bradley Chubb DE Denver Broncos
2017 Corey Davis WR Tennessee Titans
2016 Jalen Ramsey CB Jacksonville Jaguars
2015 Brandon Scherff OT Washington Redskins
2014 Khalil Mack LB Oakland Raiders
2013 Ezekiel Ansah DE Detroit Lions
2012 Justin Blackmon WR Jacksonville Jaguars
2011 Patrick Peterson CB Arizona Cardinals
2010 Eric Berry S Kansas City Chiefs
2009 Mark Sanchez QB New York Jets
2008 Glenn Dorsey DT Kansas City Chiefs
2007 Levi Brown OT Arizona Cardinals
2006 A.J. Hawk LB Green Bay Packers
2005 Carnell "Cadillac" Williams RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2004 Sean Taylor S Washington Redskins
2003 Terence Newman CB Dallas Cowboys
2002 Quentin Jammer CB San Diego Chargers
2001 LaDainian Tomlinson RB San Diego Chargers
2000 Jamal Lewis RB Baltimore Ravens

In the modern digital age, coupled with social media, a mentality has developed that if a player isn't an All-Star out of the gate they're a bust. Some players are busts. In 2012 GM Ted Thompson drafted a 'tweener' named Nick Perry with the 28th pick in the first round. One pick later the Vikings picked a guy you might have heard of named Harrison Smith, a safety. Perry is long out of the league and Smith is likely headed for the NFL's Hall of Fame. That's the breaks of the draft. About half of the players don't stick long. The Perry-Smith results reveal the crap shoot that's the draft. The Jordan Morgan jury is still out but Graham Barton was the next pick and Xavier Worthy was drafted two picks later. Crap shoot.
That story is a backdrop on the Lucas Van Ness pick. GM's get enamored with a person's physical abilities and as the adage goes, can't see the forest for the trees. Van Ness played a similar role at Iowa, never starting but showing some ability against the Big 18 schools. The guy can play but not dominate--yet. I caution that Rashan Gary didn't flash much until his third year. There were whispers of 'bust' Gary's first year. But Van Ness must show he can be something other than average next season. If the Raiders decide to move Maxx Crosby, I would offer Van Ness(among other players-picks) in exchange. I doubt they will move Crosby, one of the leagues best players.

Regarding Hawk, he was a consistently good linebacker against the run but proved to be a liability against the pass. But his durability was his trademark. He offered a tough inside presence on a defense that lacked toughness overall. I don't hold it against him that he's blowhard Pat McAffee's sidekick on the podcast.

A confusing and premature article by the author. If the topic was to generally present the expectations of a 5th overall pick v. a 13th overall pick - a study utilizing historic data must be included. Some of the commentors have correctly done this in their posting - thus offering a greater perspective. What lacks credibility is trying elevate Hawk - whose NFL story has been completed - while depressing another player (LVN) - whose story is still being written. In doing so, the author has compared apples to pears.

The reality is that Hawk's prolific College career never fully translated to the NFL. To summarize - his Pro career was far less than his College one. Conversely, LVN never acheived an outstanding College career. He was drafted more for his potential than his performance.- similar to Gary - whom I proffer has had a better Pro career than College. I still look forward to the same for LVN.

AJ Hawk was "O.K." ....made a ton of tackles and was rarely hurt but most of his tackles were beyond the line of scrimmage....the very best thing about AJ Hawk is that he gets to be on a TV show where he doesnt ever have to say a word, just nods his head once in awhile...now thats cool..