Chiefs, Eagles Show Gutekunst That Packers Have Options
Few topics have been on Packers fans minds as much as the debate on which way to go with the quarterback position. The Chiefs and Eagles are going to the Super Bowl this year, and they show the Packers have options.
By BruceIrons
With Aaron Rodgers's monster contract avalanching down on the Packers salary cap and Jordan Love's 5th year option decision looming, things look uncertain in Green Bay.
Can the Packers field a competitive team with Aaron Rodgers making so much money? Can they afford to trade him away, given how big of a cap hit they would take to get rid of him? Will they have to cut Jordan Love loose just to afford Rodgers's bizarre, uphill contract?
The Packers only have two realistic options (because I don't think dropping Rodgers and Love is a realistic option): keep Rodgers and start him or trade Rodgers and start Love.
Their first option is move forward with Aaron Rodgers. You know, the Super Bowl winning quarterback who has won 2 of the last 3 MVPs.
Detractors point out his monster contract and say that there's no way the Packers could field a competitive team with such a big cap hit.
That's just not true.
First off, fielding a competitive team is about a lot more than just salary cap structure. Even with a large quarterback cap hit, a team can put together a championship roster.
Case in point: the Kansas City Chiefs, who play in the Super Bowl on Sunday.
Patrick Mahomes has a $35.8M cap hit in 2022 and a $46.8M cap hit in 2023. That's a healthy clip more than Aaron Rodgers's $28.5M cap hit in 2022 and his $31.6M cap hit in 2023.
For all the talk about how Aaron Rodgers's cap hit makes it impossible to field a good team, the Chiefs are showing it's possible.
How did they do it?
They found role players, guys stepped up, coaches put together great gameplans, and players executed.
None of it has anything to do with salary cap "magic."
The Packers can win if they move forward with Aaron Rodgers.
But what if they don't?
What if they decide to trade Rodgers? Then, the Packers can move forward with Jordan Love on a rookie deal... but they'll have a huge dead cap crater from Aaron Rodgers. The Packers would have about $40M in dead cap in 2023 if they moved on from Rodgers. Can they field a competitive team with that albatross on the budget?
Again, fielding a competitive team is about a lot more that just salary cap structure. Even with a large dead cap hit, a team can put together a championship roster.
Case in point: the Philadelphia Eagles, who play in the Super Bowl on Sunday.
Sure, they have a quarterback on a rookie deal in Jalen Hurts, but they are also saddled with nearly $65M in dead cap hits (over 60% more than the hit the Packers would take from trading Rodgers), accounting for about 29% of their salary cap.
How did they do it?
They have great players on cheap deals in a number of positions. Drafting well has had a big impact on this team. Their offense features 10 starters that were drafted by the Eagles.
The Packers found some cheap, young starters in last year's draft with Quay Walker, Devonte Wyatt, Christian Watson, Zach Tom, and Romeo Doubs. If they trade Rodgers this year, they'll get some more draft picks (in addition to picking 15th overall) to bring in more cheap, young talent. Another draft like that would go a long way in returning them to championship form.
Either way, the Packers are in good shape to make another Super Bowl run next year.
Whatever path they take, this year's Super Bowl teams prove it can work.
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Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.
Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.
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Comments (119)
Cheezehead72
February 10, 2023 at 06:17 am
With all due respect your article uses faulty logic. First Mahomes is 27 years old and Rodgers is 39. Mahomes and Rodgers have both won 1 SB but the big difference is Mahomes is 10-3 in post season and Rodgers is 12-10. Rodgers lead us to a sub 500 season last year where Mahomes is leading his team to the SB. I do not care about how many subjective MVP awards Rodgers has. As a fan I care about championships. Rodgers cap hit is not worth his value and we saw it this last year. MLF's offense needs a young mobile QB that can run the RPO. Key is Gute messed up last year not trading Rodgers if he could. Yes I know he might not have had a trade partner or Rodgers might have balked at the trade. We do not know and probably will never know.
I have a ticket for and ready to board the "Love Train".
Savage57
February 10, 2023 at 07:40 am
I'm about full up with Rodgers' drama, and his burgeoning me-ism. You play a team game. Start investing more time in we than me.
The line between self-awareness and self-obsession is a thin one, and once you cross it, that's when the jokes start.
Gforcetrivers
February 10, 2023 at 08:03 am
Yes Mahomes broke his thumb and sat out to heal it and go on to play the SB. While Rodgers ignores his team and refuses to watch Love for a few games and squanders our season.
GaryC
February 10, 2023 at 08:20 am
Dare I suggest their Head Coach actually “Head Coached” and told him he was sitting out.
mnbadger
February 10, 2023 at 11:37 am
GB doesn't have a HC, We have a cheerleader that calls a few plays, towel boy and designated person that talks to the media. These tasks don't require toughness or leadership, so mlf is at least partially qualified.
GPG!
NickPerry
February 10, 2023 at 06:48 am
The way I've been looking at this since I've been on my "Trade Rodgers" tirade is this. I'm not looking at 2023,not really. I'm looking at 2024 and beyond. Just looking at a trade to the Raiders for example which is what I'm hoping for. The Raiders hold the #7 pick overall. At least 2, possibly 3 QB's will be taken before the Packers would go on the clock at 7th. OR, if the Packers held it maybe Carolina wants to make sure to get ahead of Atlanta and offers the Packers #9 and MORE picks. Staying at 7 they'd get a blue chip prospect for sure. Obviously nothings a "Sure Thing", but I like the Packs chances at #7 overall then say 13th where the Jets are.
Even if it's just #7 and Waller and a conditional pick next year or a 1st and 3rd with conditional picks next year I DON'T CARE. The Packers IMO already look like big jackasses for not taking the trade last year. DON'T look like jackasses again this year. Mark "We're not idiots" Murphy has already made the organization look like idiots. PLEASE, don't embarrass this great franchise in back to back years.
Gut had a hell of a draft last year. With for example 7, 15, 46, and 79, the Packers would have a chance to add REAL talent on this roster to go with last years haul. I still think the MLF offense is a good offense. It's a QB friendly scheme that makes it EASY for the QB. In 2022 the Packers were far, far, away from that scheme. That's the LaFleur scheme FOR Aaron Rodgers. For all the issues MLF has as a coach, I still believe in his scheme. Obviously he's not going anywhere. LOAD up on this draft and get Love and this staff as much help as possible.
Rodgers couldn't do it in 2020 or 2021...THAT was his window. IT IS TIME!
Savage57
February 10, 2023 at 07:17 am
It's not just the picks, it's what you do with them.
Case in point. Gute passed on Creed Humphrey to take Josh Meyers. That move has Ted's 'let me show you how smart I am' attitude that led to Kevin King instead of TJ Watt written all over it.
Coldworld
February 10, 2023 at 08:21 am
But he hit on Zach Tom and Watson and others that other GMs took who instead of? All GMs miss a lot. The question is do they hit and hit big enough when they do? That’s exponentially harder drafting later by design, but it’s really the foundational step. Coaching I’ve got no retort to. We just don’t compare in attitude or acumen on both sides of the ball.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 08:27 am
Very true (although Myers over Humphrey was plain stupid though. Gutey didn't need to overthink that one).
RCPackerFan
February 10, 2023 at 08:47 am
I keep seeing this argument all over.
My question is Myers that terrible as fans seem to make him out to be? I feel like he has been improving almost every game. Lets not forget that he missed most of his rookie season. He only played in 6 games. So this year was basically a continuation from his rookie year.
I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a major step next year. But that brings me to my main question, has he been that bad?
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 08:53 am
My comment is by no means to say Myers is bad. He may turn out to be a very good player, and you are right about his rookie season.
My point is that Creed Humphrey is already one of the best Centers in the league, being a 2x pro bowler and a 2nd-team all pro. That is what Gutey missed out on, and everyone was saying before the draft that he was the best choice.
jannesbjornson
February 10, 2023 at 09:39 am
Toss in Trey Smith over Newman, a fast trade for Orlando Brown and Veach rebuilt the KC O line in one week.
RCPackerFan
February 10, 2023 at 11:42 am
Yeah I get what you are saying. And I wasn't calling you out or anything. i just have seen the comment being made so much. And a lot of fans are saying Myers is not good. I disagree with that take.
As far as drafting players its always projecting and projecting fits. I think the Packers felt Myers was a great fit in this offense. And they probably felt great about Myers because they drafted Linsley from OSU too. They maybe didn't feel as strongly about Humphrey. Maybe they had them rated the same. We won't know that aspect of it.
jannesbjornson
February 10, 2023 at 12:08 pm
Myers knees were the concern coming out of OSU. He and Humphrey were both All American team centers. Landon Dickerson was the first team guy and Philly also took him in round two. He is one of their starting guards. I believe Myers would be a better Guard.
murf7777
February 10, 2023 at 07:41 am
To say the FO are complete jackasses for not trading Rodgers last year is too harsh and wrong. What if the Packers made it to the SB this year. Those “trade Rodgers” comments would be long gone. It was a very tough decision. Also, if you want to really look like a jackass you trade Rodgers and he wins a SB with the new team. Running an NFL Franchise is very, very difficult and wrought with tough decisions year in and year out. It’s easy for a fan to look at hindsight to criticize those decision makers. In 20 & 21 they were very close a play or two away. That’s not all on Rodgers. It’s not like the NBA with fewer players where one or two can make the difference of being the finals or not. The reality is the Packers have one of the most successful teams in the league over the past 30 years. I think they make more right than wrong decisions.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 07:51 am
Agreed, but now, in 2023, they have to realize their mistake and move on
Coldworld
February 10, 2023 at 08:25 am
When we finished that season with a statement that what we needed most was continuity, that pretty much summed up the gap between reality and those running Lambeau for me.
PS. Now we have Murphy falling over himself to say that there is no deadline for Rodgers to make a decision again. That suggests that they aren’t making any decisions or changes unless he forces them and confirms the complete abdication of the initiative, if not any semblance of leadership from him.
murf7777
February 11, 2023 at 08:07 am
I wouldn’t debate that point. It’s time to rebuild and give Love a try while you can still get decent assets from Rodgers.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
February 10, 2023 at 09:29 am
Murf,
"To say the FO are complete jackasses for not trading Rodgers last year is too harsh and wrong. What if the Packers made it to the SB this year. Those “trade Rodgers” comments would be long gone. It was a very tough decision. Also, if you want to really look like a jackass you trade Rodgers and he wins a SB with the new team".
To be a GM in the NFL you have to operate completely without fear. If you operate with fear you are going to lose more often then win. A good GM is always operating and planning a few years in advance anticipating what might happen. The Green Bay Packers operated in fear last offseason passing up a once in a life time opportunity. The question is who made the decision to operate in fear? This was a decision made after Rodgers had been extremely critical of Gute & the GBP's and then they rewarded him handsomely.
Not trying to be a naysayer, but I can only share that I was pounding the table incessantly all last offseason for the Packers trade Rodgers for what likely would have been at least what Denver traded for Russell. It did not take a football genius to know the Packers were very unlikely to make the SB last year with a poor Special Teams, an offense without quality & proven WR's, or capable TE's, along with a beat up LT who no one knew would ever be able to play again.
jannesbjornson
February 10, 2023 at 09:49 am
They grabbed Love in 2020 and he is still sitting. Most of the Fans across NFL websites look at the pick as a miss. Two players were not taken that may have helped the cause of winning the Big Game. If he was the guy, he would be starting. Mahomes hit the field year two.
BirdDogUni
February 10, 2023 at 10:13 am
Mahomes replaced Alex Smith though... Big difference IMO. I think Murphy plays a bigger role in Rodgers staying than we know, but I could be wrong. If our organizational structure wasn't so messed up, we'd know who was making the decisions for sure. We don't, hence the problems.
jannesbjornson
February 10, 2023 at 10:42 am
Six pro bowl players from rds 2 & 3 (2020) ,not selected, is the cost. It is the lack of a draft strategy and evaluation. Watson was no outlier. He should have been the #22. Then, no attention paid to the pass rush which lost ZaDarius. Who was their target, Rhyan? Always a draft behind since the debacle of the 2017 draft. Four straight whiffs until THEY hit on Williams. They do not play to Win the Big Game. They created the QB controversy narrative. Rodgers keeps the them in the seats for another season. The idea was to keep their waters muddied and let the Fans swim to daylight.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 08:01 am
Exactly!!! Look for what is best in 2024 and beyond! If the Packers were to go all in, I don’t see any way they could improve themselves from 8-9 to a true super bowl contender given the Packers’ roster holes, cap situation, and a Rodgers’ decline. If we go all in in 2023, we will be, at best, mediocre or bad for the next 5 years because of how much kicking the salary cap can down the road will hurt us in the future.
We need to reset the cap in 2023, get rid of expensive, aging veterans who will likely be on the decline soon (Rodgers, Jones, Bakh, P. Smith), and use our extra draft capital to rebuild our roster this year and next with the hope that if we can secure enough cheap talent on rookie deals and open up enough cap space to sign a couple of premium free agents (or even trade for a player or two down the road), we can have a contending window similar to the Eagles’ right now.
I want us to, like the Eagles, have an incredible and deep roster at all positions (if you recall good depth was a crucial part of the 2010 roster winning the SB), and for us to be even better than the Packers of 2020 and 2021, and the way to achieve that is to undergo a 1-year salary cap cleansing rebuild in 2023, like the Eagles did in the 2021 season when they traded Wentz (and not only did they secure themselves extra premium draft capital for the next 2-3 years, they actually made the playoffs that season!). We should follow the Eagles’ formula
I really think the 2023 draft has potential to be one of the best drafts in recent memory for the Packers, even better than the 2022 draft. It is supposed to be one of the deepest and highest quality classes in a long time, and already there are so many good prospects that I like.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
February 10, 2023 at 09:37 am
Couldn't agree more Packy!
The Packers are standing on a precipice that they created last year by retaining an aging & disruptive Aaron Rodgers. They missed a huge opportunity last year but the Packers have an opportunity to try righting the situation to some degree by obtaining a few draft picks in 2023, and possibly a starting player. These draft choices and possible player would make a huge impact on the Packers moving forward.
I have made this comment before but should Rodgers miraculously be traded there is no way in hell Gutey with his legacy on the line with Love at QB is not going with WR's & TE's with high picks. Think offense early! Adding some more talent to help a young QB out only makes sense and boy there is a WR I am just drooling over along with a couple really good TE's. I could easily see the Packers ending up arguably with the best WR & TE prospects in this draft.
BirdDogUni
February 10, 2023 at 10:34 am
"I really think the 2023 draft has potential to be one of the best drafts in recent memory for the Packers, even better than the 2022 draft. It is supposed to be one of the deepest and highest quality classes in a long time, and already there are so many good prospects that I like."
Except at QB, which is exactly why we should trade Aaron Rodgers this year!
I think if the truth is told, the QB class is pretty bad. The NFL will hype it up and guys will get picked, but I don't think the Jets, Colts, or Raiders are very happy the QB class sucks this year, hence the chance of a bidding war for AR12...
People claim nobody will trade for Love, but I disagree. I think there are at least 2 or 3 GMs who would love to trade for Love, but Gutey won't part with him unless he gets what he wants and doesn't look like an idiot for drafting him in the 1st place.
I think it still comes down to what AR12 decides. If he decides he wants to retire a Packer, he'll have to convince 1265 he's in for at least two more years. Then, Gutey will have to get to work and find a team who is willing to pay his price for Love. I just don't see them both on the roster come fall.
AR12 has said multiple times it has to be mutual. He also said he'd understand if the Packers decided they wanted to go younger. He's obviously giving the Packers the opportunity to do whatever they want...
If in fact the Packers want to trade Rodgers, I think he'll be fine with it. If they want to bring him back, I think he's fine with that too. He's already admitted something would have to be done with his contract. IDK what that would entail, but AR12 seems to understand something has to be done.
IDK what the Packers will decide, but if they keep Rodgers, I see them moving Love and restarting the QB clock next year, not this year. If they do trade Love, they will have to get serious about going all in if they want to have a chance at a Super Bowl in '23 or '24...
If they trade AR12, they've basically given up on '23 and are looking to the future, which isn't a bad thing either.
No matter what happens, or who decides what, we're all Packer Fans and will be supporting them come September, come what may...
At least I will be.
MainePackFan
February 10, 2023 at 02:29 pm
"Even if it's just #7 and Waller and a conditional pick next year"
Nick, Why would you want to add an aging TE with a 12M cap hit to this scenario? Waller is always hurt. I would rather keep Tonyan.
Savage57
February 10, 2023 at 07:08 am
The Eagles have Howie Roseman, so they have better talent.
The Chiefs have Andy Reid, so they have better coaching.
The Packers have Gutekunst and LaFleur, who will never been confused with those guys.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 07:50 am
LaFleur won’t. I truly believe that if Gutey is given the freedom to work Murphy-less, he is one of the better GMs in the league.
KenEllis
February 11, 2023 at 09:49 am
Roseman traded FOR a WR1 in AJ Brown.
Cute traded AWAY a WR1 in Davante Adams.
Roseman is a GM who explores all avenues of talent acquisition, including numerous trades of premium draft picks for players.
Gute is glorified scout who would no more trade a pick for a player than would his beloved mentor Ted Thompson.
Gute signed up to work for Mark Murphy knowing full well he would be Murph's *uck. The role suits him well.
BruceIrons
February 11, 2023 at 10:35 am
AJ Brown is 25 years old and was on his rookie contract.
Davante Adams is 30 and wanted to be the highest paid receiver in NFL history.
There's a lot of factors that impact these decisions.
KenEllis
February 11, 2023 at 12:49 pm
And one factor above all else rules when it comes to trading premium draft picks for players in Green Bay Bruce, that is Gute (like his hero Ted before him) never does it no matter the age, no matter the circumstance
PS how old was Darius Slay when Howie traded for him? The answer reveals why Roseman & Gute operate in completely different universes as NFL GMs.
BruceIrons
February 11, 2023 at 01:21 pm
How old was Jamal Adams when the Seahawks traded for him?
Some deals work out, some don't. There's a lot of factors that go into it.
KenEllis
February 11, 2023 at 04:25 pm
Excellent point about Jamal Adams Bruce.
Now, tell me about any of the trades the Packers have made involving picks in rounds 1-3 during the last 20 years, heck round 1-5 pick, and tell me how many of those have worked out or not worked out?
HInt, the Packers are the only team not to have made a SINGLE SUCH TRADE. Not one.
When you are never, ever willing to trade away premium picks for players to put a team over the top you get a GM like Brian Gutekunst.
Tomorrow while some are pondering how they can next praise the Pack's GM I'll be watching a Super Bowl in which, among others, Philly will be featuring a WR1, CB1, and S1 and KC will have a DE1, LT1, and WR3 who were all acquired via trade.
Just like Packer fans watched the Rams (2021), Bucks (2020), Chiefs (2019), Pats (2018), Eagles (2017), etc. win Super Bowls after their GMs traded picks for legitimate NFL players.
BruceIrons
February 11, 2023 at 04:28 pm
Trading high picks for veterans means swapping out low-priced young talent for high-priced old talent.
Most team that do it don't make the Super Bowl and end up even worse in the long run.
KenEllis
February 12, 2023 at 01:37 pm
LOL, you are 100% correct Bruce, the Packers NEVER ONCE TRADING A PREMIUM pick for a player has been key to all those Super Bowl appearances with Aaron Rodgers at QB since 2011.
Oh and say hi to Gutey at your annual gathering watching LOSER franchises playing on Super Bowl Sunday while Gutey contemplates which stud he will next select in the 3rd round - ya know the kind of franchises like Philly, KC, the Rams, Tampa Bay that do stupidly trade picks for players in order to compete for Lombardi trophies.
T7Steve
February 10, 2023 at 08:03 am
Yes. Comparing apples to oranges.
Good head coaches spend their time getting the most out of their assistant coaches and hold them accountable for putting the role players in the right spots at the right times.
If that's done, your stars can shine,
Coldworld
February 10, 2023 at 10:07 am
They also don’t tolerate mediocrity once demonstrated. In a league of fine lines, they know they can’t afford to.
stockholder
February 10, 2023 at 07:21 am
Uncertain?
High Noon w#12 or Its midnight w #12.
My preference is Rodgers. Dump Love.
Before they pay him 20 mil.
I’ll take 20 mil on Jones; instead.
The trust is with Jones, Not Dillion or Love.
Just as you trust Bahk over Youth.
The problem isn’t #12 or the cap.
It’s TRUST. AND a bad GM.
(Who can’t hit on players outside the top 50. )
A GM that put too much money into a Defense.
Without the right DC to run it.
Run?- The run to daylight has turned into Darkness.
Either you believe in the players that were here before Gute.
Or you want a House Cleaning.
pantz_bURp
February 10, 2023 at 07:34 am
Mornin' Stock,
"Or you want a House Cleaning"
I am leaning more towards the colon blow myself .
✌️
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 07:48 am
We cannot stick with Jones and Bakhtiari forever. Jones in 28 and Bakhtiari is 32. Both will start to decline at some point. I don’t know what this “trust” you are talking about is, but remember that at some point Bakhtiari and Jones were rookies, and they weren’t the “trusted” ones, per se. it is just the football circle of life.
Also, even if Gutekunst had full powers as GM, he doesn’t control coaching hires. Barry does. That’s on MLF.
I would prefer a house cleaning because the trajectory the Packers are headed for will screw their salary cap and make them bottom feeders for years to come. It is sacrificing the future so we can be a fringe playoff contender in 2023 with Rodgers (and we may actually reach that same point with Love too).
If Gutey can’t hit on any players outside the top 50, what about MVS, AJ Dillon, Romeo Doubs, Zach Tom, Kingsley Enagbare, and Samori Toure?
Also, I don’t know if you have seen the Packers cap situation, but the salary cap is VERY much a problem. We are 16 million over the cap, and if we restructure everybody this year, we will make our salary cap future even uglier, and if this happens, we will be like the Saints; anywhere between bad and mediocre, but CERTAINLY not super bowl contenders. That is not what is best for the organization. The best path is to move on from expensive veterans, reset the salary cap in 2023, and build upwards with cap space and extra draft capital in 2024.
Coldworld
February 10, 2023 at 08:33 am
Who was here before Gute? Rodgers, Crosby, Bakh, Cobb and Jones, if memory serves. That’s a pretty minuscule core to rely on. Of them, Jones is the only one currently in his prime and we may not even be able to afford to keep him. Two are well past their prime, another is great but is an injury risk. Forgive me, but no, that’s not an engine room that’s winning everything but a neat encapsulation of why we need to move on now.
stockholder
February 10, 2023 at 12:27 pm
I'm only going to point to James Jones.
Didn't he come back and still play?
Coldworld
February 10, 2023 at 02:57 pm
And the significance of that is?
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
February 10, 2023 at 09:41 am
Stockholder,
While I rarely agree with you I love the fact you believe strongly & are so decisive about your decisions/thoughts. Without question....you would not be a GM operating in fear...even though your career as a GM wouldn't likely last long. :)
MainePackFan
February 10, 2023 at 02:44 pm
Knock, as I read through the comments, it is readily apparent that no one in this room would have a very long career as a GM in the NFL :)
jannesbjornson
February 10, 2023 at 12:04 pm
I like Bhak at LT. The rest are on the Open Market. A.Jones is not the 20Million man. If Love is not in the driver's seat ,2023, then move him. I agree on the GM, replace his crew. The 2020 debacle has now collected moss, fungi, lichens and mold. Where are the contributors/? A 245 lb RB has to break the plain at the goal line, not go down with an arm tackle. I still recall the draft mockery debates about Troutman and Alex Highsmith. KC finds guys like L'Jarius Sneed in the fourth. Packertown trades the picks.
NickPerry
February 10, 2023 at 07:26 am
Off Topic...
Looking for something funny to go with your cup of morning coffee or tea? Well, at least I found it funny. I saw this on Packers Central, another Packers website (Sorry Al...CHTV is still and always my favorite!)
"From Finland to Packers to Citadel for Drayton"
"Former Green Bay Packers special teams coordinator Maurice Drayton discusses his path to becoming the new head coach at The Citadel."
Now I don't know a thing about The Citadel and frankly, didn't even bother to look them up after I saw this. I mean did is Mark Murphy moonlighting at The Citadel? I didn't even know Drayton was still coaching let alone was considered a coach of ANYTHING.
Absolutely amazing IMO. Congrats Mr. Mo Drayton.
mrtundra
February 10, 2023 at 07:31 am
Wait until Travis Jervey finds out. The Citadel was his alma mater.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 07:37 am
Comparing an aging Aaron Rodgers to Patrick Mahomes in his prime is a false analogy. Mahomes will be perhaps the best QB in the league for many more years, while Rodgers is already starting to show signs of decline. To waste an emerging opportunity we have (like the opportunity the Eagles had a few seasons ago) to build a great roster around Love and win the super bowl would be foolish.
The Eagles’ GM, Howie Roseman, realized his mistake with extending Carson Wentz, so he drafted Hurts and traded Wentz the next year (for a good sum, I must add). Then, they began their competitive rebuild and they weren’t afraid to go all in when they thought they had a chance to win it all.
However, with our current roster and salary cap I don’t think there is a way we can elevate this 8-9 roster to being a super bowl contender realistically in 2023. In no way will we be contenders next season; because of this, it only makes sense to try and maximize our possible success in 2024 and beyond. This means thinking in the long term, not what is best for the 2023 Packers.
dobber
February 10, 2023 at 09:35 am
"Comparing an aging Aaron Rodgers to Patrick Mahomes in his prime is a false analogy."
We're getting too hung up on the players themselves where this article is focusing on cap structures, dead money, and how teams were built around their respective QBs. This article is roster construction around available cap, not "QB X is better than QB Y".
"The Eagles’ GM, Howie Roseman, realized his mistake with extending Carson Wentz, so he drafted Hurts and traded Wentz the next year (for a good sum, I must add)."
Hurts was drafted in 2020, when Wentz was coming off his 4th year where he threw for 4000+ yards, 27 TDs, and 7 INTs. He signed a Kirk-Cousins impacted deal to bypass his 5th year option, but was looking like a true franchise QB at the time. While Wentz had suffered an ACL in 2018 and then a significant concussion in the playoffs in 2019, the wheels had not yet come off on Wentz when Hurts was drafted. This seems to be some kind of weird narrative that the Eagles drafted Hurts with the plan to replace Wentz, but the narrative isn't reasonably supported by the information at hand.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 11:22 am
You are making my point for me - the wheels hadn't come off either when Love was drafted. Rodgers was coming off a pro bowl season
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
February 10, 2023 at 09:45 am
Trading of AR for some picks and a player I do believe the Packers will provide a legitimate shot at the playoffs with Love at QB. No, they will not be SB contenders but I do see them being contenders for the playoffs even though I believe the Lions are on the verge of completely taking control of the division for the short-term.
What no one is talking about is if Rodgers is traded who will the Packers have as back-up QB? This is a legitimate concern because we have no idea about Love and his durability. One way or another the Packers would need to get a legitimate back-up QB.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 11:22 am
Taylor Heinicke, of course! He's said he wants to play for GB.
Coldworld
February 10, 2023 at 07:53 am
Cant you see the difference in the situations of the two franchises? Start with the fact that the Eagles cleared the decks and gambled hard on a rebuild around a mostly first contract team plus a few costly players at their peak now. In contrast, we are coming off multiple years of running it back, a very highly paid QB and some others around him while devoid of cap to add talent via FA, and have been pushing cap forward as well. The Eagles may well be a one and done project even then, precisely because of their dead cap underpinning. They are in the window before their chickens come home to roost. For us, our nearest parallel to that was 2021.
I recommend reading TGRs many detailed analyses on this site, attempting to find a way to make the current course viable. Perhaps that will change your perceptions. As it stands I think this piece is mere wishful thinking grounded on thin air. That’s without even referencing our coaching and cultural questions, which are a significant factor in winning.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 08:03 am
Exactly, CW! The Eagles had to undergo a mini rebuild in 2021 (when they traded Wentz) to set up their Super Bowl season this year! Only I want the Packers to be more sustainable than the Eagles are.
Coldworld
February 10, 2023 at 08:12 am
The true parallel here would have been a move on from Rodgers last year, then a heavy investment in the team probably this year or next and Love or another draft pick proving to be good enough with a strong young cast and some acute Free agent signings akin to those the Eagles made to round out the package once they realized they had some great early pick drafts on board. That team would have had guys like Jones and Bakh still viable and the scope to add now and next year, during their window.
That went out of the window when we agreed to pay Rodgers what we’ve already irrevocably committed and maybe more, despite looking like what the roster was heading for until then. It seems the last draft might have been perfect had we bitten that bullet too.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 08:26 am
True, and it pains me sort of, too. However, one can only look forward. The good news is that the talent in this year's draft class looks just as if not better than the 2022 draft!
The reason I was parralelling 2021 is because the Eagles extended Wentz the year before. After they did so badly, they realized their mistake and traded him and gave the keys to Hurts.
Coldworld
February 10, 2023 at 08:37 am
The Wentz contrast is an acute one.
jannesbjornson
February 10, 2023 at 11:49 am
They paid for Wince, but Foles won their SB. They set him up in an incentive -driven Contract while carrying Wince's deal. They didn't hesitate to move him a year after winning the SB MVP. Different levels of organizational commitment and desire to bag the Lombardi.
BA4Packers
February 10, 2023 at 07:57 am
IMO the Packers have far more talent than they showed last year. The entire organization played below their abilities. With another good draft and the players and coaches perform like they should they can make the playoffs.
T7Steve
February 10, 2023 at 08:18 am
I agree that they have the talent. How will they utilize that if they only strive for consistency with the same coaching?
Is making the playoffs a goal? When did the Packers goal change from championships?
If you see the playoffs as a one-year steppingstone to a championship for Love and the youngsters to get experience, I'll let it slide.
You sound as frustrated as I do.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 08:23 am
"Is making the playoffs a goal?"
For Duh Bares it is. In Titletown, though, the goal should ALWAYS be to help secure another title (super bowl).
Coldworld
February 10, 2023 at 08:45 am
The division is a stepping stone objective. The real determinant is whether the team that gets there is on a path to repeat and do so more strongly next year and beyond. Think of the Vikings. What did that mean for them this year?
Sure, if we get there next year with Love and Watson and Doubs etc. ascending, it would be a source if optimism. Not for itself, but for the future. It’s the trajectory of the roster unless one is viably contending. We were not close to as good as true contention this year on either side of the ball as that would require and we don’t have the ability to add to exploit the younger talent we have if and as it develops.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 08:55 am
By title, I mean Super Bowl - just to clarify. Fixed that up
Bitternotsour
February 10, 2023 at 10:53 am
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought you had to be in the playoffs in order to qualify for a title.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 11:23 am
The playoffs are a stepping stone to the ultimate goal of winning a SB
BA4Packers
February 10, 2023 at 08:47 am
I would like to move on to Love but will accept ARod for another year if that’s the direction we go.
I struggle the most with under achieving.
That’s a pet peeve of mine.
RCPackerFan
February 10, 2023 at 08:50 am
I think its comical that you have 1 upvote and 2 downvotes for talking positive about the team.
People love to (strongly dislike) I guess. (I edited out the horrible word I chose, as I was called out on that before)
I agree with your opinion.
BirdDogUni
February 10, 2023 at 10:57 am
You can't stop the viks fans from voting, or duh bares, or duh idiots...
RCPackerFan
February 10, 2023 at 11:43 am
True story
pantz_bURp
February 10, 2023 at 08:27 am
Hello, helloooo....I hear ya over there. What's your name? You aren't supposed to be in here - I have this room booked for the next 4 days. OUCHHH! F'in funny bone. Hey, what's your name?
Okay, I will come closer...man, you need to eat more dude...your hat feels like a real nice wool Tilley Winter hat, am I right? You wear two hats, wow. Where are your arms? Oh my, you only have one leg? How do you manage to carry that umbrella?
(hours go by)
Dude, can I call you Wilson? Wilson, you got anything for s'mores? How about a Magic 8 Ball?
Lovers gonna Love
RCPackerFan
February 10, 2023 at 08:34 am
Regardless of who the QB is, the best way for a team to be competitive is to draft really well. That means you have to unearth a couple of stars. a few really good starters. some really good role players, and a few backups that can come in and keep the ship afloat when the starter gets hurt.
One common thing that both the Chiefs and Eagles have is that they absolutely nailed the QB they drafted. That is the key to both of these teams success. They nailed the QB spot. Yes they made other great moves, but the biggest key is getting the QB right.
I truly believe the Packers next year will be contenders with Rodgers as the QB. I don't know about Love because we just don't know much about him yet. And it takes time for young QB's, so I just don't know.
But the reasons why I feel like we will contend is because they started to figured some things out on the team as the season wore on. The OL they figured out and got the best 5 in their best spots. Bakhtiari, Jenkins both came off of major injuries and by the end of the season they were playing at the top of their game. Myers finished his first full year. I expect him to take a step after missing a lot of time his rookie year. The rookie WR's gained a lot of experience and performed well as the season wore on. I believe they will take major steps next year. Our offense will look night and day better. On defense Gary returning will help. Walker and Wyatt I believe are poised for breakout years also. They will be getting Stokes back as well.
With a good a draft, and a couple of key signings, we will be in the mix next year.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 09:05 am
"I don't know about Love because we just don't know much about him yet." We will never find out unless we play Love. In the meantime, we know that Rodgers is declining. Look at the first 4 games, before he broke his thumb. He was missing some throws, and across those 4 games, he threw 3 picks, when he threw 4 ALL OF LAST YEAR. Not to mention, he did not throw for a single game in 2022-23 over 300 yards.
"I truly believe the Packers next year will be contenders with Rodgers as the QB." What do you think will change between this 8-9 season and next year that will transform the Packers into contenders? Rodgers isn't getting any younger, and we don't have the cap apparatus to transform the roster
"With a good a draft, and a couple of key signings, we will be in the mix next year." First of all, we only have 4 picks in the top 140. If we traded Rodgers, we'd have a few more. Do you really think 4 players who may or may not be good will give us 5 more wins and make us contenders?
Also, we don't have the cap space to make "a couple of signings." And if we did, is it really good enough to "be in the mix?" I should think that we should strive to be one of the best teams in the NFL, not just to be in the mix for a playoff spot.
I can agree that Walker, Wyatt and the other rookies will likely improve, but Gary will not be back before Halloween at the very earliest, but I would not be surprised to see him return later, as OLB is a very physically taxing position. Also, can we really expect him to be at full strength?
I do not believe that with MLF and Barry this team will ever really be a true contender, no matter how many games they win against sub-par opponents in the regular season. i appreciate the optimism, but I don't think it's grounded in reality.
RCPackerFan
February 10, 2023 at 09:19 am
"Look at the first 4 games, before he broke his thumb. He was missing some throws, and across those 4 games, he threw 3 picks, when he threw 4 ALL OF LAST YEAR. Not to mention, he did not throw for a single game in 2022-23 over 300 yards."
Interceptions are not always on the QB. Sometimes the receivers run the wrong routes. Look at the WR position and determine that its all on Rodgers. Very first throw of the year was an absolute dime that Watson dropped. The WR position was a mess. 1 rookie WR that missed most of camp, Lazard missed the first game and wasn't the same right away after he came back. Cobb missed a bunch of games, Same with Doubs. Watkins was a bust. They elevated Winfree 3 times in the first 6 games.
"What do you think will change between this 8-9 season and next year that will transform the Packers into contenders?"
The talent on the team is better then people want to give it credit. One of the biggest reasons why i expect the team to be much improved is because of this rookie class. Watson and Doubs could form one of the best duos in the league. I have that high of hopes for these 2 guys. Tom likely will be a starter next year. Wyatt and Walker will elevate the defense. Enagbare will hopefully take a step.
You don't have to agree with me. Not many on this page do. And thats ok. I can accept that you all are wrong. (that was a joke, don't take it seriously).
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 09:40 am
Rodgers' first interception (at MIN) was basically an arm punt. However he was picked off twice in the Bucs game (one got called back b/c of a penalty), and both of those were bad throws, especially the one that stood. The Patriots pick was a bad throw by Rodgers. He is declining. All of the INTs at Detroit (and the one when the Lions came here) were very bad throws.
I agree this team has talent, but I do not trust this coaching staff to use it well. Take Darnell Savage, who has all the athleticism to become a plus pro player, but Barry refuses to use him well. Or what about Lowry over Wyatt? Watkins over Toure?
Regardless, I still think the Packers should move on from Rodgers because keeping him will destroy their salary cap future financially. We need to be responsible. We had our chance in 2020-21, now it is time to retool, rebuild, and start the next era of Packers football.
MainePackFan
February 10, 2023 at 03:11 pm
RC, these boys are gonna be some pissed when they trade Jordan Love ;)
CheesedDeadHead
February 10, 2023 at 09:29 am
"I do not believe that with MLF and Barry this team will ever really be a true contender, no matter how many games they win against sub-par opponents in the regular season. i appreciate the optimism, but I don't think it's grounded in reality."
Yes. Yes. Yes. MLF wasn't satisfied with success in the regular season then being out-coached in the Playoffs so he decides to be out-coached in the regular season too.
I don't really care what happens next year as far as the defense goes. Even if they are successful and play to their abilities, it's an outlier in a career for Joe Barry that's littered with bad bad leadership. I'm 4 years into the MLF era still waiting for signs that he is getting smarter and reducing errors. 2022 was a horrible indictment on his ability to manage a team (or even an offense) and I am still waiting for those signs. His failure to hold his staff accountable will likely lead to his demise. So be it.
T7Steve
February 10, 2023 at 09:06 am
Someone downed you. Not I. I like to read your opinions. Maybe they downed you because you're ignoring the elephant in the room.
COACHING!
QBs, drafts, good players, don't matter if they aren't put in a position to be successful.
This COACHING has lost my confidence after four dismal showings in the playoffs (yes, I count the Lions game).
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 09:08 am
Hopefully Barry drags MLF down with him in 2023. We need someone new in 2024.
Rich B for head coach!
RCPackerFan
February 10, 2023 at 09:24 am
Thats ok. I don't really care about the voting stuff.
I agree about coaching. One reason why we regressed this year that doesn't get talked about enough is the coaching changes that happened in GB last year. Some of these guys got elevated to new role and sometimes it takes time to learn the new jobs. Now all of those guys have a year under their belt, they should be more prepared for this coming season.
I'm not a fan of Barry. I want Jim Leonard brought in. I feel like we would be a top 5-10 defense easily if he was brought in.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 09:41 am
Hopefully Leonhard takes a year off in 2023 and is our DC in 2024!
RCPackerFan
February 10, 2023 at 11:44 am
Which maybe LaFleur reached out to Leonard and that is his plan?
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 12:25 pm
Idk...I kind of hope LaFleur isn't in the Packers' plans for 2024 either.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
February 10, 2023 at 09:50 am
I agree with much of your logic RC but why would you continue down a path leading to a precipice with an aging QB when Love is your future....and you can get some very good draft choices with Rodgers to help expedite the building of the team? Anything with Rodgers is diminishing returns without compensation for his services & that is without even discussing what happens with Jordan Love in the interim.
RCPackerFan
February 10, 2023 at 10:07 am
My only pause with making the switch to Love is because I have no idea how good Love is or will be. Only the Packers have seen him day in and day out.
The only thing we have seen of Love was 21 total attempts on the year. The most action he played was against the Eagles where he had 9 attempts. He was 6 of 9 for 113 yards and 1 TD. Not to be a naysayer but the 1 TD was a 63 yard TD to Watson who lets be real, simply out ran the defense. The throw was about an 8 yard throw. You can't take away plays but if you removed that 1 play from that game he would have been 5 for 8 for 50 yards and no TD's.
I don't want to base that performance on the numbers though because he did look much improved. That was the first time we had seen him look like a starter.
My biggest point with Rodgers being traded is, they absolutely need to know what they have in Love before they make that move. When they traded Favre to go to Rodgers, they at that point knew what Rodgers had. (Also timing of Favre's return was messed up as he previously retired). If Love isn't ready or isn't very good, why are they trading Rodgers to go to him.
NFL teams go nuts to find the best QB they can. So why are we as fans so quick to get rid of the one we have? If Love is ready, then sure make that move. But they better be damn sure he will be ready.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 11:33 am
In regards to Love's performance, are you accounting for that one of his incompletions was a beautifully thrown ball to a tight window that was dropped by Aaron Jones? What about his throw to Cobb in the end zone that was a blatant DPI? What impressed me most was his pocket presence and his decision making.
The Packers should know after three years what Love has. The only way to make sure he is even more ready is to play him. After 3 years of sitting, there is nothing else Love can do except play. My guess is that Rodgers is a Jet in 2023.
"NFL teams go nuts to find the best QB they can. So why are we as fans so quick to get rid of the one we have?"
Because Rodgers is on the decline. Even this year, despite his MVP-caliber salary, he wasn't able to elevate his supporting cast as in years past. That, of course, is natural; he's getting older and needs more from his supporting cast, which is rational. However, the Packers don't have the current roster to give him that or cap space/draft capital to provide any significant upgrades if Rodgers stays.
Because I don't see the Packers being able to do much better (or even worse) than 8-9 under MLF and Barry for 2023 no matter what they do this offseason, I think it is best to move on. If Rodgers stays, he is essentially un-tradable and Love's Packers career will end and he will go somewhere else.
With the declining trajectory Rodgers is on, I don't think it is worth screwing the Packers' salary cap for the next 5 or so years and sacrificing Love's Packers career to have one more year of Aaron Rodgers playing when there is little chance we can win it all, no matter what we choose to do, under this coaching staff.
RCPackerFan
February 10, 2023 at 12:11 pm
Love looked the best we have seen from him in the Eagles game. He maybe ready to be the guy. We don't know. Maybe the Packers do, but we don't. Prior to this year he was not ready.
My question is how much is Rodgers declining? I have seen this brought up a quite a bit. The previous 2 years he was MVP. This year he lost Adams, MVS, EQ, along with offensive coaches. They brought in 3 rookie WR's, and Watkins who went on IR week 3. I can't remember the stats, but I believe the Packers were along the league leaders in dropped catchable passes.
And the OL was a mess for most of the year. Rodgers wasn't able to overcome the issues around him, and he wasn't his best. A part of that was due to the broken thumb.
So how much did Rodgers truly regress? And with the OL and WR's improving, wouldn't one think that Rodgers would only be better?
I disagree about the little chance to win it all. Look at the Eagles this year. Look at the Bengals last year. it doesn't take much to turn a team around. a few key players and it changes everything.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 12:42 pm
"How much is Rodgers declining?"
Well, he threw the 2nd-highest amount of interceptions in his career. He had the least amount of yards per pass attempt in any full season he's played this year. He had his lowest average yards per game this season with 217.4, he's had his lowest amount of passing yards in any full season of his career, and he had the second-worst passer rating of any of his full seasons this year with a 91.1.
Comparatively, these stats are about average, but when you are PAYING your QB LIKE AN MVP, average is not good enough. Your QB is using up valuable cap space, and you're not getting enough return on your investment.
How do you see our WR room improving when we will likely be losing Lazard and, if we didn't trade Rodgers, the best we could give to supplant that loss would be a 3rd or 4th round pick? Do you really think that any form of our 2023 offense could stand up to those of 2021 and 2020?
Prior to this year, Love isn't ready, but people can improve, as Love showed.
Also, do you really think it is worth is to try and pursue a championship for 2023 and sacrifice the next 5 years of our franchise? Wouldn't you rather sacrifice one season and have a sustainable team that has an elite roster that is perennially in the mix for the next several years, just as the Chiefs are?
Our OL has been ranked in the top 10 (in pass blocking at least), by the way
Also, do you know what the Bengals and Eagles have in common? They have QBs on rookie contracts, which means they can elevate other parts of their roster. The Packers are paying Rodgers MVP money to be mediocre, but they have a rookie QB that they can lock up relatively cheaply for the next 5 or so years if they wish (who they should go with in the future if they really want to win it all).
Do you know what the Eagles did to upgrade their roster? Signed Haason Reddick, Kyzir White, T.J. Edwards, James Bradberry, and traded for CJ Gardner Johnson and AJ Brown (and signed Brown to a massive deal) and had Jalen Hurts take an elite leap. Do you know why they could do all that? Because they are not paying their QB 50 million per year. That is likely to change after this year, which is why this is likely the Eagles' best shot at a Super Bowl.
The Bengals, prior to the 2021 season, signed Trey Hendrickson, Chidobe Awuzie, Mike Hilton, Larry Ogunjobi, Eli Apple, and Riley Reiff and drafted Jamarr Chase. They could do all that because they had the cap space to because they had a QB on a rookie contract.
We do not have the apparatus to pull off such moves, not just because we don't have the capital to make trades like that but because we don't have the cap space because it is being absorbed by our QB with an MVP salary. We don't have a good chance of winning it all, with Rodgers or without, so we should be trying to maximize our future chances of winning it all.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
February 10, 2023 at 02:24 pm
In agreement RC, which is why I believe the Packers are ready to move on from AR. I think they clearly now know what they have in Jordan Love. If it wasn't for covid & two MVP seasons I am thinking Jordan Love would have been the starter all 2023 & it would have been the Packers vs the Seahawks who make the major haul in the trade.
After watching Love in camp, at the Friday night scrimmage, and at the Philly game I feel pretty good about what the Packers have in Jordan Love. At minimum, a very good starting QB in the NFL. It's time!
MainePackFan
February 10, 2023 at 03:36 pm
Spot on RC!!
SwedeBayPacker
February 10, 2023 at 08:54 am
"Either way, the Packers are in good shape to make another Super Bowl run next year."
That's the funniest thing I heard all day, maybe consider a career in standup?
Leatherhead
February 10, 2023 at 09:47 am
Here's what the Packers return for 2023.
1) The division's best defense, by a lot.
2) An excellent RB combo.
3) Christian Watson.
4) A veteran offensive line: Bakhtiari, Runyan, Jenkins, Myers, Nijman.
I don't see any reason, at all, that we can't compete for the division. If we win the division, our odds of going to the Super Bowl shrink improve from 1:16 to 7:16. If we win our first playoff game, at home, it's 1:4.
Philly, Dallas, SF, Minnesota, Rams, Seahawks all have their own issues and it'll be 11 months before it matters. What matters right now is figuring out who we want in our training camp.
SwedeBayPacker
February 10, 2023 at 11:09 am
First of all, love the optimism.
But here are a couple of reasons that say we aren't truly competing next season.
1: Joe Barry
2: Matt LeFleur
3: Aaron Rodgers' ego
4: Cap space
5: Whatever players we can't retain because of 4.
I'd love for the Packers to win the next Super Bowl, but come on. The pieces are there, or rather were there when we had Adams, but we've constantly lacked the leadership/coaching/culture to push all the way through the play-offs each and every time we've been there.
Why would anything be different next season when all the 'problems' remain the same?
BirdDogUni
February 10, 2023 at 11:23 am
"Why would anything be different next season when all the 'problems' remain the same?"
Personal improvement of the young guys.
A great '23 Draft Class.
Better health, better match-ups, a QB without a broken thumb, and some decent breaks.
We should've beaten the Giants, Jets, and Commanders.
We should've beaten the Lions in both games.
With a great draft class, players improving, a healthy MVP QB, anything is possible.
If they do trade AR12, I don't think we have a serious chance at a Super Bowl, but I do think we could make the playoffs, even with Love at QB and a Super Bowl run could be possible in '24 or '25...
Or not.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 11:35 am
Exactly. We need to think in the long term
jannesbjornson
February 10, 2023 at 01:35 pm
That was five years ago...
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 11:52 am
I don't think it means a lot to say the Packers are the division's best defense when the other defenses ranked 29th (Chicago), 31st (Minnesota), and 32nd (Detroit). We are ranked 17th, in the bottom half of the league.
While I do think that Nijman and Runyan will improve after a full offseason of training at their new positions, I think it is likely that Bakhtiari is either traded or cut as a cap casualty and Zach Tom takes his place. I don't think that is a bad thing.
Here is what I think. I think the Packers should make the switch to Jordan Love and clean out the salary cap by cutting or trading Rodgers, Jones, Bakhtiari, and Preston. Doing that will save us 10.7 million in net cap space for 2023 and a WHOPPING 104.3 MILLION of cap space in 2024. We will need this cap space for extensions for younger players like Rashan Gary, AJ Dillon, Jordan Love, and Jon Runyan Jr.
My rationale for cutting these players is because, as I have said numerous times before, there is no possible way, no matter what the Packers do, that they can realistically expect to be super bowl contenders with teams like Philly and the Chiefs in 2023. This is because of our cap limitations in 2023, the holes in our roster, the coaching staff, for many reasons.
If we are to seriously contend at all in the future, we need to build the best roster possible. The ways to do that are draft capital and cap space. Since we are limited in both cap space and draft capital (if we don't trade these guys) in 2023, we need to set ourselves up for success in 2024 as much as we can, which means sacrificing how well we may do in 2023 to open up cap space in 2024 and receive draft capital. It gives us younger, cheaper talent to work with and build upon.
The reason I don't want to go all-in on 2023 is because it compromises our future for the next 5 years and perhaps longer. Rodgers and others' cap hits will become unfeasible, and we will end up like the Saints - where they are stuck with all their old players because they have, for too long, kicked the salary cap can down the road, and they have to watch all their young talented players with bright careers ahead leave in free agency. Basically, we are choosing between being a fringe playoff team in 2023 and the future of the next five years.
Also, whatever odds we have of being good in 2023 or however talented our 2023 roster is will be significantly hampered by the decisions to retain Joe Barry (and Matt Lafleur) and their lack of leadership. We need to focus on a brighter future after 2023 - the cards are already being stacked for us to have a similar disappointing season in 2023
This organization needs to have one "wash" year where they clean out the salary cap. After that, we can be built into responsible and sustainable contenders, and not a team that is paying for today with tomorrow's money just so they can be an average or slightly above average team in the present.
After all that, the Packers can do whatever they want to try and win as much as possible in 2023 AS LONG as it does not hurt our 2024 salary cap or odds of success significantly. We should try to compete for the division, but not at the expense of the odds of success in 2024 and the future of this organization.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 12:16 pm
Also, in regard to the last part of your comment: The NFC is a changing conference.
Philly will has a ton of impending free agents and will have to extend Jalen Hurts as well, and Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson might retire. Regardless, they have good draft capital. I don't know if they will be as good as the 2022-23 Eagles, but they will still be very, very good, likely the top team in the NFC.
Dallas will be on the decline. I don't know if Dak will recover from this postseason loss, they don't have much cap space, and while they may be OK, I don't think they will be contenders.
SF is similar to Philly. They have lots of impending free agents and have to extend Nick Bosa. They will still be good, but they will not be as good as they were this year.
Minnesota, in my opinion, is set up for a huge regression. Not only did they have the #31 defense this year, but they are 24 million over the cap and have Jefferson and Hockenson to extend. In addition, they were very lucky in 2022, having many close calls go their way and winning lots of one score games. I would not be surprised if they finish last in the division next year.
The Rams were not great before they were injured last season and they are tight on draft capital and cap space as well. I do not see them being true contenders again next year. They may be a fringe playoff team.
In my opinion, the teams that are going to get better are the Lions, Giants, and Seahawks. The Giants have a ton of cap space to improve their roster. The Lions have a ton of draft capital to hep their defense (which, despite its ranking, wasn't that bad near the end of the season IMO), and the Seahawks have both cap space and draft capital. The Seahawks may be the most improved team in the NFC next year, and I actually think they could snatch the West from the 49ers
coolhand
February 10, 2023 at 08:57 am
The Chiefs are contenders each year because they have Andy Reid as their HC. He can put together a great staff, who come up with solid game plans, and have their players competing at a high level. MLF is nowhere even close to Reid in both putting together a staff and creating a game plan and then making adjustments during the game. He can't even control his QB who does whatever he wants. We all saw the Lions come into Lambeau with our season on the line and punch us in the face and we didn't respond. Really pathetic how soft this team has become under MLF.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 09:06 am
We need someone different. Hopefully Barry drags MLF down with him in 2023.
Rich B for Head Coach!
HarryHodag
February 10, 2023 at 09:16 am
I wistfully noted that Andy Reid was on Mike Holmgren's staff in Green Bay. How many Super Bowls would Reid have won in Green Bay with Favre and Rodgers?
Ferrari-Driver
February 10, 2023 at 11:27 am
Most of us old timers realize that Reid was a talented guy who was on his way up. At the time Holmgren left for the Seattle head coach and GM job, Sherman lewis was the offensive coordinator and there was plenty of talk of him becoming the next Packers head coach and picking Reid over Sherm seemed like a difficult thing to do at the time. Instead they brought in recently fired Ray Rhodes who kept Sherman Lewis as his offensive coordinator and Emmitt Thomas as the defensive coordinator.
Andy Reid was hired as the Eagles head coach and I recall reading an article in which it was said that Reid gave the most impressive interview for the job where he laid out all of his plans and operating procedures that they had ever seen.
The 1999 the Packers had a terrible season after going to the Super Bowl the previous two years and Ray Rhodes was fired by Ron Wolf. I feel the Packers wanted to interview Andy Reid who was the quarterbacks coach at the time, but the situation was such that they just didn't feel comfortable in doing so.
HarryHodag
February 10, 2023 at 09:24 am
The problem with the salary cap is not mainly the QB issue but the team around the QB's. It's time the loyal fans face the fact this roster is not good enough to win it all. It might now(probably not) be good enough to win the division next year.
Yes, the Chiefs have proven you can win with a tight cap. But the Chiefs personnel choices have been good to great. The Packers are starting to reap the "reward" for signing players who either have been injured or under performed. Some of it was bad luck. Signing David B. was ok at the time then he got hurt. Campbell got paid and didn't have a good year. Creed Humphrey is in the Pro Bowl and Myers is having an off year. One of the players who is playoff caliber is Jaire Alexander.
Some teams don't play the loyalty card unlike the Packers. It's time for a cold, hard look at every position and say, 'is this player the best we can do?"
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 09:35 am
Very true. Also, the Chiefs draft very well and Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the league.
MainePackFan
February 10, 2023 at 03:44 pm
"But the Chiefs personnel choices have been good to great."
Like MVS ? I'm fairly confident neither one of us was advocating paying MVS 30M. I could be wrong.
LambeauPlain
February 10, 2023 at 09:46 am
The difference between the Chiefs/Eagles and Packers is the former have solid coaching leadership and develop identities players buy into.
They also have functioning GMs and not a meddling President obsessed playing NFL owner and Acting GM. And he's not very good at it.
Other than that...
Leatherhead
February 10, 2023 at 09:49 am
I would hate having to be a fan of a team where I thought our GM was nonfunctional, our President was an obsessed meddler, etc.
Maybe you should consider the Lions. I hear they've changed.
Bitternotsour
February 10, 2023 at 11:05 am
it pretty much sucks to be a fan of a team whose president is an obsessive meddler, and whose coach is a weak sister. it also sucks when the amazingly gifted QB gets obsessed with his own voice and his unrestricted narcissism drags down coaches and the entire team around him.
yeah, that is it. perhaps you know that fandom in Wisconsin is our birthright. The team is ours, not some billionaire wildcatter, or a car dealer or some internet magnate. we are sadly stuck with the product that is presented to us, and some of us have suffered mightily from our early day expectations of winning ALWAYS, to the sad seventies and eighties. it sucks right now, and that suck lands squarely on Mark Murphy.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 12:21 pm
Wishing for something doesn't change the reality. I do not like having a meddler as an owner, nor do I like commenting about it. However, that doesn't change that Murphy is one.
Also, I do like Gutekunst a lot.
dobber
February 10, 2023 at 09:46 am
The bottom line is that for the Packers to be a playoff team in 2023 (and 2024), they need to play better than they did in 2022 with largely the same guys plus a few draft picks. Development is the main issue. They have a key player (Gary) who is unlikely to be at full strength until 2024, but they have showed growth over 2022 in the OL through Tom and recovering players (Jenkins, Bakhtiari), and at WR as Watson came along. Winning teams find ways to get the most out of the supporting cast while also getting star play from their stars. It's an obvious statement, but the Packers were less than the sum of their parts for large pieces of last year--8-9 finish. Under the current cap situation, this team needs to find ways to get more from less.
Leatherhead
February 10, 2023 at 09:53 am
""The bottom line is that for the Packers to be a playoff team in 2023 (and 2024), they need to play better than they did in 2022 with largely the same guys plus a few draft picks. Development is the main issue. ""
I'd agree with all that. As I look at our preferred 45 man squad, I see quite a few of the same people we finished last season with. We're hoping Stokes and Wyatt and Walker are better this year on defense, we're hoping that Watson and Doubs are better on offense than last year. And we'll add a couple of key pieces, but as you noted, it's largely the same guys.
The 8-9 finish? A little better offense would have tilted that to 11-7. And a little better health in our Oline and/or WRs could have made that difference.
Coldworld
February 10, 2023 at 10:18 am
All very nice. Be better. Yes. I’m sure we all agree on that. The issue is not that we need to get better but what we need to change to do so. That debate is what all this and its myriad antecedents come down to. The one seeming consensus is that the status quo isn’t the answer, yet the perception is clearly that that is what Murphy and LaFleur want. Continuity is more of the same.
Leatherhead
February 10, 2023 at 06:13 pm
Why isn't the status quo acceptable??. We put a good product on the field. In the wonderful words of What If, where people don't get hurt, we're better than 8-9. We're a playoff team,maybe even the conference semifinals. or better.
Next fall, we're going to put a team on the field which is really going to be the Gutekunst/LaFleur team. The QB they acquired and developed is ready to roll. We have one of the game's best 1-2 punches at RB. We have a future star in Watson. We'll have a veteran offensive line. And we'll have the draft picks we get for Rodgers. And we might even see the cap situation change so it doesn't look so dire.
You see all this as a 1265 Brass fiasco, with meddling presidents, an acquiescent Board, a neutered GM , a coach and staff that's in water over their head.
I don't see any of it that way. If we win the division again with LaFleur, Love, etc., then I'm not sure how you just explain all this away.
croatpackfan
February 10, 2023 at 11:13 am
"Their first option is move forward with Aaron Rodgers. You know, the Super Bowl winning quarterback who has won 2 of the last 3 MVPs.
Detractors point out his monster contract and say that there's no way the Packers could field a competitive team with such a big cap hit."
Why you mentioning ACR has SB ring and 4 MVPs (2 of the last 3 MVPs). That is already distant history. I thought it is not about "what you did for us, but what you can do for us!"
Well, lets try to get Tom Brady back from retirement! He won 7 SB and 3 MVPs. He must be much better than ACR. Oh, yes, he is old and his record is now distant history. But why do you take it for granted that ACR is better option than Tom Brady. At least Tom Brady won 4 SB after very distant win in 2011 ACR has with Packers and he won SB 2021 when ACR won MVP. SO, who would you like more?
Packers will never ever win SB with ACR at QB. Period. He is in decline and like ancient football schemes. And have authorities to change every play he does not like at the line of scrimmage. Where do you think that will bring Packers in 2023 and more in future. And, you see, I do not even mention monster contract.
I would really like ACR to retire and stay in our collective memory as top 3 QB ever played for Packers (Starr, ACR and Favre), not to embarrass himself additionally by old man type of playing ancient football...
It is the time for Packers and ACR to divorce with introducing him to Packers HOF and retiring his number. He deserved that well. And let him to do what he thinks is the best for him (retirement or trading him to his choice NFL team). I do not like when legends spoil their legacy with insane attitude and not accepting the truth.
Alberta_Packer
February 10, 2023 at 01:03 pm
There's much to be admired about graceful exits. Sadly it happens all too infrequently. Even the great Tom Brady false started - started - stumbled into his egress. As a graceful exit with Rodgers seems unlikely - I would settle for a friendly mutual parting of the ways. However, I'm not holding my breath on this scenario.
Booner
February 10, 2023 at 11:47 am
Come to the light Aaron! There Here!
Packers1985
February 10, 2023 at 11:54 am
What i see with both these teams is that they both boast a very good Oline. Chiefs oline leads the league in Pass blocking as per PFF and we all know how eagles oline always pound and grind and wins the LOS.
Whether we have Love or Rodgers(I want GB to move on from Qb12 . Best option for both the parties) at the center the best chance for this team would be to strengthen our Oline.
PackyCheese500
February 10, 2023 at 12:58 pm
True!
Alberta_Packer
February 10, 2023 at 12:34 pm
We may see the design-build blueprints of the Chiefs & Eagles but without the proper architects and building contractors - these plans are merely sheets of paper. In all the key areas - management, coaching, players (particularly QB) - both teams have a qualitative advantage over the GBP. Moreover it seems that the Chiefs and Eagles allow their GMs ample room to do their jobs - without an intrusive President constantly peering over their shoulders.