Can Packers Find Their Way to Safety?
The position is thin after Savage, who is a big question after regression.
Reflecting on the Packers’ draft after a couple of months, and with OTAs and mini-camp complete, I remain enthusiastic about Green Bay’s chances this season. Some players will hit and others won’t, injuries are a constant X-factor, and we need to see whether Love means Gutekunst never has to say he’s sorry. But the direction this class represents — especially on offense — is what I’ve been hoping to see.
It’s clear that Matt LaFleur told Gute how he intends to evolve the post-Rodgers offense, and the GM obliged with a fit-for-purpose draft class that not only has intriguing prospects, but better aligns personnel and scheme. Sounds obvious, but it doesn’t always happen across the NFL, including at Lombardi Avenue.
With training camp about to start, one glaring hole is at safety, where the team is banking heavily on Darnell Savage, who has regressed since flashing star potential in 2020. (A variety of injuries hasn’t helped, but he was also benched last year for poor play.) If he doesn’t rebound, there is no proven depth.
Modern offenses put a great deal of pressure on safeties, who now must be able to play the run as effectively as the pass. This has driven a physical evolution and the emergence of the hybrid linebacker/safety.
Three things are critical for today’s safeties: Being a willing and capable tackler, being scheme-versatile and demonstrating fast play recognition and comfort with post-snap rotations. In other words, the things Adrian Amos was good at in his prime (and might still be).
Which is why I choked a bit when the Packers passed on Brian Branch in the second round of the draft. As much as I like Jayden Reed, Branch was by far the cream of a weak safety class — despite being a bit undersized — and fell to serious value territory. Not only did Green Bay pass on him, they traded with the Lions, who valued Branch enough to move up for him.
So the safety group behind Savage, competing for what likely will be four additional spots, is this bunch of just-a-guys: Rudy Ford, Tarvarius Moore, Jonathan Owens, Dallin Leavitt, Innis Gaines, Anthony Johnson Jr. and Benny Sapp.
A six-year pro, Ford is the favorite to start alongside Savage, and the good news is he has shown growth in the last two seasons. But in 17 games with the Packers last season he recorded 10 fewer tackles than he did in 15 games with the Jaguars the year before. He did have a career-best three picks last year, including one for a long return.
Moore, a free-agent signing from San Francisco, similarly has one solid year on his four-year resume. The traits king of the group at 6’2 and fast, he unfortunately has been unable to stay healthy on a consistent basis.
Owens, a.k.a. Mr. Simone Biles, is another addition with a strikingly similar resume: in the league for four years, with one decent year of production, last season as a starter in Houston.
Johnson is the most intriguing of the group. A seventh-round selection who converted from corner to safety at Iowa State, Johnson projects as a free safety, which would enable Savage to concentrate on the box role that seems to best suit him. With his experience at corner, Johnson checks the scheme-versatile box, and he is a punishing tackler. Powerfully built with long arms, decent speed and top jumping scores, he’s physically built for both run and pass coverage, particularly against tight ends.
Leading up to the draft, the analysts over at PFF were beating the drum hard for Johnson, noting his consistent college production. Johnson ended up 90th on their big board of all draft-eligible players, which would roughly translate to a fourth-round prospect.
But PFF was the outlier. Other analysts dinged Johnson for being too upright and stiff transitioning between moving backward and forward, an essential quality for safeties. His agility scores were mediocre at best, with a poor shuttle grade. And so he fell, after which PFF proclaimed him the steal of the seventh round.
The remaining guys in the safety room look to be primarily special teams contributors.
The hope is that Savage rebounds as he grows more comfortable in Joe Barry’s scheme and finds a consistent role that best leverage his abilities. And perhaps the Packers plucked Ford, Moore and Owens at the right, ascending times in their careers after a few years of figuring things out, and in Moore’s case staying healthy. At the very least, this would provide the Packers with competent safety play.
The x-factor with Johnson will be his ability to process and diagnose as plays develop, which would outweigh any agility concerns. There’s enough overall potential there to envision a world where safety play becomes one of this team’s strengths. How the safety position plays out will be one of the most important things to watch during the rest of the pre-season.
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Jonathan Krim grew up in New York but got hooked on the Packers — and on hating the Cowboys — watching the Ice Bowl as a young child. He blames bouts of unhappiness in his late teens on Dan Devine. A journalist for several decades who now lives in California, he enjoys trafficking in obscure cultural references, lame dad jokes and occasionally preposterous takes. Jonathan is a Packers shareholder, and insists on kraut with his brats. You can follow Jonathan on twitter at @Jkrim.
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Comments (27)
croatpackfan
July 20, 2023 at 03:10 pm
"The position is thin after Savage, who is a big question after regression."
Packers have 8 safeties on the roster at the moment. More than half have NFL experience - 2 rookies and the rest have 2 to 7 years under their belt. Hardly thin group!
WestCoastPackerBacker
July 20, 2023 at 05:35 pm
Yeah, but very little of that is starting quality experience and a ton of it is ST experience. There's a reason these guys were available to GB; they weren't worth keeping on their past teams.
greengold
July 20, 2023 at 06:40 pm
Like De’Vondre Campbell? (1st Team All-Pro 2021)
Like Rasul Douglas?
Like Keisean Nixon?
Like Justin Hollins? (9 tackles, 2.5 sacks, three tackles for loss, 9 pressures and four quarterback hits in just six games)
Say what you want, Gutekunst and his Pro Personnel Scouting Staff have been working at a very high level.
This last one, McGough, could be big too, along with any number of others. Gotta give them at least the chance to compete, and the due respect proven by the recent FAs listed.
S Tarvarius Moore was a top Safety prospect in the 2018 draft. SF immediately moved him to CB as a rookie. That was their mistake. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Moore were to win a starting Safety position in Green Bay.
mrtundra
July 21, 2023 at 08:12 am
Yeah, I'm thinking that Savage's spot will be won by Moore or Owens with Rudy Ford making his case for the starting job, if Savage cannot make a go of it.. I love Ford's speed! Anthony Johnson Jr will be in the mix, as well, and I think he is whom the coaches are looking at to step forward. I think Savage may be relegated to nickel or dime packages, as he was last season and especially so if he hasn't picked up his game early on, in this upcoming season. Innis Gaines could also make a play for starting time. Larry McCarren had an interesting video on Gaines on The Rock Report on Packers.com. We have depth at the S position, so the rotation there could see everyone playing over the season and especially if the injury bug comes around that unit. We also picked up three UDFA Safeties, after the draft, in Benny Sapp III, Christian Morgan and Jason Scruggs. Camp will tell us a lot about who gets to play.
SicSemperTyrannis
July 21, 2023 at 10:18 pm
We have a lot of bodies but we have no idea how any of them will stack up against competition. This will certainly be one of the many competitions to watch in TC.
greengold
July 27, 2023 at 07:57 am
Agree the Safety battle is going to be one of the biggest positional battles on this team.
I found Moore’s & Carpenter’s DNPs from yesterday curious because it seems the Packers hold both players in high regard. Were they purposely held out to give more of what are precious reps to others to better evaluate who sticks?
Another factor which might be in play is maybe the Packers aren’t really wanting to show their intentions with both players in public practices.
Those possibilities wouldn’t surprise me.
Here’s a refresher on Moore’s draft profile notes I have from 2018:
Tarvarius Moore - Southern Miss
6-2 191 4.32 11.1 broad 38.5 vertical RAS 9.22
During Moore’s Senior year (2017) 522 of his 831 defensive snaps were either in the box or at FS, earning an elite run-defense grade of 90.2 that ranked 1st among the 123 draft-eligible safeties and an 82.9 coverage grade that ranked tied for 18th.
His last two years Moore had an 86.2 coverage grade and allowed just nine completions on 24 targets for 173 yards and one touchdown, 5 INT, 2 PBU. Passer rating allowed off just 37.7 on throws into his coverage — 3rd best among Safeties with at least 20 targets in coverage.
Moore’s a premium athlete w smooth hips, fluid feet, ability to handle man cover matchups that others could struggle with.
LambeauPlain
July 21, 2023 at 08:34 am
Good points. Gutey does find solid talent when he's not drafting it (also effective).
I like these S prospects. Competition will be fierce. The key (as it usually is), will be coaching the young talent up.
For the Defense, talent is not a concern. Coaching is.
I was not too high on Branch. He's a good player on a very good team. He took advantage of the synergies around him with the Tide. But I believe Reed adds so much more value to the O than Branch would have to the D.
greengold
July 26, 2023 at 07:04 pm
Oh, man! Totally agree LP!
Imagine, this was the first draft DL was deep in a draft in years. The Packers took 3 of them.
Safety has not been deep in years. I looked in on 2024, and I think there could be as many as 6 Safeties selected by the end of R2 in 2024. That’s got to be a part of Gutekunst’s plan. Maybe one or more make it a non-issue with great play…
Gutekunst AND his Pro Personnel Staff (!) blew me away with the Campbell & Douglas additions. Maybe it happens at Safety too.
Leatherhead
July 20, 2023 at 03:51 pm
I continue to hear this thrown around on the internet
"He was benched for poor play"
He was drafted in the first round, he's done better than any other safety in that draft, he's been a starter since Day One. Last year, for one of the league's better pass defenses, he played 99% of the snaps for the first 11 games. Then, against Philadelphia, he did not start, took one snap and hurt his foot, and didn't really play again for a month (we had a bye week in there). When he returned, he played the majority of the snaps the next two games and in the season finale, when he played every snap in our most important game of the year.
So there's your regression, at least in the eyes of the coaches. That's a benching.
IMO, Savage will start at one of the safety spots until we have two guys who are better, which we don't. I think Ford is the front runner for the other, although Jonathan Owens was in on 125 tackles for hapless Houston last year. We do some 3 safety looks so we can use anybody who can play. Tariq Carpenter....is he an OLB? An ILB, A Safety?
greengold
July 20, 2023 at 06:10 pm
On Carpenter, the answer is YES!
The Packers staff has been pretty clear that Tariq Cartpenter is being trained as a hybrid ILB/S. Spent last season in the Safety Room, moved him this year to the LB Room.
Tariq Carpenter is 6-2 225 with a 4.51 40 time. He’s a thumper too.
DB Coach Ryan Downard:
“I stood up here last year and said he’s a hybrid. He’s kind of a freak athletically. I think he gives us some options to do some more exotic things with him just because he can rush the passer. We’re going to see if he can do that, we’re going to see if he can cover. I’m sidestepping your question right now because I don’t have an answer. He’s got the ability to play both really.”
Brian Gutekunst:
“He’s a little bit of a tweener because he’s got the size of a linebacker but he plays safety and he has that kind of speed,” Gutekunst said. “He’s really, really physical. I think we’ll kind of figure out exactly where he fits, whether he goes to that safety room or the linebacker room at different times and what packages he plays in on defense and certainly on special teams. That was one of the big reasons we took him.”
That plays right into the “Illusion of Complexity” thing LaFleur mentioned as a motivating factor with the Joe Barry hiring.
I’ve never given up on Carpenter & would not be surprised to see him become an integral part of the Packers D before long.
SicSemperTyrannis
July 21, 2023 at 10:47 pm
GG I notice a common element here: PASS RUSH!
If we can disrupt the opponent's backfield that makes everything else easier for the rest of our defense, and our offense too. Some of our biggest problems may be trying to do line changes like a hockey team, and what works against one team we may not be able to do against another.
Just about everybody on this defense might rush the passer sometime, that could cause fits for opponents but it also requires excellent coaching decisions.
Should make for a very interesting year ...
greengold
July 23, 2023 at 01:09 pm
Exactly. Ever since Barry was hired I’ve felt the Packers at both LaFleur’s & Gutekunst’s direction were building an all-new flex Defense, one that morphs pre-snap to post snap into virtually any coverage or concept, with specialized multi-positional players able to run it all.
I’ll gladly wait for the book to come out on that, but, we’ve loaded this D with players to run THIS, specifically, via the only avenue we could afford: 1/2 of each of our last 3 drafts, and keen value FA signings.
I believe this is Year 1 for Barry in terms of real accountability, as he never had all the players he needed to run that.
ICBW, but, every player added since Barry’s hire brings multiple strength/positional offerings.
The DL added offer both solid pass rush AND solid run stop. OLBs? Same, plus the are able to drop back into coverage. ILBs show the biggest range in flexibility, in coverage, pass rush & run stop. DBs added are willing tacklers v. run, offer pass rush on the blitz, AND play solid coverage in both press man & zone. CBs & Safeties alike.
LaFleur stated that Illusion of Complexity was what he wanted for his Defense. Just like his Offense. That was during his Joe Barry DC hiring presser.
The moves since bear credence.
Finally, we may get to see both this season. Much of it for the first time on both sides of the ball.
lou
July 21, 2023 at 08:48 am
Per Pro Football Focus last season, "Savage's coverage grade is the lowest among safeties with at least 100 coverage snaps, and of 87 safeties to play at least 300 snaps in 2022, Savage ranked 82nd in missed-tackle percentage. He’s had double-digits misses in each of his four seasons. The question should be why wasn't he benched sooner ? Stockholder nailed it when he said he can't make open field tackles.
Do your research, the reason he was put back in the lineup was because they wanted Nixon to just do the returns and not risk his leg injury playing the slot, it was well documented and that decision produced huge dividends as Nixon solidified an All Pro return position. My guess is even after 5 fumbles you wouldn't have benched or traded Amari Rodgers.
Its a new season and we will know shortly how the safety position performs, an acquisition is not out of the question, the position is far from settled.
Leatherhead
July 21, 2023 at 10:04 am
Lou, think for a moment about this.
Savage is one of the worst starting safeties in the league, by the measures cited by ProfootbalFocus. And yet, the Packers have him on the field for 100% of the snaps, and the pass defense is one of the best in the league. Can you make that make sense for me? It seems to me like two incompatible truths, unless one of those things is not true.
About the tackling. The Packers had fewer missed tackles than most teams, and they gave up fewer yards after catch than most teams. Again, I'd like to know how this happens if Savage is the stiff you say he is.?? It doesn't add up to me.
Since you brought Nixon and Amari Rodgers into this, let me be clear: I think returning punts is a losing proposition. You will lose more in injuries, penalties, and turnovers than you will gain in return yards, so you should fair catch every punt, and if you don't think you can catch it safely (wind, whatever) then let it hit the ground, like Antonio Freeman often did. It's agonizing to watch that ball roll, but it's less harmful than a turnover. You can make up those yards with one successful pass play.
I'm also not understanding the rationale that they wanted to protect Nixon from injury so they had him return kicks? instead of lining up on likely pass plays? My experience is that the guy returning that kicks gets hit pretty hard, a lot harder than a dime back, and a guy who can cover is worth more than a guy who gets a few more yards on returns. Some kicks do have to be returned, and you do have to have somebody who can do it without turning it over, since fumbles on returns are really big plays in a game.
Nixon had a great year last year returning kicks, no doubt, but teams only return a kick for a TD about once every five years and I'm not counting on that again. And if he gets hurt returning a kick, we've lost a decent cover guy, too, and that would be the bigger loss.
You view returns as an opportunity to make a big play that helps you win the game. I view returns as an opportunity for a 22 year old rookie on the bottom of your roster to screw up and cost you the game, and you're going to get guys hurt in the process. So my belief is that you should do what you can to minimize the impact the return teams has on the game.
greengold
July 21, 2023 at 10:47 am
A pretty damn solid retort. I've never said those words.
I've been a huge Savage fan. His struggles last season and over the past 3 seasons were a bit demoralizing to me, personally. Despite a somewhat extensive injury history, he's only missed 4 games in 4 years. He played through a lot of these injuries:
2019 Ankle
2020 Groin, Quadricep, Groin
2021 Shoulder, Concussion
2022 Foot
In his 4 year career at Maryland (40 games) Savage had 182 Tackles, 9 TFL, 1 sack, 8 INT, 2 TDs, 13 PD and 1 FR.
In his 4 year career in GB (62 games) Savage had 251 Tackles, 8 TFL, 1 sack, 9 INT, 1 TD, 31 PD, 2 FF and 2 FR.
Left unexplained is what former Packers DB Coach, Jerry Gray, was doing? There was much talk after the season that he was calling coverages divergent from the wishes of DC Joe Barry. What gives??? That's insubordination at the highest level if true.
Jerry Gray is no longer a Packers position coach.
I find that entire situation incredibly murky, and if true, it had to have adversely affected quite a few other players in our secondary whose performances didn't measure up. Stokes. Douglas. Amos, to name a few. Maybe Jerry Gray wasn't all of that, as advertised from his tenure in MIN where Harrison Smith & Xavier Rhodes likely would have been superstars under any DB Coach... and, he couldn't do ANYTHING with Trae Waynes a former 1st Round Pick.
It does sometimes take a while for the light to go on with a player. As mentioned, it's possible that Jerry Gray stifled Savage's growth as a player. Maybe Savage would have been better served sitting out some of those injuries over the years, ones that proved too difficult to overcome.
Admittedly, while I've taken Savage out of my early 53 thinking he might not have the goods, maybe DB Coach Ryan Downard and Passing Game Coordinator Greg Williams can get him turned around.
lou
July 21, 2023 at 03:43 pm
After being down 3-0 after the first drive, the Green Bay Packers knew they needed a response to the Miami Dolphins. Special teams is still this team’s Achilles’ heel, and it’s hard to expect much from them. But then Keisean Nixon returned the ball 93 yards, temporarily flip-flopping the momentum of the game they would go on to win. Now Nixon is in danger of missing Week 17, which means the team’s playoff hopes are also in danger.
Packers fans haven’t seen a return specialist like that for over a decade, and it was exactly what this team needed. Even though it only led to a field goal, Nixon’s giant return still tied the game up early and helped set them on a course for their 26-20 victory. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel smirking at Aaron Rodgers while up 10 points also helped, though. They never learn.
Nixon left the Dolphins game with a groin injury, and he didn’t practice on Wednesday. However, he is trending toward playing but the team will not use him from scrimmage noting that the extra work with the nagging groin injury could make it worse and not allow him to return kicks for Green Bay because Nixon is the difference-maker the Packers need to beat the Vikings and inch closer to the playoffs.
He is their margin of error.
In regards to his tackling you need to address that issue with Pro Football Focus not me, that is their sole vocation to grade NFL players, based on my first post with their data on his coverage ability and tackling ability, if you translate that they are the ones calling him a Stiff that we traded up for and picked with a #1 draft choice.
Bitternotsour
July 21, 2023 at 02:01 pm
I continue to be amazed you are willing to do the heavy lift in regards to dispelling conventional wisdom. Your down votes are a validation.
At some point in your family tree there must be some intersection with Sisyphus.
greengold
July 20, 2023 at 04:24 pm
The Safety position has got me goin' freakin' bananas this year.
I was a fierce, staunch Darnell Savage fan from his drafting year. I freaked out when Gutekunst traded up for him. Blazing speed. Ball skills. Great as a FS, or up on the LOS over slot. Range for days.
What happened to that guy?
The year before, I wanted Tarvarius Moore! He's the only Safety on our roster with an INT in a Super Bowl. Moore brings BOTH size &. speed. Hits like a ton - described as an assassin v. the run.
The 49ers made a huge error trying to convert this lifelong Safety into a CB as a rookie. They were enamored with his size, similar to Richard Sherman, whom they signed as a FA prior to that draft.
I think Moore is really going to like being a full-time Safety in GB, and that he wins one of our starting slots.
Johnson Jr. was an absolutely golden pick in April at #242 of R7. Anthony Johnson Jr. was ranked #151 Overall by TSN. Faster and More explosive than Branch, with plus instincts as well v. run or pass in press man & zone coverages. 243 tackles, 14 TFL, 3 sacks, 5 FF, 30 PD and 2 INT over 62 games at Iowa St.
Owens shows a lot of promise. Ford has much room yet to grow, but, he's there at the #2 until he's unseated. I think he will be.
If I had to pick 2 players this team moves forward with, I'd pick Moore and Owens. Maybe Johnson Jr... Savage has disappointed for 3 full years. Ford was MIA vs. the run game last season. I still LOVE Innis Gaines, and hope he plays well to win a spot on this 53.
2024's draft has talent at S, with a projected 5 of them to be taken by the end or R2. Kinchens. Bullock. Williams Bishop and Makuba are already on my list for us next year.
I'm hopeful 2023's starters and backups make drafting a S a non-issue in 2024.
HarryHodag
July 20, 2023 at 05:11 pm
Thank goodness training camp is about to start and we don't have to speculate about the team, as things will be evident to see.
WestCoastPackerBacker
July 20, 2023 at 05:36 pm
Hahahahaha good one. The speculation will go on for a good long time yet.
splitpea1
July 20, 2023 at 06:13 pm
Savage: His position coach says he needs to play looser, probably think less (in terms of just reacting on the field) and improve his tackling. We'll see whether or not his last couple of games were a mirage, and tackling has obviously never been his strong suit. Healthy skepticism should remain until proven otherwise.
Owens: Definitely a better tackler and suited to run support. I don't think we want to see much of him in coverage.
Ford: Can play both safety positions, but has never done a full season on defense.
Johnson, Jr. : You know the Packers are really hoping he develops to minimize the looming need in next year's draft. But he had only one year of safety experience in college, and will need additional time in learning to play deep.
I would have loved to have taken a safety earlier, but we also needed another receiver and a pair of TEs just as badly. Jordan Battle might have been a nice fit, but he was gone at the end of the third round. True, his athletic numbers weren't what Gute salivates after, but he's a versatile defender who's usually in the right place. Oh, well....Unfortunately you can't complete a rebuilding process in one draft.
stockholder
July 20, 2023 at 06:23 pm
The Lions are going to win the Division.
And Gutey Gift wrapped, Brian Branch to them.
Savage can't change his spots.
He just can't make an open field tackle.
The safety position could cost Barry his job.
I don't like the worst case scenario.
But thats exactly where we are.
jannesbjornson
July 21, 2023 at 10:48 am
Can't burn a one and four pick and get a guy who fits best as a slot CB; read 'em and weep. Branch ? Benton would have been the guy, but the Steelers snagged him in front of the chessmaster The Amari Rodgers debacle vs Amon-Ra created another backward rotation to fill the depth chart. I would still try to deal for Budda Baker for the SS.
greengold
July 23, 2023 at 02:08 pm
Did a deep dive on Budda Baker:
S Budda Baker
5-10 195 4.45 (83.4%), 72.5” wingspan, 32” vertical, 115 broad, 4.08 20 yd shuttle (80%), 6.76 3 cone (88%).
3-Time All-Pro, 5 -Time Pro Bowl
Just 6 missed games in 6 seasons. Great near LOS. Great run support. Great blitzing QB in pass rush. + ball skills.
93 Games, 7 INT, 34 PD, 6 FF, 5 FR, 1 TD, 7.5 sacks, 650 tackles, 32 TFL, 15 QB hits, 24 QB hurries.
*60 missed tackles in 6 years. Between 10-11% MTkl% over the last 3 years. Baker was under 9% his first 3 seasons.
Second-highest tackling efficiency of all Pac-12 safeties when defending the run.
Defeats blocks well/tackles well around LOS on screens/Jet sweeps.
Solid zone coverage in slot.
Tackling in open space & size had been his biggest problems prior to draft. He’s built to play near the LOS.
Compares favorably to Tyrann Matthew. Price in trade is rumored to be the Packers R2 & R3 in 2024.
Seems he’d be best in the slot.
cdoemel
July 21, 2023 at 01:51 am
Can everyone just shut the fuck up and let the games happen?
TXCHEESE
July 21, 2023 at 08:28 am
Agreed. How can any of us proclaim who is and is not starting safety quality? Guys change and improve from year to year. Savage and Amos, as good as both can be individually just never meshed like many expected. Sometimes you just need a new partner to be a better dancer.
Booner
July 21, 2023 at 08:59 am
Gute is a moron! Who trades with a division rival and gives up the best safety in the draft when it is one of your biggest needs? WTF can't wait for the season to start!