Around the NFC North: 2024 Week 10
How lucky can you be?
By Mike Price

We were that close to a 0-3 NFC North weekend while the Packers had a bye. The Texans had the biggest choke job of the year on Sunday night and the Vikings were able to squeak by the Jaguars. At least the Bears still suck. Let's get into the games.
Vikings
The Vikings beats the Jaguars 12-7.
Game Notes
- Remember a couple months ago when Jordan Love was the reportedly the worst QB in the division and the other North fans were slobbering over how great their QBs are? This was definitely not a great week for them, starting with Sam Darnold. The Vikings QB is almost to bench him territory, completing 24 of 38 passes for 241 yards and three interceptions. I won't criticize the Jags defense that much - because they held the Packers to a worse game than expected - but they have been the worst defense in the league for a lot of the year. No TDs and three picks against the Jags is crazy. Imagine what this offense would be like if they didn't have Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones.
- Jefferson had a relatively pedestrian 48 yards (TJ Hockenson led the team in receiving with 72 yards) but Aaron Jones was back in his groove with 88 rush yards on 17 carries and another 13 yards through the air.
- The defense played well, but let's be realistic here - it was against Mac Jones and the Jaguars. Andrew Van Ginkel, Ivan Pace Jr and Blake Cashman all had sacks and Byron Murphy Jr and Cam Bynum both had interceptions.
- I'm certainly not ready to say the Vikings defense is back after several weeks of meh play. Really, I'd be nervous as a Vikings fan. You couldn't even put down a Jags team QB'ed by Mac Jones? I'm sure the defense will continue to take advantage of bad offenses and/or and QBs but what can this team do against good teams? Not much.
Bears
The Patriots stomped the Bears, 19-3.
Game Notes
- View discretion advised for this section.
- The Bears have the worst offense in the NFL. It might not be close. The Patriots had the 29th ranked defense via DVOA. They held the Bears to 142 yards. 2.4 per play. The Pats had 16 sacks going into the game and they sacked Caleb Williams 9 times. Williams was 16/30 for 120 yards and no TDs.
- Well, at least they have D'Andre Swift right? The running back they opened free agency by offering a big contract to. Wrong. Swift had just 59 yards on 16 carries. No aspect of the Bears offense was even replacement level in this game. It's hard to imagine a worse start for the Bears' nth QB of the future. He was supposed to have a fancy new OC, an amazing receiving corps, a run game to lean on, and pro-bowlers on the o-line. Instead he has nothing! And he's bad too. It's great.
- Even better, the defense is terrible now. The team kept Eberflus this season because he turned the defense around last year after that weird FBI stuff with the defensive coordinator. Right now, they have the number 30 defense by DVOA. They generated a pick in this one and had a sack, but 328 yards and five scores is definitely more than the Pats are used to getting on offense.
- The Bears and Vikings are who we thought they were. The problem is that the Lions keep winning.
- P.S. watch the video in this tweet, it's amazing. Can't get enough schadenfreude from Big Cat.
Lions
The Lions came back to beat the Texans, 26-23.
Game Notes
- Last week, we talked about how crazy it was that the Lions had won two straight games where they were out gained by 150 yards. They one-upped that this week, surviving five Jared Goff interceptions to beat the Texans. This is like the 9th time that Goff has thrown five picks and won. Insane. If anyone tells you that QB wins should be a stat, tell them to seek mental help.
- Anyway, the Texans, who have one of the best four-man rushes in the NFL, held Goff to 15/30 for 240 yards, two TDs and the five interceptions. Really bad! The Texans had full control of the game in the first half - they led 23-7 at the end of the half and then Carlton Davis picked CJ Stroud to start the third quarter as Dan Campbell told the sideline reporter that they needed to force a turnover. Of course.
- The Lions never really took over with their offense. Goff had the horrific line we talked about above, Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 3.7 yards per carry and David Montgomery averaged 2.7. Gibbs had a long catch for 33 yards to convert a first down but that was about it. Even the Sun God didn't produce much until the fourth quarter when he had a few key catches (including the turning point TD).
- The Lions turned the game around with their defense. We always knew they could stop the run and they held Joe Mixon to 46 yards on 25 carries - the fewest ever yards for a back who had 25 carries. The difference from last year is that they held CJ Stroud to 68 yards and two picks in the second half, after giving up 164 and a TD in the first. That's what kept them in the game and eventually allowed them to make two 50-yard field goals in the fourth, one to tie and one to win.
- Just think about how crazy this win is. How many insane things had to happen. They held an above average NFL RB to 1.8 yards per carry and his offensive coordinator kept giving him the ball. Their QB had five interceptions and it didn't matter. One of the top five QBs from last season completely choked away the second half, not being able to move the ball and turning it over twice. And then, of course, the two 50-yard full pressure made field goals in the fourth. Maybe it is the Lions year.
- I've argued for years that it's worse to be a fan of a really good team that chokes in the playoffs than to be a fan of a bad team. With the good team, you're always ready for something to go wrong, you never fully buy in, you're just waiting for the gut punch. With the bad team, at least you don't get your hopes up. It will be interesting to see what Lions fans think if they lose in the playoffs and don't make the super bowl again - most of the current fans lived through decades of bad play. Admittedly, a bunch of the current fans were probable Cowboy fans or something, so they would have only had a decade or two of bad play.
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Mike Price is a lifelong Packers fan who recently moved from Utah to Stoughton (a Madison suberb). You can follow him on twitter at @themikeprice.
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Comments (16)
dobber
November 12, 2024 at 10:33 am
The Vikings' decline last year started with Cousins' injury, but really accelerated when Hockenson got hurt and they needed to rely on Mullens making decisions. Hockenson being back will help whomever is chucking INTs for the purple haze and their defense will be fine...until they're not. They should handle a bad TN team in Nashville this week, but they look like they're a .500 team at best the rest of the way even with a pretty forgiving schedule.
When was the last time a team with a winning record struggled as badly after their bye as the Bears have? They canned their OC today, which likely means Eberflus is done at the end of the year unless they go on a tear...which they won't. Every team on their schedule--except Seattle who is 4-5--the rest of the way is .500 or better. Last week I argued that they need to let Williams chuck it downfield, loosen up defenses, and take their chances with INTs. Well, if they do that, they'll be taking the pieces of Williams off the field in a couple hefty bags because his OL can't protect him. They'll play a lot of tight, low-scoring games because their defense keeps teams out of the end zone...but they can be run on, which the Packers should do early and often this week.
Detroit loses to Houston if Stroud had anyone to throw to...that's why they kept giving Mixon the ball: with Collins and Diggs on the shelf, they have only one guy to throw to. So the Lions' fans are clamoring around "team of destiny" rhetoric. Gross.
Bitternotsour
November 12, 2024 at 10:43 am
Woulda coulda shoulda, the Bears should have traded down and taken Penix or Nix. I knew Nix would outperform Caleb (and I know, I said it repeatedly) - now they're committed to a guy who has no internal clock, no instincts, and a million dollar arm. Hello Jay Cutler version 2. The Vikings are about to realize why Sam Darnold was available at all.
Detroit may well win the division now, but they are not getting out of the NFC. Goff showed exactly why on Sunday night.
Starrbrite
November 12, 2024 at 08:35 pm
Exactly—there is a reason Darnold was available.
Bearmeat
November 12, 2024 at 06:17 pm
The Lions have a comeuppance due in January. Their fans will be crushed. It’s gonna be great.
Starrbrite
November 12, 2024 at 08:37 pm
Right—the Lions fans are strutting around like they’ve won multiple SB’s.
greengold
November 15, 2024 at 10:11 am
Tight.
splitpea1
November 12, 2024 at 11:19 am
New offensive coordinator for the Bears: Waldron is done and Thomas Brown is in. Brown has coached with the Panthers and McVay Rams previously. The players should be energized because Waldron really wasn't too popular. The Packers can hopefully spoil his debut with an aggressive defensive game plan against THAT offensive line.
Lions: You have to give them credit. Like the Chiefs, they find a way to win when they don't have their best day at the office; it's all coaching and player execution in the clutch.
Texans: They have to give those otherworldly uniforms a second chance--very similar to Tropical Glitz brand automotive spray paint, "Cosmic Red."
Starrbrite
November 12, 2024 at 08:38 pm
…oh-oh—-I kinda like those unis.
Leatherhead
November 12, 2024 at 11:38 am
Verily, I say unto you, sometimes it is better to be lucky than good.
I thought that if the Packers could win their next 3 games at Chicago, and at home against SF and Miami....then we could go into the rematch with the Lions with a chance to move into first place. All that was needed was a Lion loss against Texans-Jaguars-Colts-Bears. I thought the best hope was @Texans. Now, I think the Lions could be 11-1 when we meet again. Even if the Packers go undefeated the rest of the way, they still need somebody else to beat the Lions in order to win the division,
The Bears. Saw a hilarious clip on Facebook which shows two Bears fan lamenting their team to the tune of "Dust In The Wind". We have a chance to end any remaining hope, and there's nobody I'd rather see disheartened than the Bears.
Vikings are winning games that could have become losses. Jacksonville is the first of three consecutive road games, and then Minnesota has three home games with Cardinals, Falcons and Bears at home. Then they play @Seattle, home against the Packers, and @Detroit. If they make the playoffs, they'll have earned that, but I don't see it.
Eagles and Commies from the NFC East.
Lions and Packers from the NFC North
Atlanta from the NFC South
That's six playoff teams, and doesn't include whoever wins the West. I could see Minnesota going like 10-7 and finishing 3rd in the division if they don't completely collapse.
Giants, Cowboys, Bears, New Orleans, Carolina,.....thank you for your participation. You aren't going anywhere this year. Accept that and try to get a headstart on next year.
My most probable scenario for the Packers is the #5 seed and a road game against the winner of the NFC West.
LLCHESTY
November 12, 2024 at 03:59 pm
Minnesota would really have to collapse to not get the 7th seed. It's possible but two wins the rest of the way could also get them there.
Starrbrite
November 12, 2024 at 08:41 pm
LH— A very good analysis—thank you.
LambeauPlain
November 12, 2024 at 02:19 pm
Lions had a kicker barely nail two 50 + yard kicks whispers inside the uprights...the first on the right to tie, the second on the left to win.
Both kicks were necessary to win the game. Meanwhile in the 4th, one kick for the Texans was required to possibly win the game, or force OT. Huge whiff to the left.
The game of literal inches (or less).
If only the Pack had such stone cold kicking results. Oh well. If wishes were fishes I could open up a Seafood Shop.
Gman1976
November 12, 2024 at 02:45 pm
The Lions can credit whoever the Texans' offensive coordinator is for their win. Time and time again, the Texans ran the ball up the gut on first down with little or no success. I didn't count how many times the same or a similar play on first down was called, but it was ridiculous. I kept telling myself, "It can't be another run up the middle on first down." But sure enough, the Texans kept putting their offense in a hole and having to gain more yards. Unbelievable! I am no football genius, but if something doesn't work again and again, why not do some play action and attempt to fool someone?
LLCHESTY
November 12, 2024 at 04:04 pm
When you have a lead you want to burn clock but doing it stupidly doesn't help. Getting slightly creative in the run game might of helped or just going with a short passing game after instructing the receivers to stay inbounds might have worked as well. Stroud throwing that Int to start the 2nd half didn't help.
Starrbrite
November 12, 2024 at 08:34 pm
I’ve said many times (and many disagreed), Dan Campbell is a big dufus—Ben Johnson is their coaching star. The Lions simply lucked out. And, the extremely obvious missed PI call saved the game for them.
As for the Vikings—couldn’t score a TD vs the Jags. As many on this site have noted, these are Vikings we well know—a sprinter’s start followed by a broken wheelchair finish.
Go Packers!!!
porupack
November 13, 2024 at 07:08 am
Nice summary of the NFC north. It's premature to write off Minnepo. All teams can and have played bad games against bad teams. There are units in bad teams that can be particularly challenging for good teams, such as Texans were able to flummax Detro and Jags against Minnepo and....well....the packers. Minnepo is a solid team....and a few bad games aren't excused....but can't generalize too much from one or two bad games. Whatever matrix one judges the competition, use for Packers. Even considering the past 2 weeks....Packers are 3rd in the NFC-N, and probably won't change this weekend coming. It will take head-to-head match ups to see who is really contending. Bears suck...but they can still be a spoiler. Never write off any team.....as the packers should well remind themselves.