Why would we try to contend for another year with a base roster that is currently 5-8? Especially when we will likely be over the cap once the 2023 figure is released? This makes no sense to me - Trying to win a super bowl when we are currently 5-8 and over the cap for 2023? It won't happen. If we really want to have the best shot of winning a ring in the next 5 years, we'd be better off by cutting/trading some of the expensive veterans, acquiring lots of 2023 draft capital, and use the 2023 draft to lay the foundation for the next era of Packers football.

We were able to contend in '20 and '21, 2023 is the time to pay the price for the cap hits we laid off. We won't be contending no matter what in 2023, so why should we impair the future any more than we already have? Use 2023 to absorb the big cap hits and give the young players experience while trying to win as much as we can. In 2024, we ideally will have an excellent core of young, cheap, talented players while having lots of 2024 cap space freed up from trading away veterans. We could have as much as 120m in cap space. From there, we can build the next contending Packers team, and hopefully, win a ring. This path gives us the best shot.

Here is my take on free agents: If we have leftover cap room and they are excessively cheap, or if they provide important off-the-field leadership (which would be especially important considering that many of our prospective 2023 players wouldn't have much experience) then we should sign them. However, if we would have to contort the salary cap in order to make a signing, then we shouldn't do it.

Here is what I would do if I were the GM of the Packers. Spotrac predicts that we will be .57m over the cap in 2023:

-Cut Luke Tenuta PrJ1 (pre June 1st) - saves .87m

-Cut Vernon Scott PrJ1 once he comes off IR - saves 1.01m

-Cut Royce Newman PrJ1 - saves .81m. I could see him being signed to the PS next year

-Cut Aaron Jones PrJ1 or trade Aaron Jones PrJ1 to the Miami Dolphins for a third-round pick. I don't see the Packers being able to keep Jones in 2023; they would save 10.4m by trading him or cutting him PrJ1. If possible, they should trade him, although teams may not be willing to take on a 28-year old RB with that kind of a cap hit. Regardless, we need the cap relief.

-Cut David Bakhtiari PoJ1 (post June 1st) - creates 17m of cap space after June 1st. Idk if we could find a trade partner given his large salary and injury history. If we can, we should trade him, but we need the cap relief first and foremost.

-Cut Adrian Amos PoJ1 - saves 5.7m. Amos will be a free agent in 2023, but by cutting him Poj1, we can eliminate some of the void money we would have to pay him. We should do this with more of our free agents with void years, but NFL teams can only cut a maximum of 2 players PoJ1.

-Trade Preston Smith PrJ1 to the Cincinnati Bengals for a 2023 4th-round pick - saves 3.28m. Smith will be 30, and I don't see him being part of the Packers' future. The Bengals need pass-rush depth.

Trade Kenny Clark PrJ1 to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a 2023 2nd-round pick - saves 3.08m. This is optional; I could see him being traded, but he could very feasibly stay. The benefits of trading him would be giving us an opportunity to draft a replacement in a good DL draft class while relieving our future salary cap of the expenses of his contract (it would save us 20m in 2024). Clark also seems to have undergone a bit of a regression in the past couple of years; he has't played great against the run in general, and when he has, he's been inconsistent. If we do keep Clark, I would like to see us permanently move him to Defensive End and draft a Nose Tackle in 2023 to rotate with TJ Slaton. That will allow him to have a larger impact as a pass rusher, and Clark is relatively small for a NT. If he is traded, Jacksonville has a terrible D-line, and they would gladly accept help.

-Trade Darnell Savage and Rasul Douglas PrJ1 to the Las Vegas Raiders for a 6th-round pick and a 7th-round pick - saves 7.9m for Savage and 3.32m for Douglas. Douglas I could very easily see the Packers retaining for 2023, although the likeliest scenario is that his 2021 season was a fluke. All I know is that the Raiders have one of the worst secondaries in the league, and anything would be an upgrade over what they have now.

-Trade Aaron Rodgers PrJ1 to the New York Jets for 2023 1st-and-4th round picks and 2024 2nd-and-4th round picks. Rodgers is on the decline, and they have an exciting young prospect in Jordan Love that they could lock up for much cheaper. I think that a contender with an excellent roster but bad QB play would be willing to give up quite a lot for him, even in the final years of his career. The Jets perfectly fit that bill. They have an elite roster but are being held back from SB contention because of bad QB play. Zach Wilson has been terrible, and Mike White is nothing but a second-rate Taylor Heinicke. Having Rodgers would give them a fully healthy future HOF QB and would put them firmly into the mix of SB contenders. If Rodgers really wants to win another ring, then he should want to go to New York; he knows and respects their HC Robert Saleh and already has familiarity with a LaFleur offense (Matt's brother is the Jets' OC). He has repeatedly said that he doesn't want to be part of a rebuild in GB, and that's exactly where we're headed.

Anyway, here's how Rodgers' contract works out: He has a 56m option bonus that the Packers pay him if he is on GB's roster by the start of the 2023 regular season. If he isn't, they don't have to pay him that money. If they trade him, then we would be paying him 40m in dead money and the team he would go to would pay cap hits of 15.5m and 31m in '23 and '24 before they go up to about 45m and 51m in '25 and '26, respectively. A trade would count only 8.6m more against the 2023 salary cap, not a whole 40m more, because the Packers have to pay him the dead money regardless of whether he goes or stays.

Another factor is a Rashan Gary extension. Extension simulations see him being paid about 23m yearly, and an extension would create 2.4m of cap space in 2023. Personally, I would extend him through 2025 with an out in his contract after 2024 so we are able to assess how well he has recovered from his ACL injury.

After all of this, we would end up with 24.43m of cap space Prj1 and 47.13m of cap space PoJ1.

Here are the moves I think we should do to take up that space:
-Exercise the Franchise Tag on Elgton Jenkins (it would be about 17.4m in 2023) and trade him for a 2023 2nd-round pick to an OL needy team like the Raiders or Steelers. Paying Jenkins would hamper our future cap (not to mention make everything about 2023 more difficult), and if we tag-and-trade him, like we did with Adams last year, we would at least get some compensation for him. There are a few of high-quality players we could draft to replace him in 2023.
-Offer Yosh Nijman a first-round RFA tender for approx. 6.95m. He is also eligible for a round 2 tender, but I think Yosh is important enough to our offensive line to warrant a first. I am a big fan of Yosh's, and I hope he gets a long-term contract after 2023.
-Re-sign Keisean Nixon, Krys Barnes, Rudy Ford, and Justin Hollins for 2m each. Nixon should be our long-term Returner. Barnes is a high-quality backup and good STer (I could also see us potentially trading De'Vondre Campbell in the 2023 season if he doesn't revert to form; he will be 30 next season regardless). Hollins is another high-quality backup and good rotational player; he actually was starting for the Rams at the beginning of this year opposite Leonard Floyd. Ford is a good #3 Safety and a good STer.
-Re-Sign Marcedes Lewis and Randall Cobb. Lewis will cost us around 1.9m on a 1-year deal if we offer him the same contract, and Cobb about 1.4m.
-Sign Juwann Winfree for 1m. Provides good ST work and WR depth.

PoJ1, it will take approximately 20.71 to sign each of our 2023 rookies with all of the trades we will have made. In addition, it will take .75m per player to sign Abernathy, Goodson, Heflin, Etling, Ahmed, and other UDFAs or other players.

It will cost us 19.25 of cap space to perform all of the PrJ1 moves and approximately 26.71m more cap space PoJ1. This gives us, when all is said and done, 42.96m of cap-absorbing moves This gives us 4.17m of cap space in 2023, less if you include wiggle room for the UDFAs and backups. Some of these moves are optional, but doing or not doing them will have an impact on the cap in some way. Maybe we prioritize Lazard over Cobb and Lewis or elect not to trade Clark; who knows. This is what I think the Packers should do heading into 2023.

Another thing I should mention is that this simulation would give the Packers over 102m of cap space in 2024, if the simulation of Gary's cap hit correct. That is a ridiculous amount, and would help us to establish the next Packers contender, and it would be done responsibly, starting from a clean salary cap.

That’s a clever path for the scenario that you sought to lay out. To me it just illustrates (again) that that path is plain nuts, as I know you have reluctantly come to fear. That roster plus rookies isn’t going to contend, probably less so than this year, despite improvement from this year’s rookies and, surely, a better DC. Nevertheless, a very clear illustration of the contortions necessary.

We are crammed in with no headroom. If they start pushing more out it’s just weighing us down more for longer (as the cap rises, so do salaries, historically very quickly in the NFL).

I will say that in some cases I believe we have to part ways to get better. it’s not a question of cap primarily but the need to let what we have come through. Lowry to me is a classic example. He isn’t awful, he’s just neither good nor cheap. We have younger talent, it’s time to see if it can grow to be better and us with it. It won’t with him blocking and thus he represents us settling for less than we ought to at that position.

I understand your point that Amos is essentially mostly being paid for in cap terms whether we keep him or not. To me, I think we’d need to know what’s up with him first though. If it’s Barry then your thought makes sense, but can that be known for sure?

I wouldn’t bring back anyone among the old guys. Except maybe Lewis. None of them are cheap as depth players, none are consistently healthy and none are going to win us a championship as a result. I make some allowance for Lewis because I don’t see a ready replacement out there, but I’d be looking. Bakh us a little different. He is just a victim of cost in a cap vice, availability and existing potential. In this coming year we just can’t justify it. Losing Jones will be lamented by me, but I fear we’ve squeezed the cap too tightly to do much else.

Player Value '23 Cap #
Jenkins 4 years/$64M ($16M AAV) $7.08M
Lazard 3 years/$28.5M($9.5 AAV) $5.28M
Tonyan 3 years/$18.0M ($6M AAV) $4.08M
Lewis 1 year/$1.5M $1.91M
What makes these guys worth it? Replace Wilkins- Draft Peter Skoronski, OT, Replace Lazard- Draft Rashes Rice smu.. Replace Tonyan - Draft - Sam LaPorta TE IOWA Led Big ten .

Players are assets in the teams portfolio. Evaluate each asset based on their risk/reward or return. With older players there comes a time to trade them or cut them loose as they are more likely to contribute less due to injuries versus younger players who offer more upside. Yes older players have experience but good coaching (which the Packers desperately need) can mitigate that factor for the younger players. Besides when older players are injured their experience becomes significantly less relevant.

It's time for the Packers t move on from Rodgers, Cobb. Watkins, Amos, Crosby, Lewis, Amos and Bak. If it's possible I would prefer to retain Jones because he is still a game changer and he would be a valuable player for Love to have in his first year as a starter. I would also keep Clark as our anchor on a young DL. An offense with Jones and Watson as the primary playmakers with Toure and Dillon as the #2s in their respective position groups and a healthy OL should be very effective even with Love in his first season as a starter. Hire an actual NFL DC and the Packers defense could improve next season and keep the Packers in the playoff hunt for real in 2023. By 2024 with additional cap space and another draft class the Packers could return to serious contention again.

I'm not sure how this would work out cap wise but I believe that moving on from Rodgers is the key to enable any major cap savings and the development of our younger players. Plus betting on Rodger again next season does not appear to be a high return probability. There is the higher risk of injury again and the more likely probability of further decline in his physical talents. Take the hits, move on and embrace the next era of Packer football. Thanks, Since '61

The "Rebuild/Reload" edition sounds a lot more fun than wading through these conundrums....

Questionable coaching and not giving younger players enough snaps are making these decisions much more difficult to forecast. A couple of veterans may retire or choose to play elsewhere, anyway.

I think the Packers can contend for a playoff spot (but I'm not willing to go any further) next season with at least one obvious coaching change, bounce backs from younger veterans, and like you said, a couple of solid draft picks who are ready to contribute almost immediately. Also agree on a subsequent comment about Lazard: he's a valuable player in this offense and needs to be retained.

Thanks TGR for the article and aditional explanation.

Only conclusion I can get from the article and discussion is that Packers are completely screwed and the only true exit from the situation is to trade ACR, which will never happened - all those statements from MLF and Brian Gutekunst how they want ACR to come back for 2023 is maybe just fog to cover trade, but we all forget 2 important things. There is no no trade clause in the contract, but ACR can screw the trade by announcing retirement. After trade fails, he can come back and say that he change the mind and want to play another season (remember? Bret Favre game).

To remind all who put hope in ACR statements, how those statements are easily changeable:
- I will never again play for Packers
- I have no intention to play for team in rebuild
- I want to finish my career in Green Bay
- I was surprised with Davante decision to leave, when I was signing this new contract, I thought he will stay (he sign his contract 2 to 3 days after Davante refused last Packers offer)
- "Are you vaccinated?" "Yeah, I'm immunized!"

So what we can expect from ACR?

Nobody knows.

I'm all for new era in Packers history. And I have one message for Mark Murphy, if he would ever read Cheesehead tv (and he should): IT IS NOT WHAT YOU ACHIEVED, IT IS WHAT YOU LEFT WHEN YOU DONE!

I disagree with your premise that they will contend by signing the same old JAGs who are not contending this year. Even this incredibly incompetent FO wouldn’t be that deluded, would they?

GB’s problem is that they are loaded with overpaid underperformers. Players that are paid like Top 5 or Top 10 guys but barely break the Top 25 or 30 in performance. Time to cut bait with those guys, not re-sign them. Then, either replace them them with players who perform or bargain bin scrubs who are cheap.

Great article TGR - thank you for your hard work.

If I understood your article and the comments, the Packers are going to be held hostage by Rodgers in 2023 and his choices will drive most of the personnel decisions by the Packer FO. (1) If Rodgers decides to play for the Packers, the Packers will have to lose some players from an already questionable roster to accommodate his contract and almost by definition not be a contender; (2) if he agrees to a trade (presumably to a contender since he doesn't want to be part of a rebuild), the trade will have to be after the start of the new year when the Packers will have already had to cut/trade several players to get under the new year cap; or (3) he retires after the start of the new year and the Packers will still have had to cut/trade several players to get under the new year cap; or (4) he retires prior to the start of the new year and gives the Packers considerable flexibility with the 2023 roster.

If I had to guess, I think it will be option #2 since he doesn't want to play for a rebuilding team and that is precisely what the Packers will be in 2023. And I think there is no chance of #4 happening since Rodgers will take time to make his decision and will not forego his big 2023 payout. And that means Love will have an even weaker roster for his first year as a starter in Green Bay.

You were spot on with your recommendation that they should have traded him to Denver last year TGR. What a terrible decision by Murphy to cede management control to a player.

When they gave in to Rodgers with that contract, it put into motion the rebuild that many refuse to see inevitably happening. Cut, trade any player you can to get the salary cap in a healthy place to look at 2024 regardless who the QB is because whomever it is will be playing with little.

I see no reason to attempt a reconfiguration for this coming season to retain what has already lost multiple times already when their best has provided failure in the postseason, and their regular season win totals meaningless.

Even if they can get the salary cap fixed, and all is looking glorious again, they still have the main nemesis to deal with, and it isn't Rodgers. Bad coaching, led by an overrated HC negates all in the end. And that has been the main bane since the last SB victory.

Is it players or coaches? At this point, it doesn't matter the selection. Get rid of the coaches and as many players possible, and start the search for new coaching and players for 2024. The time and effort to fix all that is broken for 2023 is a waste of time. Forget next season, as it's already a lost one, move on to a greener pasture.

Wow good work! that was like math class, now I need a nap 😴

While the work by Reynaldo is outstanding, so much is riding on Aaron Rodgers. There's not a doubt in my mind that Rodgers would become a lead commentator/studio presence if he chooses to retire and pursue TV broadcasting. He is tailor-made for that. That is very lucrative for the right person.

I just watched the Lions take down the Vikings. I really don't know how the current Packers team can compete against either one of those franchises next year. At some point the Packers are going to have to rebuild as painful as that is and it might well be best sooner than later.

Looking forward to rebuild/reload. This team is not a contender in 24. Might struggle to take second or third inNFC North.

2023 depends on Rodgers. Best case scenario, 2022 was a fluke due to the WR shakeup at the beginning of the year and then Rodgers breaking his thumb. Lost 4 one score games and 2 ten point games. I don't see that as being as far off from competing as other comments on here.

They're not trading Aaron Rodgers unless he asks them for it which seems unlikely. He seems to want to retire a Packer despite some of the fanbase who don't seem to want that.

Gutekunst needs to get some real immediate impact from his draft class though. Now seems to be a really good time to go get another WR or a TE to take some pressure off Christian Watson and put better skill players on the field. Can't be wasting a lot more draft capital on defense. Going to need Quay and Wyatt to take some massive steps forward too.

If Rodgers thumb was as big of an issue as it seems, you could be alright in 2023 even with returning the majority of the roster. Even with the broken thumb you could easily be 8-5 now if you just beat the Giants, Commanders and Lions. Despite the injuries, 13 points decided 3 games.

James (TGR) - You are a beast! Under-appreciated asset of CHTV... We're not worthy!

I will not profess to know what this organization should do. We all have hind-sight and see the many mistakes this management team have made to produce the pile of dung we'll have to sort though before we even play a game in '23...

Common sense tells me:

No matter who plays QB we have to have an OL that will give whoever our QB a chance to make plays.

No matter who our DC is, we have to be able to stop the run and control the LOS when we're on defense.

No matter what, we have to have a pass rush...

I don't trust the FO to fix the problems they've created for us, but I also don't see the FO personnel going anywhere.

Personally, I'm going to worry about things I can control and the Green Bay Packers will eventually sort themselves out!

Go Pack Go!

Great Job James!