Will Packers GM Brian Gutekunst Trade Up, Trade Down or Hold at 25 in the 2024 NFL Draft?
By GilMartin
Packers GM Brian Gutekunst has served as the team’s GM since the 2018 season. In the six drafts he has conducted so far for the franchise, Gutekunst has rarely been one to stand still. Depending on the situation, Gute has decided to trade up or trade back, sometimes doing both in the very same draft. But what will his strategy be in 2024?
In the past, Gutekunst has been unpredictable. In 2018, he traded back initially and then traded up to select Jaire Alexander with the 18th overall pick. Those deals netted the Packers an additional first round pick in 2019.
That year, the Packers selected Rashan Gary with the 12th overall selection. Then he traded up to grab the 21st pick and selected safety Darnell Savage.
In 2020, Gutekunst surprised everybody by trading up to the 26th pick and selecting quarterback Jordan Love. The Packers already had future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers so there was no immediate need at the position, but Gutekunst felt Love was too good to pass up.
The original plan was to choose a wide receiver in the first round. But the receivers the Packers coveted were all off the board by the time the Packers picked so they went with Love. After sitting behind Rodgers for three seasons, Love took over as the starter in 2023. In the second half of the season, Love was playing at a very high level and appeared to be one of the best signal callers in the league.
In 2021, Gutekunst surprised everybody again by selecting in his original draft spot. With the 29th overall pick, the Packers drafted cornerback Eric Stokes. Stokes shined as a rookie before struggling in year two. He has missed most of the last year and a half due to an assortment of injuries.
In 2022, the Packers added extra picks in the first and second rounds in the Davante Adams deal. Then, he traded up to grab the first pick in Round 2 to add wideout Christian Watson.
Last year, Gutekunst ended up moving up two spots in the first round as part of the Aaron Rodgers trade with the New York Jets. The Packers chose Lukas Van Ness with that pick, two picks before the Jets selected Will McDonald in Green Bay’s original spot.
This year, the Packers find themselves in a different position than a year ago. They have a young team that surprised a lot of people by making the playoffs a year ago. They now have a window to do something special while many of these young players are still on their entry-level contracts and the team can afford to keep them all on the roster.
The team expects to be one of the contending teams in the NFC this year, but it will take a successful draft to address some areas on the roster.
The Packers biggest needs right now include safety, linebacker, cornerback, interior offensive line, and depth at offensive tackle.
Gutekunst also has 11 draft picks to work with, including five selections in the top 100. That includes two second round picks and two more in the third round.
With a team so close to being elite, it most likely makes the most sense for Gutekunst to either stand pat, or trade one or two of those extra picks to move up and grab a player he truly believes can be a difference maker. To land a shutdown corner or an elite tackle in the first round could have a big impact on the team by the end of the season.
At other positions, there is a drop off in talent after a select few players. The safety and linebacker classes are not considered elite, but if the Pack needs a young player who could start or even make a significant contribution as a rookie, Gutekunst may have to trade up in the second or third rounds to grab one of those players before they come off the board.
It will be interesting to see what approach Gutekunst uses this year, especially on the first two days of the draft. The one thing about Gute is you never know what he’s going to do until it happens. This should be an exciting and critical draft for the Green Bay Packers.
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Comments (83)
Cheezehead72
April 04, 2024 at 12:10 pm
I am sticking with trading down in the first and trading up one or two times later.
dblbogey
April 04, 2024 at 02:53 pm
I haven't got a clue what he'll do. If a Graham Barton or other OL they really like is available at 25, I'd be fine with that, despite my man crush on Iowa's Cooper DeJean.
MainePackFan
April 04, 2024 at 06:49 pm
I f there is a way to leave this draft with Cooper DeJean, I'm good.
cdoemel
April 04, 2024 at 10:15 pm
I’ve done gobs of mock draft simulations. There are so many ways this could go with the first 91. But anyway it goes the Packers can come away better staying where they are. Haha. OR it could be just as strong for them if they traded back from 25 a few pics. Like maybe 27-28 and pick up a third round. Then use 6th/7th round picks to move up in the mid rounds. I have no idea. It’ll all depend on what’s staring them in the face at pick 25.
T7Steve
April 04, 2024 at 12:16 pm
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. There's more than just this season at stake.
My best bet is he'll trade up and take a QB to screw up everyone else's draft boards. Good a guess as any for me with a 100% miss rate still running.
MilwPackFan
April 04, 2024 at 12:43 pm
If we were one left tackle away from winning the super bowl, yes, trade as many picks as it takes to get the best left tackle. But we have too many seats to fill. Trade away a few 7th rounders later in draft, fine, but we need every early pick we can get to throw as many darts as possible.
ImaPayne
April 04, 2024 at 07:53 pm
Ya we can talk up rounds 2 through whatever but three of our nemesis are acquiring stars, not bodies, in the early first round.
A decent player in the third can't make up for a star in the first: Jefferson, Addison, Williams, Maye, Hutchinson.
The 25th to 32 ND picks might as well be round two talent. The stars are gone by then. Snafu
cdoemel
April 04, 2024 at 10:23 pm
Pshhh. How often are there really stars in the first round? No doubt it happens. But it’s just as likely that it won’t. Gotta have faith in the Packers scouts and that Gutekunst knows who is who and what’s what. That’s really the bottom line. Either you do or you don’t. I do.
splitpea1
April 04, 2024 at 12:44 pm
It depends what happens before #25. I wouldn't be shocked by anything Gute did in the first round save for taking a QB or RB. And that would include selecting Chop Robinson; even though it's not a position of great need, we know how much Gute loves young athletic edge rushers. But okay, it would still be a bit of a surprise.
The biggest question for me is how antsy is Gute going to be at filling the ILB position. We need help here, but I certainly don't want to see him trade up or even use that first pick here because there will be much better value at CB and OL. So if he can manage to hold on until at least #41 without trading up from that one either, it would be a big sigh of relief.
And then there's safety, where much of the same could be said depending whether you want to classify DeJean as a CB. There should be some good options available for us here in the third round.
Oppy
April 04, 2024 at 02:13 pm
"It depends what happens before #25."
You have no idea how many writers and draftniks hate you for stating the truth of the situation.
The entire draft is a dynamic system. Only the #1 pick in the draft is truly a static decision made in a vacuum independent of all else.. and even then, all it takes is for another team to pick up a phone and make a crazy enough trade offer to throw that into complete disarray.
Tundraboy
April 04, 2024 at 05:47 pm
So true. As soon as the first one jumps off, the lemmings can follow.
CoachJV
April 04, 2024 at 12:46 pm
I predict a Trade for sure, but neither up nor down... I have a gut feeling there will be a trade for a player on another team. Hopefully a stud LB.
T7Steve
April 04, 2024 at 12:49 pm
Who do you have in mind?
CoachJV
April 04, 2024 at 12:59 pm
I would have said Greenlaw before he blew his Achilles... But I think maybe Roquan Smith. He's got a lot of tread but he's still only 26 years old. The Ravens might be willing to part with him for a 1st+
Oppy
April 04, 2024 at 02:14 pm
That's the type of action that probably would have already transpired, don't you think?
Starrbrite
April 04, 2024 at 01:01 pm
It’s good strategy to be unpredictable—I applaud it.
I prefer to remain where we are, but if Gutey moves up/down, I’m confident he’ll make a good move.
Go Packers!!!
Tundraboy
April 07, 2024 at 10:25 pm
I agree. And I have no doubt he has a plan. The agonizing wait is almost over. I've had my fill of what ifs, and armed with THE draft guide, and everyone here at CHTV's passion, loyalty and diverse viewpoints more than ready for the real work at hand. GPG. Just basking in all the excitement! Love Spring! Especially this year.
Enjoy everyone..
Starrbrite
April 08, 2024 at 02:18 pm
Me too Tundra
golfpacker1
April 04, 2024 at 01:16 pm
11 picks seems like a lot, too many for some people. Gute should try to accomplish what he did last year, somehow acquire 2 more picks in the 4th or 5th rounds. He could accomplish this by doing the same as last year with 2 small moves back in the 2nd round. Or he could move back from #25 where he could get us an extra Day 2 & Day 3 pick. A small move back to the early 4th from #91 would also do it.
There will be a lot of good talent still available in rounds 4 & 5 where we have 2 picks @ the end of each round. And with big gaps between them. The 6th and 7th rounders don't get you much trying to trade up. They are filler mainly. I would use 2 of them to trade for players already on rosters that haven't made the jump to starter yet. Players we had high on our boards the last couple of years but got selected earlier than we thought they would.
A recent article addressed this and suggested some LBs on other teams we could trade for that so far are not starters. Chad Muma-Jaguars was one mentioned. The Jags are rich in LB talent. They selected Muma in the 3rd round in 2022. He was a TOP 5 LB that year, but he is buried on their depth chart. Nakobe Dean, Miami, was another mentioned. He was a TOP 3 LB in that class. Both have talent and it's being wasted. If a 6th or 7th rounder would get it done, why not?
As the narrators said, Gute will probably use all the picks and then some. He should. Take as many swings as possible, bring them to camp and let the best man win. Trade whoever doesn't make the team for more later picks in 2025. Comp picks will be down next year after the McKinney & Jacobs signing.
Leatherhead
April 04, 2024 at 01:21 pm
5 or 6 of those picks will make the 53, but some of the later ones are headed to the PS.
Yes, Gute will trade up, trade down,or stand pat.
Oppy
April 04, 2024 at 02:16 pm
Well, some of the later ones are headed to the waiver wire.. and THEN hopefully to the PS.
;)
Leatherhead
April 04, 2024 at 03:16 pm
Yeah, there's a procedure. It's not automatic, but pretty close to it usually.
Getting a guy like Walker and letting him develop for a year makes a big difference. You're just going to be a lot better prepared after you've gone around the block once, and you'll probably be stronger and smarter, too.
We keep 16 on the PS, and most of them don't matter much, but if two of them become players for us by the next year, we start the next year's draft with two in the bank already.
LLCHESTY
April 04, 2024 at 03:53 pm
"5 or 6 of those picks will make the 53, but some of the later ones are headed to the PS."
That isn't historically accurate for Gutey, or for TT before him. Usually only one or two don't make the roster and there's still plenty of holes.
Leatherhead
April 04, 2024 at 03:57 pm
So, historically, you're not particularly good at reading comprehension.
Are you saying that 5 or 6 won't make the 53? Because I said they would.
I also said some of the later ones would be headed for the PS. Is that your disagreement?
You are saying the same thing I am. You would nitpick that it'll be more than 5 or 6, and that's fine with me. I'm just saying 5 or 6 will be on the 53. And a couple of the later ones will be on the PS.
But go ahead and continue to argue with yourself. I wish you'd leave me out of it.
LLCHESTY
April 04, 2024 at 05:01 pm
Seems like you're the one with the reading issue. Last year they had 13 picks and 11 made the roster. In 2022 all 11 picks made the roster.
If they use all 11 picks this year more than 5 or 6 will make it. Gutey, and TT before him, do not usually cut picks.
Leatherhead
April 04, 2024 at 06:03 pm
I didn't say more than 5 or 6 wouldn't make it. I said 5 or 6 will. That doesn't mean more won't. I didn't say 'only' 5 or 6. I said 5 or 6 will make the roster, a couple would end up on the PS. Those are both true statements. If 7, 8, or 11 make the roster, it's still a true statement.
I also like the way you look back on a team that's been rebuilding the last two years.....the youngest team in the league.....and then project that nothing will change this year, when our roster is a lot more stable than two years ago.
Bitternotsour
April 04, 2024 at 05:03 pm
I thought the roster churn was closer to 20% not 10%. That would imply 10-12 new bodies, not just 5 or 6.
Leatherhead
April 04, 2024 at 06:15 pm
You can get new bodies from FA or the waiver wire. Or guys who were on the PS last year, like Walker was. It's not just that 12 rookie draft picks have to make the team, which would be difficult when you normally only get 7 picks.
If you use the total of 69,which includes practice squad, 20% would be 14 guys. IF you're talking about the 45 game day guys, 20% would be 9. I'm not seeing 9 rookie draft picks on the 45. Help me out with this math......
I figure no new WRs, TEs, or QBs are going to get drafted onto the 45. One new RB,maybe.. Three offensive linemen. So that's 4 on offense.
On defense, we'll add a LB to replace Campbell, and Savage has been replaced in FA. We might draft a safety and a corner. So that's a churn of 7 on the 45, which is just under the 20% rate.
So I'm standing on what I said.
I guess I should have put in the disclaimer "at least", . You know,like when the police officer asks you how many you've had, you can say "two beers" or you can say "at least two beers". Both statements could be true.
Bitternotsour
April 04, 2024 at 05:08 pm
I'm not trying to get in the middle here, but you're being a little prickly. I can't remember if this is the person you have traditional friction with, but your comment was a little on the personal attack side of the ledger. Better to mock than to deride in my book...
LLCHESTY
April 04, 2024 at 05:35 pm
He doesn't like being shown he's wrong. In this case spending 5 minutes looking at past drafts and rosters would have shown him his statement would be in error.
The Packers usually keep more players from the draft than most teams. It makes me wonder how quick they realize the picks they made might not have been the best choices. The develop part of draft and develop took a hit under the latter TT years and weren't great under Gutey's early watch but seem to have rebounded and even accelerated the last couple seasons. I bet it makes coming to work a bit easier when the rookies show promise early.
Bitternotsour
April 04, 2024 at 05:47 pm
He's not demonstrably wrong, but historically you're correct, the Packers tend to like to keep their draft picks and believe in their research.
As I understand Leatherheads reading of the roster, he sees 45 - 46 secure positions and people who won't be supplanted.
You are correct though that the roster churn is usually closer to 10 or so players a year.
Leatherhead
April 04, 2024 at 06:22 pm
Historically, as in the last couple years?
IF you're rebuilding, and you have the youngest team in the league, it makes sense that most of your draft picks are making the team.
But we're not rebuilding anymore. We have guys at quite a few positions. We used FA to fill a couple of holes.
When you're taken in the 6th or 7th round by a good team, your best hope is making the practice squad.
LLCHESTY
April 04, 2024 at 06:54 pm
In 2011 the Packers drafted 10 players after winning the SB. They cut 1, traded 1 on cutdown day and placed one on IR.
Just admit your 5 to 6 estimate was wrong.
Leatherhead
April 04, 2024 at 06:18 pm
I'm not wrong. I said 5 or 6 will make the 53, and that's true. AT LEAST 5 or 6 will make the roster, and a couple will probably end up on the PS.
You like to show your wit by picking nits. Be happy with that.
Bitternotsour
April 04, 2024 at 06:57 pm
a stalemate has been reached. we can revisit after the 53 man roster is set.
Coldworld
April 05, 2024 at 07:45 am
For the 3 seasons 2020 - 2022, the average Packer player retention rate was 69.81%. On a 53 man roster, that means we returned 37 players from the prior year in each of those years on average. That means we added 16 new players each year.
Allowing for competition not a simple shoe-in, and the fact that some draft picks will go to the PS and accepting that SFAs, FAs and UDFAs end up on the team and that injuries force some turnover, the fact remains that we can accommodate a double digit draft easily.
Last year we drafted 13. One was released and another went to the PS, but both positions saw UDFAs added to the roster. If we don’t draft we will still sign the same number of bodies as UDFAs or SFAs. The only question is the source, not the scale of intake.
LLCHESTY
April 04, 2024 at 07:25 pm
Nice backtrack but everyone knows what you meant.
Alberta_Packer
April 04, 2024 at 01:26 pm
It's entirely conditional and based on how the draft board falls - whether Gutekunst trades up, down or holds. I think that Gutekunst has a list of preferred player(s) - he wants to take at 25 - or slightly above. If so, then he will either trade-up or hold. If those player(s) are gone - then he will trade down. My guess - it's a 50% probability that he will trade out of 25.
WD
April 04, 2024 at 01:43 pm
The great prospects will be in the first two rounds. I would trade our first round pick for a two and a three rounder, Then trade two 3 round picks for another another second rounder to get a total of 4 picks in the second round and one in the third. OR, take the best deal we can make to get the four in the second round. That way our draft will revolve around where the creme of the crop is: The second round. All our needs can be addressed there with great prospects at every position. And we will still have one pick in the third round as well. If need be sweeten the deal with later round picks 5-7. For 25 take the best offer available. Remember the goal is 4 picks in the second round.
mnbadger
April 04, 2024 at 02:57 pm
Remember, the goal is to add as many talented, young, coachable players to the roster.
Add depth and immediate contributors so we have a legitimate shot at winning the next super bowl and more in the years to come.
GPG!
golfpacker1
April 05, 2024 at 08:50 am
WD, I am all for having 4 second round picks, but It cost us 2 second round picks to move up in the second round to draft Watson 3 years ago. I don't see where 2 late 3rd round picks will buy us another 2nd round pick.
The only move that gains another 2nd is a trade back from #25, which won't hurt us in drafting a really good IOL.
LambeauPlain
April 04, 2024 at 02:39 pm
Great/solid prospects can be found at every round of the draft. Last year, 3rd round on, netted Kraft, Wooden, Reed, Wicks, Clifford, Valentine, Johnson. (Carlson still gaining acceptance...a maybe)
The year before, Doubs, Tom, Walker, Enagbare, Rhyan (another maybe).
The last two drafts have been solid...quality and quantity and from the third round on both drafts have added around 15 players to the team's roster, many starters.
I like the trend with Team Gutey. He has some good scouts and evaluators.
Just to quibble a bit about calling Gutekuenst the GM. He isn't. He is the General Manager of Player Personnel only.
Oppy
April 04, 2024 at 02:50 pm
Putting Carlson in the maybe category and stating he's "still gaining acceptance" is pretty darn optimistic of you. :)
Great point about Gutekunst. He's been somewhat shafted by Murphy's insistence on inserting himself as the hub of the wheel so to speak.
I am hopeful that the next President/CEO of the Packers is wise enough to look over the organization's history and revert the structure to the Bob Harlan model.. give back full control of football operations to the GM.
Leatherhead
April 04, 2024 at 03:48 pm
Oppy......what if the GM wants to go a direction the HC doesn't like? Or what if the CFO says "we can't afford that contract"? What then?
Your way, the GM is the boss of the HC and CFO, and he can just say "go ahead and resign, then". This way, the HC is in charge of the team, the GM is in charge of the scouting and personnel, and the CFO reports only to the Pres.
And it's working, right? Now, let's say the GM has full control, and he gets hit by lightning or loses his marbles or something and has to be replaced. Now, you'll be putting somebody in charge of the HC and CFO who've been in place for a while already.
I like division of power. I think you make fewer mistakes that way.
Bitternotsour
April 04, 2024 at 04:59 pm
Conversely, what if the GM is actually competent and consults with the people who work for him and makes wise decisions based on the good of the team and the future of the team. Why is the GM, somehow devoid of these powers of understanding that you seem to only place in the office of the CEO/President.
Also, where has this "we can't afford him" logic ever exhibited itself. Murphy broke the cap structure by re-signing Rodgers. Also, who is to say that an executive who is mandated to retire within 18 months might not make decisions with a view toward self-aggrandizement in the short term (not trading Rodgers to Denver) rather than the LONG TERM benefit of the team. Also, Mark Murphy isn't a personnel man and he shouldn't have that final call. EVER.
LLCHESTY
April 04, 2024 at 07:29 pm
The problem will really come when Gutey is ready to step down(or the unthinkable happens) and they want to hire an outside GM. Tough to draw a top notch person without that control. It's why Wolf turned the job down in the '80s.
Oppy
April 04, 2024 at 11:45 pm
The Packers returned to being the class of the NFL when Bob Harlan decided the only football decision the board should be involved in was the hiring of a GM who would then be in charge of all football decisions.
For the better part of 30 years, this way has been a revelation for the Green Bay Packers. For roughly the last 5 years, the system has been changed to the method you're speaking of.. and it was ripping this team slowly apart.
It has only really been the last season that Murphy has seemingly allowed Gutekunst to truly steer the ship again, and it is already showing in a return to a youthful, talented roster that is cap-healthy.
Bitternotsour's post is spot on. You hire a competent GM and you let him run the show with a singular vision that is enabled by group input.. but at the end of the day, the GM is the final word. Good ones will hire the HC and allow him to do his job, and work with that coach to procure talent that works for him. Good GM's trust that their cap manager understands the goals and works within the vision to obtain and retain talent within the parameters agreed upon.
What doesn't work is when the President/CEO places the coach, GM, and Cap/contracts manager all on equal footing. There needs to be a hierarchy. Murphy is a great sports administrator, but I don't think he's a great General Manager, and he shouldn't be.. That's not what he was hired to do.
Bitternotsour
April 05, 2024 at 09:20 am
Exactly that. Murphy has been very good at the business of football. his real estate vision has born fruit and the stadium is a destination. his replacement should be hired to run the business, not the front office.
Murphy has essentially turned himself into the owner of the Green Bay Packers. It's remarkable really. Time for a change back to what worked.
I will say that there is a high likelihood that Russ Ball leaves the team when the power goes back to Gutekunst. That will be fine, we can find another accountant.
Leatherhead
April 04, 2024 at 03:42 pm
Yes, solid prospects throughout the draft. But Reed was a 2nd rounder), and Kraft was also a Day 2 guy. Rhyan, too. Your point is solid....you can get guys on Day 3.
I want to use 2018 as an example to make a point. 3 of the 32 first rounders are out of the league. When you get to the 4th round, 16 of the 32 are already out of the league. The highest AV of that group is 30. 10 guys in the first round had AVs of 30 or more (Alexander, 32).
If you go down to the 6th round, the difference is more pronounced: Because of compensatory picks, there were 45 selections made in the 6th round. Six of the 45 never played a game. Most had AVs of 3 or less. Only 17 of the 45 are still in the league (EQ Brown, among them, career AV 4)
These guys at this point in the draft are guys that you think/hope you can make into a better player in a year. Maybe they have some unique quality that you can develop.
I think the GM has done his job very well in regards to the draft, and I think he's getting better the more he does it.
LambeauPlain
April 04, 2024 at 04:04 pm
That's right (SMH)...Reed was a second rounder and the result of two trade downs that also netted Brooks and Wicks.
Kraft was a 3rd rounder and so was Rhyan...I was referring to 3rd rounders and after...as some have said after the first two rounds the quality greatly falls off. I disagree with that. And Team Gutey has shown this to be the case.
LLCHESTY
April 04, 2024 at 05:18 pm
The Packers are one of the few teams, possibly the only one, that has done better in the 4th round recently than the 3rd. There is a big difference in 2nd contract rates in players picked before 100 and after but some of that is draft bias.
The contracts of Darnell Savage and Geno Stone are perfect examples. Stone just had a better season than Savage ever has but got a smaller contract with less guaranteed than Savage. One was a 1st round pick and one was a 7th.
GregC
April 04, 2024 at 04:18 pm
Reed was a second round pick.
HarryHodag
April 04, 2024 at 02:48 pm
It all depends on who is on the board.
The only reason to trade up is if a stud falls to around 15 or so. But who would that be? A quarterback? No need there. A wide receiver? Possible, but highly unlikely. A great offensive tackle? Why give away draft picks when you can have an almost as good tackle fall to 25? Running back? Why, when there's a gaggle of backs of about the same ability? Cornerback? Not as big of a need as you might think. A guard or center? In the first round? Edge rusher, possible, in fact this might be the most probable reason to trade up. Dallas Turner comes to mind.
The areas of need, safety and linebacker, don't have anyone worthy of trading up to get. At 25 there's a few possibles for the picking for either position. With two picks in round 2 and two in round 3 there are four other chances to land the best players.
So the answer for trading up is highly unlikely pending a potentially great player falling lower than expected.
But the idea of trading down is more intriguing. Picking up a player or a couple of other high-to-mid range prospects is interesting. Depth is an issue for many positions and that would be a good chance to find that.
Oppy
April 04, 2024 at 02:56 pm
Who says you can only trade up for need?
If there's a great football player available and you have a chance to grab a player who you believe is special or transformative, you don't need to have a need to go get him.
Trying to think of a recent example.. ummm... hmmm.. wait, I know: Jordan Love. :)
Packers saw a player they believed could be a boon for the team at a position that they did not have an immediate need for. They traded up and they got him. Everyone, of course, went apeshit crazy about the Packers moving up for a QB when they didn't have a "need". It sure looks like it was a good move now.
HarryHodag
April 04, 2024 at 04:55 pm
The points you make are valid but then again few thought Love was worth trading up for. It turns out the "Packers Way' of schooling QB's has, to date, turned out ok.
There are some eye-popping wide receivers this draft, but there are many really good receivers with the Packers. Want vs. need is always the debate but keep in mind the percentage of draft picks in the first round who make it past their first contract is about 50 percent.
Oppy
April 04, 2024 at 11:53 pm
That's true of all draft picks.
The art of projecting growth is just that- it's an art- and there are no known guarantees. Injuries are another factor that can limit careers. Accuracy by volume is often a preferred method because of these things.
That said, if you draft purely for need, you will often end up with lesser quality players. You need an OL; you draft the best OL available at your pick. But that OL might not be an outstanding OL; he's just the best OL still available. Meanwhile, there could have been an outstanding LB available that ends up being an all-pro for the next decade- but you passed on him to take the mediocre OL that you needed.
It's an age old debate on how to manage your roster via the draft. I'm not a one-or-the-other guy, I feel like you have to be flexible and be ready for all contingencies. Sometimes you take the need, sometimes you take the talent. You hope they intersect, but when they don't, you have to make decisions. I'm glad I don't have to make those calls. Managing NFL rosters is hard.
golfpacker1
April 04, 2024 at 06:08 pm
Jordan Love was not rated as a great player. A good player with intriguing tools and potential would be a more accurate description. Who cares? The Packers saw something, made a very reasonable trade and it looks like we really scored with Love.
It doesn't matter now, but I wonder where Love would have been picked if we hadn't traded for him. The team that drafts the player has so much to do with whether they make it or not. Chuck Long was a really talented QB with my Hawkeyes back in the 80s. He was drafted by the Lions and they ruined him in a few years.
TKWorldWide
April 04, 2024 at 03:27 pm
I’m pretty sure no running backs are going in round one, and I’d be mildly surprised if any are chosen in round two.
But I’ve been wrong before. And guess what? I will be again.
PhantomII
April 04, 2024 at 09:20 pm
Expect 4-RB's taken in RD # 2. I still say 3-OL road graders and a top 4 RB with speed and vision will open the SB conversation for 3-4 years. I would not mind a premium pick for a very good Safety who can play in the Box or deep. That would be icing if the other 4 objectives happen. Get it right Gute.....
TKWorldWide
April 05, 2024 at 08:03 am
Could be. I think when the first RB goes it’ll start a run on them.
But I’ve heard several times that none from this year’s crop warrant a first round pick. (To say nothing of the notion that RB’s are devalued in the modern NFL and should NEVER go in rd 1 regardless of talent. I’ve complained enough about that already in other threads.)
However, there is no doubt in my mind there will be some productive ones. If GB can spend premium picks elsewhere and still get a promising RB later, sign me up.
Bitternotsour
April 04, 2024 at 05:43 pm
I can't decide if I prefer that all 6 first round graded quarterbacks are already picked by 25, or if we sit there with one of them still on the board. Leverage is such a delicious place to be. We don't have any glaring need at 25 (at least on paper) and trading from a position of strength appeals to me.
Cheezehead72
April 04, 2024 at 02:51 pm
Not saying that I am right and Gute is wrong but Gute never does what I think he should do. Predicting what gute is thinking and what he will do is like predicting what my wife is thinking and will do.
I am done with it.
You ask which one?
Both.
Oppy
April 04, 2024 at 02:57 pm
Your comment begs the question:
Is your wife generally right or wrong, though?
Johnblood27
April 05, 2024 at 03:31 am
hey single guy...
The wife is ALWAYS right... if you have any doubts, just ask her...
TKWorldWide
April 04, 2024 at 03:24 pm
If the past has shown us anything, it’s that Brian G is very willing to move up OR down based on how the round is progressing, and how GB’s board is constructed.
This whole thing would be so much easier if he’d just come out and say something along the lines of “we think Player X is the 9th best player overall, and if he falls past #12, we are going to move heaven and earth to go up and get him” OR he might say “the difference in quality in players from 18th to 60th is razor thin, so if we can move back a little and get more choices in that range, we will”
I’d also appreciate if he could tell us RIGHT NOW who this year’s late round booms and early round busts are going to be.
Am I asking for too much?
Johnblood27
April 05, 2024 at 03:32 am
Yes.
TKWorldWide
April 05, 2024 at 08:04 am
Withdrawn.
Johnblood27
April 05, 2024 at 09:47 am
Thank you!
TKWorldWide
April 05, 2024 at 10:32 am
The joke is that in hindsight, we’re all geniuses. Every year there are booms and busts and nobody knows for sure right now which will be which. Oh, sure, we’ve got ideas about players we like and don’t like, but…
pantz_bURp
April 04, 2024 at 03:43 pm
FINALLY, an easy one to answer!
The mad lad Gutester will:
https://youtu.be/9uNLn75BEFA
*Now, back to saving the world after putting on my overalls one leg at a time.
XXXOOO,
The Burp
gsd3
April 04, 2024 at 04:06 pm
As long as my nightmare scenario of trading up for Mims doesn't happen, I'm good. It doesn't help that all of these draft sites are wildly different on player rankings. Examples: Beebe at 46 on one and 126 on another. Wilson at 26 on one, Cooper 25 on another, and Colson at 41 with the other 2 in the 60's.
GregC
April 04, 2024 at 04:23 pm
Yeah, I just saw a mock where the Packers traded up to 18 to get Mims--a 340 pound OT! Then I saw another where they stood pat and took Montez Sweat--a 340 pound DT. I suppose it's not impossible, but those are very much NOT the kinds of players the Packers draft. I've also seen mocks where they take an undersized CB, which is equally unlikely.
golfpacker1
April 04, 2024 at 06:13 pm
That would be very interesting to know gsd3. Which of the rating services is the most accurate in where they place the players. I am not close to being that smart, but I would love to know which ones are the best. NFLDRAFTBUZZ is one I like because they give in depth descriptions and stats, but are they the best?
GregC
April 04, 2024 at 04:30 pm
It's kind of a shame to have all of this draft capital and probably no good reason to trade up in the first round. I'll actually be looking forward to Day 2 of the draft more than Day 1. Day 2 is where the real work will be done. I won't be surprised at all if Gute trades back in the first round, or even trades out of it.
LLCHESTY
April 04, 2024 at 05:42 pm
There are enough holes and lack of depth on the team to use all 11 picks and possibly even add one or two. They lost 3 O linemen and should lose a 4th and they have no starting SS or 3rd LB. The depth at the last two spots isn't great either. That's 7-8 picks right there.
golfpacker1
April 04, 2024 at 06:23 pm
It sure seems like picking in this order always gets great players at our positions of need. I am a big fan of filling the biggest holes first which I know doesn't work for everyone. I am not a big fan of BPA @ any position, especially where we are picking @ #25. I think there will be multiple good players for GB to choose from this year with their first pick.
The first 5 picks line up so well by selecting:
@ #25 or trading back 20 spots gets us a great OL
#41 lines up with all 3 of the best LBs
#58 might have all the best Safeties still there, even Nubin & Kinchen
#88 will still have 4 of the Top 10 CBs-if Stokes is MIA again this is a big need
#91 or moving back 10 spots still gets a great RB, probably 5 of the Top 10
Scoring some extra picks in the 4th and 5th rounds would be huge and very doable again.
ImaPayne
April 04, 2024 at 07:43 pm
My biggest concern here in Minny, the Vikes always knew you have to shore up at QB. It's there draft that scares me because one, I think Drake Maye is the best qb and word has them using both first picks, one they just got to strategically move up, to get Maye at three.
If so, you now have a future super star at the helm and right in our face again for years to come. They aren't taking chances going forward without a top QB
Pack don't need to move there is plenty of talent at 25, talent we need. More concerned with pass d and lack of speed and talent.. gotta fix it or else.
Untylu1968
April 04, 2024 at 09:06 pm
What if Maye goes at #2?
golfpacker1
April 05, 2024 at 09:00 am
The Vikes are rumored to be interested in Michigan's QB, McCarty after trading up with the Cardinals. Washington doesn't want to trade picks, but New England wants to.
LLCHESTY
April 04, 2024 at 09:28 pm
My guess is your biggest concern is they waste three 1sts trading up for a bad QB, Jefferson leaves and it's years before the Vikings are relevant again.
Johnblood27
April 05, 2024 at 03:36 am
Oh please, make it so!
gsd3
April 05, 2024 at 04:03 am
Just for fun.
Tried PFF Mock draft simulator. Traded down. A lot.
#25 to Hou for #42 and #59
#41 to SF for #63, #94, #124, and #135
#42 to NYG for #47 and #107
#47 to LAC for #69, #105, #140, and 2025 4th
#88 to NYJ for #111 and 2025 4th
#111 and #255 to Ind for #117 and 2025 5th
#202 to Carolina for 2025 6th
Results:
#58 - Kris Jenkins DT
#59 - Jaden Hicks - S
#63 - Junior Colson - LB
#69 - Jaylen Wright - RB
#91 - Malachi Corley - WR
#94 - Mason McCormick - G
#105 - Calen Bullock - S
#107 - Beau Limmer - C
#117 - Cooper Beebe - G
#124 - Kamal Hadden - CB
#126 - Christian Jones - T
#135 - Braelon Allen - RB
#140 - Josh Newton - CB
#169 - Tyler Davis - DT
#219 - Trevin Wallace - LB
#245 - Josh Karty - K
Remember - Just for fun. PFF graded at A-
WestWi_Packfan
April 05, 2024 at 09:14 pm
Ok, I'm going to say stand pat at #25, then trade up to the front of the 2nd round and end up with two blue chip players. I'm betting a DB and a OL in those first two picks