Packers Question of the day - Randall Cobb; Overpaid?

After a career-best season in 2014, the expectations going forward were high for Randall Cobb. So high, that the Packers re-signed him to a 4-year, $40 million dollar deal, with $17 million guaranteed.

What followed was a mediocre season for Cobb, in which he was exposed as someone who can't necessarily be effective without a primary target ahead of him. The Packers were without Jordy Nelson in 2015.

He was once deemed as the league's best slot receiver, but has since fallen behind the pack, and the trend has continued in 2016. Is Cobb overpaid?

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Zachary Jacobson is a staff writer/reporter for Cheesehead TV. He's the voice of The Leap on iTunes and can be heard on The Scoop KLGR 1490 AM every Saturday morning. He's also a contributor on the Pack-A-Day Podcast. He can be found on Twitter via @ZachAJacobson or contacted through email at [email protected].

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Comments (40)

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Packer_Pete's picture

December 28, 2016 at 09:15 am

Based on his production, absolutely.

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carusotrap's picture

December 28, 2016 at 09:21 am

The Packers do make more than their share of puzzling personnel decisions. #retireted

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vj_ostrowski's picture

December 28, 2016 at 09:28 am

I don't think it was a mistake to re-sign him, given what our offense looked like at the time. But with the emergence of Ty, signing Jared Cook, and the way our offense now moves just fine without him, it does look like a mistake in hindsight. Geronimo replaced his production in this last game more than equitably.

The team (esp Rodgers) love him though. Do they have the cahones to ask for a restructure? I think it's much more likely they let the issue lie for at least one more year (like how we overpay Peppers).

I don't think TT is cold blooded enough to cut Cobb. I think it's either trade (unlikely due to cost) or we eat the money and hope he comes back to being a hell of a slot guy.

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TommyG's picture

December 29, 2016 at 05:14 am

Cold blooded? Sure he is. Business is business. But the 6.5 mil in dead money that comes from cutting him TT does not tolerate. Cobb is here for one more at least.

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al bundy's picture

December 30, 2016 at 05:01 pm

Geronimo, lit it up in pre season but mental mike ignores that and plays favorites to make ted happy Eliot has a standout pre season and then bench sits. Bull shit

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al bundy's picture

December 31, 2016 at 03:27 pm

Geronimo, lit it up in pre season but mental mike ignores that and plays favorites to make ted happy Eliot has a standout pre season and then bench sits. Bull shit

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al bundy's picture

December 31, 2016 at 03:27 pm

Geronimo, lit it up in pre season but mental mike ignores that and plays favorites to make ted happy Eliot has a standout pre season and then bench sits. Bull shit

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

December 28, 2016 at 09:35 am

He has underperformed his contract, but I foresee him rebounding and playing well. I wish we could use him more on returns, along with a more aggressive plan of moving the chains with him over the middle. When healthy, Cobb is a magician creating space inside.

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MarkinMadison's picture

December 28, 2016 at 09:44 am

I just don't know how you make the argument for Cobb right now. He hasn't been healthy the last two years. And even if he is healthy tomorrow Jordy now looks better in the slot than he does on the outside. So I don't know how he fits in right now.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

December 28, 2016 at 09:45 am

He's injured. Let's judge him when he's healthy.

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chugwater's picture

December 28, 2016 at 10:02 am

Amen.

Cripes, he's only 26 years old. Still has a lot of tread left on the tires.

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RobinsonDavis's picture

December 29, 2016 at 12:34 pm

Thank you both JJ and Chug for some sanity here. When Rodgers was having his issues finding wide receivers open, the receiver that WAS open more often than others, was Cobb. It was very frustrating to watch, Rodgers not get the ball to him. Although I do believe Jordy in the slot causes huge match-up issues, I love Randall's toughness, and do not believe we have overpaid or that he should be traded. He played through a seperated shoulder reducing his ability to reach and extend through much of 2015, when we were terribly short of receivers (think of the impact on CM3's play with his shoulder), punctured a lung (anybody here ever puncture a lung?), and now ankle problems (remember Montgomery last year? I am sure glad we did not give up on him!). All, I know is that when Jordy and Randall were both healthy, the passing game was on-fire. IF Jordy was to be moved to the slot permanently, we can talk then, but I sure hope we have a solution at the wide-out first. P.S. LOVE the play of Allison lately!!

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RocsCave's picture

December 28, 2016 at 10:15 am

The worst thing that happened to Cobb was having to wear pants that he could never keep from falling down...Nelsons.
He took a pounding on and off the field and like Jordy this season, needed time to recoup but the path was not as kind to him as has been for Nelson.
Over paid, perhaps a little but not nearly as obvious as possibly other(s) based on the same critique questions and value.

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Ferrari Driver's picture

December 28, 2016 at 10:32 am

He is a "Blue Chip" addition in the community.

He is a "Blue Chip" in the locker room.

He is a "Good" player on the field who seems to have more than his share of injury problems, but I'm not willing to say "injury prone" just yet.

The Packers are one injury away on the wide receivers corps from truly needing Cobb.

All things considered, I would say Cobb is marginally over paid when you consider the very high salaries of the top wide receivers in the league.

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tobinrote's picture

December 28, 2016 at 01:08 pm

the guy is a class act, who guts it out, even when obviously hurting. is he overpaid? yes, but that is only in hindsight. when he was signed to the contract it looked reasonable. for some reason i do not see why we cannot use him much as the patriots use their slot, though perhaps not in Edelman's class, i bet you put Cobb in Bellicheck's scheme and he just moves the chains.

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NickPerry's picture

December 28, 2016 at 10:41 am

Pretty much everyone of us was pretty happy the day Cobb signed. See the link below for comments.

http://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/report-randall-cobb-gets-four-year-40-milli...

I posted this in a comment the day he was signed. This was what Cobb had done the prior year.

Cobb, 24, finished tied for ninth with 91 receptions, 11th with 1,287 yards and tied for fourth with 12 touchdowns. According to ProFootballFocus.com’s slot-receiving numbers, his 75 receptions from the slot were 11 more than the Eagles’ Jordan Matthews, his 1,067 yards were 232 yards more than Matthews and his 12 touchdowns were almost as many as the next two players combined (Matthews, eight; Kendall Wright, five).
Among all wide receivers with at least 50 catches, Cobb ranked second with 618 yards after the catch (according to STATS) and third with an average of 6.6 YAC (according to PFF). He also ranked third with 12 receptions of 25-plus yards, tied for second with 24 third-down receptions that he turned into first downs, tied for first with 16 receptions in the red zone and first with 10 red-zone touchdowns, according to STATS. He also was a fearless blocker.
One other tidbit, Cobb has the highest Catch % for all WR since 2011, pretty impressive overall.

At the time of the contract it looked like a pretty damn good deal for both sides. The numbers Cobb put up were pretty gaudy so if he didn't match that production obviously he looks overpaid. Injuries have hindered him to say the least but I think THEN, at the time of the signing, it was a decent deal. Other teams would have signed him for the same or more, he wanted to stay in Green Bay. Hindsight is ALWAYS 20/20.
One last thing. With Matthews, Shields and Cobb alone next year they take up over $40 million in Cap Space. That's almost 25% of the Cap. Cobb costs us $6.5 million if cut (Too Much) and at such a young age my guess is he comes back strong, at least he has age on his side. Matthews is scheduled to make $15,200,000, I think that's the biggest Offseason question. Assuming Sam Shields is gone, that's already $3.5 Million in Dead Cap Space. Renegotiate Cobb and Matthews if possible, if not bite the bullet and hope injuries don't get them again.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

December 28, 2016 at 10:48 am

Agreed on all parts except renegotiation. The way the cap is growing, it's not worth it. it's not like Thompson needs the money for free agents. Nick Perry will get some of Peppers money and TJ Lang isn't getting a big raise. All of the other guys can be had for minimal money. TT isn't going after any big names from some other team.

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MarkinMadison's picture

December 28, 2016 at 05:20 pm

No doubt we were all happy back then. And I have no doubt that Cobb will be back next year. But that kind of dodges the question doesn't it? His production the last 15 months has not matched his contract. This really hurt the Packers last year with Jordy out. And the offense doesn't really start humming this year until Jordy started rolling again. All of which is to say Cobb has proven he can't function as anything more than a #2. There is nothing wrong with that, but then his contract is probably a bit high.

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NickPerry's picture

December 29, 2016 at 05:42 am

Absolutely right there Mark, his production hasn't matched the contract and he's at best a #2 it seems. BUT at the time his play warranted the $40 Million and it fits the Packers way, draft and develop. Yes he's overpaid...NOW... But what if he puts up 2014 like numbers in 2017, then we have a great deal.
I'd still love to see a healthy Cobb, Cook, Nelson, and Adams working together.

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Jacob Anderson's picture

December 28, 2016 at 11:05 am

Cutting guys mid-contract is not the MO. They will let him play his contract out.

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Donster's picture

December 28, 2016 at 11:18 am

My question would be "Did his production fall off because of him, or because the team around him wasn't as good?"

I'd see how he plays next year. This season hasn't been a good scope to really examine how good many of the players on the team really are. Last season wasn't a lot better.

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Dzehren's picture

December 28, 2016 at 12:46 pm

Cobb was exploited with Jordy out in 2015 trying to be a # 1 WR. Cobb can't get separation and has issues with press coverage.

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Bearmeat's picture

December 28, 2016 at 12:02 pm

Yes. Cobb is overpaid. Slot WRs should make no more than 8 mil a year in the current salary cap structure. And that's for top production. Cobb needs to take a BIG paycut... or get cut.

Same IMO goes for CM3.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

December 29, 2016 at 03:10 am

Yes, both are overpaid. I made a long post on Cobb below, the gist of which there is nothing that can be done about Cobb.

CM3 is a different matter. That $15.2M cap #, $11.1M cap savings, $4.1M dead money hit gives TT much better contract leverage against CM3, but there is no one like CM3 on the roster, other than what Fackrell projects to be but isn't yet and may or may not ever be. The only players under GB control in 2017 are Fackrell and Elliott (an RFA). Even if TT re-signs Perry and Jones, GB still needs another OLB who can play. If GB tenders Elliott and if so, just right of first refusal ($1.67M), 2nd rounder ($2.55M last yr) probably will be a tip off, along with what they do with Jones and Perry of course.

I hadn't realized that CM3 has only played 428 snaps so far, and quite a few of them hurt and less than full strength. A full season would project to something like 11 sacks, 50 tackles, 2 FF. I don't really see many FAs (say Chandler Jones or Melvin Ingram) who project to provide as much production, and their teams might re-sign them (they won't want to franchise tag either of them, but might for contract extension purposes). The issue for me is whether CM3 will ever be healthy for the bulk of a season? CM3 cap # for 2018 drops to $11.4M with no guaranteed money.

I see a small chance that CM3 could be made to take a pay cut, but I think it is small.

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stockholder's picture

December 28, 2016 at 12:31 pm

No. Cobb is not overpaid. If you didn't see the stats or salaries behind him. All that would matter, is play him. (Compared to Baseball players. What a bargain. )

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swan3001's picture

December 28, 2016 at 12:34 pm

He may have lost a step somewhere but it also could be more a product of the team he's on.. we have a ton of talented receivers and they can't all have consistent 100 yard games. There just isn't enough balls to go around. Especially with Nelson coming back so hot and Ty being so diverse it makes the need for Cobb fade a bit. Even though Ty is more of an RB right now he has really taken away the need for a Cobb type player because he basically is Cobb but better. As long as we keep winning I don't care who catches the balls.

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Dzehren's picture

December 28, 2016 at 12:40 pm

Cobb's youth keeps him around. One thing is for certain- TT can draft WR's- see James Jones, Jennings, Jordy, Adams, Jennings, Ty Montgomery, ETC.

Cobb could be expendable- 9M could be reallocated to other needs on the team, especially if Geronimo keeps develpoing & TT could easily draft & hit on another slot WR. TT's round 2 & 3 picks pan out best.

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croatpackfan's picture

December 28, 2016 at 02:09 pm

OK, one question. Did Randall Cobb played injured whole last season? Do Randall Cobb plays injured this season?
What do you expect from any injured player? It calls injury for reason!

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Chad Lundberg's picture

December 28, 2016 at 02:32 pm

I thought it was well established that Randall Cobb has been dealing with injuries the last 3 years. Why is this even a question??? Cobb is as talented as ever, but a combination of shoulder, lung and ankle injuries would slow anybody down.

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rdent's picture

December 29, 2016 at 08:24 am

They call that "injury prone"

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Since'61's picture

December 28, 2016 at 04:32 pm

Injuries to Cobb have taken their toll the last 2 seasons. When he is healthy he is a very reliable player and has made some big plays for the Packers during his career. Overpaid? Maybe, especially if you judge his salary only by his stats. But if you factor in the example he sets by playing hurt, his experience in big games, what he means to the locker room, and his desire to remain in Green Bay his contract may be right on point. I believe that he is still a valuable weapon in the Packer's arsenal and I expect that he still has plenty of big plays left in him for the Packers. Thanks, Since '61

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EdsLaces's picture

December 28, 2016 at 05:27 pm

Minus the injury issue the absolute only reason he hasn't produced as much is because Davante and Jordy have been absolute fn monsters..

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Bert's picture

December 28, 2016 at 05:54 pm

Cobb is overpayed based on production but given his age and ability to excel in space he has a place on this team or about any other team. I would suggest he gets back to returning punts and becomes more of a role player in the offense. He adds very good depth for sure. Definitely a place for him on the roster but not at his current price tag.

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Allan Murphy's picture

December 28, 2016 at 06:09 pm

So cobb make's the go ahead TD this week are you still cutting him ?????

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Lphill's picture

December 28, 2016 at 07:55 pm

Cobb is a Packer let's judge him when he is healthy . Class A guy , role model , team player , you can't ask for more from a NFL player. Plenty of players around the league are overpaid.

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croatpackfan's picture

December 29, 2016 at 03:25 am

Ah, I remember discussion about Davante Adams last season...

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hilgersjj17's picture

December 29, 2016 at 08:25 am

It's quite simple, either Cobb restructures his contract for next year, or he gets cut. He can't stay healthy. He can't get open without other guys like Nelson to take heat off of him. We drafted Trevor Davis. We're watching Allison rise up to a guy who'll become a Donald Driver type story (my opinion). Nelson also will make 8 figures next year (can't have 2 wide outs making that much money). Offense didn't miss a beat against a 'good' Vikings D without Cobb. Save money for Dix, Perry, Adams, Lang, and others.

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Gforcetrivers's picture

December 29, 2016 at 02:51 pm

If they are not going to target him...he is overpaid.
Same could be said for Jordy...if you never use him, you are overpaying. Right now we have a plethora of targets for AR. You cant throw to all of them 10 times a game...or can you?

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Dzehren's picture

December 30, 2016 at 11:47 pm

Cobb overpaid 10M reallocated Nagler
Writes:

The Packers need to keep an open mind to the possibility that rookie Geronimo Allison should play as much as or even ahead of Cobb when the latter returns from an ankle injury. That could be this weekend.

We don’t have a lot to go on – four catches for 66 yards in Cobb’s stead last Saturday – but Allison is an imposing (6-foot-3) receiver. His size brought an eye-catching dimension to the Packers’ offense that the 5-10 Cobb can’t match. And Rodgers is more than willing to throw to the rookie, which means he must run good routes.

With Allison, Nelson (6-3, 217), Davante Adams (6-1, 215, 39 ½-inch vertical jump) and tight end Jared Cook (6-5, 254) on the field at the same time, Rodgers has a field full of big, physical targets. Defensive backs could have a tough time dealing with all that size. The Minnesota Vikings did last week.

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Dzehren's picture

January 08, 2017 at 10:38 pm

AARON Rodgers must have read this article & had something to say- 3 TD's to COBB in wild card playoff win. OBJ zero TD''s - 4 drops-

AROD said team is better with # 18 playing.
*** Side note- Nelson injury opened up the slot for COBB

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