Solid analysis, Ken. 15 players, mostly starters or key backups, may be gone in two years. A few will be re-signed...but that is a huge amount of talent on expiring deals to manage through.

I expect your take is also Gutey's view. Perhaps a reason why he may trade out of the first round to add to his 11 current picks for additional quality depth with players on rookie contracts.

This is exactly correct, Ken.
My “best case scenario “ is we trade pick 25, possibly to someone who is trading up for a QB, for a first in 2025 plus a second round pick this year. We use the three second round picks on. C, DT, and LB. We use our third round picks on two DBs.
We use our two fourth round picks on RBs.
We use the rest on an OT and best available whatevers.

I don’t like pre-planning positions, so this is a “best case,” but it’s not likely to fall that way—but it could. I’d also consider trading one of our seconds and one of our thirds to get a higher second, because I think the cupboard will be bare of good LB, DT, and C if we wait.

Our greatest “current need” is safety, but we also need a LB and someone to replace K Clark and a Center/Guard.
I’m hoping we pick up a safety or two as free agents.

My ideal outcome would be using our three second round picks on Zach Frazierat 41, and Edgerrin Cooper at 58, and Braden Fiske at 65? (with the trade up costing a #3), then a DB like Bullock or Bullard, or Sainistril, or Hart, etc, at 88 then a RB like Isaiah Davis or Isaac Gurrendo with our third round pick 126.

Ken, good points here. First Gute needs to decide on Jones and Bak before next week. Jones probably won't take much of a reduction. But Gute needs to get a big concession from Bak or dump him. Probably the latter. Maybe for Jones extend him to drop his numbers.

For free agency, I suggest signing Vikings Mattison for RB, Chiefs Tranquilla for LB and a high value safety plus Owens for depth. Then looks like Runyan may come back. Not sure if a free agent CB is needed. This level of free agency would help.

The draft becomes more of future than immediate starter. Except for a safety. But OL, CB, RB, EDGE and whatever is for future development.

It's not just about this year, it's about the 4-year "Love Window". If Jordan Love is going to win a Super Bowl, it'll almost certainly be in that window, because after that, he'll be 30 and that's already beyond the age when most QBs not named Brady have won. Since FA and the salary cap, it's been young QBs winning the Super Bowls.

So these guys we're taking this year are going to be part of that window. Guys who will help Love move the offense. A guy who will line up next to him in the backfield for the next four years. Offensive linemen who can win the LOS. That's what we're looking for,IMO, in this draft. We're well positioned for receivers. We should basically have the pieces for a 30 ppg offense for the next several years, not just this year.

This is a good article but the one thing to consider is that this should be the plan every year.

Since 2020 the average number of franchise tags has been 11 so this year is slightly lower.

Looking to the future is the reason that I have said I would not be surprised if we are not drafting at least one each WR, DL, and even TE. About the only position I believe we will not draft is QB. Yes, I know what Gute said but I really do not see that happening unless there is a QB that drops in our lap and he cannot be passed on.

We need to get at least a ILB and S in FA along with drafting at least one each but maybe two. After all we have 11 picks. With 11 picks Gute can draft looking into the future.

One of the things I've seen with Gute is he often drafts for the season after next or 2025. If that's the case, look for a defensive lineman and offensive lineman being on the radar along with this year's needs of linebacker, running back and safety. Sad to say, but they likely would let Kenny Clark go.

One thing to keep in mind is as of today(3-8) the Packers are actually $4 million over the salary cap, contrary to popular belief. If you factor in the bonus money and the money needed to sign the draft picks they are over the cap. But if they cut David B. as expected and maybe Campbell, they will be under the cap about $20 million. I don't see them resigning many of their FA's with the possible exception of Nixon, if for no other reason than his return ability. Ford is also possible as a backup. But they will need to find a versatile offensive lineman. I think they might let Myers walk next season and move Zack Tom to center which was said to be his best position coming out of college.

Love's contract is key. If they can convince him to keep the first year reasonable they will be able to help find replacements. But if the contract works like Aaron Rodgers last deal, they will be right back into the mess.

Lots of options but by March 15 there should be more clarity.

I think the writer is stretching the truth a bit here. '23 was not Clark's best season. He was good and came on at the end of the season but didn't match his '18 and '21 seasons and probably about equal with '17. His numbers were better simply because their 2nd best DT wasn't Lowry.

Slaton is a JAG and not a great fit for the new system. You need penetrators and he's had 8 pressures in three years. People need to begin to understand you don't have to be huge to be a good run defender. Kris Jenkins is considered the best run defending DT in this class and he's 305 lbs. The 3 tech spot is pretty settled with Wyatt and Brooks, the thing to look for this year is a good run defender that can provide more pass rush upside than Slaton.

Everyone goes but Clark. Tag him.
Fixing the back 7 starts at safety.
Stay to drafting safeties and you won't get
a bust at cb.
Take a OL and you can move Tom.
Give me Jason Briggs late.
Beat the Lions.

I agree with the main premise about planning more than one year ahead. It's common sense but still worth being reminded about. I don't agree with all the mentions of "inflated" salaries, though. It's a market system, and that's what these players are worth, otherwise they wouldn't get paid that much. Also, I wouldn't be so sure that the Mike Evans deal caused more players to get the franchise tag. My understanding was that most or all of the players mentioned were expected to get the franchise tag anyway. Teams often wait till the last minute to make those decisions.

This article once again shows the complexities of being a professional in the NFL. Juggling the current roster, looking to add FA's who will fit with the team's schemes, especially on defense. While doing that, keep an eye on guys who are going to have to be replaced in two years or so, while also making sure there is adequate depth for the inevitable injuries. While doing all that, try to gauge how much the salary cap will go up in the next few years and how that will impact salaries.
Then, in your spare time, get ready for the draft. Make sure you find guys who are football players, who will be upgrades over the guys presently on the team, and make sure you don't overdraft someone, or make a wrong decision that can be brought up years later. And on draft night, be ready to field calls, make calls, and know instinctively when a good deal could turn into a great deal. Stick with your board? What if someone slips lower than expected? Grab him, or let him slide because there must be something wrong with the guy. Or is it a false rumor from a team that covets him, but is drafting later? Smoke and mirrors, mirages and fools gold have to be ignored to find that diamond in the rough.

So if I get this right, if we try to use the 2024 draft to fill our needs @ S, OL, LB, RB, and CB, then we are not drafting for the future? Are all the players we pick in the 2024 draft only playing for ONE YEAR? They are all picked for the future. The PRESENT is pretty freaking important too.

What the hell happened to the extend Kenny Clark's contract talk that has been on every Packers website since the season ended? Did something happen to him today that we think he won't be on the team this year or next?

Kenny's not going anywhere. He has a dead cap hit this year of $25 million. Even if he isn't a Packer in 2025, we still owe him $15 million. They will extend him for another 3 years. Bank it!

It's funny but every new article that comes out pushes this year's draft needs in another direction. It's like watching a big flock of birds flying and turning as a group. It's a great concept to plan and draft for the future, but how about we fill the immediate holes and needs that we have for the 2024 season first.

This years DT group is not strong or deep. Sweat is not the guy to replace Clark eventually. Braden Fiske is probably the best fit in this years draft for that role, and he offers pass rush too. He might be a late first rounder though after he blew up the Senior Bowl and the Combine.

Next years DT group is way better. Let's get Clark's replacement then. My new favorite D-line player for 2025 is Jaheim Oatis-DT-Alabama, 6'5 370lbs and ran a 4.90 40. Think of that guy on our DL. I might even push for a trade up to get him. Other DTs next year that we could pick :

Nazir Stackhouse-DT-Georgia 6'3 325lbs 5.10
Dontae Corleone-DT-Cinn 6'2 320 lbs 5.10
Walter Nolen-DT-Tex A&M 6'4 320lbs 4.95
Jayson Jones-DT-Auburn 6'6 335lbs 5.18
Elijah Simmons-Tenn. 6'2 340lbs 5.10
Keyshawn Silver-DT Kentucky 6'4 330lbs 4.90

2025 will be a much better year to fill a future need @ DT.

Good centers can be found in every draft class, fill it next year.

2025 will also be a strong year for Edge rushers.

Latest mock-fills 6 needs. Missed an early CB, but Kamal Hadden is my sleeper CB

25. Cooper DeJean-S- Iowa
41. Kingsley Suamataia-OT- BYU
58. Junior Colson-LB- Michigan
93. Brandon Coleman-OG- TCU
105. Jaylen Wright-RB- Tennessee#
125. Malik Mustapha-S- Wake Forest
145. Isaac Guerendo-RB- Louisville
164. Garret Greenfield-OT- South Dakota State
168. Brennan Jackson-EDGE- Washington State
181. Myles Cole-EDGE- Texas Tech
219. Jordan Magee-LB- Temple
245. Kamal Hadden-CB- Tennessee
255. Tyler Owens-S- Texas Tech