Packers at Cowboys: Gameday Preview - 2023 Wild Card
The Packers have never lost at AT&T stadium, but the Cowboys are riding a 16-game home win streak. Who will keep their streak alive today?
By BruceIrons
The last time the Packers played the Cowboys was Christian Watson's coming out party.
The Packers trailed 28-14 entering the 4th quarter. Then Watson, who already caught a 58-yard touchdown in the 2nd quarter, scored two more times in the 4th quarter to push the game to overtime, where Mason Crosby hit a field goal to give the Packers their 4th consecutive victory over Dallas, and their 9th win the last 10 matchups between the teams.
Maybe today Christian Watson will break out again.
WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL
Jordan Love has been the focal point of the offense and played like the best quarterback in the game over the second half of the season.
But Aaron Jones has been making headlines, lately, rushing for over 110 yards and gaining at least 5 yards per carry in each of his last 3 games.
This is what the Packers planned for at the beginning of the season: Jordan Love developing with young receivers, while Aaron Jones ran wild.
They'll need that balance to win today.
The Cowboys defense ranks 5th in both points allowed and yards allowed, but they aren't infallible. While they've done done pretty well, they also let the Bills and Seahawks each put up over 30 points in the second half of the season.
Micah Parsons is the star of this defense and he can dominate a game, as evidences by his 14 sacks this year.
While the Packers tackles may be able to keep him from taking over, he also rushes from the inside, which could give the Packers problems.
If there's a way to neutralize Parsons, it's to run at him. While he's an amazing, dynamic athlete, he only weighs 245 pounds. For reference, AJ Dillon weights 247 pounds.
With the way Aaron Jones has been rolling, the Packers should be able to employ this strategy. Running at Parson will slow his pass rush and wear him down, especially if they lead block with someone like Tucker Kraft, who has proven to be a very physical blocker.
With a slowed pass rush, Jordan Love should have more time to get reads through his receivers.
Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has a long-established history of running standard, basic coverage concepts, but he disguises them pre-snap.
This puts a premium on quick reads, which Jordan Love has grown at significantly throughout the year. When the Cowboys have held teams to low point totals, it has almost always come against a quarterback who is slow to get through his progressions.
This will be a real test for Jordan Love. However, he has a lot of receiving talent, especially if Christian Watson is finally able to return from his hamstring injury.
Dallas has a solid group of defensive backs, including DaRon Bland. Bland was voted to the Pro Bowl this year on the strength of his NFL record five interceptions returned for touchdowns this year. However, he's a gambler and is nearly as as likely to give up a big play.
If Matt LaFleur can scheme things right, and Aaron Jones keep the defense honest (or even rip off consistent runs), the Packers passing game could have a big day.
WHEN THE PACKERS ARE ON DEFENSE
The Cowboys are the top scoring offense in the NFL. That's no fluke. There's nothing that threw off the curve, the Dallas offense has just been putting up points all year.
Dak Prescott is getting MVP talk for his phenomenal season. He's the only quarterback in the NFL to throw for more touchdowns than Jordan Love.
And nobody caught more of those touchdowns than CeeDee Lamb, who led the NFL in receptions.
Brandin Cooks and tight end Jake Ferguson are strong supporting pass catchers, but CeeDee Lamb is an elite talent and gets forced the ball consistently.
Meanwhile, Jaire Alexander had a freak injury, rolling his ankle in a jog through, and is questionable to play. Carrington Valentine and Corey Ballentine will, as they for the last couple of months, be called upon to step up.
They will have a hard time holding things down.
Teams that have limited the Cowboys offense have done so by pressuring Dak Prescott.
However, 3 of the 5 Cowboys starting offensive linemen were voted to 1st or 2nd team All Pro this year, and Prescott is a mobile, athletic quarterback who has made some highlights escaping pressure this year.
In the run game, Tony Pollard put up a workmanlike 1,000 yard season while averaging 4.0 yards per carry. Solid, but unspectacular - this offense moves through the air.
Joe Barry will need to dial up a creative pressure scheme and every player will need to play some inspire
OTHER NOTES
The Cowboys have not lost this season in a game when they didn't turn the ball over.
The Cowboys have lost every game this season when they didn't get a takeaway.
Dez dropped it.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The Cowboys have earned a reputation as a team that beats up on bad teams and can't beat great teams.
The Packers are somewhere in the middle.
Jordan Love has been growing into a star as Aaron Jones has come on hot lately. If Christian Watson plays, this is an offense with the firepower to take over a game.
But the defense and special teams have been inconsistent at best.
The Packers have a real shot here if Jaire Alexander plays and the offensive gameplan works out.
However, even if the offense can keep out (and I expect them to), this looks more and more like a learning experience for the youngest team to make the playoffs since Gerald Ford took office.
Packers 33, Cowboys 37
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Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.
Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.
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Comments (21)
GregC
January 14, 2024 at 06:52 am
Nice breakdown, thanks.
Is it really a "freak injury" when Jaire Alexander gets hurt? Isn't it totally expected at this point? I would like to have him available of course, but I don't know if his presence makes much difference at this point. It's been a lost season for him. Valentine and Ballentine have done surprisingly well as starting CBs.
I don't think Christian Watson will make much difference if he plays either. Love has plenty of guys to throw the ball to.
barutanseijin
January 14, 2024 at 10:44 am
Jaire didn’t have a great game against the Cowboys last year. Watson did. Jaire will probably get smoked by Lamb if they he does play— unlike the pass rush can disrupt Dak.
Savage57
January 14, 2024 at 07:04 am
The Cowboys have finally backed up their claims of greatness on the field this season. As a result, they're well positioned for as deep a playoff run as they've had in a minute. The pressure for them to continue on that path is enormous; Jerry's made sure of that.
The Packers, playing in this tournament for free, have to play loose and take risks. Be assignment sure for sure, but don't allow the brain trash of a missed play or a three and out derail that mindset. A game like this is going to hinge on which team can meet the moment best, and the Packers have nothing to lose, everything to gain.
That said, if it comes down to Carlson having to hit a Crosby-like 50 yarder to seal the win, Vader would find my lack of faith disturbing.
Spock
January 14, 2024 at 07:20 am
So nice to be "TALKING PLAYOFFS" today! Whatever happens I love this Packers team and I've enjoyed this entire roller coaster of a season. GPG!
mrtundra
January 14, 2024 at 07:38 am
I have the Packers upsetting the Cowboys 23-20. That is including a missed FG by Carlson. GO PACK, GO!!!
Packerpasty
January 14, 2024 at 01:43 pm
'Boys only putting up 20...at home? Ill take that but theyll most likely be in the mid 30's at least...
NickPerry
January 14, 2024 at 07:41 am
Aaron Jones NEEDS at least 20 touches in this game. Even if they fall behind the Packers can't afford to forget about Jones. We've all cussed out our TV screens when we see MLF start to ignore Jones in a game. He simply CAN NOT do that today.
Watson said he was about 80 or 85% last week before the Bears game and they held him out. Even if he's only 90% Christian Watson NEEDS to be on the field. Obviously I'd love to see CW have a big game, but even if he's a decoy he could open up a lot of things underneath. A LOT of things for guys like Reed, Wicks, and my boy Bo Melton. It will also open up the middle for Musgrave and Kraft. The NEW Gronk and Hernandez...(Obviously not the off field Hernandez).
Joe Barry and his defense are the concern. I'd like to see Alexander play today. I'd like to see him do the "Gritty" on Lamb today. Hopefully he's a go.
Hopefully Gary is actually a factor today. Yes, the Cowboys have several All-Pro O-Linemen, BUT the RT for the Cowboys. Terrence Steel, is one of the worst RT in the NFL this year. He has a 45.9 pass blacking grade from PPF and gives up pressures and sacks. The best way to beat Dallas is to not allow Prescott time in the pocket. If he's back there patting the ball the Packers will be in trouble.
I just mentioned two of the highest paid Packers on the entire team. They BOTH pay defense. They both needs to PLAY defense today for GB to win.
pantz_bURp
January 14, 2024 at 08:13 am
No words of wisdom, no words of ignorance from me on this Glorious morning. No predictions, no strictly followed rituals...
Just enjoying this team, leadership and being proud. Like a proud Pappa basking in the joy of your first born. Of course, confirming it is indeed your child first.
Chili and Billy beer,
Pantz
NFLfan
January 14, 2024 at 08:51 am
@ least put Watson in the line-up. His presence will not go unnoticed by the Defense. MLF can draw up less taxing plays for him.
Since'61
January 14, 2024 at 09:56 am
No matter what the result is today just enjoy the ride. It's been a great wide so far in 2023 especially the 2nd half of the season.
Play aggressive for 60 minutes. Take no prisoners. Go Pack Go! Thanks, Since '61
MainePackFan
January 14, 2024 at 01:58 pm
Most of all, show them that you belong. Go Pack Go!!!!!!
EnemyTerritory
January 14, 2024 at 09:59 am
The cowboys are beatable but I just don’t see the Packers moving on to the city by the bay and the 49er buzzsaw. Cowboys 31 Packers 20.
Since'75
January 14, 2024 at 11:09 am
GET OUT!!
Jk 😏
White92
January 14, 2024 at 10:37 am
Just like last week, I wouldn't be shocked by any outcome today. This team has been so wildly inconsistent that my fear is they are ripe for a bad game.
Say what you will about MacCarthy, but the Packers almost always played their best in big games. Even the NFCCG in Seattle they were huge dogs. I wish I could say the same for MLF teams.
splitpea1
January 14, 2024 at 11:03 am
I've read an article where MLF says he's willing to take risks with the the injured players listed as questionable, as long he feels they are honest about how they feel. I'm all for it. After all, this is the playoffs and we need all the help we can get in order to win.
I do think Watson could make a big difference if he is able to play. If nothing else, it give the Cowboys someone else to worry about besides Jayden Reed on sweeps and in the open downfield.
Since'75
January 14, 2024 at 11:12 am
Well F me Jenny Hale.....
It's Big Boy football!!
"Hopefully Gary is actually a factor today."
Yea, it would be nice if he earned some of that cash.
calabasa
January 14, 2024 at 11:56 am
17 and snowing in Arlington today. Packers win, a la 2010.
WD
January 14, 2024 at 01:12 pm
If the Pack has Jaire, Watson and a good game plan I like their chances. Without; it is a hope, a prayer and a wait till next year. We won't know until game time.
LeotisHarris
January 14, 2024 at 01:40 pm
Winter finally arrived in my neck of the woods. It's been a treat to have this game to look forward to today when the windchill makes being outside unpleasant at best. I hoping our young team can play well in all phases of the game and get a break or two. Dak is fully capable of soiling himself when the stakes are highest, and we've seen the best and worst of MM as a play caller. It would be pretty cool if the Packers can pull this one off and leave a Jerry Built It, We Own It banner at AT&T.
Go Pack!
Bitternotsour
January 14, 2024 at 03:03 pm
Optimistic save for whether the moment is too large for the coach. Will be interesting. Go Pack Go.
Since'75
January 14, 2024 at 03:08 pm
As i've said.....
It's a week to week league.
Any given Sunday
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/fa53ef88-b8fe-4e81-ad08-98a8a6ed8170
****************
Running the ball and shorter passes, eating the clock, might be the ticket here.
*
The other thing that might help is our 2 highly paid elite pass rushers, i don't know, making some plays?
Isn't that what they are paid to do?
Crazy, right?