Maggie’s Pre-Game Six Pack - 2023 Divisional Round

Here we go; the Packers are in the Divisional Round. As one of four teams remaining in the NFC, Green Bay will travel to Santa Clara to take on the No. 1 seed 49ers on Saturday night. Here are six things to keep in mind going into the playoff matchup. 

1. A Friendly Rivalry

There’s a lot of history between the 49ers and Packers. Per the dope sheet, this will be the 10th postseason meeting between the two teams, which is the most between any two teams in NFL playoff history. Interestingly, this is the fifth time the franchises will meet in the Divisional Round, with both teams winning twice. All-time, the Packers are 4-5 in the postseason against San Francisco, including 2-3 on the road. 

Head Coach Matt LaFleur has a 3-3 postseason record thanks to a Wild Card victory over the Cowboys last week. And while he’s 2-1 against his friend Kyle Shanahan in the regular season, he’s 0-2 in the postseason. In his seventh season as San Francisco’s 20th head coach, Shanahan has a 6-3 playoff record with one Super Bowl appearance under his belt. 

Notably, the Packers and 49ers have the top regular season win totals in the NFC since LaFleur became a head coach in 2019, with the Packers winning 56 games and the 49ers winning 54 games, respectively. 

The Packers have a winning record at Levi’s Stadium (3-2), and have won back-to-back regular season contests as the road team in 2020 and 2021, yet they’ve failed to get a win in Santa Clara during the postseason. While the teams are different every season, you’d have to imagine these stats are somewhere on LaFleur’s mind. 

2. Mad Man McCaffrey

There are stars all over the 49ers roster, but it’s possible none shine brighter than Christian McCaffrey. Even with sitting out in Week 18, McCaffrey ended the regular season with 1,459 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. He added another 564 yards as a receiver with seven additional scores, giving him a season total of 2,023 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns. Unsurprisingly, those numbers earned him First-Team All-Pro honors. 

San Francisco’s offense largely goes as McCaffrey goes, as the 49ers are 10-1 this season when he has 75-plus rushing yards in a game. The team leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns this season with 27 and is third in yards, averaging 140.5 rushing yards per game. They’re also fourth in the NFL averaging 4.8 yards per attempt. While plenty of other players have scored rushing touchdowns this season for the 49ers, no one else has eclipsed over 285 rushing yards. McCaffrey is the workhorse and it’s not close. 

The Packers defense has held up better against the run in recent weeks, allowing less than 60 rushing yards to opposing running backs in four straight games. Statistically, though, Green Bay is still near the bottom of the pack (see what I did there?) in attempts and yards, allowing 128.3 yards per game on the ground. 

3. Offensive Gold Mine

We covered McCaffrey’s stardom on this high-powered offense, so let’s look at the rest of the role players in Santa Clara. This 49ers offense ranks third in the NFL in points for, putting up an average of 28.9 points per game. What’s more, San Francisco ranks first in red zone offense scoring a touchdown on 67.2% of tries. 

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before…quarterback Brock Purdy was the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft! And, clearly, he’s become very relevant despite his draft status. He went 308-of-444 for 4,280 yards with 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in the regular season, giving him a quarterback rating of 113.0. 

It helps to have three receiving options that have all gone for over 1,000 scrimmage yards, too. Leading the group is Brandon Aiyuk who hauled in 75 receptions for 1,342 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. He’s averaging a whopping 17.9 yards per reception. Also to account for is All-Pro tight end George Kittle who had 65 catches for 1,020 receiving yards and six scores. Finally, gadget receiver Deebo Samuel rounds out the unit with 892 receiving yards, seven receiving touchdowns, 225 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns, giving him 1,117 scrimmage yards and 12 total scores. That’s a lot of fire power. 

4. Repeat Performance

If you asked the Packers what they need to do to get a win on Saturday night, chances are they’d simply say “do what we did in Dallas, again.” Yeah…scoring 48 points on the road in a playoff game is typically a recipe for success. Let’s look at some key performances from Wild Card Weekend. 

Quarterback Jordan Love gets his flowers here immediately, throwing for 272 yards and three touchdowns in his playoff debut. He would have had a perfect passer rating if not for a rogue incompletion late in the game, but 157.2 will have to do. Love also was sacked zero times last Sunday, so massive credit goes to the offensive line for keeping Micah Parsons at bay and keeping Love’s jersey clean all game. 

On the ground, running back Aaron Jones proved why he’s the pride of El Paso when he rushed for 118 yards and three scores, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. He’s now eclipsed 20 touches and 110 rushing yards in four straight contests. 

In the receiving game, Romeo Doubs had himself a day. One week after suffering a chest injury that sent him to the hospital, Doubs hauled in six catches for 151 yards and a touchdown. Doubs became the third Packers receiver to post a 100-yard game this season (Bo Melton and Jayden Reed are the other two). What makes this offense so dangerous is that any receiver is capable of having a 100-yard receiving day, and Love isn’t afraid to spread the ball around. 

Defensively, the Packers snagged two interceptions off Dak Prescott in the Wild Card matchup, with safety Darnell Savage returning his for a pick-six. Don’t let the stat sheet fool you, either. CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup may have both finished with over 100 receiving yards, but a lot of those yards came after the game was firmly sealed away at 48-16. 

Keisean Nixon had one of his best performances all season, finishing the game with 11 tackles, one sack, and two passes defensed. Quay Walker was also in the mix with 11 tackles, while De’Vondre Campbell, Lukas Van Ness, and Preston Smith all snagged a sack themselves for a total of four sacks on the day. 

Using Pro Football Focus grades, the Packers had the highest-graded quarterback (92.5), receiver (93.3), running back (89.7), offensive tackle (Zach Tom, 84.0), and defensive player (Savage, 92.1) of Wild Card Weekend. 

Dallas may have won the time of possession battle, but it simply didn’t matter. If the Packers are able to capitalize in similar fashion on Saturday with some repeat performances from key players, that would go a long way towards a win in Santa Clara. 

5. Take What They Give You

The Packers are 5-1 this season when their defense forces at least two turnovers. On the flip side of that, the 49ers have turned over the football two-plus times in four games this season and are 1-3 in those contests. What’s more, they have a turnover in every loss this season. 

Green Bay hasn’t gotten too many turnovers this season. They finished the regular season with only seven interceptions, while the 49ers lead the NFL with 22. The Packers finished the regular season with a turnover differential of zero, forcing exactly as many takeaways as they have giveaways. The 49ers finished plus-10. 

Love has done a great job playing mistake-free football down the stretch, and the 49ers will try to force his hand on Saturday. Leading the charge is cornerback Charvarius Ward who earned Second-Team All-Pro honors for his regular season performance, snagging five interceptions with 23 passes defensed and one pick-six. 

In the middle of the defense, linebacker Fred Warner, a First-Team All-Pro, had four picks and four forced fumbles along with 132 total tackles. He ranked first among all linebackers per PFF with an elite grade of 90.1. His running mate on the inside, Dre Greenlaw, also finished the season with over 100 total tackles, though he’s listed on the injury report with an achilles injury and his status for Saturday is unclear. 10 different players have interceptions for the 49ers defense this season, so protecting the football will be paramount on Saturday. 

6. Hold the Edge

Lastly, it’s only appropriate to talk about edge rusher Nick Bosa and how he fares against Green Bay’s tackles. As I mentioned earlier, the Packers offensive line held up remarkably well against Parsons last week who was coming off a career-best 14-sack season. Bosa’s 10.5-sack regular season is a bit more modest compared to his 18.5-sack, All-Pro earning 2022 season, but he still remains a force off the edge. He’s credited with 21 knockdowns and 44 pressures in 2023 with 53 total tackles. Bosa is PFF’s second-best edge rusher with an elite grade of 92.7. 

For the Packers, Zach Tom has played incredibly well at right tackle all season. Per PFF, he’s had 542 pass-blocking snaps and has allowed no sacks. He ranks 13th among all tackles with a grade of 79.6. 

At left tackle, Rasheed Walker has come on strong the latter half of the season and looks like he could potentially be the future at the position. Against Dallas, he had 21 pass-blocking snaps with zero sacks and zero pressures allowed. While Elgton Jenkins remains reliable at the left guard spot, both Walker and Tom actually have the highest grades along the offensive line. 

If the Packers can mitigate Bosa’s impact and give Love time to go through his progressions, we could see another clinical performance from QB1 on Saturday night. 

What I’ll be drinking for the game: 

Since we don’t know how many games we have left this season, I’ll be drinking some Game Day IPAs from Badger State. They’re probably my favorite Green Bay brewery and a must-visit anytime you’re in the area. Game Day is also a little lower ABV for an IPA which is great when you accidentally drink one a quarter out of nervousness. Most importantly, though, the can has a Zubaz design. Here’s hoping this magical playoff run continues! What a fun ride this season has been. Cheers! 

 

 

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Maggie Loney is a writer for Cheesehead TV and podcaster for the Pack-A-Day Podcast and Pack's What She Said. Find her on Twitter at @MaggieJLoney.

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7 points
 

Comments (44)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Johnblood27's picture

January 19, 2024 at 11:16 am

Thanks Maggie, your writing is refreshingly good, you are one of the best writers I read on the interweb and I really like how you lean into the pre-game six pack theme.

I am going to look for the wrinkles that get thrown at the Niners. I do not believe that the Packers coaching staff will go with the 'do the same thing as we did against dallas' gameplan.

The wrinkles will be great tells if the Packers have a chance to win this game. They must play to their strengths, yet get, and keep, the 9ers off balance both offensively and defensively. That can only be done with wrinkles from what they just put together, the 9ers undoubtedly have dissected the dallas tape thoroughly.

Here are a few suspicions for wrinkles...

AJ Dillon early and often as a power cruncher to suck the defense in and pound them a little.

An aggressive screen game involving both receivers and running backs

Some inventive blitz packages on third downs involving Nixon and QWalker.

Very few zone looks, keeping the play in front of them is a recipe for disaster versus this group of offensive YAC weapons, GB better be thinking about defending passes at the point of the catch and firmly tackling with multiple hats.

What else ya got for me?

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JohnnyLogan's picture

January 19, 2024 at 01:40 pm

"AJ Dillon early and often..." Aaron Jones finally being used properly and you want to go back to a timeshare. Please, no. MLF has been forced to use Jones because of Dillon's injury and the result has been what everyone has been saying for the past few years, "Free Aaron Jones!" After four straight weeks of Jones dominating, if MLF goes back to splitting downs, he should be fired for not seeing the obvious.

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Johnblood27's picture

January 19, 2024 at 06:22 pm

I didn't say to abandon Jones, just to throw something different at the 9ers.

Some 2 back sets with 2 TE. Run Dillon some out of these sets, Jones too.

Work the screen game with the backs and TE's. double screen, fake one way and come back the other.

Stuff like that, some change-ups mixed in among the same plays that smoked the girlz.

Are ya feelin me?

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

January 20, 2024 at 03:18 pm

#28 is a GREAT blocker. If takes some of those big hits off 33, he'll be quicker.

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Packerpasty's picture

January 19, 2024 at 06:25 pm

Hell no..."if" Dillon even plays please no early and often...early and often for Jones maybe, the difference between the two is remarkable...

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LeotisHarris's picture

January 19, 2024 at 02:52 pm

Maybe Bisaccia has something in his bag of tricks to steal a possession? I can still see Tom Crabtree running that fake punt for a TD against the Bears. Might be asking too much from this ST group.

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Leatherhead's picture

January 19, 2024 at 03:22 pm

More likely, SF has something to trick the Packers. Because it seems like nearly every time somebody gets tricky with the Packers on those punts, it works. We fall for that over and over.

The Crabtree run was classic. Kind of like the one Seattle threw at us.

You know me Leotis, I hate having to put the bottom of my roster on the field for a play that could swing the game either way. Much better to be cautious and not fall for the fakes, or the onside kicks.

5 points
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Coldworld's picture

January 19, 2024 at 11:38 am

Dallas didn’t win the time of possession until we let them in the second half. We simply have to rule out even the thought of going to prevent—the prime culprit—this week, let alone early infusion of deep depth. It’s not won till it’s won. Worry about the next week later. Get there first.

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splitpea1's picture

January 19, 2024 at 12:36 pm

Not that I think we'll have the opportunity to play prevent in this game anyway, but at least the first 4th quarter Dallas touchdown consumed about 4:30 off the clock. But the second touchdown covered 91 yards in only 1:24, and that is inexcusable. Some of the defensive starters shouldn't have been pulled, and the 2-point conversions by Dallas couldn't have been easier.

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Coldworld's picture

January 19, 2024 at 04:02 pm

It’s one thing to play prevent, it’s another to be good at it. We really aren’t even with our preferred starters. It doesn’t play to our DBs strengths and it allows the opponent more time to throw. We know this from experience. Yet we still do it. Better just not to. Injuries happen playing prevent too, especially if it encourages the opponent to scent a chance and revitalizes them. Just do what we did that worked well enough to get you there.

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splitpea1's picture

January 19, 2024 at 05:39 pm

Agree. On the big completion to Lamb, we had Z. Anderson and Johnson, Jr. back there in coverage. Anderson hadn't played a defensive snap in the regular season.

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Bitternotsour's picture

January 19, 2024 at 12:38 pm

If the Packers are up 41-14 I have no issues going to a prevent D.

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HawkPacker's picture

January 19, 2024 at 12:45 pm

Yes, with under 3 minutes to go.

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Bitternotsour's picture

January 19, 2024 at 12:47 pm

i have no problem if they do it coming out of the tunnel at halftime

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barutanseijin's picture

January 19, 2024 at 06:27 pm

Exactly. Who cares about style points in that situation.

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Leatherhead's picture

January 19, 2024 at 02:40 pm

The Prevent is designed to keep teams from catching up, and whatever you think of it, it does the job. I cannot think of a single game where the Packers went to a prevent and lost the game as a result.

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LambeauPlain's picture

January 19, 2024 at 04:39 pm

Sematics.

Have there been games this season where Barry DID NOT play prevent for most of the game? I cannot think of a single game until Dallas. You are making a moot point, LH.

I can think of 5 games this season where the Offense gave Barry Ball a lead late in the game and the continued use the prevent (the win) D lost it.

It is not that Barry, for 3 straight years in GB, plays prevent (the win) defense on occasion after playing aggressive, pressure D for most of the snaps. To the contrary, prevent (the win) defense is his primal instinct...as a one trick pony DC. He's not creative at all given the talent he has. The players play well at times in spite of the man.

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Swisch's picture

January 19, 2024 at 06:15 pm

What about the Giants game, Leatherhead?
***
Also, consider the game against the lowly Panthers, in which the Packers not only gave up two touchdowns in the final 8 minutes of the fourth quarter, but also almost gave up a tying field goal on a drive that the Panthers started from their own 25-yard-line with no timeouts and (I think) only 19 seconds on the game clock.
We were one second from probably going into overtime; and if we had lost, would not have made the playoffs.
***
All of this comment of mine is meant in the spirt of robust but respectful discussion, and even camaraderie.
However, I will plead that the Barry defense should be removed from Green Bay and the Packers Nation (either by Barry himself, if he is willing and able, or by a successor) if only for the heart health and mental sanity of the average fan (those of us whose nerves aren't as steely as yours, Leatherhead).
I don't mind the Packers playing it somewhat more cautious with a big lead, but to go to the level of passivity that it seems Barry has done repeatedly is asking for an eventual disaster of snatching defeat from victory.
Even when the Packers are way ahead, they can still blitz at times and mix up coverages -- and 99.99 percent of the time avoid the dreaded three-man rush.
The game against the Cowboys could have become a debacle if Musgrave hadn't scrambled to recover an onside kick that seemed to bounce endlessly on the turf.
Let's learn our lessons about playing it too safe before we go through the agony of a devastating loss that will haunt us for decades to come.

3 points
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HawkPacker's picture

January 19, 2024 at 11:46 am

I think another aspect that is very important for us is in game changes. The last game against Dallas, we did not need to do much changing, if at all, as we got on top early and stayed there.

What if we come out and SF starts out well? We need to make the necessary in game changes to stop their momentum so we don't get steam rolled!

Should be a fun game, hopefully.

5 points
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Swisch's picture

January 19, 2024 at 06:21 pm

In such an event of falling way behind, let's hope and pray the coaches stay calm, make any necessary adjustments, and rally the troops to play it through with fight to the very end.
Never give up on a season, or a game, as long as there is an opportunity for a glorious comeback.
Also, the Green Bay Packers don't do quitting.

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Ferrari-Driver's picture

January 19, 2024 at 12:22 pm

There may be a couple of fans here old enough to remember the childhood story about "The Little Engine That could"
This is the jest of the story: In the tale, a long train must be pulled over a high mountain after its locomotive breaks down. Larger locomotives, treated anthropomorphically, are asked to pull the train; for various reasons they refuse. The request is sent to a small engine, who agrees to try. Despite the steep climb and heavy load, the engine slowly succeeds in pulling the train over the mountain while repeating the motto: "I-think-I-can". When it finally succeeded, it went down the other side of the mountain saying "I though I could".

In some ways that describes what our Packers did against the Dallas Cowboys. That was a monumental task when the odds against them were great. We face similar odds tomorrow against the San Francisco 49ers. I feel a little like that little locomotive regarding the Packers...I think we can. Let's hope tomorrow night we will be saying "I thought we could".

5 points
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Cheezehead72's picture

January 19, 2024 at 12:36 pm

I agree and like a train once it gets that momentum going it will be hard to stop.

I hope MLF learned his lesson about not brining in the 2nds too early. Yes I do not expect that to happen because I do not expect a big lead.

Just like the Nash Rambler in the song Beep Beep keep your foot on the gas and pass the Cadillac.

4 points
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Swisch's picture

January 19, 2024 at 06:41 pm

In the Ice Bowl, the Packers were not only suffering from the misery of impending frostbite, but had struggled to an abysmal minus-9 yards on offense for the second half, when it was that they received a punt with less than five minutes on the clock and some 68 yards to go for a touchdown.
A sub named Chuck Mercein, plucked from outside of the NFL during the regular season, had 34 of the yards that led to victory.
The more difficult the challenge, and the greater the hardship, the more thrilling the victory, and the greater its place in history.
Let's hope these Packers don't pass up any opportunities to become legendary by ever giving up to the 49ers this Saturday night.
What Lombardi seemed to ultimately mean about winning is the only thing, is that playing it through with maximum effort to the very end for the win is the only thing.
Then, no regrets.

2 points
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Cheezehead72's picture

January 19, 2024 at 12:31 pm

The Packers will have a hard time stopping this offense and I will say on defense this is one of few games it would be better for the Packers to play mostly zone and mix in man and hybrid defenses. They will need to disguise the zone coverage. This allows the DBs and LBs to watch for the run. and it allows players to run to the ball to help out their budies. They need to use the edge rushers to set the end and defend against anything going outside. They need to play sound football and make sure they do not get out of position.

On offense the OL must hold up. We should use more crossing patterns and screens or passes to the flat. I agree take what they give you even if that means punting the ball. Lots of Jones and Dillon will help. If we are running the ball keep running it until they stop it. Let the big guys do what they enjoy doing.

Play good sound football and have fun. Remember you have nothing to lose so enjoy the game.

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Cheezehead72's picture

January 23, 2024 at 06:00 am

So I got 3 thumbs down with no explanation but I was right the Packers did play mostly zone on defense and they did well.

Next time give a reply when you give a thumbs down

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Bitternotsour's picture

January 19, 2024 at 12:40 pm

This is simple. Jordan Love plays as well as he did last week, the Packers win.

3 points
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Cheezehead72's picture

January 19, 2024 at 01:03 pm

Looks like the Packers will open the game on offense as Shanahan will defer if the 9ers win the toss and MLF thinks its best for his team to receive. I disagree. If the team needs the ball first to get to a fast start they have issues. I would rather have more possessions in the second half. If you defer not only does your defense get more rest but you will either be on offense the same number of series or one more barring any catastrophe.

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NitschkeFromTheGrave's picture

January 19, 2024 at 01:04 pm

Take the SF fans out of it, stand up at halftime and yell, "FREE LOOTING AT TARGET, WALMART AND MACY'S !"

-3 points
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TXCHEESE's picture

January 19, 2024 at 02:26 pm

Lighten up you down voters. It was only a joke! Jeez.

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barutanseijin's picture

January 19, 2024 at 06:35 pm

Where’s the humor? It ‘s best to remain silent when the remark only reveals one own provincialism and ignorance.

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Bitternotsour's picture

January 19, 2024 at 09:14 pm

See, the humor lies in the allusion to the "blacks" doing some looting in SF. Hilarious.

-2 points
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BruceC1960's picture

January 19, 2024 at 02:57 pm

My biggest concern is if we can adapt if they shut down our run game. They are fully aware that Aaron Jones makes us go.

2 points
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Leatherhead's picture

January 19, 2024 at 03:16 pm

We're going to have to play our best game of the year. Anything less than that and our season is going to be over.

Fortunately, we just played our best game of the season...so far...last weekend. We'll need another 0 turnover, multiple TD game to win this. McCaffrey and them are going to get theirs, and we need to get ours. Maybe we won't need 40, or even 35, but we're going to need at least 30. I just don't see this as a 24-21 game.

I also think that this could be a real nail biter, particularly if SF doesn't bring their best game of the season. 33-31? 31-28?

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

January 19, 2024 at 04:09 pm

Get ahead on the 49ers and they have more issues. They are built to keep the ball, get the lead and hold it, not to play from a deficit. Hard to do, but that’s the ideal.

1 points
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exbody's picture

January 19, 2024 at 03:17 pm

I would like to take this opportunity before tomorrow's game vs San Francisco to congratulate Matt LaFluer, GM Brian Gutekunst and these young and talented players on a fantastic season.
It appears that QB Jordan Love will lead this team for years to come and give packer fans tons to cheer about.
As Matt LaFluer referenced, this team has a different vibe and energy that starts on the practice field in the locker room and on game day. I think us packer fans can sense that too.
Just so much to look forward to and it continues tomorrow night.
I'm confident that we're going to get a great effort tomorrow at San Francisco. And it just might end in a trip to Detroit or Tampa next week!!
GO PACK GOOOO!!!!

3 points
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albert999's picture

January 19, 2024 at 04:08 pm

Getting a lot of serious bad press about the packers players saying a bunch of mean things to the cowboys cheerleaders…going viral on tik tok
Don’t need that distraction
I will bet Gutey and lafleur are pissed

1 points
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Johnblood27's picture

January 19, 2024 at 06:18 pm

I had some of those thoughts... It's the boots I think...

Back me up here burpy...

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

January 20, 2024 at 03:31 pm

Boots made for walking would be really good, when SF needs to run ...

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Leatherhead's picture

January 20, 2024 at 01:07 pm

When you beat somebody so badly that their cheerleaders cry, that's a whupping..

1 points
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ricky's picture

January 19, 2024 at 05:21 pm

The perspective is appreciated. The analysis seems solid. But can we play the game already? Because that will answer our questions. Just as with the Cowboys, this team wasn't given a chance. But the '49er's are not an unstoppable force. They are a team that can be beaten, which has already been proven five times this season, though the final game against the Rams was without Purdy or McCaffery. And even then, the Rams only won by one point. Can the Packers beat the 9ers? Sure. And right now, I'm starting to feel the same way I did just before the Cowboys- quietly optimistic. And that, fellow fans, is why they play the game. And why we watch.

4 points
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albert999's picture

January 19, 2024 at 07:22 pm

Why disrespect any woman?

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mnbadger's picture

January 19, 2024 at 06:04 pm

Pack 26 - 4t whiners 23!
GPG!

4 points
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fair_weather's picture

January 20, 2024 at 11:03 am

-I love that you started this off with 'Here we go". A little Dak trolling goes a long way.

-No matter what happens today I think we are all proud of what this team accomplished this year.

-Final thought, and this has been rolling in my head for weeks.
The 49ers may have had our number for the past ten years, but I think they really had 12's number.
Remember he was supposed to be drafted by that team and falling to the packers was disappointing and probably humiliating for him. We all know he loves to play with a chip on his shoulder and I believe he brought all that head noise with him into each game.
What do you think?

1 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

January 20, 2024 at 03:34 pm

There are more than a few times he choked in a big moment. That might be part of it?

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