Is it just me, or has this week in between games seemed like a month? It's just probably because of the back to back brutal losses that the Packers have been reeling from which have brought criticism from every angle and have prematurely started the search to replace Mike McCarthy.  Although this streak of poor play feels different, as Randall Cobb alluded to this week, playing the Miami Dolphins should bring the Packers a more familiar result, a win.  

What makes me so optimistic that the Packers will play good football, let alone win a game? That's simple, Home Field Advantage.  The Packers are 3-0-1 at Lambeau Field and average 27 points per game and allow only 20.5 points against which put them at a +6.5 point margin.  On the road, however, the difference is startling as the Packers are averaging just 21 points per game and are allowing 30.5 points against which puts them at an astounding -9.5 point deficit.  

The old saying in the NFL, is you are who your record says you are, furthermore, your average home-road splits give a pretty accurate indication of how you will play when at home or on the road.  I expect this matchup against the Dolphins to reflect more of how the Packers play at home which is why I think that they will win tomorrow by 7-10 points.  

Key Matchups to Look for:

1. Cameron Wake vs. Brian Bulaga, Byron Bell, and Jason Spriggs

Cameron Wake is still the Dolphins best defensive player and I look for Miami to utilize the same game plan that the Bears did with Khalil Mack which means, expect Brian Bulaga and Byron Bell to be tested early and often.  This week's matchup between Bulaga and Wake will be very similar to opening night against the Bears as Brian Bulaga will not be at 100%, which means that the Packers need to give him help.  

Look for Jamaal Williams and Lance Kendricks in the backfield in certain rushing situations to help protect Aaron Rodgers.  Personally, I would like to see more of Marcedes Lewis because he has shown that he is a versatile and athletic blocker who can open up running lanes and provide extra protection. (But hey, what do I know?)

2. Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. Xavien Howard and Minkah Fitzpatrick 

Aaron Rodgers has lamented on many occasions not targeting Davante Adams as much as he would have liked to and now that teams are double teaming Adams targeting him may continue to be more of a challenge.  If this is the case, and Davante sees Xavien Howard with safety help that may free up Marquez Valdes-Scantling into single high coverage against fellow rookie Minkah Fitzpatrick.  

Despite the notoriety that Fitzpatrick carries out of Nick Saban’s defense at Alabama , he will still be at a disadvantage in one on one situations against MVS because of his speed, length, and height.  I look for MVS to be utilized early on with some go and crossing routes which should open up opportunities for Jimmy Graham and Randall Cobb which could allow favorable matchups later in the game for Davante Adams in single high coverage against Xavien Howard.

3. Aaron Jones vs. The Dolphins Rush Defense

This game is the litmus test for whether Mike McCarthy has a brain or not.  The Dolphins run defense is giving up an average of 136.1 yards per game and 4.6 yards per rushing attempt.  Couple these stats with the fact that Aaron Jones is averaging 6.0 yards per attempt and you have the recipe for a big day running the ball.  Jones receiving 20 carries is not a foregone conclusion with Mike McCarthy calling the plays.  In week 3 against Detroit, in his first game back from suspension, Aaron Jones received just 7 carries against Detroit's 27th ranked defense that allows an average of 5.1 yards per carry.  

Yes, I understand that the score was lopsided early on and the game went sideways very quickly, but that's when the running game can stabilize the game and help put together a long scoring drive that can change the momentum.  With Aaron Rodgers off of his game, this is a golden opportunity to take off some of the pressure by exploiting the Dolphins run defense by pounding the ball down the field which will give him extra time and open up play action to put the game away with some big passing plays.

4. Brock Osweiler vs. The Packers Secondary

Everyone who has ever watched Brock Osweiler knows that he can be reckless with the ball at times.  With that being said, we know that pressure will cause Osweiler to make bad decisions with the ball which will lead to the Packers secondary having at least 3-4 opportunities in the game to score a takeaway.  If the Packers can get 1-2 takeaways on defense this could end up being a two or three score win and finally give the Lambeau faithful something to cheer about.  

5. Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels and Dean Lowry vs. Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake

The outcome of this game on defense will hinge on the Packers ability to exploit their best matchup of the day which is their elite trio of Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels, and Dean Lowry against the Dolphins poor run blocking.  The Dolphins struggle in run blocking and do not have a player with a grade higher than a 62.7.  The matchup that I would look for the Packers to feast on would be Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels, and Dean Lowry against right guard, Jesse Davis, center Travis Swanson, and left guard Ted Larsen who have run blocking grades of 43.4, 59.9, and 40.3 respectively.  Picking apart the center and guards of the Dolphins offensive line will be the key to arriving early in the backfield and stopping Gore and Drake which will make Osweiler one dimensional.    

Predictions:

• Packers defeat the Dolphins by a score of 27-20. 
• Jaire Alexander has an interception
• Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark stifle Frank Gore and Kenyon Drake
• MVS has a 2 touchdown game.
• Aaron Jones rushes for 125 yards
• Clay Matthews has a sack and multiple quarterback hits without a flag. 
• The Packers do not fumble the ball.