Key Battles Week 1 Edition: Seattle at Green Bay
For all the fireworks that come with a season opener, the devil will be in the details for Green Bay. Block and tackle.
By dnicholson
Green Bay’s season starts with arguably the team’s toughest test in bonafide Super Bowl contender and new-age rival Seattle. Nearly all primetime eyes will be on the two teams Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field, where the Packers bested the Seahawks in their past two contests.
Expect a few personal foul calls, some heavy hitting, and at least a few sideline shots of Mike McCarthy making his stink face and the ageless Pete Carroll being overly enthusiastic.
Also, expect the following key battles to play significant roles in the outcome:
Packers’ DB-heavy defense against run-heavy Seattle
Late in Thursday’s NFL opener between defending Super Bowl champion New England and Kansas City, rookie running back Kareem Hunt took over. Credit the blocking up front as well as Alex Smith for taking the pressure off with one of the finest games of his career. But there was also the fact that New England refused to get out of their sub package defense, playing with five or six defensive backs on nearly every snap.
The Patriots’ tactics shouldn’t be considered novel—the majority of the league plays the majority of their snaps with at least five corners and safeties on the field. We live in the age of the passing game.
But with the game deadlocked entering the fourth quarter, the difference in the final fifteen minutes may have been Hunt’s ability to make the Patriots pay for their conservative, rush three-or-four pass defense. Against a light box and smaller defenders—not to mention against a defensive unit that struggled to generate a pass rush—Hunt and the Chiefs blasted the champs.
What does this have to do with Green Bay vs. Seattle? We know the Packers live and die in their sub package defense, and this offseason has featured more than just flirtation with bringing defensive backs closer to the line of scrimmage. The Packers, in fact, appear preemptively committed to the heavy use of their Nitro package, which adds a third safety to the field in place of an inside linebacker. And there are plenty of reasons to feel good about this move. It’s where the league is at this point. A defense must be able to match up against speedy tight ends and running backs.
But suppose for a moment that Seattle, a smashmouth football team lacking only the offensive line to back it up, opts for a smashmouth approach against the Packers expectedly lighter front? The hope here is that Thomas Rawls, C.J. Prosise and big ol’ Eddie Lacy don’t expose the latest NFL trend as shortsighted. The Chiefs certainly exposed New England in the opener. If Green Bay has more control of down and distance, they should be okay. Russell Wilson's legs, as always, are the wildcard--both in extending plays and running for first downs.
Protecting Rodgers against 4-5 man rushes
Fact: Seattle is on the short list of teams with the personnel to pose the closest thing to a script that there is for defending against Rodgers. When Rodgers struggles, it’s almost never against an aggressive, blitzing front. The established model is to play coverage and get to him with four, maybe five, rushers. Blessed with an excellent pass-blocking line in recent seasons, this has led Rodgers to expand upon his backyard football prowess and create a second offense after the initial play breaks down. But against a front four as varied and talented as Seattle, the room for—and time for—improvisation is typically less.
Seattle would have been tough enough with the likes of Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. Add in interior rusher Sheldon Richardson and the likelihood dwindles significantly for Rodgers to create a masterpiece 8 to 10 seconds into a play. Simply put, the Seahawks have an exceptional defense, with impact players at every level, and Rodgers may not have the time he's accustomed to.
The key for Green Bay, much like the above key battle against Seattle’s offense, may well lie in the run game. If the Packers can run the ball and find traditional football ways to take pressure off Rodgers, like play action passes, they’ll be better equipped to hang in a contest that should be close. The other way around this issue is for the Packers receivers to win their routes. Here's looking at you, Martellus Bennett.
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Comments (15)
dobber
September 09, 2017 at 12:38 pm
"But with the game deadlocked entering the fourth quarter, the difference in the final fifteen minutes may have been Hunt’s ability to make the Patriots pay for their conservative, rush three-or-four pass defense. Against a light box and smaller defenders—not to mention against a defensive unit that struggled to generate a pass rush—Hunt and the Chiefs blasted the champs. "
KC has at least a decent OL, though. Seattle? Remains to be seen...
marpag1
September 09, 2017 at 04:54 pm
Besides, the not-so-legendary Alex Smith was in the process of completing 80% of his passes and throwing for 370 yards and four TDs, including TD tosses of 78 and 75 yards. Did we really think that New England was going to take their extra DB off the field in order to protect against the run?
Andrew Lloyd Peth
September 09, 2017 at 12:52 pm
This is a well-written piece making fine points. I would add that Capers must be unpredictable in his usage of this lighter, faster defense.
Bearmeat
September 09, 2017 at 12:58 pm
Hmm... Not sure I agree with that. They only have 2 receiving options that even remotely scare me: Baldwin and Graham. You need a big body on Graham. Maybe Randall on Baldwin out of the slot?
But I suspect Seattle wants to jam the ball down GBs throats. I think our Stout DL against their crap OL is going to blow that plan up. But you can't be in dime or even nickel consistently if you're going to do that.
ejr450
September 09, 2017 at 03:10 pm
I think this is a great week to see some 3-3-5 from Don.
94/97/76 across the line, 53/52/55 at LB, and 31/23/42/29/21 in the backfield. If it's truly a throwing down it'll go back to 52 on the line and 24 coming in, but I think we're well positioned to use the DL as a strength this year, and Sunday especially.
Bearmeat
September 09, 2017 at 03:35 pm
Honestly, I don't expect to be able to run against Seattle at all, and I'm not sure we should even try. I think the best approach would be to spread them out with 41 personnel and treat Ty as a slot WR or throw it to him out of the backfield. Match him and Cobb up on any LB or Kam and watch the fireworks. Depending on the scheme they use on any given play, we use underneath zone flooding or man beating routes. That takes SEA's pass rush out of the equation. And unlike 2011, we do have the seam busting TE and pass catching RBs to paper cut opponents to death if they sit back in a man under Cover 2 or 3. Then, once we've gotten them out of their deep cover zone, take a few shots in man coverage with our superior WRs. Preferably with Jordy out of the slot or over the top with Adams or Davis on their rook CB away from Dick Sherman and light up the scoreboard. This is what MM did against PIT in SB 45, and this offense is better than the 2010 offense. IMO it will be legendarily good. I don't think any defense can stop it.
Caveat: if an OL (any OL) goes down, this plan is screwed...
On the other side of the ball, it's simple: Stop the run and contain Wilson in the pocket. Capers has done this to Seattle many times before. I'm not even sure it'll be all that hard. They suck on offense because their OL blows goats. It may blow less goats than it did in 2016, but it still blows BIG goats. You keep Feastmode, Prosise and Carson from having big games and use our vastly improved secondary to blanket Graham and Baldwin.
Injuries aside, I think the score will be closer than the game actually feels. Good guys win comfortably:
GB 27
SEA 21
EdsLaces
September 09, 2017 at 01:33 pm
Totally agree. Ty should have a decent season if he stays healthy, but this game....yeah he's gonna struggle.
TKWorldWide
September 09, 2017 at 04:33 pm
At least the goats are happy.
Bearmeat
September 09, 2017 at 05:10 pm
EL OH EL!!!!!
Pack88
September 09, 2017 at 01:53 pm
Everyone has covered all my points , I do think GB wins but it will be important to not let that D-line get trucked. I really suspect we will see how much Clark improved- he looked very stout when he played in the preseason and I hope that excellent play continues! This P\S Lowry was almost immovable- that will be a good test for the Seattle interior!
I look for the wild card to be Kendricks on the slants, if he is catching it will place a lot of pressure on that front 7! If Kendricks has the dropsies we could also see a sneaky role for Janis
Cartwright
September 09, 2017 at 02:36 pm
If we can stop the run, and get them one dimensional we got the game. Our offense will not be denied.Ty and the 2 new TE's will be used in ways that will make that defenses head spin.
Rossonero
September 09, 2017 at 04:01 pm
Seahawks offensive line stinks, its just that simple. We've been able to stonewall Marshawn Lynch in the past, and i see no reason why we can't stuff Eddie Lacy behind an even worse line than the one Lynch ran behind.
Also -- Seahawks left tackle Rees Odhiambo is starting his first ever game. We MUST take advantage of that!
lucky953
September 09, 2017 at 08:28 pm
I don't think they are as committed to the nickel as you are. Brooks can anchor against the run quite well. Quinton Dial is a run stuffer. Ryan is pretty stout. Won't be easy to run on GBs defense IMO.
Tundraboy
September 09, 2017 at 10:00 pm
I can not remember the last time I was this excited for a game, season opener or otherwise. I guess 2010/2011.
This is almost a must win given how much toasting Seattle to begin the season will mean. Need to start the season off with a bang and who better than Seattle to start with.
Potentially the most potent and most balanced Offense ever with Rodgers, and potentially a nasty D for a change to go with it.
Go Pack Go.
MarioThePoet
September 10, 2017 at 04:46 am
Everyone in the comments has already said it. Seattle doesn't have an offensive line.
We will see what happens.
READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!