The Packers have seen a lot of change since 2008, they've gone from a 4-3 to 3-4 defense, lost and found a running game, had plenty of great players come and go but the one constant has been the play of Aaron Rodgers.  Rodgers displays the interesting blend of precision when following the play and fluidness when the play breaks down and the Packers have ridden Aaron Rodgers talents all the way to a Super Bowl in 2010 and a playoff berth every year since he became the starter.  In 2015 Rodgers was anything but precise or fluid; while other will point to a decimated offensive line, receivers failing to get open or a streaky running game, in my opinion the Packers offensive decline is predominantly due to a loss of clarity for Rodgers. 

Now what do I mean by a loss of clarity?  Rodgers has always been a quarterback that straddles the thin line of following the play call and “making stuff happen” when the play call fails.  Usually this means he knows what to do when the play goes like planned and he also knows what to do when the play breaks down.  This year however it seemed like Rodgers didn’t know when to follow the script and when to improvise.  At times he was obviously seeing the defense differently than his receivers and other times he broke the pocket for no apparent reason.

While some of that can be attributed to other factors, Rodgers in his 8 years as a starter has been able to overcome them all.  Arguably the 2009 Packers offensive line was worse due to injuries that lead to Allen Barbre being a starter a right tackle.  Receivers failing to get open seems like a hollow argument since Rodgers has always been touted by his ability to “throw a receiver open” and has made receivers like Jarrett Boykin into a playmaker in 2013.  Rodgers being unable to fall back on a running game this year reminds me a lot of the 2012 season where Alex Green was the starting tailback and only managed 464 yards and the Packers dug up Cedric Benson for 5 games. 

No, Rodgers has arguably had it a lot worse in previous years and never has he seemed so lost and unsure of himself as he was in 2015.  Has Rodgers lost confidence in his ability?  I highly doubt it, Rodgers is borderline obnoxious in his cockiness and played good enough in the playoff games, which should allay his fears that his skills are declining.  Was he hurt?  Possibly, but Rodgers has played well even when visibly injured, such as coming back for the season ender against the Bears to get into the playoffs with a recovering collbar bone or when Rodgers could barely move in the playoffs due to a leg injury. 

My theory is that the main culprit for Rodgers’ decline is his friendship with Tom Clements.  While Tom Clements is a fine quarterbacks coach and might be even a decent play caller, I think the biggest problem is likely that Clements and Rodgers let their friendship get in the way of fixing Rodgers’ issue of clarity.  In short Clements might simply be too close to Rodgers to effectively chew him out for his mistakes and force him to clearly define what he’s doing on the field. 

In contrast, the relationship of McCarthy and Rodgers seems more like a close business relationship rather than a true friendship; while Rodgers and McCarthy both recognize each other’s brilliance and know that working together will produce the best results, I don’t get the feeling that they hang out and kick back beers on off days.  With Clements however, you do get the feeling that Rodgers genuinely sees him as a friend.  I don’t ever recall Rodgers ever calling McCarthy his friend but Rodgers has on several occasions called Clements his close friend.  To be honest I don’t think it really matters if McCarthy and Rodgers aren’t friends since they work well enough together either way, but being close friends with Clements may be more detrimental.

Think of it this way: if someone who works for you screws something up, you would tell them.  As their superior, it is expected that you bring it up and work with them to correct the issue.  On the other side of the table, it’s expected that your boss chews you out when you screw up.  However if your friend screws up, you might be a little less harsh or even choose to ignore the problem since you value your friendship more than fixing the mistake.  Clements likely faced the same problem; with Rodgers slowly declining in his decision-making ability as the season progressed, Clements probably didn’t come down as hard as he should have to rein Rodgers back in.  I also felt that Clements let Rodger define his own clarity on the field instead of giving him clarity with his play calling.    

McCarthy on the other hand doesn’t have to care about Rodgers’ friendship and called plays that maximized the team’s production; after McCarthy retook play calling duties from Clements the team became a lot more balanced and the running game stabilized.  McCarthy forced Rodgers to follow the script and even when the play broke down it looked like Rodgers knew what he was supposed to be doing. 

The funny thing is this story has played out before in Green Bay.  When Brett Farve first joined the Green Bay Packers, he was a gifted but undisciplined quarterback who had thrown 4 passes, completed 0 and been picked off twice.  But with Mike Holmgren reining him in, Favre had some of his greatest and most efficient seasons in the NFL.  When Holmgren left to be the head coach/GM of the Seattle Seahawks, Favre used his reputation and previous success to get more freedom from Mike Sherman, who basically let him do what he wanted.  As a result Favre ended up being the “gunslinger” that he’s remembered for. 

During those years, Favre had plenty of incredibly stupid plays sprinkled in with some spectacular plays that he had no business making.  During 2015, Rodgers had plenty of incredibly stupid plays (like getting intercepted in the endzone multiple occasions, a rarity for Rodgers) sprinkled in with some spectacular plays that he had no business making (like the Hail Mary at Detroit or against the Cardinals).  It’s interesting to wonder what Farve would have been like if Holmgren had stayed in Green Bay; it might have looked like Rodgers next year as McCarthy keeps him reined in.