If there is a Year to Trade Down in the Draft, this may be it
Given the Green Bay Packers' positions of need along with the salary cap crunch this offseason, if there was a year to trade down in the NFL Draft, this is it.
By Paul_Bretl
Now, before I dive into this, I'll start by saying that predetermining any sort of move heading into the NFL Draft is going to lead to trouble. I'm not suggesting at this moment that the Green Bay Packers should trade down in Round 1 no matter what. However, given the nature of this offseason, I do strongly believe that it's in play and could be the best option available.
With that said, it's not as if the Packers lack draft capital. They have their original seven draft picks -- one for each round -- and they are also projected to have three additional compensatory picks after losing Blake Martinez, Bryan Bulaga, and Kyler Fackrell to free agency last year.
But this offseason is going to be like one we haven't seen before as most teams scramble to get under the salary cap. As we are all aware, the salary cap in 2021 will decrease from $198.2 million down to around $180 million, as reported by Adam Schefter, due to very few fans in the stands this past season. Meaning, teams are going to have restructure contracts, look into extensions, and of course, cut some underperforming veteran players.
Constructing a roster in 2021 isn't going to be easy given these financial limitations -- although it's never easy -- and in many instances, free agency is going to play a much smaller role in roster building. Now, this isn't' to say the Green Bay Packers won't sign anyone. With the salary cap crunch, the star players are still going to get paid -- not by the Packers -- but the middle class is going to squeezed into cheap, one or two-year deals.
It's within that group of players that the Packers will be able to potentially make an addition or two. GM Brian Gutekunst even alluded to this back in November. With that said, while a veteran free agent signing will help the top end of your roster, they don't fill out your roster. And this is where the draft and potentially trading down comes into play.
Some of the best contracts out there are players on rookie deals; even the cap hits for first, and second-round picks are relatively small compared to many of their veteran counterparts. So in a year where cap space is limited, being able to fill out the roster with some additional draft picks gained from trading down could provide some serious help.
Or perhaps Green Bay does dabble in free agency, using some available cap space -- which at this point doesn't exist -- and then gains additional draft picks by trading back to help fill out the roster, which can then offset some of the additional money spent.
To circle back to what I initially said, of course, teams don't want to have a predetermined move heading into the draft--unless you're Jacksonville. But if we look at the Packers' positions of need, with how this draft class is shaping up, trading down could very well be in play, simply because it's the right move.
Finding a running mate for Jaire Alexander should be at or very close to the top of the to-do list, and with a deep cornerback class the Packers should have the opportunity to address that need early on. However, the same can't be said for the interior defensive line class, which is extremely thin.
Back to some good news, this is also a deep tackle and receiver class. So gaining an additional pick or maybe even two while dropping back five spots still allows Green Bay to land their right tackle of the future or some additional play-making ability at receiver.
And as we've seen on numerous occasions with the running back position, teams don't have to spend premium draft capital in order to find a difference-maker.
It's also worth noting that in a college season with a number of opt-outs, shortened or no seasons at all, and no NFL Combine this offseason, there isn't the same amount of information available as there usually is. And in some instances the film might not be that recent. This is all the more reason the have and extra selection or two in an attempt to increase your odds of landing an effective player.
Naturally, this entire discussion up to this point has been focused on how trading down could help the Green Bay Packers in the present. But having additional rookie contracts on the books in future years has its benefits as well.
I mentioned that we will see contract restructures and extensions this offseason. In short, those moves give teams more flexibility this season by reducing cap hits, but they lose flexibility in the future by spreading those cap hits into the coming years.
So while having some extra rookie contracts on the books isn't the great equalizer in all of this, it does help because they are relatively inexpensive four-year deals--especially if those players are contributors.
We still have a long ways to go between now and draft night, and after how last year's draft went, I imagine that there will be an added emphasis from fans and members of the draft community that the Green Bay Packers get some immediate help at pick 29. However, given their positional needs as well as the unusual cap situation this offseason, don't be surprised if -- or when -- they trade back.
PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.
__________________________
Born and raised in Green Bay, WI and I still call it home. After my family, watching the Packers, sharing my opinions on the team through my writing and interacting with other fans is my greatest passion. You can find me on Twitter at @Paul_Bretl.
NFL Categories:
Comments (53)
Thegreatreynoldo
February 12, 2021 at 11:40 am
Where's dobber? His ideal DE just got cut: JJ Watt.
These should be interesting times in which we live.
dobber
February 12, 2021 at 12:15 pm
I like true, lengthy, rangy 5-techs who <i> can stay healthy <i/>... ;)
Fabio
February 12, 2021 at 12:06 pm
We already have Z and Gary (if we believe it) - I don't think Watt will come
Fabio
February 12, 2021 at 12:08 pm
What if we signed R. Sherman instead ???
Minniman
February 13, 2021 at 02:41 am
You (and some other recent posters here on CHTV) may be onto something there Fabio - Sherman has said that he wants to play for a contender.
Re trading back into the second round - I don't agree that the Packers should stockpile any more picks. Paul, for all the reasons that you give that there might be more 'diamonds in the rough' in the mid-rounds there's an equal argument that this lack of tape makes this year actually the king of all draft 'crap-shoots'.
Pick BPA at each slot. The Packers are going to be pretty much set for a rebuild in the next 3-ish years anyway.
dobber
February 12, 2021 at 12:14 pm
Watt is your Lowry replacement, if they decide to pursue him. Maybe he'll want to play at home badly enough that he'll give a significant discount...he's made a lot of money already, and this gives him a chance to play for a winner in front of his family. Maybe he'll give that home-town discount. That said, he'd have to play on a snap count and the Packers would have to use him wisely to protect him. I don't see all those stars aligning.
Personally, I think he goes to play with TJ and Derek in Pittsburgh.
Thegreatreynoldo
February 13, 2021 at 12:24 pm
Watt played 1,013 snaps last year. Helluva snap count. 85 PFF grade.
Well, I don't see the money working out. Pittsburgh's cap is a mess BTW but maybe he'd play for less to be with his brother.
Stroh
February 12, 2021 at 10:44 pm
Z and Gary are edge rushers who can move inside occasionally. JJ Watt is the epitome of a 34 DL who can rush on the inside or on the edge. Honestly at this point in his career he probably isn't the great edge rusher and is a better fit as a 3 tech DL. Think of Watt as a close approximation of Aaron Donald! Do you anything about football,! SMH...
Packerpasty
February 13, 2021 at 08:55 am
not even close to Donald at the point of his career...come on man...make sense
CheesyTex
February 12, 2021 at 03:04 pm
TGR,
Curious about what could be a possible Houston strategy. Your take, please.
Things are in shambles, about as bad as it gets -- O'Brien debacle, Hopkins trade, internal rumblings, Watson standoff, GM fired, Watt release, etc.
Could it be that they have now adopted a strategy to flush out Watson and any other malcontent? Idea seems bizarre, but could they make an open offer to all players who want out to get the same deal as Watt?
It's clear that they are facing a rebuild, and maybe they have decided this is the time to go all in. Let all the malcontents walk, no matter how painful the loss in terms of player value (lost draft choices from trades, etc.), and as a result have virtually unlimited cap space in a year where there will be unprecedented opportunity to rebuild the roster with talented COVID cap casualties that are content to go with the "new" Houston.
flackcatcher
February 12, 2021 at 05:47 pm
Ownership a mess. Most of what's going on is the owner cleaning his own house first. Whispers are the usual suspects, but Wolf being very high on his list and yes reaching out to Gutekunst again. (Which is tampering, but his contract expires in 2022 I think) We'll know after he finishes with the front office. He and his advisors don't want to make the same mistake the second time. As for the roster, there is talk of a complete teardown and rebuilt no matter who the GM and HC is. At the end of the season, the locker room was so toxic it was hard to know who was coming back. Could be a hard couple of years for Texan fans.
packerbackerjim
February 12, 2021 at 06:55 pm
Not sure what you mean by malcontents. As far as I know, both Watt and Watson are good citizens and good teammates. Using leverage to escape a dysfunctional situation is sensible.
CheesyTex
February 12, 2021 at 11:44 pm
Malcontent: A person who is dissatisfied or making trouble.
My comments do not in any way refer to the personal character of Watt, Watson or any other Texans player.
The context of my remark refers to Watson's dissatisfaction with the Texans' organization and his use of leverage to make trouble for them.
I was just thinking Ownership must certainly realize the situation they are in, so why not allow all players who want to escape the "dysfunctional situation" to walk just as they did with JJ.
Stroh
February 12, 2021 at 10:48 pm
Itx a very poorly run organization. Top to bottom. Houston has made itself into a shit hole! They disenfranchised the 2 leader of the team and drove them out of town! Has nothing to do with the players!
Thegreatreynoldo
February 13, 2021 at 01:13 pm
Watt is 32 and played for $15.5M and was scheduled to play for $17.5M, all cash. No dead money. Bad team. $14M over the cap. No first or second round picks in 2021; their first pick is number 67. Widely assumed that Houston would cut Watt, which they did to get to +$3.3M under the cap. Only UFA of note is Will Fuller (but I don't really know this team).
Thinking it wouldn't take much to pry Brandin Cooks as he also is all cash with $12M in cap savings. Cooks is 28.
Whitney Mercilus, age 31, is overpaid. His $10.5M base is fully guaranteed, has $4.5M in other dead money, with a Cap hit of $12M and negative cap savings of $3M. Needs to be traded, but probably can't even be traded. Not a bad player though down in 2020.
Randall Cobb, age 31, is overpaid. His $8M base is fully guaranteed, has $4M in other dead money, and a negative $1.7M cap savings. Needs trading, and he'd not bad, but missed the last 6 games with a significant toe injury all the while Houston is years away from being good. Probaby can't be traded.
What do you do if you have an elite 26 year old QB, the rest of the team is pretty bad, no draft picks, no real cap space, can't even clear that much space, and can't look to get much better until 2023? Some of your current pretty good players will be 30 to 33 by then.
Damned if I know. Dump David Johnson for $6.4M in savings. Keep Watson. Beef up the OL and play all offense. At least it might be entertaining. Offensive line kind of sucks too. geez.
Coldworld
February 12, 2021 at 11:40 am
We have quite a number of picks to start with. I’m not sure the number of needs is as large as imagined. It’s more a question of how the draft falls relative to them. I could see movement both ways but I don’t see a move to significantly increase the number of picks. We are not in rebuild and have starters in place for most positions beyond CB. I do think this is a D led draft.
jannesbjornson
February 12, 2021 at 02:06 pm
Get two picks in the first round.
mattgsx
February 12, 2021 at 02:44 pm
Agreed. This could be a good year to restock on developmental prospects but it is unusual to see your rookies make much impact year 1, and even then it's usually just a couple. If GB doesn't love anyone at the end of round 1 they could potentially play with their picks to end up with 3 in round 2, or potentially 2 each in rounds 2 and 3, but this won't be a year where they can double dip in round 1 where you're more likely to find week 1 starters with lower downside.
RCPackerFan
February 12, 2021 at 12:07 pm
Just for a reference if we traded the 29th pick down 5 spots that would get us roughly a mid 4th round pick in return.
Depending on who and what is available, I would consider doing it. An extra 4th round pick could come in handy. It could be used to trade back up with another pick, or just kept to draft someone with.
Some recent Packer 4th round picks -
(no 2020 or 2019 4th round picks)
2018 - J'mon Moore
2017 - Vince Biegel, Jamaal Williams
2016 - Blake Martrinez, Dean Lowry
2015 - Jake Ryan
Some other 4th round picks since 2015 -
Za'Darius Smith, Tyler Ervin, Joe Shobert, Eddie Jackson, Tarik Cohen, Marlon Mack, Tony Pollard,
Obviously many others, but these are some of the names that stood out to me that most people probably know or have heard of.
If they can get a really good player 5 spots back, I make the move. But if they have a player they love I stay and make the pick.
dobber
February 12, 2021 at 12:11 pm
This draft will be more of a crap shoot than any draft in recent memory...college teams that didn't play, college teams that played limted schedules, players who only started emerging or playing well at the end of their limited schedule, DI-AA teams that didn't play DI-A competition, ...the list of limitations to game film and evaluation is a lengthy one.
My speculation is that there is going to be a larger number of really good players (as judged by what they do in the NFL a few years down the road) than normal, and that there will be more draft misses late in the first and into the second rounds than normal. This might be the year where--if your evaluation process is sound and you trust your process--those 3rd-5th round picks might carry a lot of value.
RCPackerFan
February 12, 2021 at 12:49 pm
Great point Dobber!
Maybe having extra picks will be better in the long run!
I do agree that there will be a lot more players slipping through the cracks and there will be more players having better careers in the lower part of the draft then previous years.
It will be interesting to see how this does play out 3-4 years down the road.
packerbackerjim
February 12, 2021 at 01:46 pm
I will take a contrarian stance and posit moving up will more likely insure it is not a bust. Last year I was known to covet J Jefferson and knew there was no chance in hell he would fall to GB. This year Parsons or Pitts are two I believe to be “can’t miss”. Rest assured Gute will not be moving up, not a swing for the fences guy. It is not a criticism just an observation.
Coldworld
February 12, 2021 at 07:39 pm
Unless you expect one to fall to the mid 20s, the draft capital would be enormous. Gute has been willing to trade up but at some point the cost of doing so in the first round bites hard.
Coldworld
February 12, 2021 at 07:41 pm
Fair point, though I think those rounds will have players who are overrated too.
Razer
February 12, 2021 at 12:14 pm
I think that this would be a great year to drop down in the draft and pick up an extra 2nd/3rd plus change. Given the state of college ball last season, there should be a fair amount of players who fall through the cracks. Guys who didn't play, played fewer games or played hurt will be hard to judge given the COVID affected season. If you have a solid scouting staff, this would be a good year to have those extra 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks.
dobber
February 12, 2021 at 12:16 pm
Great minds think alike, man!
Some of them even think like us!
flackcatcher
February 12, 2021 at 05:52 pm
The ghost of Ted Thompson smiles....
Dzehren
February 12, 2021 at 11:33 pm
GB is already picking # 28. How far back would you like to trade back? Maybe the third round? The Pack already have 10 picks. How many more do we need?
Demon
February 12, 2021 at 12:18 pm
A team that made 2 straight trips to the NFC title game without a trip to the suprbowl and you are suggesting a trade down? what player that is projected after round 1 do you see would help put the Packers over the top? i would guesss there is not one. Green bay doesnt need another 10 rookies that we have to wait 2 to 3 years to make an impact. Our entire 2020 draft class contributed 16 snaps in this years playoffs. in my eyes that is a complete FAILURE! I cant believe that with the reigning league MVP that once again Gute builds for 3 years down the road,
CheesyTex
February 12, 2021 at 02:07 pm
When your first pick is #29, you have multiple holes to fill, are tight against the salary cap that may be reduced even further, a trade-down makes sense. At #29 the "can't miss" prospects are gone. Instead there is a pool of excellent college players from there through the end of rounds 3 or 4.
But I guess if Trevor Lawrence fell to 29 you'd have to take him...
PhantomII
February 13, 2021 at 04:38 pm
No, you use the #29 pick and 2022 #1 pick and get the best CB or DL in the draft, maybe even ILB. We need quality on Defense, not quantity. Pick #2 for one of those three who on your board is better of the 2 still left. #3
same. The rest are going to be depth. Jenkins can be our RT of the future if someone steps up at C.
Packerpasty
February 13, 2021 at 08:58 am
quit making sense on this forum!!!
splitpea1
February 12, 2021 at 12:34 pm
We're going to have to add a D-lineman sooner or later (sooner!)-- maybe not with the first pick, but a few will be available in Rounds 2-3. That is unless Gute is satisfied with the dynamic duo of Lowry and Lancaster. Whatever Barry decides to do, let's give him more tools to work with here; it would be nice if the D-line was, for once, a strength of the team.
stockholder
February 12, 2021 at 01:07 pm
Using several Draft simulators, I believe you are correct. This draft has a lot of talent. And because of covid. A lot of players didn't get a GOOD Look, per scouting. (Or play a full season.) If Gute can get extra choices in the 2nd to 4th rd. It's a win. Just about every position of "need" is there. If he goes up. It should only be for a Franchise DL. And if he goes back. He'll get a starter everywhere. I'm serious. Every where between 2-4th. The centers are there. The Rbs, the Wrs. The DL help. And finally a lot of Cbs. And if Shields became a starter, Tramon Williams, and Al Harris did it. The pickings could yield dividends for years.
Lare
February 12, 2021 at 02:52 pm
Sounds good in theory, but Gutekunst does not trade back in the draft. He trades away picks to move up (see Burks, Savage, Love).
It is what it is.
Turophile
February 12, 2021 at 06:17 pm
I would say that it's more accurate to say Gutekunst will move both ways, depending firstly on how the draft progresses and secondly who his favoured draftees are and where he sees them going.
Additionally, there is the influence of tiers, and where Gute sees each tier starting and ending. If he sees (for example) nine guys available in the highest remaining tier when his original pick comes up, he could deal to move back six spots and still have a choice of three guys in that tier.
Finally, if he sees a higher tier ending a few picks before his pick is due, he might be tempted to move up. I guess that also depends on how much he likes the guy he moves up for.
Any movement up or down is only meaningful if Gute is relatively accurate in how he slots players. No two GMs will rank players the same, doubly so as the fit for any player partly relies on the scheme that team runs, making any player more valuable for some teams than others.
Johnblood27
February 13, 2021 at 08:32 am
Trade with NO? Alexander? Wasnt that a trade down, then back up to get the guy he wanted AND NO 1st pick following year?
Great moves by the way...
Lets not get too selective in our memories, give the guy some credit where he deserves it.
TheKanataThrilla
February 12, 2021 at 03:42 pm
The last time we traded down from 29 and picked up an extra 4th round pick didn't work so well. Sorry dead horse I had to beat you again.
All I am saying is if Zaven Collins is sitting there at 29 I sure hope we draft him. He is my early draft crush.
There are also a few NTs projected around our draft position which I hope we consider as well.
jannesbjornson
February 12, 2021 at 09:37 pm
Collins is a player. A big guy that can move and cover. P.Smith is probably gone and Collins would fill his spot.
Johnblood27
February 13, 2021 at 08:33 am
When it comes to Z...
There can be only ONE!
Packman60
February 13, 2021 at 10:39 am
If I remember correctly the Packers traded out of the 1st to draft Jordy. That seemed to work out pretty well for them. The Packers made a huge mistake trading out of the 1st for King as it was a case of drafting for need instead of taking the BAP.
Demon
February 13, 2021 at 01:28 pm
Yes it did work out well drafting Jordy. 3 years later it did. Can we get someone who maybe could cotribute as a rookie please?
TheKanataThrilla
February 13, 2021 at 04:53 pm
True, but the extra 4th round pick amounted to nothing. Jordy ended up being way better than Dustin Keller who the Jets traded up for thankfully.
PhantomII
February 12, 2021 at 09:42 pm
We need a top notch OT, CB and DL and ILB. You're probably not getting any of them at #29. I would never move down unless the talent level at that point is poor, which is where it usually goes down. I'm good with using 2021 and or 2022 1st rd picks in this draft to get us the players to help get us to the show and win. It's time we fix this RT spot for the next 10 yrs. I want us to restructure contracts and get enough money to get an above average starting CB opposite Alexander and a good Vet DT next to Clark. A fast/ twitchy Slot WR as well.
If we move up from #29 I'd rather it be for OT/CB/DT/ILB.
stockholder
February 12, 2021 at 11:11 pm
You really won't like the Ots early. After Spriggs. Why? Next Cbs. All Most 20 cbs are rated between 50-100.
Dzehren
February 12, 2021 at 11:13 pm
If GB trade’s back, the Pack will be out of the first round all together. The talent pool starts dwindling after pick 15- 20. Then more grading between tiers of players
It’s very difficult to trade back when Gute has the 28th pick in every round.
The author is acting like GB has a top 10 pick with big trade value attached to it. Then this would make sense.
Packman60
February 13, 2021 at 10:35 am
I actually agree with the premise of the article. You wouldn't want to force the issue, if there's a player at #29 you love, you go ahead and make the pick, but after the 1st 15-20 picks there is a noticeable drop off in talent. The strength of the draft appears to be in the 2nd -4th rounds. They have enough needs that getting an extra pick in this area could benefit them. i.e. D-line, OT, CB (I would like to see them pick two) ILB, slot WR for jet sweeps, and Edge. As far as any team wanting their pick, if the Alabama QB makes it past Chicago and New Orleans someone could trade up for the 5th year option, also there's a number of teams early in the 2nd round who will likely be looking for RB's and someone may feel the need to get back into the 1st to get the back of their choice and again have that 5th year option. Entiane and Harris are two very different backs and a team could have a strong preference of one over the other. Play around with draft simulators as the author did there's a couple other sites that offer this as well as the one he mentioned. It enables you to get a much better feel for the realities and likelihood of certain players being available when the Packers would pick.
kbrinkmann
February 14, 2021 at 04:43 pm
"after the 1st 15-20 picks there is a noticeable drop off in talent. The strength of the draft appears to be in the 2nd -4th rounds."
BINGO. That's exactly why I could see Gutey trading up into that 15-20 range to get his guy, and then down to get more in the muddled mid rounds. Will it be that easy for every scouting department to parse who belongs in the Top 75 vs who belongs in the 75-150 range? Should be a wild variance of opinion this year. Might find higher quality players fall.
Lare
February 13, 2021 at 02:14 pm
It all comes down to if Gutekunst plays the draft or if he gets played.
kbrinkmann
February 14, 2021 at 04:40 pm
Here's my ideal scenario/strategy for the 2021 Draft:
1) In light of the bizarre, Covid-altered 2020 CFB season, it's probably harder to evaluate second tier players this year than ever. If a GM has faith in his scouting department's ability to find gems because of this situation, if he believes his scouts will have a better read on the talent pool than the scouts of other teams, trading to get more 4th and 5th round picks could put him in a good position to find players that might have been 2nd or 3rd rounders in other years.
On the other hand, that risk also makes the value of those 2nd and 3rd rounders go down, since it's harder to split hairs about who's a 50-100th best player and who's in the 100-150th range. The more cracks at the bat, the more chances you can take on opt outs or guys who missed time in two straight years.
2) Even with Covid making a scout's job more difficult, since there will be less evidence to go on, usually the best players are the easiest to scout. It's not terribly difficult to tell how good the players picked 1st-20th overall, or so, will be. That's usually where teams find their greatest rate of success. It's also, not coincidentally, where amature draftniks have the most success in predicting which order players will get drafted. Once you reach the high 20s and the 2nd round, every year is full of surprises and the evaluations of players start to deviate dramatically, hence "that was a terrible reach," for every other pick.
Because Gutekunst has traded up in each of his first 3 drafts, trying to get one of the players he's rated at a level higher than the rest of the prospects on his board, or sensing an oportunity to grab a guy falling farther than he anticipated. Chances are, most of his elite grades will start getting picked early this year too, though teams will draft QBs and OTs and reach for needs sooner than expected, as happens in the 1st round every year.
What if Gutey traded up with New England at 15th overall to take a surprisingly falling Waddle, Smith, or Pitts? Those three would transform our offense, making it nearly impossible for defenses to match up.
What if Gutey traded up for a dynamic ILB after being told how key that position is to the defense Barry wants to run?
It's possible Gutey fools everyone and picks at 29 this year, but I hope not! I wouldn't be surprised if he looked at his roster after Free Agency (where we could potentially add a handful of bargain priced free agents, in an inflated market of Covid-Cap casualties) and decides he doesn't need ten rookie draft picks, especially with his success in the UDFA market.
TL;DR I hope Gutey trades up for an elite prospect in the middle of the 1st, and down out of the 2nd and 3rd into the 4th and 5th rounds for more cracks at the bat, in a year where talent evaluation is trickier because of Covid disruption.
stockholder
February 14, 2021 at 07:38 pm
The only guy that he should trade up for is Barmore DT AL. No Wr will replace Adams. Trading down later in this draft is a mistake. And if Gute has OT @29 on his mind. Take the 2 and 3 if someone wants to trade up. He'll get everything he needs if he does. But is it "Win Now" ? No we know it isn't.
Leatherhead
February 14, 2021 at 05:40 pm
Google The Losers Curse. It’s a long, boring, scholarly paper that makes some great points in favor of trading down. You can usually get a player just as good a half a round later. Teams overvalue choosing early, and the best values are in the second round, so the wise investor would take advantage of that.
MavenTestProject
February 17, 2021 at 02:15 am
Hello. Interesting topic but let us give it new life. I am sure that online casinos are part of many lives
https://casinosanalyzer.com/casino-bonuses/uptownaces.eu . For me, as an experienced casino, a player is the obvious choice for use because of its cashable bonuses or 1 hour of free playing.