How Much Is Jordan Love Worth?

Front office ponders what to offer him.

It was Halloween day of 2008.  The Green Bay Packers were heading into the bye week after having played seven games.  New starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers had gotten off to an encouraging start.  He began the season with wins over division rivals Minnesota and Detroit.  Then came three losses in a row to the Cowboys, Buccaneers and Falcons.  But Rodgers rallied the Pack to a win on the road in week six at Seattle, and followed that up by outdueling the legendary Peyton Manning for a victory at Lambeau Field over the Colts. 

The record was 4-3 and the front office had seen enough.  They made the decision to commit long term to their new starter.  They signed Rodgers to a six year extension worth an average of $10.5 million per season.  Laughable now, but at the time it put him in the top twelve among quarterbacks in the league, despite being so young in the position. For the Packers It was a gamble to be sure.  Rodgers was not even halfway through his initial campaign as a starter. 

The move turned out to be brilliant.  Rodgers continued to improve, and led the Packers to a Super Bowl title two years later. Over the course of the contract, as other quarterbacks constantly reset the market, Rodgers’ deal became the bargain of the century over the next half decade. 

One of the close observers of that critical decision to extend midway through the 2008 season was a new hire in the front office.  His name was Russ Ball. He had just recently been brought in as vice president of player administration and player finance.  In another part of the building at 1265 Lombardi Avenue, a young member of the scouting department took notice as well.  Brian Gutekunst was working his way up through the ranks of personnel management. The unqualified success of that early extension gambit made quite an impression on both. 

 

Flash forward to the present.  Ball is now executive vice-president and director of football operations.  Gutekunst is the general manager.  Together they face a situation uncannily similar to that which the team was confronted with sixteen years ago.  Rodgers went on to a hall of fame career and has now been replaced by Jordan Love.  After a shaky start, Love played the final ten games, including two in the playoffs, as well as any quarterback in the league.   

As was the case in 2008, the talent is obviously there, but the sample size is small.  Do they jump in with both feet on Love, extending him to a long contract for elite money?  It was the right move in 2008, but is it the right move now? 

For one thing, it’s a bit of a different league now, almost totally quarterback-centric.  If you don’t have a franchise signal caller, you have no chance.  As a result there is even more pressure to lock up a promising talent sooner than later.  The system is such that waiting to extend has become risky.  The player may choose free agency if you wait too long.  If you franchise him, he becomes extremely expensive and you don’t get the flexibility to frame the contract to be salary cap friendly. 

So it seems certain Green Bay will offer Love an extension as soon as he becomes eligible after May 3rd.  On Thursday Gutekunst told the beat writers the team will be working with Love’s representation on an extension over the next few months.  “ We’re really excited to build around him” he said.   

Which brings the front office to the next matter:  How much to offer him?  Here are the current top twelve average annual salaries among NFL quarterbacks: 

  1. Joe Burrow  $55 million  

  1. Justin Herbert  $52.5 million 

  1. Lamar Jackson   $52 million 

  1. Jalen Hurts  $51 million 

  1. Russell Wilson  $49 million 

  1. Kyler Murray  $46.1 million 

  1. Deshaun Watson  $46 million 

  1. Patrick Mahomes  $45 million 

  1. Josh Allen  $43 million 

  1. Matt Stafford  $40 million 

  1. Dak Prescott  $40 million 

  1. Daniel Jones  $40 million 

Ball and Gutekunst must figure out where Love fits in that staircase.  Outside opinions abound.  Vinnie Iyer of The Sporting News wrote “The sweet spot for Love would be around $45 million per season. At 25, he's younger than Prescott, Jones, Stafford, Carr, and Rodgers. However, Love is more unproven than those young veterans in their primes who are getting paid the most at the position.” 

Dallas Robinson, writing for Pro Football Network, states “Even if the Packers aren’t willing to go to $55+ million, Love probably shouldn’t consider anything below $50 million per year. A four-year, $202 million extension would put Love at $50.5 million annually (just behind Hurts at $51 million), while Hurts’ $110 million in full guarantees should set Love’s baseline.” 

ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported in early January that the Packers intend to make Love one of the highest paid quarterbacks in the game but was not specific in terms of numbers. 

There are alternatives.  The Packers could offer a shorter contract, say two or three years.  That would give them an earlier out if Love regresses.  But the shorter the deal, the less cap-friendly it will be.  And if Love excels, they will have to extend him again after a season or two and pay him much more in a completely new deal.  They could also simply let him play out the last year of his current contract and take their chances re-signing him or franchising him if he continues to improve. 

Of course, the wild card is we don’t know what Love’s agent is telling him.  Considering the hype around his client during this off season, he may be advising the former Utah State star to demand top dollar. 

It all makes for fascinating drama this spring.  Will Ball and Gutekunst repeat the gamble that worked out so beautifully sixteen years ago?   They have about three months to think it over. 

 

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__________________________

Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.

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NFL Categories: 
6 points
 

Comments (50)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Ferrari-Driver's picture

February 02, 2024 at 12:09 pm

Well you clearly point out the options and the associated pitfalls. That decision and the consequences of making it will fall clearly on Gute and Ball who are being paid the big bucks to make it and be correct. I'm just a plain old Packers fan and anything I say is like whistling in the wind; in other words it's way above my pay grade.

I will say this: The Giants loved the play of Daniel Jones and gave him a big contract only to have him regress badly after a good start. I don't really expect this with Jordan Love, but it's something that should be taken into consideration by the big brass as they make the decision. As I said earlier, that is why they are paid the big bucks to make those decisions and will have to live with the consequences. As a fan, I sure hope they make the correct one and also hope we have a potential third Hall of Fame in the making with Love.

2 points
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stockholder's picture

February 02, 2024 at 12:15 pm

I would make him the highest paid QB in the "division".
plus incentives.
MVP,Super-bowl, Division champs etc.

2 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

February 03, 2024 at 09:08 am

I very much think contracts should be tied to performance rather than guaranteed money over 6 years. Let him earn top dollar, but also give him the option of winning via leaving cap space to have a winning team. It's either / or, not both.

0 points
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splitpea1's picture

February 02, 2024 at 12:45 pm

Lock him up. He has the potential to be better than some of the QBs on that list. LOL, I'm pretty confident we won't have to worry about him turning into Daniel Jones!

3 points
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GregC's picture

February 02, 2024 at 12:50 pm

The biggest risk would be to give him a lowball offer or no offer at all. Then they would risk losing him altogether. So I think the offer should and will be in the $45 million to $50 million range. Note how young the top two QBs on the list are. Burrow is 27 and Herbert is 25. Love is also 25.

2 points
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Brewcity_BearsFan's picture

February 02, 2024 at 01:15 pm

Couple of things jump out at me.

1. Love will likely get more then Stafford, less then Mahomes (I could be wrong)

2. Holy Shit. Mahomes is an effing steal at 45 Mil a year. Dude maybe just over a week away from 3 rings in 4 tries. Out pacing Brady.

2 points
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DoubleJ's picture

February 02, 2024 at 01:51 pm

"Holy Shit. Mahomes is an effing steal at 45 Mil a year. Dude maybe just over a week away from 3 rings in 4 tries. Out pacing Brady."

Remember that is average per yer. His salary cap number the next 3 seasons: $57M, $60M, and $63M.

5 points
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jhtobias's picture

February 02, 2024 at 01:24 pm

The problem with these numbers what arw the guaranteed numbers those are what really matter.

If you low ball him not good but he hasnt proven he is a top 5 quarterback yet.

If were just lookung at averages like above I would say between russell wilson average and kyler murray average .

Depends if he wants to bet on himself or take the generational wealth right now.

Think Davante Adams last contract with the packers

-1 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

February 02, 2024 at 01:32 pm

1. Gotta have a franchise QB
2. Gotta pay that franchise QB
3. Once you pay that franchise QB, it’s tough to continue to build around him
4. This whole thing would be easier if Love could marry a supermodel
5. Anybody know any single supermodels? Send her a friendship bracelet and tell her it’s from Jordan

9 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

February 02, 2024 at 01:36 pm

Obviously in jest there at the end, BUT: is it true that in the salary cap era, no team has won a SB with a QB accounting for more than 13% of said cap?
Man, I’m glad to NOT be an NFL GM!

5 points
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DoubleJ's picture

February 02, 2024 at 01:52 pm

"This whole thing would be easier if Love could marry a supermodel"

Or Love could say I will take less money to make sure that you can keep a top team around me so we can win.

2 points
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Untylu1968's picture

February 02, 2024 at 02:34 pm

Exactly! How much money does one man truly need to "survive"?

2 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

February 02, 2024 at 04:22 pm

The answer is all of it. You need all the money.

-1 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

February 03, 2024 at 09:14 am

This is what I'm hoping will happen. Does he want top dollar or a winning team? It's either / or, not both. If he set the team standard of $20MM is a LOT of money to play a game you love, the Pack would have a dynasty.

0 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

February 02, 2024 at 07:25 pm

That would be far less silly.

1 points
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mnbadger's picture

February 02, 2024 at 01:38 pm

Sorry Ken, but I couldn't disagree more.
You stated "It all makes for fascinating drama this spring." I say BS!
This isn't fascinating to me, it's haunting.
It puts us right back where we were multiple times over the past 10 years which culminated in having the highest paid (arguably most talented) most pretentious, self-centered prick for a team leader imaginable.
This does not fascinate me, it makes my blood boil.
JL10 is good, could become very good. Some great throws and decisions on tape.
He's also young and very inexperienced.
Many poor throws and bad decisions on tape as well.
He has yet to walk on water. I prefer we wait until he proves he can do it before we anoint him as the savior.
See the list, especially Daniel Jones. Cap hell for the giants.
There's a whole bunch of other really good football players on this TEAM. Let's keep the team intact, working toward the goal of constant improvement and team success.
No more prima donnas please.
Save money for major depth upgrades and extensions, when earned, for trench talent.
$50+ million per year? I'd spend the money elsewhere and get a game manager at QB.
GPG!

-1 points
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DoubleJ's picture

February 02, 2024 at 01:54 pm

"See the list, especially Daniel Jones. Cap hell for the giants."

Daniel Jones never had as good of a season as Love had last year.

5 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

February 02, 2024 at 02:23 pm

Not only that, Jones never had a 3 TD game in '22 and only four 2 TD games. He did rush for 708 yards but we can see what that led to.

6 points
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Swisch's picture

February 02, 2024 at 05:09 pm

I largely agree, mnbadger, about not getting carried away with Love -- although I wouldn't part with him lightly.
I'd take a risk with him -- based on what he's already shown on the field -- and offer him a contract something like in the top 10-20 at quarterback, but not at or near highest paid.
I want guys on the Packers who want their teammates to get paid, too.
That's especially true of Jordan Love as our main leader on the field. What a great example it would be if he took a respectable but restrained contract, and then said he was doing it for the other guys on the Packers who are all necessary to take the team to a title.
To be a champion, we need to be strong at as many positions as possible.
***
In almost all cases, I'm highly reluctant to make any player on the Packers the highest paid at his position.
I want to pay our players generously -- but all of them, not just some of them.
I realize that stars should make more than the others, but not with crazy disparities.
Plus, I want guys to play for the Packers for more than just the money.
To some extent, I understand going along with what other teams are doing; at the same time, the Packers also have to dare to be different in order to be exceptional as a winning team -- in the case of salaries, making it clear that they're going to be more than fair, but not extravagant, and spreading the wealth of the salary cap across the roster.
***
I've been a big supporter of Jordan Love since he was drafted, and stuck with him during the difficult days of this past October when others seemed ready to move on from him.
I'm super excited about Love as a player and a person, and dearly hope he is with the Packers as our star QB for the next decade or more.
Then again, I don't think the Packers should be so desperate as to sign Love, or any other player, at any cost.

1 points
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1.5
TheVOR's picture

February 02, 2024 at 01:39 pm

As I have stated here, countless times, my concerns around this contract are huge. Top 10 money for a guy who is effectively played excellent for eight games isn’t enough of a sample size in my opinion. It could turn out to be a great contract. It could also turn out to be Kyler Murray.. I wish they were working on the extension about midway through next season rather than now. I understand why they want this player signed I get it. I’m just concerned that he could as likely have a fall off next year as he could build on it and be great. if he falls off and becomes 10 to 15 or 10 to 20 ranked quarterback next season, it’s a bad contract. This is my biggest concern going into the off-season.

4 points
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Leatherhead's picture

February 02, 2024 at 01:41 pm

Big numbers make my head hurt.

This is a link to the QB contracts for this past season.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/

Burrow makes $55M/year. He's gone to a Super Bowl
Herbert and Jackson make over $50M, and have not.
Hurts has, and Russell Wilson has, but Kyler Murray and DeShawn Watson have been stealing money.

Then you have Mahomes and Josh Allen. That's everybody making over $40M. How many of them ARE top QBs? Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins both made over $35M for not very much at all last year.

I think Love is a bargain on a 5 year, $50 year deal. We'll probably have to go higher than that. I'd also start the search for his successor, because the Packers have shown they can draft a QB when they don't need one and develop him. I think that's the only way to avoid ending up with a 30+ year old QB who is a huge drain on your cap.

We held onto Favre, and Rodgers, for 10 years AFTER their last Super Bowl appearance. I'm wondering if there's a better way of doing this.

2 points
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DoubleJ's picture

February 02, 2024 at 01:58 pm

"I think Love is a bargain on a 5 year, $50 year deal."

I don't think you could get by paying someone $50/year anymore. That is like early 1700s wages...lol

2 points
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Leatherhead's picture

February 02, 2024 at 04:06 pm

Yeah, the proofreader didn't catch that.

3 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

February 02, 2024 at 04:43 pm

The cap is going up. Jordan's contract will be for more money than Burrows. It's the market, no need lamenting it. Tua Tag is going to make over 50M and that's going to be the bar for Jordan.

So my advice to all Packer fans is to not worry about contracts. They are what they are and there are people who are paid to make all the numbers work. It's really not our money.

0 points
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mnbadger's picture

February 03, 2024 at 01:25 pm

I'd offer 4 year extension at 80 no more than 100.
Guarantee most if not all.
Generational wealth to a very good young player who should continue to improve.
If he does, he goes crazy then.
Keeps the roster strong for a while at the same time.
JMO
GPG!

1 points
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GB@Germany's picture

February 02, 2024 at 01:47 pm

Hope they can convince him, to leave some money on the table, to build the SB team around him. This and a backloaded deal with high incentives would keep a 2 or 3 year window open. Rings build legacy, not $$$.

3 points
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LeotisHarris's picture

February 02, 2024 at 01:58 pm

Insiders at 1265 are reporting that Russ Ball has upgraded to the Microsoft 365 version of Excel for Love's contract process. They're noting Ball's willing to go to the maximum on void years, and is seriously considering pushing, rolling, and perhaps even sliding the can down the road to make this work. Unnamed sources are saying Ball has a supply of midnight oil, and has been seen and heard thinking outside the box. The mantra within the facility reportedly is "Worry not, we're not idiots."

What is Jordan Love worth? Assigning a specific value to a human being is a complex and subjective matter that involves ethical, moral, and philosophical considerations. In economic terms, the value of an individual may be assessed based on their contributions to society, skills, and talents, but reducing a person's worth solely to economic productivity neglects the broader aspects of human existence. IMHO, those who paid Daniel Jones and Deshaun Watson need to check-in to a darkness retreat and stay there, or be shot into the sun.

2 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

February 02, 2024 at 02:27 pm

Does Ball listen to some Jimi Hendrix while working on Love's contract all alone?

2 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

February 02, 2024 at 04:28 pm

Daniel Jones is worth what he got paid. So too will Jordan be. They make what the market allows. Is Taylor Swift worth a billion dollars. The answer is a resounding yes.

You're worth whatever you can get yourself paid. Too few people realize that.

The NFL is the most valuable property in entertainment - the performers deserve more than the owners...

-3 points
3
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mnbadger's picture

February 03, 2024 at 01:34 pm

my comments should not be viewed as an "is he worth it?" question.
I'm saying I don't think we should pay it.
It's viewed as sexy in today's game to have the star qb.
What's even sexier to me is having 50 or more talented guys, playing well and playing hard, under top notch coaching.
Football can be a beautiful team game.
I'll watch golf if I want to see talented individuals compete on the highest stage.
GPG!

1 points
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Turophile's picture

February 02, 2024 at 02:36 pm

I am calling it as $51m per year on average, maybe 52.

-2 points
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zoellner25's picture

February 02, 2024 at 02:38 pm

Daniel Jones salary is everything wrong with sports dear lord

6 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

February 02, 2024 at 04:29 pm

Why do you hate America?

-3 points
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jont's picture

February 02, 2024 at 02:51 pm

First off, I'd be really happy if could leave out the void years or any other cap land mines that would complicate efforts to sustain a wining team in future years.

Second, about Love, we know he's good. He has flashed the potential to be very good. No, he's shown better than that; he sustained top level performance steadily throughout the second half of the season.

All of that gets the GM to the table happy to work toward agreement.

And all of that in today's NFL gets a pretty good contract-- not top money, not $50 mill, but way up there. $40 million?

And what if that potential comes through? What if he delivers exactly as he expects to and as we all hope?

Then pay him what an elite QB gets-- incentive based bonuses, escalators, and all that to run him right up the top of that list.

GB must pay the man what he's worth right now and in years to come. A nice five year deal with enough guaranteed money to please him.

1 points
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SwedeBayPacker's picture

February 02, 2024 at 03:47 pm

"If you don’t have a franchise signal caller, you have no chance."

Brock Purdy says hi. The outlier? Maybe.
Tell that to Lamar and Dak.

2 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

February 02, 2024 at 04:30 pm

If you don't think Brock Purdy is going to get paid you have a significant think coming. I got news for you, Justin Fields is going to make $40M. Tua is going to set the bar for Jordan Love. Tua is going to get PAID.

1 points
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mnbadger's picture

February 03, 2024 at 01:36 pm

I don't disagree, I just don't want us to do it.
GPG

1 points
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lecko's picture

February 02, 2024 at 04:36 pm

Knowing what kind of contracts Ball is giving to players who are very good, but not among absolute top at their position or game changers (Alexander, Gary, Clark) I suspect he will make Jordan the highest paid QB. I think Jordan probably deserves to be among top 12 paid QBSs and I am glad that he played so very well, but in crucial moments, like 4th quarter vs 49 ers and some others he also made some head schraching throws to well covered receivers and too many throws of backfoot. He has all chances to improve on that but I think contract also must reflect on those deficiencies

4 points
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NFLfan's picture

February 02, 2024 at 05:16 pm

There must be a way for Green Bay to ask for a larger sample size before they sell the farm?
Both sides seem to be operating from good faith.

5 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

February 02, 2024 at 05:23 pm

The market determines the contract. It's a business. The owners could collectively bargain to put more money into player contracts, but they're greedy sons of bitches.

You don't see Roger Goodell offering to give back salary to hand off to players. No one pays to see Roger Goodell or Jerry Jones on Sundays.

-1 points
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1
Doug_In_Sandpoint's picture

February 03, 2024 at 08:13 am

I actually would pay to see Jerry Jones. Crying in his skybox as the Packers kick the Cowboys’ butts.

3 points
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NFLfan's picture

February 02, 2024 at 05:36 pm

QB's are overpaid and it hampers the team. There should be a ceiling.

2 points
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Oppy's picture

February 03, 2024 at 12:39 am

Owners of NFL franchises don't seem to think so, because they keep on paying these QBs.

What this tells me:

Top tier QBs increase franchise profitability more than a balanced team that wins does, OR it's not true that QB salaries significantly hamper chances of team success

Depending on the resolution of the above items:

Fans, generally speaking, spend more money supporting their team when they have a top tier QB regardless of how the team's overall ability to succeed is affected, OR Fans have no basis for the claim paying QBs large contracts hamper team success and are probably just jealous that a guy gets paid mind-numbing numbers for throwing a football

1 points
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mnbadger's picture

February 03, 2024 at 01:40 pm

mic drop from NFLfan!
Just look back at the positive results that came from the rookie contract limits.
Benefited the entire league.
A few smart people should be able to sit down and come up with a similar type of solution.
GPG!

1 points
1
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Johnblood27's picture

February 02, 2024 at 06:21 pm

could we possible think... and act... outside the box a little bit?

The restrictions and pitfalls of a huge salary for one player on an NFL team are placed there by the NFLPA, owners and the salary cap which BOTH sides agreed to.

In a TEAM sport, making teammates compete for the same dollar is counter productive to TEAM success.

Some want Love to take a cap friendly deal so the TEAM can be vrought along with him as winners in a TEAM sport, I do too.

How about this?

If Love were to take a team and cap friendly deal, leaving some salary cap dollars on the table, could the Packers agree to clauses like:
1 - no more than X% unspent cap rolled over into the next season (a common occurrence, something like 2-4%
2 - Team spending including rollover at 100% cap allowance - players getting paid to stay and build, not being siphoned off due to one high salary.
3 - Love getting a % of the cap that places him no less than top 15 in the league
4 - bonus dollars for TEAM goal achievement like division crowns, NFC championships and Super Bowl wins. NOT MVP's or Statistical leadership.

That would leave dollars on the cap that the Packers MUST spend in support of the TEAM and Love's success.

Without a guarantee that the team will spend any "team discount" from Love on talent that will actually HELP Love, why would he leave any crumbs behind?

Why leave any crumbs at all? In order to actually have a chance to WIN in a TEAM sport.

A key to winning in a TEAM sport is sacrifice. In the NFL it is unheard of for a player to sacrifice any money, but many, many highly paid players do indeed lose.

4 points
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Oppy's picture

February 03, 2024 at 12:45 am

Comment in reference to #1 and your comment "That would leave dollars on the cap that the Packers MUST spend in support of the TEAM and Love's success.":

Let me remind you that the Packers are a not-for-profit organization. There is literally zero incentive for the Packers to cut down / be frugal with salary cap. There's no owner who pockets the spare change. The only reason the Packers exist is to play winning football and ensure their own continued viability. The excess either goes into the coffer for the future or is dispersed throughout the community.

In short, you don't have to worry about the team spending in support of the team.

2 points
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Johnblood27's picture

February 04, 2024 at 01:09 pm

yes, BUT IF that assurance were there IN WRITING, that would certainly go a long way towards building TEAM chemistry.

If the QB were to show some concern for teammates and their share of the pie, guys would absolutely run through a wall for that guy.

1 points
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jont's picture

February 03, 2024 at 02:35 pm

in reference to #1 and your comment "That would leave dollars on the cap that the Packers MUST spend in support of the TEAM and Love's success.":

The NFL has a salary floor. It is a nulti-year average, I believe, and something like 90% of the cap. Also negotiated with the union, of course.

2 points
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ricky's picture

February 02, 2024 at 08:27 pm

The marketplace will decide what Love is paid. That means he'll probably end up in the area of $45-55 million per year. But what is more important is how the contract is structured. Will it be more team friendly? Would it make sense to front load it heavily, so when the guys who are under rookie contracts now come due, there will be room to sign them? The team does need to upgrade at some positions, and hopefully they can do that through the draft, rather than sign overpriced free agents.

1 points
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Since'61's picture

February 03, 2024 at 11:26 am

There is no reason for the Packers to rush into a deal with Love this offseason. He has a contract for 2024. I would wait and see how he performs for at least the first half of the 2024 season. He has started 20 games for the Packers up to this point. 1 in 2022 and 19 in 2023.

Let's see where he is at after 8-9 more games in 2024. Before committing large cap numbers let's make sure that he does not regress in 2024. If Clements does not return in 2024 Love could regress.

The Packers should not be in a rush to return to the point where they can't sign FAs to build a contending team around Love. At least not yet. Thanks, Since '61

0 points
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