Could the Packers Select a Running Back Early?
With the future of the running back position being in question, could the Packers invest some early draft capital?
By GregMeinholz
I know what you're saying. "Never select a running back early, they don't last as long as most positions and aren't worth the big investment." Well, you're right, it's true, the average career span of an NFL running back is only 2.6 years. That's 0.7 years shorter than the average career length of an NFL player. If a running back is successful, they'll at least play out their rookie contract. If they're very successful, they'll maybe hit eight years, but it'll be a long road full of many bumps and bruises. But sometimes for a team that finds that guy, it's all worth that big investment.
In the 2023 NFL Draft, there were two running backs taken in the first round. Bijan Robinson was taken 8th overall by the Atlanta Falcons, and Jahmyr Gibbs was taken 12th overall by the Detroit Lions. Robinson was expected to go pretty early and turned in a pretty decent rookie season finishing just 24 yards short of a one thousand-yard campaign and also had four rushing touchdowns next to 487 yards through the air with four more TDs. Gibbs on the other hand was considered a bit of a reach at 12, but he arguably had a better season than Robinson turning in 945 yards on the ground for 10 touchdowns and 316 through the air for one more score. If you ask Atlanta or Detroit how they think their first-round investment turned out after just one year, they'd tell you "pretty good."
But now let's turn our attention to our Green Bay Packers. In the last 48 hours, courtesy of Tom Silverstein, we found out that the Packers are working to restructure the contract of star running back, Aaron Jones. Jones' cap hit will be pretty hefty in 2024 at $17.6M and the Packers will try to break that up a bit to have some more room for anything else they need. Yes, words like "could be released" have been tossed around, and it's scary, but let's be honest, the Packers want Jones back in 2024. Jones likes being a Packer and has restructured in the past, I'm not going to lose sleep over it until the very end. It will get done.
After Aaron Jones, however, we find ourselves in a tough spot. As much as it pains me to say this, I believe AJ Dillon has played his last down for the Packers. I could be proved wrong with a sudden deal reached but it just seems unlikely at this point. So, the Packers find themselves with a very thin running back room. Besides Aaron Jones, we have Emanuel Wilson and that's essentially it. We need to think of the present and the future. The Packers will likely use one, if not two of their 11 picks in the 2024 draft on a running back. It's just a matter of when, and who.
Who to Draft, and When
Unlike 2023, there aren't any running backs that are expected to break the first round. If you ask some predictors, they might not even break the 2nd round. However, the recent draft combine results may have changed that.
Trey Benson of Florida State came into the combine perhaps projected to be an early third-round pick. But at 6'1, 215 lbs, his 4.39 40-yard dash certainly turned some heads. Pile on his Relative Athletic Score being at a 9.78 out of 10, and suddenly he's flirting with a second-round status. Benson finished 2023 for the Seminoles with 905 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns including 227 yards through the air and another trip to pay-dirt. Benson is considered a tough downhill runner who can perhaps take on a feature-back role. He fits the Brian Gutekunst RAS score mold and with two picks in the second round of the draft, I wouldn't be surprised to see Gute take a shot on Trey Benson. He wouldn't need to be a feature back early especially if Aaron Jones is still on the roster. But Benson could be a perfect "pick up where he left off" back for Aaron Jones as he could command some attention in Jones' absence, and possibly take over that feature role down the road.
After Trey Benson, there are several other backs I could see the Packers drafting, Jaylen Wright, Isaac Guerendo, and even Jonathon Brooks with a clean bill of health. But none would make me happier than the Packers drafting former Wisconsin Badger star, Braelon Allen. Allen's entire career all we would ever hear was "And he's only X years old!" Yes, Braelon Allen's break-out came when he was only 17 years old. And he won't turn 21 until his rookie season is almost completed on January 20th. This is something the Packers have often valued. And for the running back position, it's not a bad idea. Draft them as young as possible so their window is hopefully larger.
Being a great downhill runner who could take over in the AJ Dillon-like role, Allen could fit the mold for what the Packers need. He will likely be a third or fourth-round talent that could develop into a bigger role in time.
In 2017 we saw the Packers double down on running backs in the mid-rounds selecting Jamaal Williams in the 4th round and Aaron Jones in the 5th. I can honestly say I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2nd round and a 5th round running back this draft. Some may find a second-round investment to be too high. Especially considering the pick of AJ Dillon at the position only to be in the same spot four years later. But I think getting your hands on a good running back can be the difference between winning vs losing. If the Packers have a super bowl window of 4+ years, than I will take that rookie running back that may only have 4-5 years in the tank and hope we get the best we can.
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Greg Meinholz is a lifelong devoted Packer fan. A contributor to CheeseheadTV as well as PackersTalk. Follow him on Twitter @gmeinholz for Packers commentary, random humor, beer endorsements, and occasional Star Wars and Marvel ramblings.
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Comments (120)
mrtundra
March 03, 2024 at 07:19 am
Braelon Allen would be a good replacement for AJ Dillon, who is about to hit FA. We need someone who can spell Aaron Jones, on occasion. A guy that was mentioned on CHTV with Nagler and "Big Mac" was Rasheen Ali out of Marshall. Ali has a similar running style to Jones and can he picked up in the 6th round. He may be a draft sleeper. There is video of him on youtube, if you'd care to take a look.
GregMeinholz
March 03, 2024 at 07:54 am
Ali would be a good one as well. Honestly, there are a lot of decent backs in this draft. They’re not first round must-gets but there’s a lot of meat at the position for the mid/late rounds. I could easily see a RB pick between rounds 2-4 and another late that could still make an impact.
Coldworld
March 03, 2024 at 08:43 am
The testing that Allen did do, broad jump and vertical, suggests he’s going to need one heck of a pro day to illustrate some kind of explosion. Dillon fared much better at the combine in both.
Allen’s performance is going to hurt him. His testing has him almost in the “maybe he’s a full back” range.
LLCHESTY
March 03, 2024 at 09:03 am
MarShawn Lloyd is the closest thing I see to Jones in this draft. A little stouter and a hair faster. A lot of similarities in their feet before hitting the LOS.
LambeauPlain
March 03, 2024 at 07:25 am
Showtime Jones is returning and I can see an incentive laded deal focused on availability, not necessarily production. When he's on the field, he consistently produces running, receiving, blocking and LEADING. He will be handsomely paid and will stay in Green Bay.
Having watched nearly all of Braelon Allen's plays, he has many of the attributes Dillon has as a change of pace power back...and more.
Allen has been a productive college receiver which bodes well for him as a Packer. His size, 4.4 speed, and uncanny balance and ability to lower his pads to get additional yards is sublime.
His fumbles are a bit of a concern (9 over 597 touches)...several were after he had a good gain and was stretching for more yards.
Is he high on the Packers Board as one of the 3rd rounders? With AJD likely gone, he may be. 4 year rookie deal would be good for the cap too.
I expect two RBs drafted.
Guam
March 03, 2024 at 07:51 am
I dunno about Allen LP. As a UW alum and avid Badger fan I would love to see him succeed in the pros. You mentioned his fumbling as a concern and I would add two others: (1) his injury history as he missed a number of games as a young running back and (2) his agility or lack thereof.
Allen has speed and size, but rarely makes opposing tacklers miss as he does not seem to have a quick change of direction. I think this also ties into the number of games he has missed - he takes a lot of punishment when he runs. The Packers need to draft a running back, I am just not sure it should be Allen.
NickPerry
March 03, 2024 at 10:18 am
"Allen has speed and size, but rarely makes opposing tacklers miss as he does not seem to have a quick change of direction."
Totally agree Guam...Plus, after watching Dillon run up the asses of his O-Linemen for the Packers the last 4 seasons, I don't want to see a repeat performance by Allen for another 4 years. Allen hasn't tested real well either so MAYBE if he's there in the 6th or 7th take a flyer on him, but address the position earlier too.
Leatherhead
March 03, 2024 at 01:07 pm
Let's remember that as a #2 back, Dillon put up over 800 yards of offense per season, didn't miss time with injury, was good in pass protection, and didn't fumble the ball.
I'd be fine with another 4 years of that. But I think the Packers would be better off with one of the Top 3 RBs in this draft, and we can get one at #58.
Agree on Allen, but I'd be surprised if somebody didn't take him on Day 2 based on potential alone.
murf7777
March 03, 2024 at 11:12 am
I agree with your assessment on Allen. Unfortunately, the injury history is mainly nagging pulls and tears to his muscles and tendons. Soft tissue year after year, doesn’t bode well. Now, if he’s still there in the 5th round I’d take a stab at him. He will probably go in the 4th, but due to injury history it wouldn’t surprise me if he dropped.
Leatherhead
March 03, 2024 at 01:00 pm
Murf, on virtually every prospect board, Allen has been stuck at around 90 or lower. You would think that a guy with his size would rise a little on potential alone, but he hasn't, and I think it has to be because when you study the tape on him he shows why he won't go earlier.
I would peg him as a 4th rounder, too.
Here's the deal: The Packers are thinking Super Bowl, and they should. And if Jones gets hurt in Week 2, Week 7, Week 11, whatever, then our hopes and dreams are going to rest on the shoulders of his replacement because the RB is half of our offense, and you saw that without Jones, our offense wasn't as good.
So I'm really zeroing in on getting a top guy, and not pinning my hopes on a Day 3 guy. I think there's three top RBs in this draft...Brooks, Benson, and Wright and at least one of them will be available at #58 and we should take them.
Take the versatile OL at #25, Graham Barton, because he's a guy who could start at and improve a couple of spots. Then at #58 we get the back who's going to be lining up next to Love for the next 4 seasons. And at that #88 or #91 pick, we should get another starting caliber OL. You can get some really good Centers yet, to back up/replace Myers, who is in the last year of his contract.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 03, 2024 at 02:30 pm
I like this strategy!
If that translates into our S and LB are still a weakness this season, it also means JL10 is probably not having a career ending injury and our offense is putting up serious points.
It also gives current defensive players a chance to continue to develop, and maybe Gutey finds some more value picks. 2025 still gives us a chance to add to a more complete roster ...
Leatherhead
March 03, 2024 at 04:41 pm
There’s always going to be weaknesses, but it’s your strengths that win games.
I watched the Packers go on the road in the playoffs, against a top defense, and score six TDs by rhe end of the third quarter, and IMO, we should try to turbocharge this offense, because flaws in other areas won’t matter as much if we’re hanging 30.
If Love is hurt, he’s not playing or practicing, and we’re not improving. So the priority should be better protection and a capable guy lined up in the backfield next to him. And we can do that, in this draft, without even using the picks we got in trade. Two quality linemen and a top tier RB and we’d be in business with a really strong offense
murf7777
March 03, 2024 at 03:24 pm
Your right he is figured to go in the 3rd or even 2nd by some. I wouldn't risk it. I agree getting a RB is important, not sure I'd do the 2nd thou, I'd take two, one in the 3rd and one later.
This was 2022 draft.
Hall - #36 463 yds in 7 games
Walker - #43 1050 yds
Cook - #63 507 yds (one I wanted them to take, but he went too soon)
B. Robinson #98 - 800 yds
Pierce #107 - 939 yds
Allgeier #151 - 1035 yds
Pacheco #251 - 830 yds.
I think the draft has a lot of talent at RB, similar to 2022 where you don't have to use a premium pick.
dblbogey
March 03, 2024 at 07:10 pm
I like it, though at 88 or 91 maybe safety or CB if we haven't addressed it. It sounds like we're going to need a quality rangy safety under the new DC and we've got nothing right now.
Duneslick
March 03, 2024 at 02:04 pm
4.4 speed ? Did not run the 40 at the combine 4.6 something maybe. players dont do drills they will do poorly in and then with help on pro day do better
SSJ
March 03, 2024 at 04:28 pm
Allen is no where near capable of running a 4.4 forty. If he was he would have run the 40 at the combine. He has lost whatever speed he ever has.
HarryHodag
March 03, 2024 at 07:42 am
I'm a fanatic on Wisconsin football and I've seen every game Allen has played in college. His first season with the Badgers was a revelation. Power, speed, burst, amazing for a 17 year old. He became a target the next season and the yards didn't come as easily but made almost as many yards on more carries. This past season I noticed he was larger than the previous two seasons. He was nicked up most of the year but with sheer guts keep carrying on. I thought he had lost a step or two after gaining the weight. He had improved his pass protection and was targeted much more in the passing game.
Allen would be a help, but I think he would be much more effective with a weight loss, helping to restore his quickness.
I would select Trey Benson ahead of Allen. Benson is a game changer. They need a starting level running back but Benson might edge out Allen.
LeotisHarris
March 03, 2024 at 08:15 am
That's a fair and accurate assessment, harry. It's fortunate Allen's bulked-up frame was there to take all those hits, but. man, he did take a pounding last season. I know he'll be a successful back in the NFL, just not sure for how long. I guess that's true of all RBs. Helluva way to make a living.
Yes, that Packers *could* select a RB early. They won't.
Leatherhead
March 03, 2024 at 09:36 am
Interesting prediction, Leotis. I'm going to bet you half a can of Pabst that the Packers take a RB on Day Two.
PhantomII
March 03, 2024 at 10:32 am
I think RB is 1 of our #2 picks and another late rounder. Our WR group is set, our TE group could use another...but not a must. Personally, I want to fix the Secondary in FA with a stud FS. 1st round OL Mauler upgrade . 2nd RB and another good Safety/ CB. We have 3-ILB's so I would rather have a box SS next to them but our new DC wants 3-LB's. If we want that fixed..we may have to pick-up a FA LB or bump RB to RD 3....But I would not. Seems like some of the RB's put themselves into upper round 2 territory. Benson/Brooks/ Shipley and Wright ...any 2 will do, but I don't think any of them make it to round 3.
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 08:59 am
Harry, being a Hawkeye I have suffered through all of the great RBs Wisconsin has had. What an amazing run of greats from Ron Dayne , Melvin Gordan, Jonathon Taylor to name a few. I am glad it took a Hawkeye, Barry Alvarez to turn your program into a powerhouse, HAHA.
All kidding aside, some fans has said Allen was injured a lot. You said he was nicked up a lot. What kind of injuries did he have and were any serious?
HarryHodag
March 03, 2024 at 10:21 am
Mostly the worst kind of injuries a running back can have: leg injuries.
Simple physics when they get hit by 250 pound missles with an attitude.
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 11:33 am
It seems like bigger RBs, Derek Henry is the example, always get tackled by a low hit to the knees or ankles. TEs get the same treatment and it shortens their careers. I was listening to NFL network yesterday and they were talking about this very thing. Saying a rule change has been proposed to take that away. I am not sure how you do that though.
Is Allen damaged goods already and has minimal value? Has he had any serious knee injuries or any surgeries? If not, he sure seems like a perfect replacement for Dillon, an actual upgrade and he is young. His pro day 40 will go a long way to determining where he is picked, I think he is projected late 3rd to the 5th now. Depending where we could get him, I still think he would be a steal.
My favorite bigger back is Guerendo and his combine performance probably pushed him into the 3rd round and I would take him there. It will all depend on if the Packers really want Benson, Wright, or Lloyd @ #58. If they do, then a RB in the 3rd is out.
A player that will really fall if he doesn't regroup at his pro day is Audric Estime-Notre Dame. His combine 4.71 40 yard dash killed him but could make him a 5th or 6th round steal if we want a power back later. Dillon Johnson-Wash will also fall with the 4.68 he ran, and he could easily fill that role.
Those 2 haven't suddenly forgotten how to run fast, so they will bump up a little if they run well at their pro days.
LLCHESTY
March 03, 2024 at 09:08 am
Kendall Milton is a power back that didn't get a ton of usage at Georgia. Big question with him is pass catching, not a lot of opportunities for him. If the Packers are satisfied he can catch he'd be a good late pickup, he'll pop people for that extra couple yards.
https://twitter.com/TheHfootball/status/1764192489882243310?t=ZUVhbWINqe...
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 11:36 am
He was another who damaged his draft stock when he ran 4.62 @ the combine. A bunch of RBs will have to be faster @ their pro days or they will become late targets. And catching the ball well seems to be a strong part of most of these RBs this year. Thats good for us for sure as they have to be part of the passing game.
LLCHESTY
March 03, 2024 at 11:07 pm
Had 1.51 10 yard split, tied for the fastest time among RBs. The other two RBs that ran that were under 200 lbs. I'm not worried about him running for 40 yards, I just want him to get 3 yards on 3rd and 2. His explosion will help with that. Doesn't hurt that he doesn't mind popping guys for an extra yard or two. He'll likely be a 6th or 7th rounder too.
Coldworld
March 03, 2024 at 09:11 am
Trey Benson is going to get picked early now. That sub 4.4 speed at his size makes him by far the most intriguing prospect and his jump suggests explosiveness. A player teams will see as a big play threat who can run outside and in. Some team is going to take him early despite some injury history.
After that, Guerendo may actually be the kind of back we will look at mid draft. He’s similar to how I see Wilson, some speed and wiggle and decent size. Jaylen Wright is a similar prospect as is MarShawn Lloyd.
Tyrone Tracy might be a candidate to back up Jones. Smaller, decent speed and burst and very good hands. All of these are 3rd to 5th round types in my view though, at best. Dylan Laube is a small school Jones type who might be a good 3rd day pick.
One guy who remains interesting as a later pick is Estime. Slow 40, but good explosiveness, which, along with power, is critical in a big back. Not a big play candidate, but a guy we might see as a source of hard yards. Probably early day 3. Isiah Davis is a small school guy I could see as a late pick option for this role too.
Overall, I don’t see a great class and I don’t see many going early to anyone, let alone us.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 03, 2024 at 02:38 pm
All day Ray can make big plays, TDs, hard yards, etc. The guy's all heart, a fierce competitor.
stockholder
March 03, 2024 at 06:31 pm
I agree with you - 3rd rd.
If only Davis could block -
Or did you forget the trouble MLF
had with the kid from ND.
;;;;
Dexter Williams?
Coldworld
March 03, 2024 at 10:43 am
He tested at ten pounds lighter than expected apparently. It may have been a mistake because he still showed a worrying lack of explosiveness in his jumps. There could be a connection, but his pro day is going to be critical for him.
The other overlooked issue with Allen is his struggles in protection. Such a big, powerful guy should have no physical issues, but he really seems to be heavily challenged detecting the threat. He has similar problems finding gaps with the ball, not trying to just overpower.
In this LaFleur led O, the power back has to be good reading the D and picking up threats and neutralizing them. If not they’d rather just play a non threat who can. Likewise, our OL isn’t going to make lots of big gaps, it requires vision and patience to find them and burst and agility to hit them. Dillon showed us that. Allen just seems a dubious fit.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 03, 2024 at 02:32 pm
Allen came into the combine 10 pounds lighter than his listed weight this past season.
stockholder
March 03, 2024 at 07:43 am
Last year I wanted Robinson;
just so we wouldn't have to pick
one this year.
And the more I read Dillion won't be coming back.
The more I don't care if he does.
The RB test totals; look great.
And when you pick one out.
How can you not compare them to Jones?
So the more you watch the top guys, tape.
They just don't measure up!.
For me it's a pass.
Replacing Jones this year isn't happening.
There is No equal.
Draft and development.-
The Later the Better.
If not NEXT YEAR.
EnemyTerritory
March 03, 2024 at 07:51 am
Yet again I almost agree with you. Hard pass on a RB early in what is described as a weak RB class. Gibbs would have been my target tho. Draft a RB day three and bring in lots of UDFAs.
stockholder
March 03, 2024 at 08:36 am
If Gute trades up for Mitchell CB.
The more you kiss a Rb goodbye.
Because the 25 and 58 pick go- for 15.
It also brings in a OL at #41 or none.
Because=
He then must commit a 3rd rd to safeties.
15 Quionyon Mitchell. CB. Toledo
25 Traded
41 King Sua OT BYU
58 Traded
88 Jaden Hicks. S WA
91 Cole Bishop. S. Utah
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 09:10 am
Trading up would be the worst thing GB could do. Giving up valuable draft capitol for a really good CB when we can still get a really good CB @ #58 is bad business. It will cost us something big from 2025, at least our 2nd round pick if not our 1st rounder, because we will more than likely have a better record and later pick in 2025. Add some later picks this year.
Sua probably is gone too in that scenario too, and any shot at another good OL.
So we mess up the whole draft and next years too for one player. Nope.
Skip the tradeup and grab Melton, Jackson, Hart, or probably 3 others @ #58. That way we can pick Sua @ #25. I would also bet it would be #41, not #58 that they would want for #15.
stockholder
March 03, 2024 at 09:21 am
I followed the Points /trade chart.
I agree it would be bad to trade up.
DeJean should fall to them now.
Nubin wants to be a Bear.
I doubt Gute takes a guard early.
Coldworld
March 03, 2024 at 05:33 pm
Let’s see where DeJean is health wise by his pro day. There’s no guarantee picking him is not picking up a guy with injuries similar to the one Stokes has missed over a year with. I’m not going to get excited till I actually see he’s fully recovered to the point he can at least compete in underwear.
murf7777
March 03, 2024 at 04:31 pm
Hmm.....trading up worked pretty good when they did it for Clay Matthews and more recently Jordan Love. If Watson would just stay healthy I believe we would of got great value there as well. I know most of us fans, I do also, like all the extra picks, but if the men and women who do this for a living see great value than by all means do it.
jannesbjornson
March 03, 2024 at 09:53 am
Pretty sound, but Bishop will go in the second round after his 40. I would use 2025 picks to move on Q.Mitchell. He may be in the top ten, unless some GMs value RTs over shut-down corners...
stockholder
March 03, 2024 at 10:10 am
Yes - I'm using the current Boards I'm seeing.
But this remains the best safety class in years.
I used Mitchell because of Alexander etc.
King Sua was the BPA for LT @41.
DeJean is Nixons replacement. /S
The harsh reality is if you want a safety.
He shouldn't trade his picks in the second.
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 11:53 am
Jannes, why do you always want to wreck our next years draft by trading away future picks? We will really need to draft Kenny Clarks future replacement next year and the DT group looks super strong in 2025. So we will really need our 2025 first and second round picks to fill our top 2 needs next year @ DT and Edge.
Mitchell is good, but so are the guys we could pick @ #41 or #58. That kind of trade would require # 25 and one of #41 or #58. Plus a top 2 pick next year. Do you really think he is worth that? He won't be top 10 pick anyway because of teams trading up for QBs. Nix, Penix and McNamara really helped themselves by throwing at the combine.
Lets just let the draft fall to us @ #25 and see if King Sua or one of the QBs is still on the board. Then we will have a win-win decision to make.
jannesbjornson
March 03, 2024 at 01:23 pm
Ask Lynch why he does it in Santa Clara. You can recover picks with Player trades if necessary. Q. Mitchell is the top CB. Reload, not Rebuild. They currently have Jaire, add the other shut-down guy.
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 01:46 pm
That's a pretty risky way to use the draft. I will bet the percentage of that working is pretty low. And costly. One player won't get us over the hump. And then we lose out next year when we need the picks.
jannesbjornson
March 03, 2024 at 02:41 pm
Here's another risk: King over T.J. Watt, followed by Josh Jones...
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 03:27 pm
No, that was just a bad pick. It happens 50% of the time.
By the way, how did last years draft go?
jannesbjornson
March 03, 2024 at 10:36 am
Sunday Sermon: Protect Love & Stop the Run
# 30 Jordan Morgan LT Arizona
#46 T Sweat DT Texas
#58 Caelen Carson CB Wake Forest
#88 Cole Bishop S Utah
#93 Payton Wilson LB NC State
#118 Jaylen Ford LB Texas
#127 Dillon Johnson RB Wash
#131 Javon Solomon Edge Troy
#134 Malik Mustapha S Wake
#150 Isaiah Davis RB SDState
#164 M McCormick OG SD State
#168 Javion Cohen OG Miami
#204 Ovie Oghoufo Edge LSU
#216 J.Whittington WR Texas
#243 Anthony Gould KR/PR OR State
Free agents Kendall Fuller @ CB Willie Gay @ LB
Q.Mitchell should be the highest rated CB after the track meet.
The other guys are lightweights and will not tackle.
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 11:59 am
Sorry to rain on all of you Sweat lovers, but I would bet Sweat is off our board after he $hit himself at the combine. His RAS was 4.10. We can stick a fork in him now. He also looked like he needed a bra, badly. 2025 is the year to draft a DT. A way better and deeper class, especially run stuffing DTs like Sweat.
jannesbjornson
March 03, 2024 at 12:59 pm
He is on the TOP of the boards as the Run stuffing Defensive Tackle, posting a 5.27 40. He will be faster at his Pro Day. He knocks people Backwards. Just ask the Washington O line. They already have the light DTs to play around him. How was the run stopping in Packertown, LLC during crunch time in the fourth quarter the past 14 years? A low RAS score is a Complement, in his favor. He will be around 350-355 lbs by the start of League Play.
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 01:52 pm
And he will still need a bra. How many players with 4.10 RAS scores has GB picked in the last 5 years? If GB fixes the LB and Safety issues through FA and the draft, the run defense will take care of itself. If I was considering taking a DT, and I am not, I would choose Braden Fiske-FLA State. 6'5 320lbs and ran 4.78. And he isn't a tub of goo.
stockholder
March 03, 2024 at 12:13 pm
25 Cooper DeJean S. Iowa.
41 Nubin (No # yet) S.
58 Khytee. Jackson. CB. O
88 Cole Bishop. S Utah
91 Nathaniel Watson ILB Miss
126. Denatre Prince. CB. Ole
166. M. McCormick. OG SD st
203. Ryan Watts DB Texas
215. Jawon Briggs. DT. Cinn
242. Dylan Laube. RB. NH
250. Jase McCLellan RB Al
jannesbjornson
March 03, 2024 at 01:08 pm
Some are putting Nubin at the low end of Rd. One. Kinchens will post better numbers at his Pro Day. He is the Instinctive FS who will smack people. I think it will be low 2nd RD for Bishop, or top of Rd.Three. Vaki probably goes in the fourth. There will be a run on CBs and Safeties in RDs1-2. You can draft RTs in the mid-rounds. Ask the Jets how they feel about Meki Becton, taken as a ONE PICK !!
jannesbjornson
March 03, 2024 at 01:19 pm
A secondary rebuild is necessary, but I still would put cash on Kendall Fuller to be the Slot guy. Sounds like they want Campbell to stick around. Briggs is under-rated.
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 01:58 pm
It's tough to fill all the needs especially the top 5 with upgrades isn't it Stock. Especially when you mock like you did with the original 11 picks. But I would have taken a better RB than those guys @ #125 where there still should have been some good ones left.
Neither of those RBs fill the power back role and honestly I thought Laube looked way over his head in the Senior Bowl. I don't know much about Watson, the LB. What are his skills?
stockholder
March 03, 2024 at 02:39 pm
Yes- You need a ILb at some point.
And if you miss Edgerrin Cooper.
And take a OT. @41.
Then you really have to draft one later.
Nubin should go higher and be the #1
safety. Per 40 time.
Laube has the hands to catch.
@ Senior -Bowl and return man.
golfpacker1
March 04, 2024 at 08:44 am
I really like the LB from Kentucky, Trevin Wallace. Pretty fast and he has a lot of gifts. He doesn't tackle as well as we need, but Hafley can teach him. And he is probably picked after the 3rd round.
My favorite is stlll Junior Colson-Mich. He is a real 3-down LB. If Wilson didn't have multiple knee surgeries, he would be the pick.
Sign Wagner, White, Gay, or Cashman as a FA, and draft a Colson or Wallace.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 03, 2024 at 02:46 pm
We need to invest in O line MUCH more heavily than that.
stockholder
March 03, 2024 at 03:31 pm
Gute says Back seven.
Any OT after top 50
will end up inside.
Best bet is RT
And lets stay away from the Tweeness.
stockholder
March 03, 2024 at 04:33 pm
The OL 40 times are coming in.
Four guys I liked -
Roger Rosengarten @122 WA. SB LT/ RT
Cooper Beebe @58 Shocked w/5.03
Christian Jones RT Tex. @ 91 5.04 Smoking!
King Sua OT BYU 5.04
jannesbjornson
March 03, 2024 at 09:33 pm
Rosey is a turnstile when facing a fast edge guy. Pass. Beebe could be at the top of round two. I would take him over a RT if some are sniffing round one for an O line guy. I like Morgan as the LT to replace Bhak. Move Wallace to RT and let Tom go inside. Remember Wallace gave up six sacks and was pressured on stunts. I like his moxy, but he's not the long-term solution on the left flank.
LLCHESTY
March 03, 2024 at 08:58 am
What did semicolons ever do to you that you have to abuse them like you do? I feel sorry for the poor things.
stockholder
March 03, 2024 at 09:09 am
Buy a Bombe / Enigma machine.
Coldworld
March 03, 2024 at 09:14 am
I think we already have one of those
LLCHESTY
March 03, 2024 at 10:48 am
Apparently he thinks he does. To me it's just punctuation; butchery.
Oppy
March 04, 2024 at 12:12 am
I just looked back at two different drafts you proposed last year in the days before the 2023 draft, and in none of them did you have the Packers picking Bijan Robinson or attempting to move up for him. You did say you thought he was great RB, but you exclusively had Nolan Smith (Edge/LB) as the packers top draft pick.
Furthermore, you didn't have a single HB targeted in your mock drafts. The only running back you had the Packers taking was a flyer in the 7th round on Hunter Luepke- a Fullback.
Doesn't really seem like you were so concerned about making sure the Packers didn't have to pick a RB this year.
stockholder
March 04, 2024 at 05:54 am
Correct - It was a trade -up or fall scenario.
I took Smith to go with Walker and the 4-2-5.
Mock 5.0
I was concerned about Dillion Leaving.
Dillion is more like a Fullback.
And we were only going to carry 3 RBs.
The PS was the back-up.-
This year - Nobody is a investment.
Safety is a bigger need if people leave.
And those are the positions you draft first.
I would sign a Free Agent RB -
If were all in again.- Swift?
Rory P Scrotem
March 03, 2024 at 08:38 am
So Riddle me this Packman. What would it take for the Packers to "retain" their # 1 pick in the draft (# 25) and also obtain the 1st round # 12 pick. What would the Pack have to give up...via trade and/or draft choices? I'm dreaming here but can you imagine the Packers drafting Brock Bowers. Crazy you say...think about it. Add Bowers to the tight end room and put Kraft (a former running back) in Deguara's spot. What would we have to give up? Possibly Christian Watson & a draft pick or 2. But think about that tight end room. Holy Schmitt!!
stockholder
March 03, 2024 at 08:52 am
#12 = 1200 points
#25. = 720
#41 = 490
#58 = 320.
Just NO.
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 09:20 am
Why in the world would you waste draft capitol and waste a premium pick on a TE? Let's see, we drafted 2 really good ones last year who might be as good as Bowers. And I will throw this out, Stockholder or Dobber always legitimately bring up there are only so many touches offensively to go around. Who are you taking them away from?
It would be the same foolish scenario if I said let's trade our first four 2024 picks to move up for Marvin Harrison. Why not? At least he is a fabulous player, not just a really good one. But the WR room just like the TE room is already a team strength, so why not fix the other weaker player groups with the picks we have. And not destroy the 2025 draft as well.
Packerpasty
March 03, 2024 at 11:06 am
it would take Gute's being on some drug...not going to happen..
jannesbjornson
March 03, 2024 at 01:27 pm
Sinnott and Cade Stover are better fits as move TE/HBs without wasting a One Pick.
BAMABADGER
March 03, 2024 at 08:55 am
Aaron Jones was/is a better 3rd and one/two yard runner than Dillion. The 9ers, Lions, Chiefs don't have the "incredible bulk" runners and get the job done consistently in short yardage situations. Jonathon Brooks, Texas, Trey Benson, Florida State:, Jaylen Wright, Tennessee have excellent vision, power, and wiggle. They all are good receivers and pass protectors. Each would be a complement to Jones and a potential long term solution at RB. What a coup to get two of them like we did TEs Musgrave/Kraft last year.
Consider Rasheen Ali - Marshall, or Isaiah Davis - South Dakota State in later rounds.
As a Badger, I also wish Allen well as a Pro. My concern with him is his college wear & tear (frequent leg/shoulder injuries), and ball control. He has strength and speed, but lacks the wiggle to make tacklers miss.
Coldworld
March 03, 2024 at 09:28 am
Montgomery is the hard yards guy for the Lions surely? Pacheco isn’t an obvious power guy physically, but his ability to run through tackles last year was a big part of the Chiefs getting to the Super Bowl. You don’t have to have a huge back but you need a big enough physical one to get through the season.
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 09:47 am
Benson, Guerendo, Wright, Lloyd, and Ray Davis all helped themselves with their 40 times at the combine.
Bucky Irving, Jawhar Jordan, Isaiah Davis, Blake Corum, & Cody Scrader lost ground-slower than expected
Audric Estime, Emani Bailey, and Dillon Johnson ran bad 40 times and will have to kill their pro days
George Holani and Dylan Laube moved up a round
Alot of the RBs didn't run 40s so wait for their pro days
A big takeaway is that ALL of the RBs catch the ball really well, it was rare to see a drop, Hand catchers all.
Right now Benson, Wright, Guerendo, and Lloyd lead the rest-probably all gone before #88 so if we want one of these we better use #58. That means no stupid trades up wasting these picks. Give me any of the top 4 @ #58.
I can see a trade back from #25 or one of the late 3rds for more picks, but I think Sua is there @ #25 and would hard to pass. It goes against my any first rounder has to be a starter rule, but he could start this year as OG and move to OT next year.
All other RBs should still be in play late 3rd including Brooks and Ali
If we don't get King Sua or DeJean(more doubtful every mock I see) @ #25, a trade back to early 2nd while gaining another 2nd, or 3rd, and more would really give us 2 more big pieces of pie to fill holes. Like a shot @ a Top 3 RB, or a better Top 8 CB, or a Top 4 LB, or another starting caliber OL.
PackyCheese500
March 03, 2024 at 12:39 pm
I would trade up for DeJean if it comes down to it. He is exactly what the Packers need in the secondary. I would target Center over Tackle; Walker is better than Myers. WV’s Frazier is intriguing in the 2nd. Give Walker some competition in the late 3rd or 4th.
I don’t think RB should be addressed until day 3. This is not a top heavy class, and all the top prospects have their flaws (Brooks/Benson injuries, Lloyd is a fumbling machine). Go volume on day 3.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 03, 2024 at 03:21 pm
Emphasis on the interior O line means there's at least some confidence in our huge OTs at 6'6" 6'7" 6'8" and 6'9". If they're not going to play guys like that, just maybe Gutey should stop drafting in that mold.
Agreed that the difference between the best RBs in this class and the rest is not that great; a lot of them are competent. Creating an O line that is dominant all the way across is more important to our running game.
WD
March 03, 2024 at 10:34 am
I thought one thing the combine showed us is that RB is really deep in this years draft. There were three that ran sub 4.4. The fastest was Isaac Guerendo at a 4.33. He also is a bigger back at 6'1 and 225 lbs. Of course speed isn't ' everything..... unless you are being chased from behind.lol .One back that ran slower in the combine than expected was Blake Corum. However, he has the uncanny ability to find holes out of nowhere. Just watch the film. I loved him at Michigan. However, he is smaller and (surprisingly) slower. Some have rated him the top RB in the class. That said; clearly there are a a number of picks we could use at RB. One thing is clear. For the Packers, having a great RB was instrumental to their success. Needless to say as well for the Forty Niners having McCaffery. So...... we have two picks in the second round and there will potentially be a great RB staring at us. Assuming Dillon Is gone we desperately need another RB early. I would definitely not even consider a free agent unless it was Dillon at a reduced price. Only because Dillon is better than Wilson for the third RB. On offense we need RB and depth on O-line. The rest of picks should be used on finding the best defensive players available. I think our new DC will have the best ideas for who those players should be.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 03, 2024 at 03:34 pm
All good points. I'll just add that all day Ray has the uncanny ability to play his heart out, and turn that into huge gains including getting to the end zone with no one in College being able to stop him. Of course that will not carry over to NFL competition, but there's no one I'd rather see him develop behind than #33. I also think he won't go terribly early, so Gutey might get the chance to pick him.
I won't be heartbroken if he goes somewhere else, but I think his ability is a good comparison for a "value pick" at the position, and there's a lot of talent to pick from.
Irish_Cheesehead
March 04, 2024 at 10:17 am
Blake Corum is a total football player that just wins. Forget measurables. I'd take him any day!
Packerpasty
March 03, 2024 at 11:03 am
Every year Wisc Packer fans want some guy from UW, this year its Allen...I hope they dont pick him there are many better options out there, with Jones age and injury history they for sure need another dynamic back...and no, Wilson isn't it either...
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 12:12 pm
It depends where Allen falls to. He would be a good value in the 4th round, and he is an upgrade on Dillon. He isn't going to have to carry the ball 25 times a game anyway in todays NFL.
Who the hell is Wilson? Do you mean Wright, because he is a stud.
The top 4 RBs would have to be picked with #58 for us to get one. Audric Estime will fall after his 4.71 40 @ the combine. He would fit the power back role nicely and we could steal him now in the 5th.
jannesbjornson
March 03, 2024 at 01:36 pm
Emanuel Wilson, the pre-season sensation.
Leatherhead
March 03, 2024 at 05:59 pm
He's fine as the #3. I wouldn't want to see him as the primary engine of the offense.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 03, 2024 at 03:40 pm
Wilson did more than well enough to have been given more opportunities instead of being benched after having gotten a first down in three consecutive run plays, some of MLF's stupidest playcalling.
You have no way of evaluating #31 Wilson, and neither does Gutey.
Bitternotsour
March 03, 2024 at 04:48 pm
Gutekunst has actually seen Wilson in practice, so he has a far better sense of who he is and what he's capable of. That LaFleur lacked nerve or quality notwithstanding. I thought Wilson looked damn capable in preseason.
Coldworld
March 03, 2024 at 05:29 pm
Wilson is a much better athlete at 226 than Allen at 235 from film and in vertical and broad jumping that Allen tested at yesterday. A power back to get hard yards needs explosion as well as mass and power. In the pros you are dealing with much bigger, stronger, heavier defenders that aren’t going to be nearly as easy to just run through, as Dillon shows. Allen looks more and more like a less athletically gifted if perhaps more aggressive Dillon.
I’m sure he kills the weights, but to me he needs to kill the 10 & 20 yard splits. A decent 3 cone and shuttle would work wonders, but I don’t expect those.
barutanseijin
March 03, 2024 at 03:45 pm
They were right about TJ Watt but otherwise the Packers have done well in avoiding Wisconsin guys. I’m not going to complain about the fifth round pick they spent on Abbrederris.
splitpea1
March 03, 2024 at 11:08 am
I've read repeatedly that Benson needs a lot of work on his pass protection. So MLF may be hesitant to put him on the field. Better hope A. Jones doesn't miss time early so Benson can develop a little in this regard. Besides, I think we can afford to wait until the third round to address this position.
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 12:17 pm
Not if we want one of the top 4, Benson, Wright, Guerendo, or Lloyd. #58 would have to be spent. I can't imagen Benson has had to do a lot of blocking so far in his career, but he is big enough to learn and become competent. Blocking is a needed skill, but that's not what he will be drafted for that early. He will go in the 2nd round because he runs and catches well, and he is fast.
Not as fast as Guerendo though.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 03, 2024 at 03:42 pm
No way does Gutey pick Benson as RB.
Knock on wood.
I think it would be folly to draft a RB that high, and I think he'll be among the first RBs to go.
Coldworld
March 03, 2024 at 05:13 pm
Benson appears to be a willing blocker. Like most college guys, that likely takes some work in the pros because he’s not asked to do it much or to make similar reads, but he’s not shy of contact or commitment with or without the ball. I do think he gets overdrafted now though.
Regardless of who we pick up for the RB room, we need to assume that protection will need a be lot of work and have a concerted off and preseason plan to get them up to speed. LaFleur is going to have to have new RBs out there fire a lot if snaps this year. We can’t wait a year or two for him to be comfortable. He had to find a way to ensure they are ready,
LLCHESTY
March 03, 2024 at 11:26 pm
From PFF on Benson:
"Benson is a little stiff in his lateral movements, lacking some of the wiggle of the other top backs in this class. When carrying the ball, the base of his footwork is narrow, which makes it easier for him to get tripped up."
That sounds a little to close to Dillon to me. Rather find a better outside zone fit.
cheesehead1
March 03, 2024 at 11:27 am
Who knows how our draft will go, tradeups/downs, so many possibilities. One thing I would like for sure is drafting high character young men. I’m confident in Gute. GPG.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 03, 2024 at 03:48 pm
I hope we see that Gutey's recent habit of picking players with injury history and not great production on the field was simply trying to find value picks, and he's done well at that.
GB needs high value players, and to me that means football players; proven on field production, instincts, and not merely RAS. That means higher draft picks, and he has 5 to work with. Plus 6-9 lower picks? I wouldn't mind if he uses some of those to trade up, if he can do it without losing the farm.
It'll be an interesting off-season, with high stakes ...
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 12:19 pm
Lots of good choices. It's interesting and important how the combine changes the views and ratings of the players.
stockholder
March 03, 2024 at 03:57 pm
Why don't you like De Jean?
His Tape is excellent.
He continues to make plays.
He can return the ball.
And he can replace Savage or Nixon.
He's one of the best back 7 guys Gute could get.
jannesbjornson
March 04, 2024 at 10:31 am
A Harrison Smith type of player this team has lacked in the back end since Woodson left for his vineyards.
Leatherhead
March 04, 2024 at 10:52 am
Well, Smith has certainly made the difference for the Vikings.
Bitternotsour
March 04, 2024 at 11:09 am
exactly. he added to their championship DNA. he took them part of the way up the hump. guys like that can't be overestimated.
PackyCheese500
March 03, 2024 at 12:36 pm
I hope not, especially in this RB class. Better to wait till day 3 and select 2-3 players. We learned that lesson with Dillon.
PhantomII
March 03, 2024 at 04:47 pm
If we spend some draft picks on Mauler OL.....Most backs will be better.
honeybadger
March 03, 2024 at 01:10 pm
They absolutely could and absolutely should. Look up the rushing leaders from last year. It's an overwhelming majority of 1-3 round picks. This myth of we can get a good running back in the fifth round is baloney. That rarely ever works out. Everyone still drunk on getting Jones that late. Yes. It happens. Rarely. We have extra picks. Use one on a running back and get a solid player in round 2-3. We are looking for an Aaron Jones replacement. He's old injury prone. He doesn't have much NFL life left.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 03, 2024 at 03:51 pm
O line that dominates all the way across will add more to our running game than the difference between the first RB picked vs the eighth.
stockholder
March 03, 2024 at 04:19 pm
Oh- So A. Jones doesn't help the offense at all?
And who are you replacing on the current OL?
honeybadger
March 04, 2024 at 07:08 am
Did the O-line change when Aaron Jones got hurt and A.J Dillon was running the football? I think we saw a vast difference in our running game between the two with the same O-line. So it does matter whose running the football. That is the flawed thinking of believing running back doesn't matter.
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 01:20 pm
I was aginst this before when I was sure we should take a CB @ #25. We need King Sua to fall to #25 so the OL goes from solid but thin, to a strength. Then we attack the secondary needs to make them a strength too.
The top 4 CBs will be gone by #25, but 3 of the next 6 will be available in the third round. RB is more of a need than CB, especially if Stokes is OK. Or we grab a CB in the 3rd. Melton?
We know at least 1 of our top 2 RBs will be gone soon so it becomes more of a need. One of Benson, Wright, Guerendo, or Lloyd will cost us #58. I would rather pick one @ #58 and get one for sure as opposed to hoping one drops to the 3rd round. Although Brooks will be a wildcard and could make one or two of these fall.
stockholder
March 03, 2024 at 03:46 pm
King Sua is No sure thing.
And No sure starter!
I can't see a OL when we need to replace Savage.
We only need Depth in the OL.
If you take a RT later.
You can move TOm.
Replace whats leaving with better.
After the Top 4 CBs - The safeties are next.
If RB is a "need" you re-sign Dillion.
Don't waste the picks!
Sign or trade for a RB. - Per SF and TT ways.
There is No game changer.
Any RB will sit until ready.
SicSemperTyrannis
March 03, 2024 at 02:21 pm
There are many RBs in this draft class who are probably "good enough." Lots to evaluate beyond the combine measurables. Their game film includes all the complexities of did the system they were in play to their strengths, or did it expose all their weaknesses and not feature them. This can make a better RB look lesser.
Team fit is a HUGE consideration!
That said, I like all day Ray, but I'm not saying I know he's the best fit for GB of all RBs in the draft. Gutey won't get to pick that person anyway so it's irrelevant, I just think he'd do very well developing behind #33. He also should not be among the first 3 picked, I'm guessing. He ran a 4.52, which is plenty fast enough for the position. Seems to be a very sure pass catcher.
I see lots to choose from :)
Leatherhead
March 03, 2024 at 05:51 pm
""Team fit is a HUGE consideration!"""
Yes, but most teams can use a guy who can run fast and beat tacklers. We also need a guy who can be assignment sure and protect in the passing game. And who can hang onto the ball.
I think Benson, Brooks, and Wright all could fill that role. And developing behind Jones is great, but given' Jones' age and history we might want a guy who's ready to do more than develop. Last year, Jones was on the bench for game 2. We should draft a guy with the expectation that he's a starter for us and Jones is the backup.
jannesbjornson
March 03, 2024 at 07:47 pm
Round two, or three has to produce a guy who can step on the field and create yardage via the run and passing game.
golfpacker1
March 03, 2024 at 03:41 pm
Pass catching RBs this year might be the most I have seen ever. Its amazing how almost all of them excel at this. No body catchers either. They look better as a group than a lot of WRs.
The top 4 will be gone before we pick @ #88. If we want one of Benson, Guerendo, Wright, or Lloyd, we will have to pick them @ #58. Brooks could be there @ #88. And there will still be a strong group available at the end of the 3rd round.
We are going to score a couple of good ones this year, 1 in the 2nd and 1 in the 5th.
Leatherhead
March 03, 2024 at 05:58 pm
Is pass catching really that big of a priority for a RB in this system? I mean, we have an abundance of receivers and can certainly put four good receivers on the field at a time. How about a RB who mostly runs and pass protects and catches two passes per game?
If we had Benson, and Jones, and an upgraded front line, I think we'd be a pretty good offense. Benson can hit home runs and kind of reminds me of Jones. Add in a guy like Barton and Van Pran and we're in business.
golfpacker1
March 04, 2024 at 08:58 am
Running the ball is not the only way RBs can gain yardage. Having a RB like Jones is a prime reason to throw the ball to him. I would throw at least 5 passes to RBs every game. Running the ball and getting mauled by 5 huge defenders is way harder on that RBs body than catching a pass, making a too slow LB miss, and getting tackled by 2 smaller guys after a nice gain.
brenner
March 03, 2024 at 06:52 pm
I'm not opposed to drafting a couple resumes, but not before r3. Allen is the one I want for sure. After that another in the 5th or 6th would be good. I see most of the picks this year used on D, especially the early ones.
TKWorldWide
March 03, 2024 at 06:52 pm
In the old days, first round running backs were commonplace. Nowadays, productive backs can come from anywhere. Clearly GB needs to add one or two, but predicting how they’ll do it is a fool’s errand.
Any one of us can be that fool.
cdoemel
March 03, 2024 at 07:08 pm
OMG! STOP making lineman run the 40!!! Why?
TKWorldWide
March 03, 2024 at 07:55 pm
Which lineman?
golfpacker1
March 04, 2024 at 09:03 am
Isn't that the absolute most ridiculous thing ever CD? How many times will the average OL even run 10 yards on a play? Think of the stress that puts on the knees of a man that big. Dump the OL 40 yard dash because it really makes no difference if he runs 4.9 or 5.2. If they run it is a short burst.
cdoemel
March 03, 2024 at 07:11 pm
I don’t know whether to think, OMG!! STOP making lineman run the 40!!! or let it go and weed out the guys prone to injury.
TKWorldWide
March 05, 2024 at 01:39 pm
I think if one lineman runs the 40, then most pf the rest of the linemen will run it too. Maybe a guy knows he’s a little deficient in one area (hand size, arm length) so a decent 40 could bring his stock back up a bit.
gsd3
March 05, 2024 at 05:35 am
I like Wright and Benson but have a gut feeling they will both go in the 2nd round.
Also like Estime as a back of the type Dillon was supposed to be. Not bothered by the 40 time. Some guys just play faster. Numerous example of him out running secondary and not getting caught from behind.
As far as the 40 goes, Aaron Jones ran a 4.56 at his combine.